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WASHINGTON -- The race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination has become wide open, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News
Of greater concern for Republicans generally, however, is the party's weak state heading into the 2008 election. By 52% to 31%, Americans say they want Democrats to win the presidency next year.
Americans give the Republican Party their most negative assessment in the two-decade history of the Journal/NBC survey, and by 49% to 36% they say the Democratic Party more closely shares their values and positions on the issues.
"The political environment for Republicans continues to erode," says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. A long-term worry for the party: Republican gains among the Hispanic constituency, long a target for President Bush, have vanished at a time when Washington is enmeshed in a debate over immigration policy.
The party's woes can be partly traced to the political decline of President Bush. His approval rating in the Journal/NBC survey has fallen to its lowest ever, 29%, while 66% of Americans disapprove of his performance. The telephone survey of 1,008 adults, conducted June 8-11, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Mr. Bush's decline from 35% approval in April reflects diminished support from his core constituency: Among Republicans, approval of the president's job performance has dropped to 62% from 75%. It also reflects bleak assessments of his new strategy in Iraq: By 54% to 10%, Americans say the situation there has gotten worse rather than better in recent months.
The poll hardly brings reassurance for the Democrats, who control both the House and Senate. Amid political gridlock on domestic issues and inconclusive debates over Iraq, the approval rating for Congress stands lower than Mr. Bush's, at 23%. Just 41% of Americans say their representative in Congress deserves re-election, comparable to levels before Democrats swept Republicans out of power in November.
Yet the Democrats' overall strategic posture as 2008 approaches remains far stronger. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, who has strengthened her lead in the race for the Democratic nomination, leads Mr. Giuliani by 48% to 43% in a potential general-election matchup after trailing by a similar margin three months ago. Despite Mr. Thompson's rise among Republican contenders, he trails the second-place Democratic candidate, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, by 50% to 31% in a hypothetical November 2008 contest.
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Among Democrats, Mrs. Clinton draws 39% of the vote, up from 36% in April, while Mr. Obama receives 25%, down from 31%. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, receives 15%, with Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware lagging behind at 4%.
Mrs. Clinton's standing in the Democratic race follows her performances in televised debates and an attempt to downplay differences with Mr. Obama over Iraq. Though her leading rival courts Democratic voters by noting that he opposed from the start a war she voted to authorize, she enjoys a wider lead among Democrats backing an immediate troop withdrawal than among those who oppose one.
Moreover, on both of the rank and file's top two characteristics for their party's nominee -- capacity to bring about change and experience for the presidency -- Mrs. Clinton holds an edge. Fully 71% of Democrats rate the former first lady highly for being "knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency," while 30% rate the first-term Sen. Obama highly on that dimension.
"Her competence campaign is working," Mr. Newhouse said.
Yet the same dynamic hasn't succeeded in stemming the decline of Sen. McCain, who was once viewed as the 2008 Republican front-runner on the strength of his 2000 campaign. Rank-and-file Republicans rate knowledge and experience their top priority in a 2008 nominee, and 62% rate the longtime Arizona senator highly on that score. Yet Mr. McCain receives comparatively low marks for being an "inspirational and exciting" candidate, and for sharing the party's positions on the issues.
Among those profiting at Mr. McCain's expense is Mr. Thompson. The actor and former lawmaker is recognized by seven in 10 Republicans, and he stands as the early favorite among the one-third of Republicans who call themselves "very conservative." Notes Mr. Newhouse: "Republican voters have gotten their first look at Fred Thompson, and he looks pretty good."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118177312675434460.html?mod=blogs
I hate to say it but it looks like the Republican ship has finally sunk. The American people have finally come to their senses, and realized the wrong direction this country has been heading in since 2000. Even Fred Thompson trails Obama in head to head match ups. In a Democrat will win the election in 2008. So write in who you want to win, since it really will not matter in the end.
