Kerry is well ahead in the Electoral College now!

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tulsamal

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I'm getting a sick feeling in my stomach. The site that has had Bush ahead for weeks changed the numbers today to Kerry 280, Bush 239. A bunch of formerly Bush states are now polling just barely for Kerry.

He HAS to do better in the next two debates! Just a tie would be fine. Heck a slight win for Kerry would be fine if Bush just looked and acted better.

And we better hope this "hidden earpiece" thing goes away or that will totally kill him. The site has a photo which does have some weird things happening on Bush's back. Maybe that is why he stuttered and looked confused a few times? He was trying to think and hearing a voice in his ear at the same time?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Gregg
 
I saw that predictor do the same thing while all of the polls had Bush leading. I wouldn't put much trust in it.
 
As I say again, think twice about that 3rd party vote........there is chance that Kerry could win this election.

That will not be good at all.
 
A liberal is heard from

The only one who anything wried going on in the debate was Kerry. He was caught smuggling something in that was forbidden by the rules. The President is still ahead iin all of the poles that matter by 2 points or so. Since republicans always poll lower then they do in the lection he is probably ahead by 6 to 8 points.
 
kbsrn

No, one poll has Bush behind by four points. One more bad debate and Bush might just go the way of his daddy.
 
Most polls are junk because they are biased to elicit a certain response. I wouldn't put much stake in them.

As always, never give up in a fight until the fight is over. Regardless of what the polls are the scores of yellow journalists might say, don't stop fighting for people on your side until all the votes are tallied and the election is final. After that, start all over again.
 
Pres04_WTA.png


http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html

So far so good. Their predictions are pretty good, and it's not based on polls.
 
Fortunately, America isn't dumb enough to elect that Kerry creature.

I personally think they are.
This is the same America that elected Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

And when you add in the regular stupid people, the felons in jain they are registering, the dead people they are registering and the underage voters they are registering, I think there's a real chance of these unethical people pulling it off.
 
So far so good. Their predictions are pretty good, and it's not based on polls.

I've been watching those futures markets as well. And I agree it Bush still looks good in that graph. But that was a darn hard drop after the first debate. I couldn't force myself to watch the second one but hopefully we'll see a rebound.

I don't think that people "would elect Kerry" either in any normal kind of election. He is quite a bit further left than the majority in the swing states. BUT I could see a bunch of "middle of the road voters" going to the poll and voting "against Bush." That's the basic Kerry strategy. It is a referendum on Bush's first four years and there is a lot to dislike there. Of course the down side to that type of campaign is we might end up with a President who actually doesn't come close to the majority's opinions! And I have _no idea_ how he would deal with the reality of Iraq since he has done so much to lower public approval of the war. He could live to regret that.

Gregg
 
At the electoral-votes.com, check the predicted final results link. Bush is up 320 to 203 as of 09 Oct 2004. I have no idea how he works those numbers. The site is runned by a Kerry supporter and at least he admits it.
 
I have been watching all the polls for weeks. I didn't think the electoral-vote.com was valid weeks ago, their numbers have been out of whack for weeks.

A poll I think is doing a better representation is :

http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

It isn't updated daily but, I think it is a better poll. I am watching for the next update which should be tomorow or the next day. The current does show the hit after the first debate.
 
This is the poll I trust.

I've been following it for weeks...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

It's not subject to massive fluxuations. Large numbers of people polled in a revolving, three-day poll.

Bush has regained much of what he lost in the first debate.

48 to 46.

Rick
 
If we become a communist country, can we be guaranteed the $10 per month average wage that those lucky people in the "workers paradise" of Cuba get. But, Fidel has only amassed for "himself" about $100 million while John Kerry has married into about 10X that amount. Does this mean we only get $1 per month? Personally, making $1 per month while the Heinz-Kerry's have about $1 trillion is a small price to show how inferior all of us are. I am prepared to bow, and fetch, and retch:barf:
 
I stick with rasmussenreports myself, they've been the most "stable" polling people so far, without any major jumps in either direction like in alot of the polls.
 
Fortunately, America isn't dumb enough to elect that Kerry creature.
Oh yes it is! I talked to a man at work a week or so ago. (2 strikes against him for me to try to convert, i.e. black and UAW member, both largely Democrat) He was being truly obnoxious with his mouth against Bush, so I grilled him about his beliefs. Funny, he doesn't believe in 90% of what Kerry believes in. But, by God, he's voting for him because he's a Democrat.:rolleyes:
 
The anti-war movement is almost as strong and vocal as they were in 1968. Maybe even better organized when it comes to the media and, obviously, the internet.

Lyndon Johnson, after seeing the enormous split in his party over Viet Nam, declared that he would not seek or accept the nomination for president.

It's been 36 years since I've seen this country so divided. Nothing will surprise me.
 
"Funny, he doesn't believe in 90% of what Kerry believes in. But, by God, he's voting for him because he's a Democrat."

"Just shut up and drink the Cool Aid and everything will be a-ok."

Yea, right!
 
Kerry would have to be at least 10 percentage points in the actual popular vote to win this election. Between the Repug electronic voting systems and shenanigans among election officials in Florida and elsewhere, I don't give him much of a chance. Big biz is not going to let the economy tank until after the election. And of course, the administration can always pull some phony alert or cook some war news to sway some of the security sheeple.

All of this is just as well, IMO. I don't like Kerry a bit, and when we end up leaving Iraq without acheiving any kind of goal and after the economy slips into the next recession, the neocon philosophy will have a wooden stake in the heart. Can't wait.
 
the Repug electronic voting systems and shenanigans among election officials in Florida and elsewhere, I don't give him much of a chance.
You mean the punch card ballots approved by florida Democrats and the disputed districts in Florida that were run by Democrats. LOL:neener:
 
It was asked, "Do they have a map...?"

I've seen one there...

The electoral college issue is something that the Demos fear this time around. I have seen quite a few times when Demo Talking Heads will say that the polling is close, but when an astute interviewer asks them about the electoral college, the Demos shy away...

Here is what Rasmussen has on the EC

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral College Projection.htm

and here

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral College Table.htm

Bush 240
Kerry 169
Toss up 129

BTW, Rasmussen just moved Florida from Toss up to "Leans Bush." This means Dubya has a slight advantage near the outside of the margin of error there, or something thereabouts.

Perhaps his appearances there during the three hurricanes has helped...although the stress detracted from last week's debate performance, some argue.

Rick
 
Ah, Then Comes the Rise...

... of the neo-Comms(aka Democratic-Socialists).


Malone,

Go on down to the local library and read up on the types of governments and the political structures there-in.

Neither of the two majors(parties that is) are anywhere near what was originally created by their respective founders, but the Dem's are a far sight worse in operation and intent(not that the Reps are a bunch of angles either).

Constitution party comes about as close as it most likely should be, then again I seriously doubt any of the founders of the country could manage to get elected in today's political climate.
 
You mean the punch card ballots approved by florida Democrats and the disputed districts in Florida that were run by Democrats. LOL
No, I mean Diebold and the disenfranchisement of black voters and disqualifying voter registrations because they're on the wrong paper stock, etc.

Neither of the two majors(parties that is) are anywhere near what was originally created by their respective founders, but the Dem's are a far sight worse in operation and intent(not that the Reps are a bunch of angles either).
Let's see: Andrew Jackson, pathological racist and murderer. slave owner. Author of the Trail of Tears. Dictatoral leader and usurper of the Supreme Court. I'd have to say the Dems have at least improved a little.

Abraham Linclon: Unconstitutional usurper of dictatorial power, elected by a minority. Oversaw the largest division of the country in history. Servant of wealthy northern industrialists, scourge to agricultural economy of the south. I'd have to say the Reps haven't changed much at all...

I disagree, the Reps are a bunch of angles: Right angles.

Ba-dump-bump.
 
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