Is 5.7 a threat to 9mm dominance?

Howland937 said:

...... Did it start with the availability of surplus ammo or the guns themselves?

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Availability of "surplus ammo" actually keeps US ammunition manufacturers from producing that cartridge. Ever looked for US made 7.62x25?

It wasn't overnight, as hundreds of thousands of WWII surplus handguns and millions of rounds of ammunition were imported throughout the 1950's and '60's. By the mid '70's US manufacturers were churning out 9mm handguns. That didn't make the price of 9mm go down one bit. (I know, I bought my first BHP in 1980)

What did have an impact, was the massive US LE market switch to 9mm handguns and the US military doing the same. Ammunition companies love huge government contracts and the same machinery is used for commercial market as for police or military. Same reason .223/5.56 is one of the cheapest centerfire rifle rounds.

The LE market is heavily influenced by the FBI. Once the FBI determined .38 special and 9mm were inadequate, the LE market jumped on the .40S&W bandwagon. Overwhelming popularity by the LE market influenced civilian sales. As soon as the FBI jumped off the .40S&W as the bestest ever.........the civilian market followed the FBI & LE and virtually abandoned the .40S&W.

dogtown tom said:

The LE market is heavily influenced by the FBI. Once the FBI determined .38 special and 9mm were inadequate, the LE market jumped on the .40S&W bandwagon. Overwhelming popularity by the LE market influenced civilian sales. As soon as the FBI jumped off the .40S&W as the bestest ever.........the civilian market followed the FBI & LE and virtually abandoned the .40S&W.

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It's mostly true that LE is practically directed by FBI. I will grant it that FBI and LE definitely brought us the 40 and made it popular, until it wasn't anymore. The FBI and LE were the only ones left on that bandwagon. I believe the number one rationale for 9x19 overcoming the popularity of 40 is magazine capacity. The number one benefit though is the lower recoil in polymer-frame compacts that have been diminishing in overall mass... Glock 19 > 43 > Shield > P365, Shield Plus etc. While capacity sells the guns to the users, the rationale that a lot of officers were not as effective shooting the Glock 22 as they were a 9x19 pistol justified the switch. For consumers, the increased acceptance of 9x19 resulted in few of them even trying to handle 40 in a compact designed for CC.

I know it has been already mentioned in this thread but let me add my $.02...

You need an electron microscope and a great deal of imagination to reload 5.7. And TIME. I've never seen another caliber (no I haven't seen them all) that requires so much detail. You must set back the shoulder, trim...and on it goes. It's a huge PIA and I am tired of it. I got a load of factory ammo when it was $25/box. I may reload some more, but I am not anxious.

Corpral_Agarn said:

No.


Personally I think a 30 or 32 cal straight wall cartridge with 125 grn bullet with some good velocity might would be cool. Really maximize the capacity idea.

Basically 30 carbine-SHORT.

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Like these?



That's Gun Jesus with the 2 French handguns, including the gun that evolved into the Sig P210 down the road (1935a).

Steinel new 7.65 French Longue, 30 cal, 110 gr fmj, load is somewhere around 1000fps at muzzle.

Years ago, I looked at a couple that popped up on gunbroker for cheap, but then there was no ammo available so I passed. Truly regret it now, as by most accounts they were as nice as the P210's, just downsized a bit. Still plenty enough to ruin someone's day, and a fantastic design.

lsudave said:

Like these?
View attachment 1039909
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That's Gun Jesus with the 2 French handguns, including the gun that evolved into the Sig P210 down the road (1935a).

Steinel new 7.65 French Longue, 30 cal, 110 gr fmj, load is somewhere around 1000fps at muzzle.

Years ago, I looked at a couple that popped up on gunbroker for cheap, but then there was no ammo available so I passed. Truly regret it now, as by most accounts they were as nice as the P210's, just downsized a bit. Still plenty enough to ruin someone's day, and a fantastic design.

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More or less, yeah

I don't see the 5.7 being any greater a threat to the 9mm than the .40 was.

I am retreating to cover now.....

I don't, either. Nobody wants to be first, among all the other reasons.

The Exile said:

Is 5.7 a threat to 9mm dominance?
.

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Not anytime soon.... most likely never. There are a lot of great cartridges out there that are arguably "Better" than 9mm, but the 9 has always worked and works better than ever today. There are endless choices in firearms and ammunition types for the 9x19. It's prevailed in every challenge to its dominance over many decades. I was still a diehard 45 ACP fan 30 years ago. Even I sold my last 1911 45 and settled on a S&W 9 loaded with +P for too many good reasons to list. And we're not done improving the 9mm. The fact that it's a living cartridge with more potential is just another thing to like about it.

Lets see ... George Luger developed the 9mm Luger in 1901 .
So it's been kicking around for 120 years ... when I started handloading in 1967 the 9mm Luger Vs. 45 ACP had been going on since all the G.I.'s came back home with Lugers and P-38's . The Army went 9mm and the poor old 45 ACP took a beating .
I don't think any other round will knock the 9mm Luger off it's popularity spot ... it simply has too much going for it ... and it may take a licking but it comes back and just keeps on ticking .

The 5.7 has a couple things not in it's favor ... bullet seating (short neck) limits the bullet and 5.7 size ... the bullet is too light ... trying to make up for that in velocity ... doen't bode well .

You would think the 17 cal rimfires would put the 22 LR under the dirt ... velocity , accuracy , fast light bullet ... but that's not happening ... the 22 LR isn't going out of existance any time soon either .
Gary

I had a PS90 long before the jacked up price of 5.7 ammo. Even then the ammo was high $$$.

A KelTec CMR-30 fills the void in the vault and I'm going to file to make it a SBR. After a good cleaning and fluff an buff it runs pretty good. And 22WMR is much easier on the wallet.

5.7 seemed like an interesting new idea in the ‘90s…. But never saw the widespread adoption by worldwide military and police necessary to make it affordable enough to be practical for civilians as more than a toy.

It’s never going to get adopted in any widespread way, nor will any other cartridge challenge 9mm dominance in the foreseeable future.

My opinion is no. I don't think the 9mm has anything to worry about.

Even without getting into the economics of scale, if you look at the thought process etc behind the creation of 5.7x28 you realize not only will it never replace 9mm in widespread use, but it was never envisioned that it ever would.

5.7

1. was designed to defeat a threat to NATO forces that failed to materialize before the fall of the Soviet Union (troops in soft-armor appearing behind NATO lines) and technology has changed such that the round can no longer perform in its intended role. I.e. current gen body armor can comfortably incorporate hard panels capable of defeating 5.7.
2. the initial concept was for the round to be used not in a semi-auto pistol, but in PDW/SMG type weapons (P90), meaning select fire, therefore hopefully multiple rounds/hits per target,
3. because of the two factors above and esp. #2 not much weight was given to single round terminal ballistics. So it sucks at what we might call "Social uses".

So, the question "will 5.7x28 replace 9mm" could be rephrased as "can a cartridge with ballistics between .22mag and .22 Hornet replace 9mm?" the answer should be obvious. I wouldn't trust .22 Hornet to take down anything bigger than a small Coyote.

not only do I not think that 5.7 will replace 9mm but like others I suspect that it has already begun a slide toward being another "weird-gun geek" round. it is out performed economically and ballistically by 9mm for civilian uses and due to tech advances has lost its military niche and 5.56 chambered PDWs are filling that now.

^ Speaking of .22 Magnum when I'm given the choice between a pistol that holds 30 rds of .22 WMR in the Kel Tec PMR30 and 20 or 30 rounds in the FN or Ruger 5.7 and the gun and ammo for the .22 Mag option are half the price during normal times, the ammo a quarter of the price in current times, I'll take .22 Mag everyday.

I don't want to shift this into a .22 Mag vs 5.7 topic, but I do think that the existence of that PMR30 cut the legs out from under the 5.7 chambered pistols.

TTv2 said:

^ Speaking of .22 Magnum when I'm given the choice between a pistol that holds 30 rds of .22 WMR in the Kel Tec PMR30 and 20 or 30 rounds in the FN or Ruger 5.7 and the gun and ammo for the .22 Mag option are half the price during normal times, the ammo a quarter of the price in current times, I'll take .22 Mag everyday.

I don't want to shift this into a .22 Mag vs 5.7 topic, but I do think that the existence of that PMR30 cut the legs out from under the 5.7 chambered pistols.

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Very good additional economic point..

And this really drives home what I mean by 5.7 becoming a round for lovers of weird or oddball guns. Most gun owners aren't going to choose a .22mag as a carry gun, it just isn't considered "enough gun" by most.
The FN and Ruger 5.7s and the PMR are all three already the province of buyers who want "something different/wierd"

The Exile said:

Maybe a question for another thread but if that's the case what's even the point of SMGs now? If we can just shrink down the AR/M16 platform to SMG scale does that mean that not only is the 5.7 an evolutionary dead end, but also every 9mm too, baring sidearms?

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I dunno, the 9mm PCC field is absolutely booming right now. Pistol caliber carbines (aka SMGs, basically, give or take the giggle switch) are pretty compelling when you don’t necessarily need “rifle” range ballistics, or when running suppressed. And a lot of those PCCs are, in fact, scaled down ARs.

The Exile said:

Maybe a question for another thread but if that's the case what's even the point of SMGs now? If we can just shrink down the AR/M16 platform to SMG scale does that mean that not only is the 5.7 an evolutionary dead end, but also every 9mm too, baring sidearms?

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SMGs definitely still have a place. The small ARs are pretty small but the are still significantly bigger than the K model SMGs like the Sig MPX or B&T APC.

The Exile said:

9mm seems to be the current global standard for handgun self defense, and while some competitors exist like .40 or .45 the 9mm still reigns supreme; however it seems like we're marching towards something kind of like a mini-cold war with China and ammo like the 5.7 offers attractive body armor defeating power, and it's undeniable that civilian shooters are highly influenced by military firearm trends. So just talking about civilian self defense is there any reason to think that the 5.7 could challenge 9mm, or at least stake it's claim next to the 40/45 big brothers? Or is this just a fad experiment that only makes sense in the context of PDWs like the P90 or MP7? I'm sure 99% of us don't have to worry about a home intruder with body armor but I've never heard how 5.7 works against soft targets.

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I am not sure how all this fits into the context of a 'cold war' with our largest trading partner. Who is shooting whom with handguns?

Also, I don't see the trend away from the most popular handgun caliber on Earth.

The Exile said:

Maybe a question for another thread but if that's the case what's even the point of SMGs now? If we can just shrink down the AR/M16 platform to SMG scale does that mean that not only is the 5.7 an evolutionary dead end, but also every 9mm too, baring sidearms?

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Mosin77 said:

I dunno, the 9mm PCC field is absolutely booming right now. Pistol caliber carbines (aka SMGs, basically, give or take the giggle switch) are pretty compelling when you don’t necessarily need “rifle” range ballistics, or when running suppressed. And a lot of those PCCs are, in fact, scaled down ARs.

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C-grunt said:

SMGs definitely still have a place. The small ARs are pretty small but the are still significantly bigger than the K model SMGs like the Sig MPX or B&T APC.

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PCCs/SMGs still have a place, but it's in civilian, law enforcement, and very specialized military use now. The days of giving rear echelon troops a compact, pistol caliber "long gun" in case of enemy raids (the noted specific reason for the 5.7×28 & P90) have passed.

The M-4 was adopted in large part to BE the US answer to the PDW question. Which is why it's the weapon issued to the likes of helo pilots when a non-pistol is warranted. But none of this leads to even decline a of the 9mm.

My point in all of that, has little to do with 9mm and its uses. But that the use envisioned for 5.7 has passed/changed sufficiently that the round is no longer up to the task. If enemy troops encountered in the rear are wearing body armor, the round is likely no longer able to penetrate. If those troops lack body armor, 9mm will be better suited.

Nope