Run on ammo free market?

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goon said:
It would be scalping if I went to Walmart and bought a brick of Thunderbolts for $22.99 a brick, then got on this forum and offered to sell it to you for $44? Keep that $44 price in mind... because it will come up in my reply again.

If I have the foresight to buy at a low price and sell at a high price, that's just a good business decision.

When I started buying 7.62x51, I was buying Portuguese at $139/1000 rounds. It came in sealed vinyl battlepacks.
When I sold the last sealed 200 round pack of that stuff, I got $98 for it.
Had I not sold at the fair market value, I would have been the one getting taken advantage of. I could have logged on here and told you guys that I'd just sold $100 worth of shiny excellent Portuguese surplus ammo for $30... and you all would have thought I was an idiot. No one would have given me a prize or a cookie for my sacrifice.
FWIW, the guy who bought that ammo from me was very happy with his purchase, especially when we cut the vinyl pack open and found bright, clean ammunition inside.
And I hope he learned his lesson and bought some ammo and was able to ride this panic out.

My brother sold four bulk packs of .22LR to a guy a couple months ago when there was no ammo to be had at all. My brother almost doubled his money on the .22 he sold that guy, but the buyer was ecstatic to get some .22 ammo when he thought there was none available anywhere. He thanked my brother sincerely for the help. He also didn't feel he was being taken advantage of. He felt that my brother did him a favor and he did. The ammo that my brother sold that guy for $25 per 550 round pack was going for $60 online and would cost my brother much more than $25 to replace today. Who's the good guy in that scenario, and who is the bad guy?

In any case, when prices come down, we'll all have choices to make.
Do we build up our own mini-stockpiles of a few months worth of ammo or not? Will you buy a case of .22LR when it's more affordable?

I'm sorry you don't like lines at Walmart.
But people who had a few bricks of .22LR on hand haven't had to stand in line at Walmart to be able to keep some level of shooting proficiency.
Still, you could go in every day at 7 AM and buy your allotment of .22LR, then sell it on the open market for what you paid for it. By doing that, you'd ease some of the pressure on your local .22 market. Maybe if you did that every day for a month you could discourage scalpers and drive the price down.

Or if you'd care to make the drive to the LGS in my area of central PA tomorrow, you could buy a brick of CCI standard velocity for $44 a brick without standing in line. Let me know if you plan to do that. I'll get you the manager's contact info so you can call him and ask him to hold a brick for you. I suspect that it could be sold out soon if you don't do that (in spite of their efforts to keep some in stock).
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Your description of a good business decision is just that. But I think that's apples and oranges with whats going on now. We have the same groups of people that buy up all retail merchandise, creating the shortage, and then double the price in private sales. That's not exactly what I would call an honest price per market value. Thats a lot more liken to a monopoly, making yourself the only one that has a product, and then fixing the price.
Let's not forget that the same people who are buying them are paying the same 24$ per 550 that we all were two years ago.
I hope I'm not coming off as someone just bitter because I was beat to the register. I have all I need for shooting for quite some time. I like many of you just bought when the price was right and have a steady revolving inventory. But I don't quite relate that to buying everything in sight.
 
beatledog7 said:
Artificial demand?

Demand is often defined as a combination of the desire to have a thing and the ability to pay the asking price. Whether that demand is translated into a sale depends on whether the "buyer" feels less pain from surrendering the money than he feels from not having the item. If the money, representing something else he could buy, is worth more to him than the thing, he doesn't buy.

How can that be artificial? It can be influenced by many things--including politics--but it's determined in the end by people on the buying end. As long as they are buying ammo, which is for almost everyone a non-essentail, they have no basis for complaining that prices are too high. By definition, it is not--if it were, the ammo would remain unsold.

If people stop buying the prices eventually come down.

Artificial demand would consist only of a thing which people are coerced to buy even though they do not want the thing at any price. There are, thus far, few real examples of that.
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The reason I say artificial is because the price at the retailer in most cases hasn't changed. Mainly using Walmart and the local BassPro shop as example, the retail price on 22lr brick is still the same ranging 20 to 24$ per 550.Even though the shelf is empty the price tag is still there. The increase in price is from the people who wait for the truck to buy up all the retail stuff and then turn to double there money on it in private sales.
 
Goon said...I'm sorry you don't like lines at Walmart.
But people who had a few bricks of .22LR on hand haven't had to stand in line at Walmart to be able to keep some level of shooting proficiency.
Still, you could go in every day at 7 AM and buy your allotment of .22LR, then sell it on the open market for what you paid for it. By doing that, you'd ease some of the pressure on your local .22 market. Maybe if you did that every day for a month you could discourage scalpers and drive the price down.
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Some of your statements are just goofy. I will not even comment.

I haven't stood in any lines like Queen has. I have gobs of 22LR ammo including your $44 CCI SV. I could sell thousands of rounds and never even feel it in terms of my shooting needs. I prepared. I prepare for bad times routinely. My standard Walmart visit prior to the current ammunition shortage was to pick up about 500 to 1000 rounds of 22LR. I seldom bought bulk packs. Don't like them. I did this several times a week, every week, every month... it builds up.

I haven't sold one round. I would feel bad selling for "market" price as I feel the big box store pricing IS the market price and everything else is gouging and taking advantage including some of the gunshops in my area selling things like a box of Remington golden bullets (50-ct) for $10. I have no ammunition for sale. I am not standing in any lines. But I do pay attention to the market.

When Walmart has 22 LR again, I will again buy 500 to 1000 rounds every visit and I'll probably end up with about 100,000 rounds if I keep this up. That's only 20 cases. I might slack off then, but probably not. 20 cases just doesn't feel like a lot of 22LR ammunition to me any more.
 
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I don't have a problem with "artificial" either. This whole shortage was driven by panic. Same thing happened with toilet paper in Argentina. On a consumable product, if the demand exceeds the consumation rate, it's artificial from my point of view.

But it depends on how you define consumation. As an end user, I define shooting the ammunition as consumation. But from a retailer point of view, consumation is the sale of an item and by that definition, demand continues to exceed consumation.
 
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If you are sitting on 22lr Ammo you better sell it now while the craze is about to plummet. Same idiots that are stockpiling 22lr ammo are the same fools that lost their ass on Beanie Babies. Why would anyone need 20,000 rounds of 22lr? Or 10,000 rounds of 5.56. If the world gets to the point you actually need that ammo were really screwed. Sooner or later these hoarders are going to get stuck with the ammo and it will be sold really cheap. Brass 9mm Blazer is back down to $14.99 a box at my lgs 22 lr is at $34.99 for 525 brick. Take the money and run while you have a chance.
 
JRWhit said:
The reason I say artificial is because the price at the retailer in most cases hasn't changed. Mainly using Walmart and the local BassPro shop as example, the retail price on 22lr brick is still the same ranging 20 to 24$ per 550.Even though the shelf is empty the price tag is still there. The increase in price is from the people who wait for the truck to buy up all the retail stuff and then turn to double there money on it in private sales.
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Prices for ammo in my area has gone up at a minimum of 20% across the board. Some more but there is no ammo selling at the same price it was in November. We are paying 30 cents a round for 9mm, 50 cents a round for WWB 45acp, $2 a round for cheap .303 , $1 a round for 44 mag and 40 cents a round for 40 cal ammo.

Why will prices continue to climb

1. Manufacures hav to pay increased costs due to new equipment and increased operating costs.

2. Falling physical inventories of lead and copper on hand.

3. Problems with foreign sources of copper.

4.Germany and France coming out of recession along with increased demand from China.

5. Continued increased demand due to politics and stated goals to make Gun Control central issues in the 2014 and 2016 Elecions.

6. Increased demand from new shooters.
 
Your description of a good business decision is just that. But I think that's apples and oranges with whats going on now. We have the same groups of people that buy up all retail merchandise, creating the shortage, and then double the price in private sales. That's not exactly what I would call an honest price per market value. Thats a lot more liken to a monopoly, making yourself the only one that has a product, and then fixing the price.
Let's not forget that the same people who are buying them are paying the same 24$ per 550 that we all were two years ago.
I hope I'm not coming off as someone just bitter because I was beat to the register. I have all I need for shooting for quite some time. I like many of you just bought when the price was right and have a steady revolving inventory. But I don't quite relate that to buying everything in sight.
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Agreed.
But it was implied that should I sell one of my few remaining bricks of practice ammo that I paid about $18 for $50 that I paid a year or so ago, that would be scalping.
I'm not one of those guys running out to take advantage of the situation. I've got about 1500 rounds of .22 ammo in my practice can now, and none of it is for sale. It's earmarked to rebuilt my deteriorated marksmanship skills. And trust me... a .50 caliber can can hold at least 3,500 rounds of .22LR, so it looks pathetically empty with only three or so bricks in it.

But if I did sell it and I could get $150 for something I originally bought for $54... well is it my fault that others didn't also think ahead and pick up a brick of .22 every other paycheck like I did (when I was working part-time last year)?

Having said that, scalpers don't really have a "monopoly" either. You, I, or anyone else could get up at the crack of dawn and go to Walmart to buy ammo at O-dark-thirty and also get a brick of ammo for $23. No offense intended to anyone, but I think that's just the truth.

22rimfire said:
Some of your statements are just goofy. I will not even comment.
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I hold the same opinion of your point of view, but it seems that your desire to just agree to disagree is the best course of action. I respect that and will follow your example.
 
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Russ Jackson said:
If you are sitting on 22lr Ammo you better sell it now while the craze is about to plummet. Same idiots that are stockpiling 22lr ammo are the same fools that lost their ass on Beanie Babies. Why would anyone need 20,000 rounds of 22lr? Or 10,000 rounds of 5.56. If the world gets to the point you actually need that ammo were really screwed. Sooner or later these hoarders are going to get stuck with the ammo and it will be sold really cheap. Brass 9mm Blazer is back down to $14.99 a box at my lgs 22 lr is at $34.99 for 525 brick. Take the money and run while you have a chance.
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This assumes that you paid more than regular pricing. Nobody is "screwed" except people who are buying to gouge other consumers and have no need for the ammunition for themselves.

Goon said...But it was implied that should I sell one of my few remaining bricks of practice ammo that I paid about $18 for $50 that I paid a year or so ago, that would be scalping.
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If you are selling at a price above normal market pricing, then it is scalping or gouging. You can paint it anyway you want to. You need to take into account sales tax paid as well. I really don't condemn individuals for doing this. It just rubs me the wrong way. I personally think this $50 or more per brick/bulk pack is not the money making panacea that many thought it might be. It rubs people the wrong way and in business, real business, you try not to rub your customers the wrong way. Like the gunshop $10 golden bullet price I mentioned above, I refuse to buy ANYTHING from them in the future unless they reduce their prices one heck of a lot on... fireams, ammunition, clothing, scopes... you name it.
 
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22-rimfire said:
This assumes that you paid more than regular pricing. Nobody is "screwed" except people who are buying to gouge other consumers and have no need for the ammunition for themselves.
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Nobody has a need for 20,000 rounds. The average guy wont shoot that in 20 years and that's only 40 bricks or about $600 at $15 a brick. Anybody who shoots 22lr all the time should have had 8 to 12 bricks at all times. Or about 6000 rounds at a cost of $180. Less than the price of a basic 22 rifle. As long as the fools are willing to pay $50 a brick the scalpers will be waiting at Wall Mart.
 
Russ Jackson said:
If you are sitting on 22lr Ammo you better sell it now while the craze is about to plummet. Same idiots that are stockpiling 22lr ammo are the same fools that lost their ass on Beanie Babies. Why would anyone need 20,000 rounds of 22lr? Or 10,000 rounds of 5.56. If the world gets to the point you actually need that ammo were really screwed. Sooner or later these hoarders are going to get stuck with the ammo and it will be sold really cheap. Brass 9mm Blazer is back down to $14.99 a box at my lgs 22 lr is at $34.99 for 525 brick. Take the money and run while you have a chance.
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That assumes that you bought that ammo with the intention of reselling it. If you just bought 10K of .22LR to NEVER have to worry about ammo market fluctuations, why sell it? Or maybe you're a target shooter and you just use a lot of it. Maybe you've just got a lot of trigger-happy grandkids who prefer CCI Blazers to Grandma's rhubarb pie (I was such a grandkid). Really though, it doesn't matter. If you just want 20K rounds of .22 ammo in your basement, that's your right.

I do agree though. I think availability is returning and that prices will start to become more reasonable. But I'm not looking to sell any of mine. I'll probably add a case when I can just so when the next ammo panic hits, I'll still never have to worry about feeding my CZ-452. Really, a case of .22LR isn't that much. You can fit 7,000 rounds in standard 50 round boxes in two .50 cal cans, and much more than that if you empty bulk packs directly into the can. (I really kick myself for not getting more Federal Automatch when I had the chance because my CZ loves that stuff!)

Personally, I do agree with .22 rimfire on that idea. Everyone should have a nice lil' stockpile of ammo, not only for .22, but for any caliber you shoot much of and particularly for anything that might see "serious" use.
If you do that, you won't ever have to beat the ammo scalpers to the counter and you won't be without if there's ever a true crisis.
 
This is not an issue with the free-market.

Why can't supply meet demand? Regulations on ammo production. If commercially producing ammo were hassle-free, supply would have increased tenfold to meet demand across the country. Instead, it is legally burdensome to produce ammo commercially. If there is such a thing as 'artificial demand,' federal departments are causing it by purchasing ammo with your tax dollars.

Don't blame the scalper. Don't blame the gun shop. Blame federal/state/local regulations for your ammo shortage.

On a side note, someone mentioned the free-market trending toward monopolies. The Ludwig von Mises Institute has many worthwhile articles/resources on why this isn't true.

http://mises.org/
 
Russ Jackson said:
Nobody has a need for 20,000 rounds....
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I didn't know Senator Schumer posted here at THR.....

Who gets to determine how much ammo another person "needs?"

So far, in most states, it's still ok to buy as much ammo as one wants......but those days are numbered. Plan accordingly.
 
Deer season is bout to come... wonder what all those once-a-year hunters are gonna do for ammo.

I reload and have hundreds of SP slugs for .243, .270, 30/30, .308, .30-06, and even .338. But a lot of people who own just a .270 rifle might have some problems even finding one box to shoot.

Deaf
 
David E said:
I didn't know Senator Schumer posted here at THR.....

Who gets to determine how much ammo another person "needs?"

So far, in most states, it's still ok to buy as much ammo as one wants......but those days are numbered. Plan accordingly.
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Please don't get me wrong here. I had no intention of limiting the amount of ammo one owns or uses. That was never my intent. Load up, stockpile, or hoard. I don't care if you sell it for high prices either. I wish I had a bunch to sell right now at $50 a brick. I guess I have 10 bricks. I have been hooking up my shooting friends under the stipulation that they replace what they are using at a later date. If you want a million rounds its your right and feel free to load up your house.
 
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