Will Most of the New Guns Owners Stay Gun Owners?

If you asked me towards the beginning of 2020 I would have said 80% of them were going to return their guns one the panic wore off. But it's been thing after thing and they keep selling more I would put the number much lower now. I am basing this off 2 things.

#1 the longer the new gun owner has the gun the less likely I think they are to have a sudden change of heart. This may have been different it the pandemic had suddenly ended and the world returned to normal in a timely fashion but it didn't.

#2 Ammo sales. Ammo sales indicate many new gun owners are actually taking their guns out and shooting them. This also matches up with anecdotal tales from the guy that owns my favorite range. He said the money he was making from range fees and number of new shooters at the range during 2020 and 2021 was massively up. It got to the point that he was actually looking into expanding and adding an additional 300yrd range with 10-20 extra lanes. it slowed back down in winter 2021 so he didn't but still.

So I am making my own WAG that it will be much lower like 20-30% of them will return them maybe? idk this is all guesses and speculation.

The sport is so popular now that ammo and reloading components are very hard to find. New indoor ranges popping up everywhere. No indicator needed. Gun ranges are packed, we are running out of ammo and reloading components daily and being priced gouged in the process. Let those that don't want to stay gun owners leave peaceably.

Surely Biden has a plan for new gun owners that have lost their way. And hopefully it will free some ammo up for all of us.

Who knows? We can always hope so. And if not, there should be a lot of nice guns on the used market. But all of us should try to help if the opportunity presents itself. Help a new shooter out. Be it someone struggling with a new gun at the range or someone having trouble finding ammo. Just my opinion............

I know many long time gun owners who never use their guns for any purpose, they just sit in closets and drawers. I don't see new owners being much different, they own for a bit of "peace of mind" and are not interested in gun culture.

I am seeing more newer gun owners and lots of first-time shooters at my regular indoor range. Here in the “Land of Banned” I feel thats a good sign. With every passing year there is a new ban, restriction and hurdle being placed in the path of lawful gun ownership; seeing folks starting out on the path of (hopefully) future acceptance and (double hopefully) genuine support for their gun rights is encouraging.

Stay safe.

citizenconn said:

. . . like juicing, crocheting, scrapbooking, etc. . .

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I think most are less interested in firearms than your typical new Crochette is in hooks. . . but if 1% become enthusiasts, that a lot of new enthusiasts.

Like my sister who became a new gun owner back in the late 60's,,,
She was a gun owner until the May 3rd 1999 Tornado took her house from Moore, Oklahoma,,,
And re-planted it somewhere in Kansas along with her only fired maybe three times S&W Model 36 revolver.

Hey, it's only a guess but I would surmise that like my sister's pistol,,,
Most folk will shoot it a few times and then it will get permanently exiled to their sock drawer.

So yes, I say most will stay gun owners for years,,,
Whether they become active in learning to shoot is doubtful.

Aarond

.

This seems to be a recurring topic. I don't get the fascination over what others may or may not do with a consumer product. But hey, to each their own.

However there seems to always be an underlying assumption that anyone who bought a gun in the last few years did so for unusual reasons (i.e. fear of missing out/gov't positioning on the 2A/literal fear and/or self-preservation). From that, people tend to speculate that these new gun owners' interest will be fleeting because all those parenthetic items are not what normally motivate people to buy guns. But is that even true? Are those abnormal reasons for people to buy a gun? I don't think so at all. So if it's normal to buy a gun for those reasons, why all the speculation that this latest surge in ownership is destined to fill bargain bin loads of once-fired guns at deep discounts in the near future?

Then there's the economics of it. The price point a first-time gun buyer is likely shopping, is probably in the $300-$700 range, certainly under $1k, I would guess. So that said, is $500 really a make or break value for the average person, let alone those with a reasonably established income? Again, I don't think so. Besides that, guns not only hold value right now, they tend to fetch good money in the used market thanks to currently depleted inventory. The fantasy of the secondary market being flooded with returns is just that. People aren't going to *need* to sell a $500 item to eat, unless $500 was way over their budget in the first place.

Beyond that, there's an assumption that all the newer buyers are recent converts and posters seem to be hedging their bets that they'll somehow have a second change of heart somewhere down the road and do the same thing above (dump their guns) for moral/political reasons. I don't even know where to begin with that since it's so speculative and presupposes so many details of people's thinking that it's too unwieldy to parse. Consumer buying habits are pretty darned diverse so getting a good picture of why someone went out and bought a gun for the first time isn't exactly easy to pin down.

Finally, there's the "how it affects us" angle where people wonder aloud about how buying a gun is going to influence someone's future voting habits. This is where the discussion goes totally off the rails. It's a version of siderism where posters lament that new buyers aren't going to be team players in the battle for securing 2A rights. What I find most fascinating about that line of thinking, is it ignores the longstanding reality that diehard gun owners historically are terrible at organizing and fighting for these same rights already. But we're supposed to worry about the new guys??!??!

Lastly with respect to the above, Robert Levy, one of the architects of Heller never owned a gun in his life... and yet here we are.

My favorite guns are sock draw guns.

P5 Guy said:

My favorite guns are sock draw guns.

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How big is your sock drawer. Can fit this puppy in it! That would have a little "sock" to it!
https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/smith-wesson-500-the-most-powerful-production-revolver/

aaaaa said:

I had no handguns and only a shotgun stashed away that was my grandfathers. In December 2020 I bought my first handgun. Another one in May 2021. Three more this year (March, April, and yesterday!). I don't know that I have enough and I just might buy yet another one this year. No plans to get rid of them. Will pass them down to my son. He has his first two guns the same days I bought my first two.

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Yep most of us see guns like we see potato chips.

Timely discussion but one I’m not really interested in as I have all the guns I’ll ever need and a wholesale sell-off from first time buyers won’t really get me back into the secondary market.

The only exception to that statement would be the following.

If the gun shoots .32 H&R, .327 FM, 357 Mag, 44 Mag, .45 ACP, 45 Colt, .223, 243, 30-30, .308, 30-06, 300 Win Mag, 358 Win.

If it’s a lever action. Any lever action!

Anything that has a Mannlicher stock, percussion lockwork or JM or Tingle stamped on the barrels.

Anything that’s a single shot, single action or top break.

Anything with wood and blued metalwork made by Browning, Marlin, Winchester, Henry, Ruger, Dan Wesson, Smith and Wesson.

PS: Oh and an M1A Tanker…..just in case some of you thought I’d forgot or overlooked it.

My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I'll give this a shot. I suspect that a significant percentage of those first time buyers might be considered panic buyers, due to anxiety over all the social and political turmoil we've witnessed in the last couple of years. I further suspect that a significant percentage of those guns purchased were never fired, just put in that sock drawer or closet as security blankets. Many of those guns will not be sold, but left where they are. Out of sight, and out of mind by many buyers who never really wanted to touch a gun, and who might be embarrassed if extended family and friends learned that they were one of those deplorable gun owners. And I believe that most of those I described will still support anti 2A efforts and legislation.... YMMV

citizenconn said:

It's been reported over the past few years, certainly since the start of the pandemic and the last election cycle, that there are an unprecedented number of first time gun owners. The empty shelves we have encountered as our LGS's and big box retailers are certainly anecdotal evidence of that.

Even now, every time I go pick up a transfer or new purchase at my FFL, I encounter a number of folks getting guns whose mannerisms and actions indicate to me they are first time gun buyers. Same with many folks I encounter at the outdoor range I frequent.

Do you think the majority of these folks will remain long time gun owners and retain more than a casual interest; will they keep the guns but lose interest similar to those getting into new hobbies like juicing, crocheting, scrapbooking, etc.; or will they sell the guns as soon as they perceive the threat that caused them to buy the guns to begin with has passed? Or maybe an option I didn't list. What do you think this will mean for the gun industry and support of the 2A over the next 10 years? Thanks for your consideration.
citizenconn

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I think a majority will maybe go fire the gun a few times, then it sits in the closet. That was true before the last few years. I’m sure it applies even more so to fear/panic buyers.

reddog81 said:

Most will keep the gun, but probably never had much interest in shooting anyways. I'd guess for most it was never intended to be a hobby. It's just a tool to be used in the event of an emergency.

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That's my general sense of it, and honestly I think it bodes well overall for the ongoing 2A argument. "Buffy the soccer mom" probably isn't going to shoot 10k rds a year, get into reloading, fixate on the latest fad guns, etc. But, something caused her to decide that she needed to spend about $500 on a pistol and a few boxes of ammo... something she never intends to use, and hopes not to. But the thing is, she didn't spend that to show off like her new purse or shoes. She made a reasoned decision that the world had become unsafe, and she needed something to protect herself and her kids.

That motivation is not something you 'get over' in a year. Even if the world becomes safe again, you don't relinquish your protection.

I look at it like generators... I live in a state that's been hit by hurricanes a lot. Similar expenditures for something rarely used, to buy a generator. I don't know anyone that has one for their house, that has gotten rid of it (unless to get a bigger, better one). I take that back, some do... but most of the owners decide it's a reasonable one-time expense and will hang onto it. And even the ones that got refunds bringing them back, do NOT want a restriction on them, no matter what. Because if/when you NEED one, you want to be able to have one.