Timing (and luck) is everything. I got all my MG's prior to 1986. I don't think it's wise to buy them at today's inflated prices. Eventually, the bubble will burst, or at least prices will level off.So a lot of people own nfa machine guns, silencers, etc and we pay cash for them some how.
What do you do for a living that allows these purchases to occur?
The bubble hasn't burst since 1986, nor have prices leveled off. Thats thirty five years of increasing value...... I got all my MG's prior to 1986. I don't think it's wise to buy them at today's inflated prices. Eventually, the bubble will burst, or at least prices will level off....
For one thing, MG owners tend to skew older. And these older owners rarely sell. When they inevitably begin to die off, there will be a lot of hitherto locked-up inventory to hit the market in a relatively short timeThe bubble hasn't burst since 1986, nor have prices leveled off. That's thirty five years of increasing value.
Why do you think this will happen?
That's one possibility. Another possibility is that full automatics get outlawed altogether. Either of these things would make the bottom drop out of the market. The third possibility is that the status quo remains for the next, say, 50 years. This is actually the least likely of the three things to happen.The only way for the bubble to burst is for the Hughes Amendment or National Firearms Act to be repealed or ruled unconstitutional. The likely hood of either happening is virtually zero.
The difference is that the market for these alternative items that you mention is liquid. That is, if you have the money and desire to buy, the formalities of the transaction will take a few days at most. The market for NFA items is illiquid because of the months-long bureaucratic process. A buyer has to be really determined under these circumstances. That alone is a factor holding down price appreciation.Same way people own fancy boats, or personal aircraft (which run to similar prices).
True enough. But there are a number of bureaucratic "things" in the way of many hobby purchases. Bought a 1978 Lido 14 once. Buyer did not have the title for the trailer having not bothered to renew the tags for four years. So, I had to wait through the whole process of getting a Salvage Title on the trailer. That's not uniform across all hobbies, naturally.The market for NFA items is illiquid because of the months-long bureaucratic process.
Of course they are older. Few 25 yr olds are going to have the coin to buy a MG.For one thing, MG owners tend to skew older. And these older owners rarely sell. When they inevitably begin to die off, there will be a lot of hitherto locked-up inventory to hit the market in a relatively short time
Huh? Who cares whether its "fits and starts", fact is........the price of a MG has increased every year. Cherry picking an MG here and there over the last 35 years doesn't prove anything.Since 1986, prices have increased by fits and starts. It has not been a steady increase. There have been years when prices leveled off or actually went down.
Tell us more Nostradamus.Nothing keeps going up and up forever.
And a comet might hit earth tomorrow, wiping out everything. All guns could be outlawed, banned prohibited in the future.That's one possibility. Another possibility is that full automatics get outlawed altogether. Either of these things would make the bottom drop out of the market.
Yet the Hughes Amendment is going strong after 35 years and the NFA after 87 years...........the status quo is pretty darn the most likely thing not to change.The third possibility is that the status quo remains for the next, say, 50 years. This is actually the least likely of the three things to happen.
No, I wouldn't, even if I lost interest in the items as guns. The reason is the capital gains tax.Seriously, would you sell your MG right now?
Yet the reason the capital gains tax is based on...............is an increase in value.No, I wouldn't, even if I lost interest in the items as guns. The reason is the capital gains tax....
I actually bought the MG's before 1986. They had already appreciated by that time. Of course the appreciation accelerated thereafter.How about an answer on "For the price you paid in 1986? What the price was in 1996, 2006, 2016?"
You could sell that MG for the price you paid in 1986 and owe zero capital gains tax.
No, I wasn't.You were asking a rhetorical question.
Explain why.Selling for the original price is silly.
A straight line projection that's steadily increased the value of machine guns for thirty five years?The real issue is not what happened, price-wise, in the past, but what is likely to happen in the future. It would be a great mistake to make a straight-line projection.
Any "glut" will be insignificant compared to the potential market:As I mentioned, there's going to be a glut of transferable MG's when older owners (who have large holdings) die off.
I would recommend something else for a first MG. I had a MAC 11 once (suppressed, no less), and got rid of it. Way overrated.(But I am saving for an M11, to live out my ‘80s action hero dreams…)
I would recommend something else for a first MG. I had a MAC 11 once (suppressed, no less), and got rid of it. Way overrated.