Historically have ammo prices ever dropped?

Absolutely

If you figure in inflation, I think 9x19 was expensive back in the day.

I can buy 22's for less now that 20 or 30 years ago. I have a brick of Federal Lighting's from the 60's that is priced $1.39 on each box. A discount store close by has 550 bulk 22's for under $9.

....

Prior to '86, joe and jane non-ffl really couldn't order in bulk by mail order.
We won back some pre-68 rights there, and ammo is quite cheaper in some respect. And there is--ohhh--the 'Walmart Effect' which gives things like 100 count 12 ga shells for <15 bucks on sale. It is trending upwards now, for many reasons--but still pretty good considering.

in 1955, I paid 50 cents a box for .22LR

...I was 10 years old, and carried my soon-to-be stepfather's Rem pump down to the NG Armory once a week for marksmanship training and practice. Six blocks, by myself. Nobody blinked twice.

That's about the equivalent of $4.50 - 5.00 per box now.

Jim H.

Back when I first started shooting handguns in the 80's factory ammo was so expensive I almost never bought it. I started off reloading right from the start with a little Lee Loader.

If I remember correctly, I was paying about $8.00 a box for factory reload 38 wadcutters. That doesn't sound expensive, until you consider I was making about a third what I am now. I did buy a box of Winchester Silvertip 9mm that I think I paid $14.95 for.

One big thing is then, there wasn't any such thing as WWB, Rem-UMC, Blazer Brass, American Eagle, or if there was, I never heard of it. The only ammo you could buy was factory fresh, top of the line stuff, except for some "factory reloads."

I don't know if 9mm is a good example.

Although 9mm is an old round, prior to the Wondernine craze, it was fairly rare in the US. There were Lugers here, but no one ever shot those much, so about the only other 9mm handgun in much use in the US was the Hi Power.

As more people began buying 9mm hand guns, ammo makers increased their capacity, and consumers benefitted from economy of scale.

The same thing happened with 40 S&W. When a new round comes out, it is more expensive at first, and then price seems to drop.

If you look at perennial favorites like 45 ACP, 357 mag, 308 win, etc, i can't think of ammo prices ever dropping.

In 1980-81 the only 7.62X39 was Lapua priced at $1.25 a round.
There was no generic 9mm Parabellum, you could buy Federal, Winchester Super X, or Remington at about $12.00 a Box. Same with .45 Auto @ $16.00 a box and this was all hardball.

Ammunition prices are dictated by supply and right now supply is low.

One form or other, I have paid about $11 per box (give or take a buck or two) of 45ACP since about 1998. Back then I was buying Winchester and today I am buying Blazer Brass. Since I guess people regard BB as lower on the food chain than Winchester, maybe it means the price has gone up, but BB shoots the same.

9mm has gone way up since 98. Perhapes this means 9mm has room to drop, while 45 does not.

If you look at perennial favorites like 45 ACP, 357 mag, 308 win, etc, i can't think of ammo prices ever dropping.

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Sure they did, and less than 2 years ago. .45ACP WWB 100r packs at Wally world for $19.99. S&B .45ACP at my local shop for $9.50 a box. Before that, you'd have been hard-pressed to find .45ACP for less than $12-$14+ a box, and even then you'd have to look at the price adjusted for inflation.

Will prices get back down to that level? Maybe, adjusting for inflation. I think ammo will definitely get cheaper than it is now, if not back down to the levels it was a couple years ago.

12 years ago I bought my first 9mm and I was paying $9.97 a box of 50 for Federal American Eagle 147-gr FMJs. I found one of the boxes the other day in use holding bulk WWB repacked in trays. IIRC Fed Am Eagle was a relatively "new" budget brand then. As recently as 3 years ago CCI BB 9mm was $5 a box. Now it's up to $8 a box of 50 CCI BB's.

I also found some 1994 headstamp Winchester White Box .45-230Gr FMJs that had red primer sealer. Priced at $14.95 a box. With those crappy punched cardboard trays.

Nowadays, pistols don't even get sealed primers anymore it seems like. They always used to.

So yes, ammo was expensive. Then it got cheaper once competition and demand picked up. Now it's ramping up in price again as the demand has increased to match production.

Will we ever see "cheap" ammo again? Speaking for one who remembers $.08/rd .308 surplus... (that was LAST YEAR!) I WISH but am doubtful.

I think ammo will definitely get cheaper than it is now, if not back down to the levels it was a couple years ago.

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Why would ammo prices go down?

Raw materials prices are up, and fuel prices for delivery are up. I don't see why either would go down significantly. If anything, I think prices will continue to escalate.

After Bush leaves office and we quit mucking around in Iraq, we may see a temporary decrease in ammo prices because ammo makers would be able to shift production back to the civilian market, and we might also get some imports of 7.62x39 back into the country. But that would only be temporary. The Chinese and Indians are buying a lot of metal these days, and their demand won't change.

Here's a good one: on page 23 of the July 1957 issue of GUNS magazine (I love that they make the issues from half a century ago available as PDFs), contributor Robert J. Kindley wrote, "With the cost of rifle ammunition at better than twenty cents a round, bore sighting is a must."

According to the online Inflation Calculator ( http://www.westegg.com/inflation ), twenty cents a round in 1957 works out to be $1.43 in 2006 dollars. Right now, http://www.ammoman.com lists a box of 30.06 Federal Gold Medal Match 168-grain boat-tail hollowpoint at $1.20 per round, and you can get deals that are much better than that.

Ammo is spendy now, but things could be, and have been, quite a bit worse.

Generally, prices contiue to rise. Seasonally, though, some ammo does go down for the short term...Slugs/buckshot/SOME rifle rounds go down after deer season.

Now, .22LR ammo is still farily low. I found a couple of boxes of Federal .22LR'S marked $0.99/box. They were from 1970 or so, according to Federal. High velocity plain lead solids. Also found a couple of boxes of Winchester "Super-X", IIRC, from the same vintage. Hi-Vel jacketed solid, marked $1.19/box.

So, wathc the end-of-season sales, and stock up accordingly.

I'm so tired of making economic arguments.
when demand goes down so will price.

On a personal level, my ammo cost when WAY down recently...I bought a lee turret press. I can shoot for free on a Saturday afternoon with 4 friends (they gave me a case of beer each and load up on my ammo...so $120 for miller lite and it more than covered the two 50cal GI ammo boxes, one full of 45acp the other full of 9mm.)

start reloading, it will change your life.

On another note, I have simply tightened up at the range. Back when 7.62 x 39 or .308 was cheap- I'd blaze away. Now I still shoot, but I shoot less and focus more on accuracy.

I wouldn't shoot till your stocks are dry. But yes, there is hope for prices to drop a bit when the war ends.

Why would ammo prices go down?

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Because the price of the finished good is not proportion to the cost of the raw materials? Which means that once demand slacks, so will price.

Back in the early 90's a good price for 7.62X39 was something like $89/case. Then after the Olympic Arms deal happened (they made a 7.62 pistol...I think it was Olympic) and ATF reclassified that caliber as handgun ammo prices shot way up as imports were banned for a time (IIRC it was all steel core at the time and classified as armor piercing). I grabbed some at $139 thinking it was never going to come down again. I remember seeing a case here and there at gun shows marked at over $400! A short time later the lead core stuff started coming in and in fairly short order it was back down to $79/case.

My memory from that era is a bit hazy so if my facts are off, others feel free to correct me.

It may happen, particularly with .223. A recent new story in the SJMercury noted a degree of anxiety with those managing the Lake City facility. The prime question: when Iraq is resolved (however is irrelevant) then what? Lake City has ramped up to max capacity. When that demand from Iraq is lessened they will have max capacity and a significantly lower demand. Prices may plummet.

Which means that once demand slacks, so will price.

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What is going to cause this drop in demand?

Much as I would like to see a decrease in price, I don't think it will happen. Once they see that people will pay a premium for factory ammo, and the profits that go with it, greed will set in.


With the increase on brass,copper & lead, reloading doesn't save what it once did. The good side is you can tailor a pet load for your rifle or pistol and maybe make some obsolete rounds.


This evening I checked the current prices for supplies to load a thousand rounds of 223.

Once fired Federal brass was $121.00 shipped(Chestnut Ridge)

Sierra 69 grain MatchKing HPBT $20.36 box~$203.60 per 1K (Sierra website)

CCI primers $25.00 per 1K (some CCI small rifle primers were higher)

IMR 4064 powder $17.99 lb.

Sub total is $367.59 . Three items don't include shipping .

By contrast Ammoman.com has Lake City 62 grain green tip SS109 for $399.00 1k shipped. I haven't reloaded in years but if IIRC, the savings was a bunch more compared to factory.

I am not sure what the above comparison means. With the components you describe you should be able to make up some very nice handloads that are equivalent to factory premium ammo, not the surplus ammo that ammoman.com sells. Plus, the Ammoman ammo you are referencing is not available for purchase by normal people. The product description says "SALES RESTRICTED TO GOVT., LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OVERSEAS SALES".