Reading the Gun Market Tea Leaves

d31tc

d31tc

Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2019
Messages
551
Location
MN
The price of some S&W handguns is dropping and rebates are being offered, i.e. Shield, Shield EZ, Shield plus and J frames. But the price of a 686 seems to keep going up. When, if at all, do you see the prices on a 686 coming down?

Recent deals on Tisas pistols were said to be related to the drop in the value of the Turkish lira, but the value of the lira has continued to fall since a few months ago when a stainless Tisas could be had for $440 and yet Tisas prices have gone up and are now selling for $600. Same question as with the 686, when, if at all, do you see the prices on Tisas coming down?

Reading the tea leaves with the mentioned manufacturers, how do you think this applies to the current gun market in general and other manufacturers?

Background: I’ve been saving for a 686 and keep getting sidetracked with deals along the way. I resisted temptation to jump at the Tisas, which would have delayed my future purchase of a 686, but I might be regretting that decision because I don’t feel like spending a grand on a 686 when I see other prices coming down.
 
Hooda Thunkit said:
What you are asking is for an explanation of global economic conditions, and a method whereby to foresee changes.

Good luck with that.

Besides not really being what this forum is about, I think that certain strongly held convictions - mine among them - would result in an early thread lock.
Click to expand...
Is that too much to ask?:rofl: I thought there might be some soothsayers here. Lord knows I’m not one.;)

Maybe I should just ask for facts and not opinions. I think I’ve read a few threads of those in the business who have data to compare year to year sales and maybe now they see revolver sales climbing relative to compact striker fired pistols and could report on that. Maybe they see revolver sales declining as well, just not as fast.

Or they see Tisas sales taking off and therefore prices will follow.

Of course the answer is simply “supply and demand” and we can leave it at that.

If this isn’t what the forum is about, and it strays, mods, feel free to close it. Thanks in advance.
 
It's supply and demand. Firearms manufacturers/distributors deal with the same economic pressures as everyone else.
We (most western nations) are in a recession. Disposable income is at a premium. The soothsayers and tea leaf readers I know expect this to last another 3 years. Eventually this will affect the price of revolvers. Import prices will be lower until current inventory is reduced to whatever the manufacturers/distributors consider an acceptable level. Then prices of those will level out.
 
In my highly unscientific opinion the gun market is in somewhat of a lull. A lot of guns are not selling for much more than they were in 2019. This is especially true on the used market.

That said, there are exceptions and some categories are certainly up. Individual models and brands -new- probably has more to do with immediate supply and demand, or deliberate manufacturer policy. If I had to guess I’d say the 686 price is being deliberately kept high by S&W policy to compete with the Colt Python, for which they ask and get, over $1500. The 686 has always been a flagship gun.

Tisas? Probably just been awhile since the last shipment and the supply may be drying up a bit.
 
Ks5shooter said:
It is what it is. Cant change it.Either buy or not.But I have never seen anything get cheaper.
Click to expand...
Some firearms related things are getting less expensive compared to their peak, not necessarily pre 2020 (primers, 22lr, some guns I’m seeing). Since the 686 is on my list, I’m seeing those prices keep going up. Slightly counterintuitive to me seeing the decline in prices of other firearms. But, inflation is a thing.

Maybe there’s a natural progression in human behavior, that we see and I’m a living example. Start out with home defense items (normal capacity semi-auto pistol), add a personal choice for carry (maybe a sub-compact striker fire pistol) then start looking for other firearm blocks to check such as a revolver (really just a want, not a need). So revolvers become a lagging indicator of demand. Pure speculation on my part without any facts to back it up other than a sample of one.

ETA: Yep, I’ll buy when my fun gun fund meets market prices and if the 686 is still on my list.:)
 
I have no training other than observations over the last 50 years, but prices seem to go high or stay high for products no longer available or that require individual skills for fitting, finishing, etc. When demand for revolvers began to ebb, Colt curbed production and S&W probably stopped replacing those in the revolver end of things when they retired. Once supplies dropped, the market added value due to scarcity and prices were raised to take advantage of the new demand. Prices are unlikely to drop so long as the demand is there.

It's a whole different deal with the Turkish guns. They poured in to take advantage of the vacuum that covid and supply chain issues created, accentuated by civil unrest. Seems like the Turks led with shotguns, which flooded the market, never commanded much pricewise, and are unlikely to be highly valued in the future. They were a bit more cagey with handguns, where they started with low prices but made changes to appeal to US consumers and increased the prices as products improved and demand increased. Now they have to stem the natural urge to ship more guns for more revenue or risk oversupply and reduced demand.

Glock intentionally priced their guns much higher than production cost when introduced, to create an image of quality, while they sold to police departments at low prices to capitalize on the image. Their market savvy and business acumen made Gaston a very wealthy guy.

None of this is a reflection on quality. It is a study in marketing and creating a demand. Some do it better. Then there is Remington, which managed to kill many fine cartridges they developed over the years for reasons I will never understand.
 
It's not tea leaves, it's a flashing billboard. Look at ammo for example, most calibers are available and prices for the most part are dropping. Also, manufacturers don't give rebates on products that are flying off the shelves. With the free Gov't money drying up and inflation people are spending their money elsewhere.
 
Battle Hawk Armory has a few 686's in the $900 range and a 2.5" model for $824. Even during 2018/2019 when retailers were running sales and manufacturers had good rebates a cheap 686 cost around $800. Maybe if you were lucky and bought at the exact right time you could get under $750. Add 20% inflation to those numbers and you are at the prices you see today. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for anything under $800.

Find a nice used one and you might save a few bucks. Most of the ones out there are shot a minimal amount of times and anything with less than a 1,000 rounds on it barely qualifies as being broken when it comes to something like a 686.
 
i think prices are going to come down in spite of inflation as these are purely discretionary items in a setting of persistent inflation for core expenditures, food, utilities etc... less wealth effect as well with drop in the stock market and hence what people see in their retirement funds. with the most likely coming recession there should less people buying them. there are ammo "sales" almost every week from most online retailers now.

should you get your 686 now? how much of a price drop are we expecting a $100 bucks or so $200 might be less likely. is that a significant enough difference for you to delay getting the revolver a year or so? it is up to how much you "need" it.
 
rust collector said:
They were a bit more cagey with handguns, where they started with low prices but made changes to appeal to US consumers and increased the prices as products improved and demand increased. Now they have to stem the natural urge to ship more guns for more revenue or risk oversupply and reduced demand.
Click to expand...

Honestly really wasn’t aware of Tisas until I saw a thread on THR and saw really low prices for what generally were reported as good quality guns adding up to a serious value to consider. It would fit the bill as a 1911 format range gun I wouldn’t feel bad about shooting a lot (unlike my other 1911, CMP M1911A1). Then the prices went back up on the Tisas, and my dog sees squirrel like attention span refocused back to the 686, for which prices also seem to be going up as well. Then I see - SQUIRREL! - rebates on some other guns. Just strange to see the divergence, thus the posting.
 
d31tc said:
Honestly really wasn’t aware of Tisas until I saw a thread on THR and saw really low prices for what generally were reported as good quality guns adding up to a serious value to consider
Click to expand...

About the time I started wanting a full-size 9mm suppressor host as a range gun, along comes Tisas. I too had been unaware of the company. I now have the pistol and am waiting on the can.

It seems a good quality piece, for easy money. I'm glad I bought before the prices went up.
 
Hooda Thunkit said:
It seems a good quality piece, for easy money. I'm glad I bought before the prices went up.
Click to expand...

It’s statements like these that are probably increasing demand and therefore price. Just saying, you’re not helping my goal of obtaining more guns here.:)

Over my lifetime, a couple hundred dollars shouldn’t be a deal breaker.
 
My tea leaves are telling me that firearms distributors, retailers and potential purchasers are all noting the aggressive anti-gun action in several state legislatures.

My tea leaves are saying that people in several states are expecting more and more magazine capacity restrictions, Bruen not withstanding, and semi-auto firearms being declared the same as "assault weapons."

Finally, my tea leaves are saying that distributors and retailers are recognizing that large percentages of folks purchasing handguns now are focusing on single-stack semis (1911s) and revolvers.

I think 1911 prices, even the Turkish, Brazilian and Filipino 1911s, will continue to rise. As will the prices of all metal revolvers, as more folks won't want to be "stuck" with double-stack and polymer framed pistols that they won't be able to sell come the new legislation.

No one wants to be holding handguns they can't carry, take to the range or sell. No one believes SCOTUS will sort things out anytime soon, and all the patchwork rulings, injunctions and stays with the lower courts are just confusing everyone. So my take is that people are starting to hedge their bets, just in case. Which is driving the prices of certain guns way, way up. Hell, lever-action rifle prices are approaching the realm of insanity while everyone is dumping ARs up here.
 
Prices on Turkish-made AP5s are fantastic at the moment and have been for months. They are great value for money.

I think that Tisas realized that their brand had suddenly become a niche brand with the quality of their guns and figured they could still command the same market with increased margin. Frankly, they are still very good quality 1911s at an extremely reasonable price - even with the price hike.
 
Just get your 686. You won't regret it, it's a fine handgun, and although Tisas are GREAT (I dig them) they're not something I'd prioritize over a revolver. 7 shot revolver vs a 7-8 shot semi auto with a Parker finish? No.
Then again, been considering adding another Tisas to the flock. But if I were you just focus on your grail gun. Life is too short to delay that.
 
Googling "US gun sales trend" brings up sources that indicate gun sales are currently decreasing and increasing in the US.:confused:
 
The Tisas Stingray is a very appealing 1911 with the Ed Brown bobtail and it is a lot of gun for the money. I agree with former posts, that sellers are increasing the prices to reflect the quality and value of the gun. With rising popularity I expect the trend to continue. On the other hand, the S&W 686 is a very accurate and solid .357 Magnum revolver, with used pre-lock models selling for more than a new gun costs and used guns showing little depreciation.

S&W_686-4.jpg
 
No rhyme or reason for the increase in prices on 686s except for supply and demand. I bought one of those M&P 2.0 10MM to try it cause it fit my hand better and the rebate was a plus. Just a guess but I'm gonna say those low priced Tisas will creep up if they are truly a well made pistol. Introduce them at a low price to get your foot in the door and then creep those prices up to the norm. YMMV...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

C
  • Locked
Is gun-shopping like playing the stock market?
Replies
22
Views
695
Texpatriate
T
A
  • Locked
Any point in having the same gun in different barrel lengths if not a collector?
2
Replies
28
Views
1K
Beach Bum
Beach Bum
K
  • Locked
Gun Insurance !
Replies
5
Views
552
mp510
M
Styx
  • Locked
Leaving Gun in Car
2 3 4
Replies
92
Views
5K
JohnKSa
JohnKSa
bersaguy
  • Locked
Casting alloy...reading the tea leaves
Replies
16
Views
815
NuJudge
N
Back
Top