Ok, what's up with 'bird flu'?

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The military might be capable of enforcing a quarantine on an isolated area such as a subdivision with limited corridors of egress - but larger area such as a medium sized city or a state no way (well may be Hawaii). The military isn't effective in Iraq at controlling population movement and we are at least as inventive/creative at foiling the inconvenient as the Iraqis.

Several have nailed it this is just the Bush Cabals latest attempt at scaring the sheeple into giving up another layer of freedom in their pathetic search for complete security - just like peeling an onion.
That's Ethiopia. Drive across Iowa some time, and you'll see real agriculture in action.
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Yes, but only at the cost of massive subsidies to produce product neither we nor the rest of the world can consume.
 
This avian flu, if it mutates just right
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As the weeks go by it appears less and less to be an if but increasingly a when? They (the feds) are already researching the 1918 flu pandemic for tips on how to cope with this "new" one. Where I work, plans for dealing with a pandemic are already being seriously discussed. My only question is will it peak this year or two years from now? My money is on two years from now with just a "minor" impact this year but increasing next year.
 
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos.

Yes, in small numbers and in people who have VERY close contact with birds.
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Unfortunately, there is one family in Vietnam that has had no known contact with birds of any type. 50% mortality in the family.

20th century pandemics occurred in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Only the 1918 pandemic had catastrophic fatality rates.

There are so many variables that no one can predict when or how bad. It might be this year, next year, fifty years, or a hundred years.
 
I am glad to see many agree with what I was trying to say, that Posse Comitatus being repealed or altered will not stop any pandemic. It's not like soldiers aren't gonna get sick. Which left me wondering why Bush and this administration, whom by their own admission have been talking about this for a month or more, would want to repeal the law. Then I saw this tidbit:

"I think the president ought to have all options on the table," Bush said, then corrected himself, "all assets on the table -- to be able to deal with something this significant."
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:what:

Freudian slip? I know it may not seem like much of a difference but in military speak options and assets are a huge difference.
 
Is their any doubt in your mind King George is doing everything in his power to destroy the Constitution and setup a Police State?
 
Source? I'd like to follow up on that.
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos.
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I just watched a news report saying the same thing. The 1918 flu was an avian flu also, only 1% mutation was required to transfer to humans. NO vacine exists but they are working on it. About 100 million died from the last avian flu pandemic (no one was immune then either) but was a count made of 3rd world countries? Bare in mind, our medical technology is much more advanced now.
 
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos.
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That's not really the issue though...There has been a lot of bad information going around about what is an "avian" flu. So I'll try to sum this up as simply as possible.

Influenza (or flu) is always an "avian flu". Birds have every type of influenza known. Most don't kill the birds. They live infected with it just fine. And they spread it to each other and all of us by crapping everywhere. Everywhere there is bird crap there is probably some influenza. Even whales and seals get influenza from bird-crap. Humans, so far, have only been infected in large (epidemic/pandemic proportions) from 3 of the 16 different types of "avian flus".

The big hub-bub is that there is evidence that an additional bird virus will infect us. THAT is the worry and a good cause for alarm because it's a type of influenza that can cause very serious infection in birds, and based on a limited outbreak in 1997, a very serious infection in humans. Hence the hype, hub-bub, worry, terror, etc. It is also very different from the 1918 flu...

The different types of influenza are usually based on the sequence of two proteins that the virus makes: hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. You'll see references to H2N3 and H2N2 and H1N1. They are all the different versions of those two proteins. Without getting two much into what the proteins do, they are essential in the virus infecting us. The virus sets up shop in our lungs and starts destroying them. To beat the infection our body makes proteins called antibodies which block those viral proteins from functioning. However, the virus evolves to once again hide somewhat from the antibodies (whether you prefer by natural selection or intelligent design). That's why every year there is a flu season. Invariably some of us get stuck in bed, some feel like they're going to die, and many many people actually die a year from influenza and subsequent illness from a secondary infection. They are usually very young or very old and their bodies can't fight the influenza effectively before it causes serious damage to the lungs. Once you have serious lung damage, pneumonia typically will set in and cause death.

The spanish flu was of course an "avian flu" like every other flu. It was designated H1N1. It killed a lot more young adults-middle aged people than influenza normally does. For some reason it was more virulent. The Oct 7 issue of the journal Science has a research article about why it was virulent where researches remade the 1918 strain and infected mice to explore how it was different.

This new scary "avian flu" is designtated H5N1. Compared to other flus birds infected with H5N1 die in record numbers. There are two types of H5N1, "highly pathogenic" and "low pathogenic". The "highly pathogenic" strain has a mutation in its hemagglutinin protein (that's the H in H5N1) that creates a unique function that makes it especially lethal. Instead of the virus being stuck in a certain type of tissue (like the lung in humans), the highly pathogenic HA can be activated anywhere in the body. (The spanish flu does NOT have this mutation. It made mince-meat out of peoples' lungs but by most accounts was not systemic). This, among many other factors, contributes significantly to the virulence of H5N1.

The scare is that unlike the normal flu viruses humans are used to H1NX H2NX and H3NX which are respiratory diseases, H5 could theoretically be a systemic disease. Some isolates of H5N1 when introduced to mice (who have a similar response to influenza as humans do) cause systemic disease and high lethality. To be fair, some of the isolates only caused mild respiratory infections in mice. Therefore other factors besides the H5 with its systemic potential is responsible for actually causing virulent systemic disease.

However, if we do end up with a highly contageous human-to-human H5N1 that has the systemic potential factor and those miscelaneous factors required for virulence, it will make the spanish flu look about as bad as a head-cold. IF IF IF IF IF IF IF.

I do however have my tin-foil hat at the ready. If I'm dying I'll pretty much try anything just in case.

Oh and besides eating bird crap, the most common way people get even "airboune" influenza is picking their nose, rubbing their eyes etc, before washing their hands and not from aerosol particles. I'd recommend rather than stockpiling tamiflu (oseltamivir) which will probably do as much good as tic-tacs, is a hearty supply of 70% isopropanol or ethanol alcohol and squirt bottles. 70% ethanol/isopropyl alcohol is virucidal for influenza. That way you can liberally spray down everything you come in contact with and your hands frequently and massively lower your risk of influenza infection.

Just a tip.

References:

why the spanish flu H1N1 is so virulent:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/310/5745/77

H5N1 replicates systemically:
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/full/73/4/3184

general info about the bird flu:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

Influenza is an "emerging disease" as there are so many that we have yet to get infected with. Makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside =)
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol4no3/webster.htm

more can be found using google etc, but be wary of the source...
 
EasternShore--

I agree. The army will NOT stop a pandemic. And if 1918 is any example, it's probably going to hit THEM harder than anyone else...
 
A word about transmission--

I think my previous post has a problem in the way it reads. I don't want to give the impression that most human influenza is transmitted by bird-feces. Most human influenza infections arise from other humans. However, at some point the virus jumped from birds to humans. Many times it jumps first to pigs (being mammals therefore have far more genetic similarity to us than birds) and then from pigs to humans (but occasionally straight from birds and their crap). Sometimes it retains an ability to infect from human to human (mostly through coughing and touching doorhandles etc and picking our noses as opposed to eating our crap =). And then it's go time...
 
Oh and besides eating bird crap, the most common way people get even "airboune" influenza is picking their nose, rubbing their eyes etc, before washing their hands and not from aerosol particles. I'd recommend rather than stockpiling tamiflu (oseltamivir) which will probably do as much good as tic-tacs, is a hearty supply of 70% isopropanol or ethanol alcohol and squirt bottles. 70% ethanol/isopropyl alcohol is virucidal for influenza. That way you can liberally spray down everything you come in contact with and your hands frequently and massively lower your risk of influenza infection.
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Very informative. Thank you.

So it seems to me that if the news suddenly starts talking about an epidemic, the best thing one can do is to hole up at home, reduce contact with outsiders to an absolute minimum, and wash your hands frequently with 70%+ alcohol.

...and no nose-picking! :neener:
 
Flechette--
yeah but the trouble with holeing up is that the virus can incubate up to 7 days and takes a while to kill. This makes for a long illness period and therefore a long time before it "burns itself out". So you'll probably be stuck for at least a few months holed up. You're absolutely going to need to treat your water in case city services start to fail. So how does one treat water for that long? I'm curious because I don't know. I'd guess boil it but unfortunately for me that involves a gas stove or electricity, both of which I'm afraid won't be running for me.

Also I'm not sure how long you can use iodine capsules for? I'm sure there's a limit.

Also no eating bird crap :neener:
 
water, viruses & transmembrane proteins

You're absolutely going to need to treat your water in case city services start to fail. So how does one treat water for that long?
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IMO, this is a relevant question.

Just to put water in perpective...

The quickest way to death for humans (and most other aerobic creatures) is deprivation of oxygen. Four minutes without oxygen, thermodynamic equilibrium is reached, and life is over. (For an individual, of course. Others will continue.) Said O2 deprivation (mainly to brain) can occur for any variety of reasons: respiratory abatement (caused by, say, lung tissue being transformed to mincemeat by a mutated avian virus; failure of blood flow to brain caused by abatement of blood flow caused by rupture of heart or major arteries by bullets, knives, swords, that sort of thing.

After O2 deprivation (aside from being struck by a moving freight train or even a mere 18 wheeler, or a fanatical, fundamentalist terrorist wearing a dynamite shirt, or hypothermia caused by the fact that you bugged out in the middle of winter in (choose one or more: Alberta, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Idaho...) without your extra layers (fleece, sleeping bag, rain gear), the quickest way to death would be to go without water for a few days. Since you are between 70 & 85% water, doing without will spell your demise.

A distant third (or is this a fifth by now?) would be being without food. That could take as long as 10 days. Not as a important in my book as oxygen, warmth, water & sufficient rnds to ward off wierdos.

So, given that water is on the short list, I think your question is a good one.

Hmm. How to reduce viral loads in your water should city services fail. (See NOLA Katrina; note that Wilma is on the way, and Alpha could be next, perhaps followed by H5N1)

A few years ago, when the smallest threat to my drinking water while backpacking was giardia or bacteria, I filtered water with a Pur filter.

But they're reportedly no good at removing viruses. (In particular, iirc, they won't take out hepatitis A or B, so probably won't take out H5N1 or other flus.)

Dang. Short of boiling to disrupt their little transmembrane envelope proteins or core proteins, I'm not sure what to do.

Anybody got Hso's contact info? If we could get him to this thread, I'm willing to bet a snickers bar he'd have a suggestion.

Nem
 
Jmurman, that's an awesome page.

In the wake of what we saw during Katrina & Rita, & with Wilma on the way,
I'm planning to offer a Survival 101 workshop in my community.

That page will be a resource.

Thanks.

Nem
 
Ok, lets think about this whole thing.

First, if there were ever a pandemic big enough to warrant quarantine and the calling in of the army, this country would probably fall apart as we know it. Why? Think of how self-sufficient we are. Could you just cut off your community and live for months on your own? We are too dependent on everyone else in this world. What are people going to do when basic needs can't come across borders for months? You would hope we would adapt and figure something out, but how are you going to move the tons and tons of goods across without some contamination from the people doing the moving?

Second, if the issue above wasn't such a big deal, I say rely on the militia to take care of business. That is right, communities form their own check points and enforce them. Nothing would encourage consistency and compliance by the local militia more than knowing if you let this schmuck through, your family might die. Place the responsibility of enforcement on the people. If you let people through, your community dies. I would rather not have to rely on some 19 year old who is really just thinking about how his family is on the other side of the country and they might be dead to keep my neighborhood safe. Heck, even use local law enforcement as the "commanders" of these militia teams. Sure you have a centralized command, but leave the real grunt work to civilians. People will make shifts and make this thing happen.

That is what I would do if it were to happen. Organize enough people locally to tell the government, "Leave this to us, tell us the rules, but we will be enforcing them thank you. Your soldiers who just flew in from the other side of the country can stay there."
 
El Rojo said:
First, if there were ever a pandemic big enough to warrant quarantine and the calling in of the army, this country would probably fall apart as we know it. Why? Think of how self-sufficient we are. Could you just cut off your community and live for months on your own? We are too dependent on everyone else in this world. What are people going to do when basic needs can't come across borders for months? You would hope we would adapt and figure something out, but how are you going to move the tons and tons of goods across without some contamination from the people doing the moving?
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Nah, wouldn't fall apart. You'd be surprised how easily people adapt to
soldiers in the streets. The thing about a pandemic is that most people
"bug in" at home. Why risk leaving a household where you're currently
not infected and run around outside and risk coming into contact with
the bugs?

Yes, I agree completely that people need other people. The people who
"go it alone" into the mountains with 6 months of supplies will typically
come back or be dead by the 7th.

A pandemic will slow things down and wreak havoc with the economy.
But, just like humanity has done numerous times before, we will come
back. Likewise, a pandemic will not hit globally all at the same time. As
one area is recovering another will be hit. You're looking at about two
weeks of problems followed by a few weeks of recovery back up to speed.

If our grandparents and great grandparents could come back from the
Spanish Flu in 1918, we can manage this one! Just be prudent in stocking
up on your supplies. If you live in a colder climate during the typical
flu season, this would mean making sure you have some backup heat
in case the propane guy can't come out to fill your tank.

Like Katrina should have shown people, lack of advance planning and our
own stupid reactions to things are what can harm us as well.
 
Besides doubling the thickness of the tinfoil hat, one thing we should all do is strengthen our imune system. Increase the ability of our bodies to fight the virus, once acquired. Sanitation, nutrition, vitamin supplements, are all important steps we can all take. It seems to me that these viruses thrive in the less developed countries, where standards of living are lower: food, water, sanitation, disease, medical care, are not on par with, let's say, the US ones. The 1918 outbreak came after the world was ravaged -and weakened- by four years of war, starvation, malnutrition, and people close together (refugees, army camps). The flu kills mostly old people and young children, those with already weakened imune systems. Eating a fast/junk food diet doesn't help...
 
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