Will "the panic" end before 2016?

Status
Not open for further replies.
xwingband:
Over a week ago there were five ARs in .223 and an AK-74 in a West Point MS pawnshop, on Hwy 45. There were there Friday and the next Monday.
Last Saturday at 1300 we had several ARs at the Germantown gun show, plus a nice Yugo SKS (non-bayo) listed for about $350. There was plenty of ammo but few buyers when I walked past.

There seems to be no actual relationship between much more AR-15/M-4 availability and most ammo prices, a though a small gun shop in Hernando MS has a wide ammo selection and days ago had British .303 at $20/box.
 
Another point to consider about the high, panic prices.

Say before the panic, a small retailer sold one case of ammunition a week or four per month. After the panic started he sells out his weekly supply, one case, in minutes.

But, it takes him another month to receive his next order, which is only one case because supplies are short.

Now, if he left the prices at pre-panic levels, his gross profit is twenty-five percent of pre-panic levels. If his business was tight to begin with, he will have trouble making ends meet and will quickly go out of business.

If he raises prices, and folks still buy his inventory, he can stay in business. He makes the same profit as before on less product.

If he finds another source of ammunition (Walmart, etc), maybe he can stay in business.

We, as consumers, do not have to buy at inflated prices. Our choice.

As the supply catches up with demand or demand recedes back to the level of supply, if the retailer does not lower his prices to be competitive, he will lose money as his inventory will not move.

A simplistic example but should make the point that maybe folks should give the small retailer a little slack.
 
shortage

I was in north Fl for the winter and was seeing ammo starting to be available (in the gun shops not the retailers) when I left in mid Feb. I am now in south Fl and nothing is available. I go to Bass Pro and might see four pounds of powder on the shelf. Maybe a few boxes of ammo but not the stuff most people want and zero primers. The only bullets they have are the not so common calibers and zero have come in in the two months I have been here. We leave here in May most likely for Ok I can only hope it will be better.
 
mdauben/fellow shooters:
Yesterday I called the DC office of TN Senator Bob Corker.

When the young staffer confirmed that it was his office, I voiced an opinion against any further gun control laws.
There was no indication that my opinion was even noted.

How do you determine that such a phone call is not wasted?
Call again next week. And the week after. And the week after that. Keep calling. If they continue to ingore you, campaign against them in the next election.

Write paper letters every week. Email their offices every week. Hit the letter generating websites at Ruger, S&W, and Hornaday(?). Hit Popvox and vote your opposition to every piece of federal anti-gun legislation in the Senate and House (which automatically generates an email for each piece of legislation to your Senator or Representative).

Keep the pressure on.
 
Last edited:
I'm not saying they are not at full capacity. I'm saying they are at a capacity that was fine 20 years ago. Today there are many more shooters. They are not making the investment because they can raise prices and make a huge profit. Current demand is not going away and they know it.

This is just innacurate. Businesses do not deeply invest in TEMPORARY market moves, especially moves based in panic buying. The heavy equipment alone will have a steep ROI curve, and they could and likely would be left high & dry with idled machines and laid-off employees drawing UIP once the panic subsides. No smart company is going to put themselves in that situation, so the time it takes to produce for the higher temporary demand simply must increase.

As for the additional guns creating higher ammo demand, can you name anyone shooting today as much as they were before the panic? I'm definately not. I'm saving my shot for something living and tasty these days, with just enough target practice to keep the rust off. My clod-busting days are done until we get a reasonable supply curve back. I'm not alone, so I could make a strong case that actual rounds downrange is FAR lower today than before the panic, even with the increase in guns. Supply will even out eventually. Hoarders will run out of money. It's SHOOTERS that establish long-term customers, and ammo co execs are paid good money to ensure their capacity mirrors SHOOTERS needs, not temporary hoarding.
 
I am shooting as much today as before the panic.


And so are the so-called Hoarders.
 
the shortage will definitely end before 2016. Its a "seasonal" thing, if you follow the last shortages/panic. all fueled by fear due to many different factors.

My prediction is that we'll see some type of relief by the end of 2013 or beginning of 2014. Granted there aren't any more violent shootings and no gun laws get passed.
 
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?

My crystal ball says...

Plenty of ammunition on the WAL MART shelves to celebrate this upcoming Fourth of July with friends and family.

-and-

Plenty of foolish people who paid $100.00 a box for twenty two bulk packs.
 
This is just innacurate. Businesses do not deeply invest in TEMPORARY market moves, especially moves based in panic buying. The heavy equipment alone will have a steep ROI curve, and they could and likely would be left high & dry with idled machines and laid-off employees drawing UIP once the panic subsides. No smart company is going to put themselves in that situation, so the time it takes to produce for the higher temporary demand simply must increase.

Remington just announced a $32mil expansion of their ammunition plant in Lonoke, Arkansas.

The expansion won't be complete for another year, and yet they still feel it to be a good investment.
 
It will most likely end with any luck by the end of the year; maybe shortly after. What I think you'll see is the high prices hang on a little longer, mainly from folks that panic bought at the height of this madness trying to recoup some of their money, as well as some of your LGS guys trying to squeeze as much money out of their stock as possible.
 
444
Member


Join Date: December 26, 2002
Location: Toronto, Ohio
Posts: 7,776
I am shooting as much today as before the panic.


And so are the so-called Hoarders.

You speak for all hoarders? I am an honest 1,000 rd per month shooter, 2/3rds of that rimfire, but an honest 300 center fire round user. I HAVE CUT BACK, as have my shooting buddies. I am not going to drain my own supply, and I am not going to camp at academy. I will cut back for now.
 
Remington just announced a $32mil expansion of their ammunition plant in Lonoke, Arkansas.

The expansion won't be complete for another year, and yet they still feel it to be a good investment.

An expansion of this size must have been in the works long before sandy hook. No way they have this specific a plan this soon. It just doesn't work that way. The plan has to be extremely specific for the board to vote. That didn't happen in 4 months.
 
"You speak for all hoarders? "

Yes, I was hoping you wouldn't bring it up.
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.
 
Ammo seems to be on the SLIGHT upswing here in OR, although still no 9mm to be found anywhere, but I'm seeing lots of magazines for just above regular prices. Some ammo is still plentiful, I can find 7.62x39 no problem but 5.56 is still limited. A lot of places have limits of 100 rounds per caliber, per day. Honestly I think it'll blow over, people can't stay this worked up about something (even if it's important) for this long, we just nationally don't have the attention span for it. But yes, if Hillary makes a run in 2016 all bets are off when it comes to this stuff getting back to normal. Fingers crossed that she decides to go screw up the private sector instead!
 
"You speak for all hoarders? "

Yes, I was hoping you wouldn't bring it up.
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.
Lmao.
 
@Balrog, sign up for notifications from Midway USA and frequently check sites like www.slickdeals.net(use the search feature in the upper right, for ammo). I have bought about 500 9mm(was almost out) 200 .45ACP(still have a few hundred) and 6000(5k SK/Lapua & 1000 Federal Target) .22lr(was getting low on it). All of the prices were very reasonable.

I am lucky that a LGS near me has most of the reloading components I use. Just bought 1000 Magnum Match primers and 8lbs of H1000. I did however have to order the 220gr. SMK from Brownells.

Things are better than they were a couple of months ago, but I still have problems finding 5.56 at a decent price. That is the only ammo I still see at LGS that are ridiculously priced.
 
An expansion of this size must have been in the works long before sandy hook. No way they have this specific a plan this soon. It just doesn't work that way. The plan has to be extremely specific for the board to vote. That didn't happen in 4 months.

No argument. That assessment is completely correct. But it STILL indicates a legitimate belief among ammunition producers that the demand for their product is greater than it was.
 
I don't believe it will end until after the 2014 elections. The panic will worsen if anti-gunners take the house.



Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk 2
 
We hoarders have a secret society complete with a secret handshake and challenge coin. I was elected, by secret ballot as the PIO/Media guy for the society. I can speak for all hoarders but can't reveal the name of the organization but the name does have the word hoarder in it. We enjoy using the word hoarder and have a monthly challenge to see if we can use the word hoarder ourselves as much as internet gun boards use it.

If all hoarders are this funny, I will reject my former arguments and request my secret decoder ring in the hoarder of the month club!
 
Before you do anything rash: just know that the decoder rings are on back order.

We are looking at a six month delivery time and even then they go only to the top tier members. But once you get one, you go to the front of the line at Walmart.
 
I remember when people swore up and down that the panic following the 2008 elections wouldn't end by the 2012 elections. And beyond, if Obama got elected again.

Boy, were they wrong.

I see the same thing happening this time, to people silly enough to proclaim that the panic will last four years.
 
Before you do anything rash: just know that the decoder rings are on back order.

We are looking at a six month delivery time and even then they go only to the top tier members. But once you get one, you go to the front of the line at Walmart.

Good to know. Since .30-30 is now impossible to find, maybe I should sell my 3 thutty thuttys and go for a .444. I see plenty of that, and it is clearly a far superior cartridge. Will that shameless pandering move me up the list?
 
Do you think the panic will end before Obama leaves office, or are we gonna be stuck with gun/ammo/magazine shortages for 3.5 more years?
Right now President Obama is close to becoming a discredited lame duck.

Even youths are now starting to question his integrity and smarts.

I see his ability to do anything severely hampered.

Expect Obamacare to be repealed.
Benghazi will turn out to show Obama was the one to order the stand down.
And Rahm ordered the IRS to audit the Tea Party at Obama's behest.
And Fast&Furious was a guncontrol shtick they cooked up that failed.

Deaf
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top