When are ammo prices and supply expected to get more normal

OilyPablo said:

.45ACP is through the roof. That doesn't make any sense at all even compared to the total hysteria the last 25 days or so. That's when you really know it's a market gone amuck.

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My range's pistol cases are wiped slick of 1911s, glocks, etc.

I do think they have one or two left in .45GAP. Guess the panic's not bad enough yet.

I was at my LGS on Thursday to see the gunsmith. The pistol cases were full and they even had some of those "evil looking black rifles" there. Te ammo shelves were basicly empty except for .45ACP! Lots of that in stock. They have a 24 position indoor range and it was filled with people waiting. We have a family membership there so the wife went to make reservations for this weekend,,,,,,all booked already! No ammo on the shelves but people are there shooting anyway. Me personally, I roll my own and have got a few thousand rounds for the range ready to go.

After the 2008 election -- when there wasn't even specific firearms legislation proposed, nor was there any specific media coverage of anything proposed -- it took a year for ammunition supply chains to catch up and for prices to (somewhat) come back to pre-panic levels.

As this time around we have the 'perfect storm' of Mr Obama's re-election and the waves of proposed legislation, regardless of how the actual votes on that legislation I believe it will, again, be a year before things get back to 'normal'.

The high prices and shortages are being fueled by rampant buying, but the public can't afford to keep buying at the rate they're currently doing forever.

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Theoretically true...but that hasn't seemed to happen with products like gasoline. Also I think it is a factor of "what is available". If hi cap mags are banned, and no one wants to give up theirs because they want them for their own rifles and pistols, then the only way to induce them to do so is to offer them a lot of money for what they have.

I wish I still had a .40; that stuff is everywhere.

For me... I am just sitting on the sidelines watching this spectacle. After 2008, I started making small investments in ammo. For instance, everytime I visited Walmart, Dicks, Sports Authority, LGS, I made it a habit to pick up a box of ammo. Every time I would go to the range, I would replace what I shot on the away home. As far as the AR issue, when everything died down last time, I picked up two years ago a S&W MP15 on Davidson's Gun website. $800 with a rebate!! So... my advice is to wait this out, prices will return to somewhat normal and begin to slowly add to your collection. I don't get caught up in these frenzy's. I even remember during the AWB, that magazines were not that hard to find and were not that relatively expensive. All IMHO.

Maybe buying will slow down when a bunch of folks need to make their second credit card payment in February and realize taxes are right around the corner too. It doesn't seem like buying on this scale can continue for too long. Back in 2009 I thought there was a really big federal order, and that greatly contributed to both the severity and duration of the issue.

I was still fuming over the last ammo shortage. Now we have an other one. I was taking a second defensive shooting class. Suddenly little or no ammo. Stand corrected some was available at a very high price. I had said to myself never again.
When supply and prices returned to normal. Or when there was a sale. I would buy two to four extra boxes for storage. Slowly my reserves built up. I don't care to say what or where it is. But it's what I could afford to buy at that time.
Just this month I noticed Duh slap on forehead duh. Ammo supply dried up again. I stopped shooting all self defense ammo. Ie .223: 45: .40. 9mm. Went back to.22 only for now.

Last year I bought a .22 adapter for the ar. And I have an .22 target pistol. Surprising I enjoy shooting .22 alot. Just two month ago one of the online stores. Had a sale $4.00 off a big box. 375 count. So I bought 6 boxed. So I'm all set. Well for awhile any way.


I hope that enough people have learned there lesson. About our 2nd amend.

This will never come up again.

The buying frenzy will go for about three to four months. As long as there is no legislation or another mass shooting of some sort. The dealers having gotten use to the high prices will hold on for another month or two trying to get the most out of it before they have to start to ease the prices. Some will simply sit on their wears till the next big run up or in hopes of it as they have too much into the items to sell at a deep discount. Add another three to four months till the manufacturing can catch up and get product out to the distributers and then on to the retailers shelf/website. So we are looking at close to 1 year at a minumum.

Now that takes into account nothing being done to change the current laws or any other events that would affect the mindset of the gun/ammo buying populace. Each attempt at a ban or event will reset that clock and make stronger the pressure on supplies. It was only recently that I would have said we had just about recovered from the 08 rush. Now we are starting all over. The 08 one took all most four years to return to a normal (that may have not been the same as prior but it was a new normal). This one is worse than then the 08 on as there is the danger of a pending ban. So it’s going to take longer to correct itself.

Or then I could be full of **** and not know anything.

WB

We have seen normal. I don't foresee going back to that.
I feel like we are entering into a period of civil strife and
rebellion.

I'd say prices are looking pretty good right now - based on what I shoot (even though i reload anyway).

http://www.freedommunitions.com/40-S-W-180-gr-RNFP-B-p/b40r180r-c1000.htm

It will happen when people start buying one box of centerfire ammo rather than ten boxes. In other words, when people start buying what they need and consume whether that be one or ten.

Does anyone think that our DHS ordering over 1.2 Billion rounds of various calibres has anything to do with the current supply/demand issue? I also waited an hour to get into my local gunshow last week and I know people are buying like crazy too...but again, does anyone think that ammo companies like Federal who have a contract with the DHS for 450million .40sw or Remington who has a contract for 200million .223 rounds will effect how quickly some of these manufacturers can start re upping the supply?

Think about it from the manufacturers point of view. they are worried if they add shifts and buy raw material to increase production will they be sitting with warehouses full of ammo when the panic buying stops. I gotta believe also that those new folks who are buying to invest or stock pile may dump it when things calm down and they start adding up the credit cost for the minimum payment.

There is no normal price, only economic drivers of price.

When the panic buying stops.

I figure no sooner than 6 months.

Which really sucks for those of us who have never had enough money to really stockpile. I have a 1k reserve of .223 and 500rds reserve 9mm. I'm shooting lots of .22LR nowadays.

I shoot a lot of 22 rimfire simply because I can't afford (maybe more like "want to afford") to shoot centerfire ammunition at the same pace. But even 22 ammunition is in short supply at many retailers these days. I have felt this way for many years and not simply during the last run on ammunition or the current one. But I do keep a very viable cache of all calibers that I shoot. I just can't blow away 500 rounds of centerfire ammunition and not feel it.

I just can't blow away 500 rounds of centerfire ammunition and not feel it.

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Oh I can't either. The only time I shoot large quantities of centerfire is in a class or during a match (and most of the matches I go to are 100 rd or less deals)

Perhaps when the makers and dealers get a clear message from their customers, saying the following:

We Are Not Going To Put Up With This Foolishness.

Alan how is it their fault that prices are crazy?

Wildbillz: Or then I could be full of **** and not know anything.

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Not knowing isn't a failing. It just means information isn't available. In a situation like this current business with the talk of a ban, it forces speculation on past similar experiences, current realities like the make-up of Congress and manufacturing capabilities of accessory and ammo suppliers in our nation, and discussion on the powers that the President has and doesn't have thru the use of things like executive orders. Until the dice are rolled and the President issues his executive order, we won't know what the provisions are. Until someone presents a bill before Congress, we won't know what it talks about. I'm hearing some hopeful noises right now from the media that essentially nothing is going to come of all this...but I'm not yet convinced that we aren't going to see some moves toward limitations of one type or another. They are pulling out all the stops. Might not have enough juice to get it done, but I'm not going to start celebrating til the bills are stopped, or the voting is done.

I'm seeing alot of new buyer remorse around here. First it was a ban is coming, tons of folks cleared the shelves and the ones that missed that have been paying triple previous FMV prices then....... last week one of the Big LGS's got new stuff in and.... prices were still pre panic prices.... SMH.... some folks will never learn.... I don't really expect the current maddness to last more than a couple more weeks.... the insanity is already starting to subside around here....

In December I bought four boxes of Federal American Eagle .357 Magnum ammo for about $20.50 per box. I should have bought a case.

When are ammo prices and supply expected to get back to a steady state equilibrium?

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My Wally World had .357 in stock yesterday for apx. $23/box. They also had .380, .40 and .45. The prices on all of those were apx. $2 higher than average (or more likely were always that price but nobody bought them) but nothing too crazy.

9mm, .223 and 12ga of all things were completely sold out. I wanted to going shotgunning today, but would up playing with a UMP 45 and a .40 cal Mp5 instead since I had the ammo. Not a bad day at all.

alan said:

Perhaps when the makers and dealers get a clear message from their customers, saying the following:

We Are Not Going To Put Up With This Foolishness.

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The clear message right now, from the customer, is "I'm panicking, please charge me double the normal price." I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

Individuals can be smart, the herd can be a fairly dumb thing.

Checked last night on-line, was looking for some bulk pack .22 LRs to plink with. Couldn't find any in stock. Also, no 38 Special, or .32 ACPs. A few were saying no back order and one had stopped ALL phone and internet sales.