Govt stats - who is buying guns?

Let’s remember that in many states, private sales have to go through NICS or similar system. In the free states, I can meet a guy in the Walmart parking lot and sell him a gun if selling in good faith without knowledge of prohibitive factors. That is why I would put Illinois over Kentucky here…..tracked gun sales vs actual. That being said, I always ask for the buyer to have a CHL and show it to me so I have made some extra attempt….but I don’t have to.

illinoisburt said:

I don't think a private sale in Illinois creates a NICS check. They have a website where you put in the FOID number and the person's birth date to check whether their card is valid. That may change under the new laws that become effective in a couple of years. For now I think NICS is dealer sales only.

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You may be 100% correct. I have no idea how that works.

illinoisburt said:

It seems crazy to me these 2 states are combined accounting for almost a third of the National total.

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I run NICS checks on less than 20% of my transfers........the others are exempt.
Using FBI NICS stats to estimate firearms sales isn't a very accurate means of estimation.

dogtown tom said:

I run NICS checks on less than 20% of my transfers........the others are exempt.
Using FBI NICS stats to estimate firearms sales isn't a very accurate means of estimation.

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This. In states with high concealed carry permits the data will be very inaccurate.

dogtown tom said:

I run NICS checks on less than 20% of my transfers........the others are exempt.
Using FBI NICS stats to estimate firearms sales isn't a very accurate means of estimation.

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I didn’t even think of that.

As others have stated, some states are expert from doing a NICS check for Conceal Carry permit holders. And those won't show up in ATF/FBI NICS numbers. And for those states that are a POC for NICS, those might not be included either when it comes to federal reports. Those with more knowledge can answer about POC states.

Yes but there are 4.5 million people in Kentucky and 12.8 million in Illinois. If you divide the number of gun sales per state by the population the sales per person is a lot higher in Kentucky. Numbers can be deceiving.

I swear it's not me driving the IL numbers up....

Really, I swear.

And, all bureaucratic recording statistics have a bit of a "delay" built into them.
They have subtle "cut off dates" to allow time to collate the states, then publish them. This can be from 6 to 18 months "out of date" at time of publishing.

Then there is a delay until a bored journalist in a coffee shop needs to submit an article to get paid for that day, finally looking up obscure stats.

And, as a guess, this "slump" is part of the natural consequence of the "drought" we had in firearms. So, people stopped looking for arms to buy, which will slow sales.

There will also be a component of the number of people who surged out and got their one gun, and were done at that point. Not all of "them" are "us" to where one gun begets getting another. (There are people, quel suprise, who are satisfied own owning only one hammer, or only one camera--weirdos! [] )

I wonder where the stats for states that do not use the NICS come from? PA is on there, with 100,000+/- a month, the State Police run the checks, and they can use the NICS, but I can't see that they're required to. Illinois has very similar demographics to PA population size, rural/urban breakdown, education and income are pretty comparable. PA is running 1/4 to 1/3 the monthly NICS checks, but I'm not convinced overall gun sales even favor Illinois much less by a factor of 3 or 4.

The pandemic "free" money handout checks have dried up......
I know thats put a crimp on my gun buying, but thanks Joe and Nancy, it was fun while it lasted.

Obturation said:

I swear it's not me driving the IL numbers up....

Really, I swear.

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Me either...

illinoisburt said:

It seems crazy to me these 2 states are combined accounting for almost a third of the National total.

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Both run routine checks on their permit holders.. Their numbers are not actually firearms purchases so its a little misleading.

Just yesterday I was in the sporting goods store and witnessed a two guys trying to buy a handgun who clearly knew nothing about firearms.
Part of me would like to think lots of normal citizens are deciding to arm themselves due to rising crime, uncontrolled rioting, and other issues, but half the people I see at ranges, stores, etc. strike me as people that should not be buying firearms.

Will Munny said:

Just yesterday I was in the sporting goods store and witnessed a two guys trying to buy a handgun who clearly knew nothing about firearms.
Part of me would like to think lots of normal citizens are deciding to arm themselves due to rising crime, uncontrolled rioting, and other issues, but half the people I see at ranges, stores, etc. strike me as people that should not be buying firearms.

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Well, half the people exercising their First Amendment rights strike me as people who should not be doing so. But it is the Constitution after all.

Tax Return season just passed. Guns will come down as inflation is up also. Disposable income will start to shrink.

"That is why I would put Illinois over Kentucky here…..tracked gun sales vs actual. "

"Both run routine checks on their permit holders.. Their numbers are not actually firearms purchases so its a little misleading."

Bad information. Kentucky does not require background checks for the purchase of any firearm and it preempts local governments from doing so. A licensed dealer may or may not run a check on a purchaser with a CCL. But it is not required; it's up to the individual dealer. And there are no background checks for private gun sales. Indeed, some local festivals look like a gun bazar with all the private, in-the-open gun sales.