Today's modern hollow point ammunition can generally be relied upon to expand admirably and reliably, and to make a hole that is larger than itself.
But expansion not withstanding, and all the jello tests aside, the name of the game is still energy dump......the round that delivers the most kinetic energy to the formerly happy-go-lucky evil doer.
A 55 grain rifle bullet traveling at 3300+ feet per second hits home with 1330 foot pounds of kinetic energy. Few would argue that this would not put a real hurt on you.
A 438 grain 12 gauge shotgun slug at 1560 feet per second whacks you with 2366 foot pounds of kinetic energy. Yes, that would hurt too.
A 575 grain Civil War Minie Ball typically reached 950 feet per second and it hit home with 1152 foot pounds of kinetic energy. This bullet was known for crushing bone and producing significant wound trauma.
A 200 grain Speer Gold Dot from a .45ACP hits home with 518 foot pounds of kinetic energy (which is a telling difference between a rifle and a handgun).
A 124 grain Speer Gold Dot from a 9mm +p hits home with 410 foot pounds of kinetic energy.
A 147 grain Speer Gold Dot from a 9mm standard velocity round hits home with 317 foot pounds of kinetic energy.
A 125 grain Speer Gold Dot from a 38 Special +P hits home with 248 foot pounds of kinetic energy.
A 90 grain Speer Gold Dot from a .380ACP hits home with 196 foot pounds of kinetic energy.
In my book, all else being equal (shot placement, expansion) the more energy dump you have in the body, the more kinetic energy the body experiences, the more effectiveness you are likely to see.
With modern ammo, it's less of a caliber issue these days, and instead, it's an energy issue.
And yes, kinetic energy is what drives penetration.
20 years ago when energy dump was all the rage in the law enforcement community, agencies were picking light and fast ammunition. The most famous of these is the 1986 Miami shootout in which the agents were carrying Winchester 9mm 115gr STs in their Sig P226s. This ammunition had what you might consider good "energy dump". The result was both agents getting killed because their ammunition was designed for energy dump rather than penetration. If they had been using 124gr or 147gr ammunition, maybe the shot Jerry Grove made would have penetrate an extra 2" and taken out the perps heart.
Then we have the .357magnum....the legendary manstopper with incredible stopping power..... The .357magnum has a documented history of putting the badguy down well, but it is also has a history of spectacular failures to put down the badguy. One of the most famous is the Texas highway patrol officer in 1993 who emptied his .357mag revolver with 125gr Hydrashoks into a perp and the perp still managed to wound the officer and run away in to the woods, later dieing of blood loss. The officer's 6 shots hit the perps torso 4 times taking out one lung, blowing through his stomach, and his liver. However, no hits to the aorta or CNS. There was no observable "knock-down power" or energy dump effects. The officer reported that the perp didn't even look phased and a follow up medical exam stated that the perp was not any any kind of drugs or alcohol and that all 4 torso remained in the perps body with good expansion. The effectivenss of the .357mag was well earned in the 1970s due to its ability to more reliably open up early hollow point designs. Slower velocity cartridges could not do this at the time, so the .357mag seemed to be well ahead in those years. This is not the case any more. A modern well engineered .45acp JHP has much more potential at rapid incapacitation than a .357mag does. The measurable advantage the .357mag and.357sig have over the .45acp is that they can penetrate hard barriers better than the .45. Even so, I still generally prefer to use 9mm or .40S&W for better platform characteristics.
For example, here are the lasted Winchester Ranger Bonded loads:
9mm+P 124gr(1180fps)BONDED: (Penetration/Expansion)
Bare Gel: 12.6”/.68”
Through Denim: 18.7”/.54”
Through Heavy Cloth: 18.2”/.56”
Through Wallboard: 11.9”/.64”
Through Plywood: 15.8”/.57”
Through Steel: 22”/.42”
Through Auto Glass: 12.7”/.58”
9mm 147gr(995)BONDED: (Penetration/Expansion)
Bare Gel: 14.7”/.62”
Through Denim: 16.5”/.59”
Through Heavy Cloth: 15.8”/.58”
Through Wallboard: 16.7”/.56”
Through Plywood: 16.5”/.59”
Through Steel: 19”/.42”
Through Auto Glass: 12.6”/.55”
.357sig 125gr(1350fps)BONDED: (Penetration/Expansion)
Bare Gel: 12.5”/.59”
Through Denim: 15.9”/.57”
Through Heavy Cloth: 16.9”/.55”
Through Wallboard: 14.7”/.62”
Through Plywood: 16.0”/.60”
Through Steel: 21.7”/.44”
Through Auto Glass: 12.8”/.62”
.40S&W 180gr(1070fps)BONDED: (Penetration/Expansion)
Bare Gel: 14.8”/.67”
Through Denim: 21.8”/.51”
Through Heavy Cloth: 19”/.59”
Through Wallboard: 16.7”/.61”
Through Plywood: 15.5”/.62”
Through Steel: 14.8”/.55”
Through Auto Glass: 12.4”/.63”
.45acp 230gr(905fps)BONDED: (Penetration/Expansion)
Bare Gel: 14”/.73”
Through Denim: 15.8”/.67”
Through Heavy Cloth: 15.8”/.68”
Through Wallboard: 14.7”/.69”
Through Plywood: 16.5”/.74”
Through Steel: 14.8”/.56”
Through Auto Glass: 12.5”/.66”
Here's a good read if you are not familiar:
http://www.firearmstactical.com/pdf/fbi-hwfe.pdf
Energy dump has been discredited with most major ballistic research institutions like the Firearms Institute and the National Defense Industrial Association which provide research directly to the Department of Defense and the FBI. It has also been discarded by major LE agencies like the FBI, CIA, DHS, DOI, DOD, and many others. There are a few holdouts which include Texas DPS, ICE, and other small agencies which do not have the resources to really examine the problems associated with light and fast rounds that look good on paper, and when shooting at cars in a junkyard. A lot of modern lighter loads can still meet the penetration minimum of 12" in ballistic gel, so these agencies are less likely to suffer a incident gone bad due to poor ammunition performance. However, the overall edge goes to the larger caliber.