1.25 million guns sales/month may be the bottom in a “new normal”

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GeoDudeFlorida

GeoDudeFlorida

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“April’s NSSF adjusted NICS figures of 1,359,908 shows that there is a steady and sustained appetite for lawful firearm ownership in America. April’s figure continues the streak of more than 1 million background checks for the sale of a firearm for 33 months and demonstrates that the firearm industry continues to meet America’s strong demand for lawful firearm ownership,” said Mark Oliva, the spokesman for the industry representative and research center.

"News" story here...

Anybody care to speculate about what that's going to do to prices of used guns, new guns, gear, ammo, reloading supplies...? Sure, I think it makes sense to say "many" of those new guns will go in a sock drawer, loaded, and be forgotten about, but not all and maybe even not "most."

If you think $80/1000 primers and $50/lb powder is going away soon, I think you might be disappointed.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
“April’s NSSF adjusted NICS figures of 1,359,908 shows that there is a steady and sustained appetite for lawful firearm ownership in America. April’s figure continues the streak of more than 1 million background checks for the sale of a firearm for 33 months and demonstrates that the firearm industry continues to meet America’s strong demand for lawful firearm ownership,” said Mark Oliva, the spokesman for the industry representative and research center.

"News" story here...

Anybody care to speculate about what that's going to do to prices of used guns, new guns, gear, ammo, reloading supplies...? Sure, I think it makes sense to say "many" of those new guns will go in a sock drawer, loaded, and be forgotten about, but not all and maybe even not "most."

If you think $80/1000 primers and $50/lb powder is going away soon, I think you might be disappointed.
Click to expand...
But 3 new Primer Factories and counting! I have fate that people will go broke soon.
 
<edited missing quote>

I found the data behind the article really interesting. All the pundits and pontificators can measure is sales, and mostly they use NICS checks to make the comparisons to previous cycles. What's not cool about that is the fact that NICS is now used for ammo sales. I'm not sure how that effects the final counts - and neither are the people who count and print punditries. Is this good or bad for the industry? Not sure. I suspect it may be bad for handloaders in the end.
 
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GeoDudeFlorida said:
I found the data behind the article really interesting. All the pundits and pontificators can measure is sales, and mostly they use NICS checks to make the comparisons to previous cycles. What's not cool about that is the fact that NICS is now used for ammo sales. I'm not sure how that effects the final counts - and neither are the people who count and print punditries. Is this good or bad for the industry? Not sure. I suspect it may be bad for handloaders in the end.
Click to expand...
NICS Ammo Sales, that’s right!
 
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GeoDudeFlorida said:
April’s NSSF adjusted NICS figures of 1,359,908 shows that there is a steady and sustained appetite for lawful firearm ownership in America.
Click to expand...
I don't understand the continued uptick in gun sales. It seems to me that by now, everyone who wanted a gun already has one. So are people just buying multiples? Or is this driven by threats to ownership?

The most disquieting possibility is that people are stocking up in preparation for civil conflict. That theory could be proven if there were unusually large purchases of ammunition, along with the guns.
 
The ATF puts out an annual firearms manufacturing and export report. This will give more definitive guidance on what manufacturers are actually doing and where the market is headed. Unfortunately there is a considerable lag.

NICS is dramatically skewed by political decisions in various states. NICS to get permit, NICS to buy ammo, NICS checks aren't run on many sales in free states if a person has a permit to carry, etc. My 5 year permit has been used for more than 1 purchase... Even year over year comparisons are meaningless due to these law changes.
 
reddog81 said:
The ATF puts out an annual firearms manufacturing and export report. This will give more definitive guidance on what manufacturers are actually doing and where the market is headed. Unfortunately there is a considerable lag.

NICS is dramatically skewed by political decisions in various states. NICS to get permit, NICS to buy ammo, NICS checks aren't run on many sales in free states if a person has a permit to carry, etc. My 5 year permit has been used for more than 1 purchase... Even year over year comparisons are meaningless due to these law changes.
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Yes, exactly. The rule of data applies: garbage in = garbage out.

Why are gun sales numbers being puffed - if that's what's happening? Beats me.
I suspect at some point California or New York will require a NICS check to buy a car, use a public restroom, or visit a museum. It's just a matter of time and Hershey bars.
 
I think the stats have to be taken with a grain of salt that may want to skew the truth against gun owners. Are these sales all for NEW guns entering the market. Or just reflecting many used guns being resold for profit while the prices are high? I'd bet a lot are used perches. But the high "sales" numbers can spook the antigun crowd.

Simple example. If 100 Brand New guns are sold. Then those 100 guns are resold it would show 200 "gun sales". But it's still 100 guns. Hows that break down in the 1.25 million? I would guess less than half are New guns entering the market with the rest used gun sales. JMO from seeing sales at local gunshops and watching sales on online sites. LOTS of used gun transactions.
 
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AlexanderA said:
I don't understand the continued uptick in gun sales. It seems to me that by now, everyone who wanted a gun already has one. So are people just buying multiples? Or is this driven by threats to ownership?

The most disquieting possibility is that people are stocking up in preparation for civil conflict. That theory could be proven if there were unusually large purchases of ammunition, along with the guns.
Click to expand...
I just bought another gun yesterday. If i see a good deal i gotta do it
 
It will be almost impossible for ammo or gun prices to drop much because the money supply has increased aprox 40% in 2 years, along with supply chain “problems.”

Of course recent credit card debt numbers came in double of expectations and increased food and fuel cost might be a sign many people are running out of money. I’ve personally just about stopped buying guns and ammo because I have no play money at the end of the month.
 
Hartkopf said:
It will be almost impossible for ammo or gun prices to drop much because the money supply has increased aprox 40% in 2 years, along with supply chain “problems.”

Of course recent credit card debt numbers came in double of expectations and increased food and fuel cost might be a sign many people are running out of money. I’ve personally just about stopped buying guns and ammo because I have no play money at the end of the month.
Click to expand...

This is going to be more impactful than anything else. Bottom line, firearms are an elastic good, paid for with disposable income. As inelastic goods, such as food and energy, continue to climb, those prices will squeeze out all other commodities and services. I would not want to be working in the recreation, restaurant, etc. industries in a year from now.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
How much do you have to lose before you’re allowed to get the gun?:rofl:

If it really was a weight period I’d never be able to get a new gun again. :(
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my gun and reloading budget is low-vvvv-www this year, so I’m spreading it out and only getting very cheap stuff. Lee Pro 4000, Turkey 1911’s X 2 later this year, Maybe, and that’s it. Last year was $4,000 of good buying, this year, maybe $1,000

Weight period SUCKS! and of June 1st no more over 10rd mags for sale. Next Year, probably so other crap they will drop on us.
 
Insignificant bill said:
Luckily here in Texas we have beaten back the idiocy of wait times and LTC holders get the NICS check waived. Some of the box store retailers don't honor it though. And we are a Constitutional Carry State finally.
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Florida is next! 26 states so FAR! including our 3 neighbors to the East; Montana, Utah, and Idaho!!! FREEDOM
 
I heard a discussion at my range a couple of days ago by the guys that do the handgun safety courses and the CCW courses.
The discussion was in regards to how many of people they had trained after CoVid and the rioting scumbags in 2020 now come in with multiple guns now to shoot at the range.
A great many of them now have 3 or 4 handguns whereas they had none before what I like to call “The Silliness”.
 
Pat Riot said:
I heard a discussion at my range a couple of days ago by the guys that do the handgun safety courses and the CCW courses.
The discussion was in regards to how many of people they had trained after CoVid and the rioting scumbags in 2020 now come in with multiple guns now to shoot at the range.
A great many of them now have 3 or 4 handguns whereas they had none before what I like to call “The Silliness”.
Click to expand...
I know 2 that during plandemic and scumbag riots of 2020 here in Seattle that bought a G2C-ish gun and fire it once, and left it in their the desk. Zero Interest in firearms and forgot how scared they were when asking me for help. People forget FAST
 
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