What exactly is a SHTF scenario?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joe Demko said:
Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

I'm glad somebody finally noted this. I love "What gun for SHTF?" threads as much as the next guy, but really, whatever ya got (and can shoot) will do just fine.

More importantly, how much food and water do you have? Extra warm clothes/boots? First aid training? Firewood? Batteries? Tools? Chainsaw? Shovels?

In 1999, due to poor planning, I spent an unplanned night out without gear in the northern Sierra. More than "which gun" or "which $300+ knife", what I really wished I had was a sleeping bag and some more food. The best thing in my daypack wasn't a firearm, but the extra jacket and Bic lighter. I didn't need to build a log cabin and shoot bears, I just needed to get through the night so I could walk the 25 miles to the road the next day.

Macho fantasies aside, if you're reading this, you've got 1+ guns :rolleyes:, and that will cover it. If you really don't have anything yet, get any one or more of the following, take a class, and you'll be more than fine: SKS/Saiga/AK/AR/870/Glock/Hi-Point/1911/.357. End of story.

ETA: OK, JWarren (below) is correct. This is a gun board, so SHTF discussions understandably end up being pretty gun-oriented.
 
Last edited:
Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.


Well, there isn't a "SHTF" thread on THR that it ISN'T brought up that guns are NOT the priority during 99% of SHTF scenerios-- so, I think we all get it by now.

Perhaps, just perhaps, many people asking the "What gun for X?" questions have already spent a great deal of time on other preperations. Maybe, but who knows.

The point being that I don't mind the SHTF gun questions. I figure that more often than not, they produce a lot of thought and information OUTSIDE the realm of guns in a SHTF and serve to educate many.

I've already been through more SHTF than most of us will ever see, so I think I've proven that I know that there's more to SHTF than guns. I figure I've earned the right to discuss whatever aspect comes up.


-- John
 
wow... snarkey.


No, the point being that most of us DO get it. And in my case (as well as a lot of THR members), we've seen it.


-- John
 
Joe Demko said:
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

Such a thread would get locked here if it's not gun related. With almost 5,000 posts, you should know that. In fact, I vaguely recall at least one such thread being locked relatively quickly.

I personally prefer the SHTF discussion leaning toward the side of gun issues. That's why I'm here. I'll go to California-specific sites to focus on other survival issues.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by Joe Demko
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

Sounds like a self confession. However I doubt most people here envision our survival haveing anything to do with your fantisies.

It's obviouse that SHTF means self reliance and to what degree depends on the size of the event. To keep it gun related is to recognize the threats that a gun might be used in.

jj
 
And which onerous parts of the Patriot Act were actually repealed?

Well actualy not too many, but some of the authority has been reduced.

In fact just this month it finaly became legal to talk about the FBI abusing you or asking for, siezing, or otherwise obtaining records such as ISP records!
Previously it was a crime to mention it even happened if they gave you a "National Security Letter." Like has been done to hundreds of thousands of people. Essentialy when the government gave that letter to say your ISP, or say TheHighRoad or anyplace, it would be illegal for them to even mention it.
No longer!
http://www.aclu.org/safefree/nsaspying/38113prs20081215.html

Of course every single thing online is still recorded, and most phone calls and internet traffic goes through thousands of NarusInsight systems.
However it is illegal to challenge that or bring lawsuit for that as the government has been declared protected under "Soveriegn Immunity" in the Hepting vs AT&T decision. The final appeals in many cases recently failed, the government victorious.
The actions of those involved have been made legal as they were retroactively granted immunity under the FISA Amendment of 2008.

There is secret police, there is widespread illegal to challenge surveillance, and the average person is totaly ignorant.

The ACLU, the EFF, and many others have brought numerous class action lawsuits. They were defeated with "sovereign immunity".

None of the big companies are even legaly allowed to discuss thier involvment, barred from talking or even cooperating with court.
Here is some official responses to the court ordered investigation that are a delight to read. Essentialy they regret to inform you that they cannot talk about any such thing because it would be a violation of law to discuss those things they cannot acknowledge. There is dozens of such replies, but you should enjoy these because of thier location. They may not last long on the official .gov site:
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/ATT wiretapping response_101207.pdf
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/Qwest wiretapping response_101207.pdf
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/Verizon_wiretaping_response_101207.pdf

As I said there is numerous suits about this and related wiretapping issues (they are not all the same, but they are excused under the same laws.) They have essentialy made it illegal to investigate, and anyone who discloses details about what is being done is violating federal law.
If you want to just get started in sorta understanding the extent, start here:
http://www.eff.org/nsa/hepting



There is literaly cases all over the nation which have been dropped because it is illegal to review them, and everyone is immune to subpoenas if the government says so.
I could cite literaly hundreds of pages of information, but I don't want to take things too off topic.

All I will say is many of the massive purchases of huge, and I mean immense data storage centers across the nation by government, combined with the NarusInsight installed in the backbones of most communications systems means the majority of electronic data is monitored. It is of course too much for humans to monitor, so only things they take additional interest in are reviewed after they have already been recorded automaticly.
It is not just phone records, it is the actual data transfered itself in real time that is recorded and electronicly reviewed through NarusInsight, and stored in data warehouses across the nation.

The Gestapo could never in thier wildest dreams imagined the extent of what is possible and being done today.
 
Last edited:
The Los Angeles riots of 1992, also known as the Rodney King uprising or the Rodney King riots, were sparked on April 29, 1992 when a jury acquitted four police officers accused in the videotaped beating of black motorist Rodney King following a high-speed pursuit. Thousands of people in the Los Angeles area rioted over the six days following the verdict. Widespread looting, assault, arson, and murder occurred, and property damages totaled one billion dollars. Many of the crimes were racially motivated or perpetrated. In all, 53 people died during the riots.[1]

At approximately 6:45 p.m., Reginald Denny, a white truck driver who stopped at a traffic light at the intersection of Florence and South Normandie Avenues, was dragged from his vehicle and severely beaten by a mob of local residents as news helicopters hovered above, recording every blow, including a concrete fragment connecting with Denny's temple and a cinder block thrown at his head as he lay unconscious in the street. The police never appeared, having been ordered to withdraw for their own safety, although several assailants (the so-called L.A. Four) were later arrested and one, Damian Williams, was sent to prison. Instead, Denny was rescued, not by police officers, but by an unarmed, African-American civilian named Bobby Green Jr who, seeing the assault live on television, rushed to the scene and drove Denny to the hospital using the victim's own truck, which carried 27 tons of sand. Denny recovered after brain surgery. Although several other motorists were brutally beaten by the same mob, due to the live coverage, Denny remains the best-known victim of the riots.

Of course Wiki isn't the best source in the world, but I don't think they're too far off in this matter.
 
Last edited:
Criminals aside, aren't the people you decide to draw down on American citizens? Just helpless civilians who could use medical attention or something to eat?


I don't understand the "criminals aside" qualifier in this statement.


The Three attempts at theft of my generator and fuel during Katrina were all done by "American citizens" who were in need of something that I had.

I felt that I had more need for it, and it wasn't thier position to debate that point with me. I still have my generator.


The point being that anytime you have a situation like Katrina, there will ALWAYS be people in need. Newsflash: YOU are in need, too! You NEED the things that you have, and if they were not essential, people wouldn't be coming to you in order to obtain them.

As for the "criminals aside" comment:

Couldn't it be argued that the person robbing your home feels that he NEEDS the things that he steals, or needs funds from sellilng those things?

Isn't that the exact thing we are talking about with looters stealing property from individuals, too?

I'll help a person all that I am able to, and I HAVE done that. During Katrina, I gave out food, fuel, and money to those that needed it. But I NEVER gave out to the point that my OWN family suffered for it.

However, my choice to help those that I was able to was based upon two very real things:

1.) I was able to.
2.) I realized that there was an end in sight, and we would get through it.

The looter TAKES. But he takes more than just property. He ALSO takes the decision and consideration out of your hands. He is not concerned if his theft of your property harms you, or puts you in an unlivable situation.


And that person is a needy American citizen.


Need does not make one worthy.
Need does not make one noble.
Need does not make one a greater priority than my family.



-- John
 
Last edited:
"Your lack of prior planning does not constitute my emergency."

I've seen that posted a lot in the Army at soldier service points. I think it sums up the problem - people acting in panic to secure basic "needs," having done nothing in advance to prepare.

We've had a tornado, a crippling ice storm, the basement flooded twice, and I was out of work for months one time since moving to our current home. Not to mention deployment - so my wife had plenty to do actually moving while I was gone. Probably went smoother that way. :rolleyes:

At no time in the environmental crises did we panic and break into someone's home, or loot the grocery store. It might have helped the store, all the refrigerated goods spoiled. It took a week to rebuild the electric substation. I never saw a gun the entire time.

Where you live and the community spirit have a lot to do with the degree SHTF affects the people around you. If you have real fears about your community, somebody needs to address the underlying cause and address it.

That means moving to a small town for many.
 
Regig said:
Stalingrad. S H T F

Hey! Ask Vasili Zaitsev which he'd rather have: a Mosin and a handful of ammo, or a pallet of rations and warm clothes?

He'd probably say "the Mosin, of course. I'll GO GET what I need! German Rations taste better, & their boots last longer..."
 
SHTF scenario for me is any disaster that brings about martial law, suspending the Constitution, confiscation, or any scumbag dictatorial tyrant wishing to take over the country.

For any of those scenarios, there is no such thing as too many guns and too much ammo, nor too little practice.

You also need medical supplies, groceries enough to take you to the end of the next growing season, seed, farming implements, canning and tanning supplies, possibly a bolt of denim fabric and sewing supplies, portable shelter, water purification supplies, soap, toilet paper ... and don't forget foul weather gear. This is the short list.

Make sure you have arms splined to the local game or the game where you might bug out to in addition to your defensive/offensive arms and armor.

Woody

How you prepare yourself today is all you'll have to defend yourself tomorrow. B.E. Wood
 
I would define it as follows:

Any time the general threat level to you, your family, your property, etc. is in any way elevated, significantly, above a day-to-day threat level - whether directly, or indirectly.
 
Confidence in the financial system falls so far that the public en masse try to draw their money in cash.
Accounts are frozen; your hole-in-the-wall card is no good, your credit cards are no good.
You cannot buy food, fuel, or anything else.
Mobs loot supermarkets.
Cops stay at home to protect their families.
Electricity supply becomes erratic.
Martial law is declared.
Troops search house-to-house for arms; those who have not surrendered them are shot.
Small bands of rural survivalists are wiped out in days by the military.



Or was that a movie I saw? Of course it could never happen - could it? :D
 
If I had a nickel for every time someone told me a cannibal army was coming to eat me, I would have about 18 cents today.

Despite all the reams of overheated BS the media blows at us every day, we live in a country that is far and away made up of good people who pull together and help out their neighbors when times get tough or disaster strikes. That's the one great lesson you'd probably hear from Salvation Army or Red Cross volunteers... We have much more to be proud of and much less to be afraid of than most people suspect.

"SHTF" is a term I tend to reserve for actual living dead zombies rising to prey upon the living.
 
Katrina, riots, blizzards, quakes, nuclear war, economic disaster - all can lead to societal collapse.

Two of those could lead to "societal collapse", but quite frankly life
would go on.

Three of those above are actually quite local in nature and are really
non-events for the rest of this country. It will suck for you if you live
there, but other than the price of gasoline and food rising it doesn't affect
anyone more than 3 states away.

I see people do a lot of stupid stuff when they perceive that a "disaster"
has hit. Why is it that someone in the upper midwest suddenly thinks they
need an extra 100 gals of gas when X happens just on one of the coasts
or the gulf coast or whatever? Why it when there was an earthquake in
Hawaii that people rushed the last functioning gas station? Where were
they going to go? They're on a freakin' ISLAND.

90% of this is poor perception that leads to panic about their daily chocolate
and TV infusions being curtailed in some way.
 
Almost all SHTF is very localized. Even during the Great Depression, life went on for most people. My own family, who were immigrant coal miners, saw no real changes in their day-to-day lives from it.
Realistically, while things are going all to smash for you, people a couple hours away have ice in their drinks and are watching your troubles on TV.
 
To the OP, forget about Katrina already? Do some research, LEO's were nowhere to be found when the looting started.

Whachoo talkin' 'bout Willis? Did you miss the videos of the NOPD officers looting too? :banghead:
 
Realistically, while things are going all to smash for you, people a couple hours away have ice in their drinks and are watching your troubles on TV.

When I was in Iraq there were three types of people: those with indoor
plumbing, those with portajohns, and those who had neither. The difference
could be as far away as the other side of a compound wall or hesco barrier.

Without going to war, I think most Americans could benefit from spending a
week in a farming village in Mexico or Haiti and seeing that life doesn't actually
come to an end when there's no TP or the sound of flushing down 6 gals of
pee-tainted water that's probably cleaner than what comes out of the village
well.

Don't get me wrong --I don't want to live like that, but when I see people
doing spread sheets for water and fuel consumption to maintain modern
suburban life with air-conditioning, satellite internet, and lawn sprinkling,
it shows me they have a complete lack of long-term perspective.
 
Speaking of TSHTF there is a real good paper on the web I read last year.
It details the impact of the New Madrid fault getting active. Destruction of the fragile road infrastructure in the area would demand massive airdrops of medicine and food.

Seems many bridges over the mississippi river will be taken out along with all the pipelines feeding the north east u.s. When I saw the attached pipeline map I was amazed at the number and size of them that feed the north east. The study said many areas would not be accessable for up to or more than a month. So I think an event like this that impacts 4 or 5 states directly and the rest indirectly would count.

I'm sorry I can't remember the name of the study but it was done by a thnk tank like the Rand corp or somesuch. What really got me was the impact it would have on the CONUS in a trickle down fashion. Everything from oil/energy to food production/delivery takes a hit. Many places in the direct area were to be isolated so long that law enforcement would be local neighbors banded together.

I will try and find it again and post a link here. It even went into the impact in summer vs winter. As far as firearms needed I guess if it shoots it beats a pointy stick.
 
As far as firearms needed I guess if it shoots it beats a pointy stick.

Sure, and I'll have some EBR nearby in SHTF, but my chainsaw will be far more
useful for removing downed trees and/or normal re-stocking of firewood for
my woodstove. My water barrels will be more useful than my 75 rd drums.

It's the panicking people who have $3k of "assault gear" and $20 of ramen
noodles as well as the clueless average Joe who has neither (and both are
bored from the lack of HDTV American Idol coverage) who suddenly think
society owed them a uninterrupted 1st world safety net who tend to over-
react when there's a bump on the long freeway of life.

There's often way too much over emphasis on preparing for the frontal assault
on the family compound from the MZB hordes rather than "what keeps my
drinking water clean". That's what gets these kind of threads closed.

People can get by on a couple cups of rice while they put their lives back in
order. However, Americans have gotten too used to the drive-thru of instant
gratification.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top