Sam Gabbert of SGAmmo on the status of Russian ammo

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Phaedrus/69

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Today I got an email from SGAmmo that folks might find interesting. Not political just market analysis from a guy that's been selling ammo for two decades. He explains what's in the pipeline and what he expects for pricing in response, again based on his deep experience. The email:

Thank you for subscribing to the SGAmmo.com newsletter. If you have trouble viewing this email you can see the newsletter at this link: Bulk Ammo In Stock With Free Shipping and My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinionhttps://SGAmmo.us8.list-manage.com/...81b813d32cfdf1986c&id=a79b4a45e7&e=0046830bde

There has been a lot of people asking me about the sanctions on Russian ammo imports put in place by the US state department this past week and what it means for the future of ammunition supplies. There will be more clarity in several weeks when we can see the publication of a Federal Register notice expected on September 7, 2021. The state department announcement can be seen at this page - https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-united-states-imposes-additional-costs-on-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/

My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion - First, I hope you don't 'shoot the messenger' and I'd like to pat everyone on the back and tell them things are going to be okay but that wouldn't be truthful. In my opinion the sanctions are a major game-changer in the ammunition supply chain that is already strained. For the time being and based on what we can see so far, we believe that this will be the effective end of Russian made ammo in the USA as it plays out over the next year or so as import permits expire or are filled to the quantity limits, and in doing so eliminate supply of a huge portion of the ammo in the US commercial market. From what I understand, the USA commercial market consumes around 800,000,000 rounds of ammunition from Russia every year, roughly 800 semi truck trailers worth in a mix of the most popular calibers. For the immediate short term we expect ammo to keep coming in from Russia but I expect the importers to raise prices substantially which is understandable to me given its the end of the lifespan for their business model. The calibers we believe will be most effected are soviet metric calibers like 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and 7.62x54R because there is almost zero available manufacturing capacity for these calibers outside of Russia and what little exists will not make a significant impact in filling the needs of the USA commercial market without Russian ammo absorbing the lion's share. In addition to these calibers, I estimate that the Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country, and large portions of the 45 auto, 9x18 Makarov, 30 carbine, 308 Winchester / 762x51, 380 Auto, 300 Blackout and 6.5 Grendel. I see this as a potentially devastating blow to the supply for of 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger, where the reduction in supply from Russia will be difficult to make up in the short term for other manufacturers who have already been unable to keep up with demand this past year. Consumers who have used Russian ammo regularly will have to move on from Russian made ammo to those other products made elsewhere and in doing so absorb the supply and prolong recent shortages. Again this is my opinion, based on my knowledge of the industry after 20+ years experience, and how things play out over time could be different. For me, selling Russian made ammo is about 40% of my business, and while we plan to source as much supply as we can from other sources, we do expect this to have a major negative impact on supply for 7.62x39, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 9mm Makarov, 9mm Luger, 223 Rem / 5.56 NATO, as well as the other mentioned calibers.

Free Shipping Promo - For the rest of August we will be offering free shipping on orders with $200 or more of merchandise, and a $12 flat rate for orders under $200. To get to the free shipping threshold of $200 you can mix and match different items until the order subtotal reaches $200 or more, or purchase any item over $200. This is a temporary promo through the end of this month as we test the waters of offering free shipping. Depending on how it goes we may continue to extend this offer or make it permanent but for now the offer is only for set for the rest of this month. Below is a list of products that have been popular recently. It has been 17 months straight of the highest demand levels for ammunition ever seen, exhausting supplies of many popular calibers and driving prices up. Many things that were once normal have changed in this time including price and availability of ammunition. All things considered I think we have some decent deals on some calibers at this time. If this newsletter does not promote calibers or types of ammo that you use then future newsletters will as supply allows. We recommend that you stay subscribed even if this product list does not meet your needs, as other products will come in time. We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business and will do our best to serve our clients well in these strange times, so please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters. If you have some spare time please take a few minutes and look over the online catalog at www.SGAmmo.com

Thank you, Sam Gabbert, SGAmmo Owner
 
In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero


Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?
 
Sam has been explaining for the last 6 years or so that prices were at historic lows and now was the time to stock up. Did we listen? Some did, but all wish we had taken greater advantage of the opportunity. Nothing is simple, however, and curtailment of the Russian supply chain may provide new opportunity for the domestic producers to overcome recent travails. Nobody knows for sure,
 
Since it's the cheapest stuff out there presumably it's the first thing to sell out. I haven't bought any steel ammo in years and I dislike the stuff. Most of the Russian steel stuff is either too underpowered, too filthy or both so I avoid it. But my LGS had some Wolf today when I was there (Sportsman's Warehouse).
 
In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero

Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?
The Mak, and Carbine arnt common here, Or at least I've never seen them, but I've seen Wolf ammo in all the other calibers mentioned.
I generally buy the PPU if that's available as it has often produced better performance for me than Wolf, But when I wanted cheap blasting ammo and still shot at 223 I bought Wolf.
When I had a semi-auto Grendel I shot Wolf ammo as well.

Quite honestly I'd gravitated to shooting larger more expensive rounds in general with my 10 mm and 44s absorbing most of my handgun ammunition, I haven't fired my 223 i almost a year, and primarily shoot larger or much larger cartridges.
Primary reasons it cost me the exact same amount to load and shoot the bigger rounds as it does the smaller.
 
Central Texas Academy late 2020. There was pretty much nothing on the shelf except what I believe is Russian made Monarch. C09A62DE-DBC0-4EF1-8C3E-BAB212B15DD3.jpeg My LGS also had a bunch of Wolf and Barnaul 223, both said made in Russia on the boxes. Plus 9mm and 7.62. I would guess at least 20% of what they had on the shelf.

As far as what Sam at SGammo says, I tend to believe him because he’s never come up with dumb, panicky of untruthful statements that I’ve ever seen. I think he’s a straight shooter.
 
In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero

Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?
Do you have an Academy locally? If so, their Monarch brand is going to be Russian, if steel. I KNOW I've seen 9x18 Makarov, because I've BOUGHT it there.
I have also seen Tula and Wolf on the shelf there. There's also a LGS, Jim's, that has had it.

I can't remember what all I have seen in local stores, because honestly, they don't begin to compete with online prices (and that has included brass, too).
 
I have never once in all my shooting years bought one round on Russian 9mm. I'm struggling with "Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country.........."

Meh, don't believe that. Maybe 10-15%
Do you guys think people are lying about this? WHY?
 
Agree with all those saying "whaaaa????" to the numbers. Just looking through the brass piles, there is VERY little steel cased 5.56 (for example) at the several ranges I frequent. Like... 1% of the cases left behind (and there's a LOT of brass left on the ground so there's not obviously survivorship bias at work here). Also comports with what is in people's bags when I am at club matches, walk down the line, etc. 9 mm? I'll see a handful of steel cases once a year. 7.62x39? Sure. Makarov, 54R, etc? Sure. But western cartridges? Naw.

There will have to be parts of the country where they shoot nothing but russian 5.56 and 9 to make up for those numbers. I want to see the math on that.
 
What is the story behind Winchester's "Forged" ammo in 9mm? Did they think they could take some of the Russian market share? Just asking because I have no idea what prompted that considerable expense.
 
I bet we don’t see much steel cases at the range because lots of it never gets shot. It’s at the bottom of deep stacks in the basement!:D
Thats true. 50% of my total ammunition stash is Russian steel-cased, but I consider it "wartime emergency" stockpile and it is prepped for long-term storage. The domestic brass stuff gets picked for casual range use or serious target work.
 
SG Ammo’s write up makes sense and I tend to believe them.
#1 When the guys shooting Russian ammo can no longer get it, they’re either going to quit or they’ll compete for the non-Russian ammo. A lot of them will change calibers. So even if you shoot 6.5 Japanese your ammo is going to get pricier. I don’t get the people saying “I don’t shoot steel case, not gonna affect me” - Yes it will.
#2 How long have we been waiting for all the new primer plants to come online and flood us with cheap primers? Manufactures aren’t going to magically fill in the void and make things all better. The Miracle of Capitalism will cause the price of ammunition to rise, but not quite enough to justify spending millions on new capacity. If I have $100M to invest, am I going to risk it on new capacity or just invest in the existing infrastructure that’s enjoying windfall profits because of supply side limits?
The ban can be reversed any time, or after the next election. What happens when I spend my $100M on a new ammo plant and the market gets flooded with no-longer-banned ammo? Business leaders aren’t stupid and don’t make emotionally driven decisions, at least the successful ones.
#3 I haven’t seen hard data about the market share of Russian/steel case ammo, but anecdotally, I see it everywhere I look; at stores, at the range, in peoples ammo storage,… everywhere. 30-40% is plausible.
 
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What will it mean for those milsurps that shoot commonly imported Russian ammo. Those SKSs have been trending upward the last few years. Maybe a little dip?
 
Its a real downer for me. My one and only pistol is a cz 82 in 9mm makarov. Thankfully I bought a thousand rounds two days before the news broke. Going to feel guilty for even shooting it.
 
Its a real downer for me. My one and only pistol is a cz 82 in 9mm makarov. Thankfully I bought a thousand rounds two days before the news broke. Going to feel guilty for even shooting it.
You should be happy, you're ok. In addition to the Russian steel, I still have Fiocchi, PPU and Geco brass FMJ, and PPU JHP. And Hornady still makes JHP I think, as does I believe Buffalo Bore.
In other words, there's plenty of (European) manufacturers still making this caliber. There will be something available before you run out. As I recall, I didn't pay over $13 for any of the FMJ, and I think the JHP was around $18 (and during a panic rush).

The guys who shoot 5.45 are SOL, and the guys who shoot 7.62x39 are going to have to re-evaluate their usage.
I think x39 is still an ideal hog and ok deer cartridge, and there's a lot of guns that shoot it. But it won't remain the cheapest centerfire cartridge available.
I think the Mosin guys will be ok, PPU doesn't cost TOO awful much, and it's a lot cleaner.

I suspect this is going to hurt the 300 Blackout and other niche AR calibers, a lot more than people realize.
 
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