Which of the following do you think will happen regarding an AWB?

Bought a new black rifle today, and some mags, and will get more and more ammo for all my tools over the next few months.

Hope Not

Even with the majority, and assuming that all dems vote for it in both houses, the dems still do not have enough votes to get it to the president, unless a bunch of RINOs vote for it. I personally think they have bigger fish to fry in the next couple of years. Now, if they pull a supper majority in 2008, and get "Hillarity" or "Osama" in to the WH, then we will definately see something passed.

shield20,

Is there a lake near by that it "fell into"? Cause i fully belive the next AWB will make them illegal to own.

Not sure if it will be in '07, '09, or '11... but I'm pretty sure it will happen.

So given that... I'm not sure how to answer the poll. Yes I belive it will happen... but not at all sure which pres will do the signing.

wheres the Democrats will not propose such legislation option?

Not sure which answer to put down either. No question it WILL go thru the House and Senate---but they won't even do this until they get the Democratic President in 2008---then it will breeze thru.

Yeah, there won't be a sunset clause in the next one.

wheres the Democrats will not propose such legislation option?

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There is no question that the Democrats will propose the legislation. They have been proposing it every year since 1989, so I don't see a change now.

The questions as I see them are:

1) Is the vote in the House or the Senate close enough that the Judiciary Committee will decide to risk a floor vote?

My best guess here is YES. Both committees are stacked with people who hate guns philosophically and without regard for political pragmatism. They wouldn't need too much encouragement to try for a floor vote even if the numbers were a little weak.

2) Will it win the floor vote in either the Senate or the House?

Couldn't say. It isn't as good in the Senate as some have hinted. How the bill is phrased and what it does will have a big impact, as will how much heat the Senators feel from their constituents on the issue.

Without knowing those two things, any guess here would be just wild speculation.

About the only chance we would have is for a Larry Craig led filibuster...

I think it's no question they'll try whether they have the numbers or not. As Mr. Roberts notes, a number of those in high postions just get all itchy to think of armed peons, so I'd say the chances of it getting out of commitee are high.

I don't know on the floor votes. Good news is it seems at least some of the (R)s that were voted out were RINOs anyhow, and a goodly number of the new Dems at least claim to be relatively conservative, so it might not be *that* much worse. Heck, wasn't the Montana guy saying his opposition to the PATRIOT Act was based on the 2A?

I'm not optimistic about Bush refusing to sign it. He's proven repeatedly he's willing to sell out his base even when they're screaming at him. If he can ignore half the country screaming over the border and "no amnesty" he for sure can ignore the RKBA crowd.

IF they manage to get it past the floor -- not something I'm inclined to give up as an agiven -- then they'll still have to have a grandfather clause. Even CA hasn't gone door to door to pick up pre-ban ARs.. they know they'd have a shooting war on their hands if they tried it. And yes, for all the talk about keyboard commandos, I'm certain of that.

Yeah, there won't be a sunset clause in the next one.

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Uh, the last one only passed because of that clause. And that was a more solidly Democrat dominated and anti-gun legislature.

I can't imagine it won't be introduced. There will be a strong urge to reward certain loyal constituents, punish the "gun lobby", and, I believe mostly, to embarrass Bush by forcing him to either sign it or go back on his promise. It would be a very stupid thing for the leadership to allow it to get to the floor, and probably cost them dearly in '08, but Democrats have never been known as the smart party.

Whats to stop them from agreeing to a bigger better more comprehensive AWB that has a sunset provision. Once they get it passed they can then
tack on some provision hidden in some important funding legislation say for the military that eliminates the sunset provision. Sure the liberals would like a full blown gun ban. They would introduce it in a heart beat if they think it will pass. Since they can't always get what they want they compromise.
It's kind of like the old negotiating mindset the USSR liked to use against the
West. "Whats mine is mine, whats yours is negotiable". They are always willing to compromise and say "oh well, we'll agree to just banning some of what we asked for as a compromise, see what good people we are". Anything is better than nothing. We are being compromised into the Gulag.

The only real compliment that I can think of to pay these evil rat bastards is they are persistent. Month after month, year after year these
commies keep introducing bill after bill , resolution after resolution all aiming at
gutting our right to bear arms. And they know that 99.9% of these bills are doomed. Yet they keep on proposing them.

And they keep proposing them because they are quite happy passing even 1 in a 1000. Any progress towards total disarmament of the populace is acceptable, even if it's miniscule by itself. They know that time and sheer volume of nitpicking laws will eventually give them victory. With the exception of the sunsetting of the first AWB we have had virtually no luck in
removing from the books any of the thousands of laws already in place.

It's about time and patience and the anti 2A's seem to have plenty of patience.

I'll go out on a limb and predict an AWB will not be passed in the next two years. As much as I dislike Nancy Pelosi, I think she is too savvy a career politician to allow it to happen. AWB bills will be introduced and passed out of committee to reward the habitual gun-grabbers. But I bet Pelosi manages the floor process to ensure only draconian bills, without any moderating compromises, actually come to a vote. The bills will be defeated, leaving everyone with some sense of accomplishment.

If the Democrats can keep from screwing up for two years, hold both houses of Congress, and get a President elected, THEN I worry about an AWB.

Speculation

Anyone here wanna bet on whether there will or won't be several high profile shooting tragedies early in 2007?

The next "Sunset Clause" will be for the Republic.

One word: Bolt-action.

It depends on who wins the post-victory power struggles.

If they are smart, they will lay low on the guns issue until after 2008.

It seems the key tactics in politics these days are:
Rule #1: whatever you do, don't inflame the opposition's hard-core base
Rule #2: try to rile up your own base as best you can without violating rule #1

If I was a Democrat strategist right now, I would maintain the pretense that my party has backed off on gun bans. I'd figure trying for another AWB now would violate Rule #1.

Once I got Hilary in the White House and a Democrat congress, then I'd drop the pretenses and take off the gloves: full Bolshevist state socialization of all human activities, turn over all military, executive, and law enforcement powers to the UN, and ban civilian possession of anything more lethal than a butter knife.

However, some of the gun grabber crowd are real fanatics on the issue and some of them are in charge of powerful legislative committees. They will at least propose some of this stuff. If there was another high profile mass public shooting involving a firearm that can be somehow construed as an assault weapon (ie; anything other than a flintlock muzzle loader), then the crazies would leap to the forefront and try to pass the thing. With enough public support, it could go through and I would not count on Bush to veto it if there is widespread support.

Barring such an event to sway uninformed public opinion, I imagine cooler heads will prevail and they will hold off until the time is fully ripe.

Lotsa folks here have been promising us (before the election) that gun control was off the Democrats radar. Did they turn their radars back on ?

Any of the options are perfectly plausible. The difference on which one proves true will be this:

How much time, effort, and, unfortunately, money we as gun owners are willing to put into the fight!


So, before you get all wild buying guns, magazines, and ammo:
Jion the NRA, GOA, CCRKBA, etc. Study up on your congressmans voting record, buy some paper and stamps, put thier office contact info on your fridge under a magnet.

No matter how we slice it, it's gonna get rough, wether now or in 2008 is a moot point.

Just be ready to dig in for a real good scrap.

Option 4 is ahead. Bullpucky!!! Option 5 CAN be ours IF we want it.

I've been reading threads on the "woe is me" theme since wednesday. No more.
We got whipped, period. Knocked down real good in fact. SO HERE'S WHAT WE DO:
Let's get up, pull up our pants, spit out the tooth we just lost, look 'em square in the eye, and let them know if that's the best they've got they picked the wrong fight!

Ol' Chuckie can smirk all he wants. He's picked the wrong group to smirk at.

If the Democrats can keep from screwing up for two years, hold both houses of Congress, and get a President elected, THEN I worry about an AWB.

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That's where my thoughts are.

As has been noted, there were a lot of Dems elected who claim to support the 2A, and are in some cases more conservative than the Republicans they are replacing. It's very important to remember that the Democrats did not win this election; the GOP lost it. So if in the next 2 years the gun control leadership tries to bring AWB II to the floor-either floor-then 1 of 2 things will happen: The 2A Dems will vote against it, showing their existing base that they had kept their promises, and pulling in more pro-gun votes the next time (in 2 short years, for House members), or, they support the legislation and get their butts handed to them the next election for being "stealth" candidates-not to mention putting a Democratic presidency in jeopardy.

Keep in mind, a lot has changed since the AWB. How many states were CCW at the time? The country has had a lot of debates about the place of firearms in our society, and despite the cries of the media every time another state passes CCW ("There will be blood in the streets!!! Drivers will shoot each other in road rage!!!!"), the crime rate in each state has dropped.

But just in case, make sure you support the NRA!

Considering Bush promised he will sign any gun control legislation that comes accross his desk fromt he democratic party. He's a back stabbing SOB! HE's turncoating his word of he will not sign any new gun control or get rid of any existing gun control. His lying ass should be impeached,and Hillary should be shot before that bitch even has a chance to get into office. PArdon the harsh words but this crap as of late is REALLY getting under my skin especially after watching the video of the 70 something year old woman being beaten nearly to death in NewOrleans because she owned a revolver.

Rev. Michael

I'm sure they'll get one past the house and the senate, now whether Bush signs it will count on a few things.

If its too severe (no grandfathering, a complete semi-auto ban, banning of common centerfire rifle calibers, any form of confiscation) I don't think Bush will sign it.

If its simply a re-run of the '94 ban (only without a sunset ... they won't fall for that twice) I figure Bush will sign that.

If they dangle something Bush really really wants (like the tax cuts or something he wants for Iraq or something like that) I figure he'd sign all but the most draconian of AWBs.


HOWEVER, there's been enough supposedly pro-gun Democrats elected now that maybe just maybe there won't be the votes to get it passed (but I ain't holdin' my breath).


But it is clear the Democrats want another AWB ... I don't buy this notion that they "learned their lesson in 2000" and "have abandoned gun control because it is a losing issue"

official platform of the Democrat Party

Page 22

Crime and violence. While terrorism poses an especially menacing threat to our nation, a strong America must remain vigilant against the scourge of homegrown crime as well. We are proud that Democrats led the fight to put more than 100,000 cops on the beat through the COPS program, and we will continue our steadfast support for COPS and community policing. To keep our streets safe for our families, we support tough punishment of violent crime and smart efforts to reintegrate former prisoners into our communities as productive citizens. We will crack down on the gang violence and drug crime that devastate so many communities, and we will increase drug treatment, including mandatory drug courts and mandatory drug testing for parolees and probationers, so fewer crimes are committed in the first place. We support the rights of victims to be respected, to be heard, and to be compensated. We will help break the cycle of domestic violence by punishing offenders and standing with victims. We will protect Americans' Second Amendment right to own firearms, and we will keep guns out of the hands of criminals and terrorists by fighting gun crime, reauthorizing the assault weapons and closing the gun show loophole, as President Bush proposed and failed to do.

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If they didn't want a new AWB why would it be part of their core document?