Guns and cartridges you expect will be extinct in 30 years

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Jason_W

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Or if not completely extinct relegated to hard to find, specialty market status.

Given consumer trends, my prediction is that in 30 years, the only types of guns that will be found in average gun shops will be AR type semi auto rifles, inexpensive, synthetic stocked bolt action rifles, and polymer semi-auto handguns.

Everything else will be something that has to be special ordered at great cost or lucked into on the used market.

I also predict that the above guns will only be chambered in the following.

.308 win
.223 Rem/5.56 NATO
7/62x39mm (maybe)
9mm
.40 s&w
.45 ACP
.22 LR

For shotguns, only 12 gauge will be available and even then, most of the market will cater to competition clays games shooters as the AR platform continues to fill the role that was traditionally filled by pump action shotguns.
 
I don't see 20 gauge going away either. .410 maybe, but even that I'd be surprised to see it die out.
 
.38 special and .357 magnum, among others, may last forever - in thirty (30) years, they will still be around.
I think they'll still be around, but I predict that manufacturers will either stop making new guns in them completely, or will only produce very limited runs to cater to the small niche market that still prefers revolvers over polymer autos.

Finding ammo in .38/357 will be like trying to find .35 Rem ammo now.
 
I doubt tremendously that your 6.5s and 243 for CXP2 hunting are going away. And you think 6.5 Grendel or 300BLK aren't going to be here either.


I think in 30 years we will have 4-5 more popular cartridges than we have today and a similar selection of firearms.
 
I don't see 20 gauge going away either. .410 maybe, but even that I'd be surprised to see it die out.
I can see it dying out. If you don't hunt, there is little reason to choose a 20 gauge over a 12, and hunting is a dying activity in the US as it becomes more expensive, there are fewer places to do it, and people have less leisure time in which to engage in recreation.
 
I can see it dying out. If you don't hunt, there is little reason to choose a 20 gauge over a 12, and hunting is a dying activity in the US as it becomes more expensive, there are fewer places to do it, and people have less leisure time in which to engage in recreation.


20 Ga sabot slugs are only increasing in popularity especially with the Savage slug "rifle". I love my 20. I think people also do a lot more research about recoil Etc nowadays with the internet and will discover there is more to shotgunning for new or young shooters than the 12.
 
20 Ga sabot slugs are only increasing in popularity especially with the Savage slug "rifle". I love my 20. I think people also do a lot more research about recoil Etc nowadays with the internet and will discover there is more to shotgunning for new or young shooters than the 12.
I agree personally. I love the 20 gauge.

That said, the niche a lot of guns and rounds fill is a hunting role. I'm guessing that non-hunters wouldn't flock to 20 ga sabot rounds due to their high cost.

As hunting continues to decline in popularity, the market for guns that are tuned to a hunting role will also decline to the point where major manufacturers will have to stop producing them.
 
Good thing I will more than likely be 6ft under in 30yrs... I wouldnt want to live with those kinda crappy choices.


45GAP is probably the only one that will be extinct..
 
Shotguns in 2045 A.D.

The preferred gauge will remain 12 ga., and I believe 20 will be around for those who prefer a lighter load. Although I can see .410 interest dwindling within 30 years, it will probably be more popular than 16 ga. is now.
 
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20ga is hear to stay, with all the youth hunters starting with them , I think there are more single shot 20ga's out there than AR's and thanks to the 410 hand guns, the 410 has made a good come back , so for shotguns I'd say what we have today will be the same in 30 years ,

as for rifles , a lot have come and gone over the years , but anything that has held on for the past 30+ years is here to stay ,300win.Mag, 30-06 , 270win , 308, 7.62X39, 45-70, 30-30, 243, most 7mm's ,and handguns in , 45acp, 44mag,38spl/357mag, 9mm,

right now there seems to be a big come back of classic wood stocked hunting rifles , even if the factory don't offer it , guys are buying the gun then ordering a nice aftermarket stock for it , I got a Savage Axis in 25/06 last year and it wont be leaving my house again without a nice wood stock on it ,

so I see things like the new wiz-bang cartridges going by the wayside and some goofy shaped things going by by . I would like to see one of the many 6.5's stick around but they never seem to last :(




.
 
I'm biased, but as John Taffin said:
There is an old Indian legend that says when all else is gone, still will remain the coyote. I would expand upon that and say still will remain the coyote and the .45 Colt. No other sixgun cartridge has ever been pronounced dead so many times.

If I was starting over, I'd probably go .308 instead of 30-06, but I suspect I'll be able to find 30-06 on gas station and Walmart shelves for at least the rest of my life (or the next 30 years, YMMV)
 
I wonder where you are getting your "current market trends". Around here revolvers are sold as fast as they are put on the shelves. Not just for SD/HD but for range use and hunting. This means rounds like .38, .357, .44 and .44 mag will be around for at least another 30 years. Revolvers are still the standby of handgun hunters(which is a steadily increasing sport) and the huge appeal of cowboy action shooting means they and lever action carbines will be around for at least another 30 years. Also seems the current trend in shotguns is the "small bores" like 20 and 28 ga. There are now more models of shotguns available in 16 ga. than 20 years ago. With the effectiveness of modern shotshells for the smaller bore guns, other than for turkeys and waterfowl, the 12 ga. is not really needed. My LGS claims they still sell more deer rifles in 30-06 than any other caliber. Regardless of the platform, those rifles will still be in use in 30 years and will be needing ammo.

As for hunting dying out. Are you kidding? The price of Rec land around here has gone thru the roof because folks want their own hunting land. Because of the land and the place to hunt, they are passing the tradition on to their kids. More woman are hunting now as compared to any other time in modern history here in the United States. Many of those are young woman and girls that will continue to hunt for 30 years or more. In most states, there are more deer and wild turkey available to sportsmen now, as any other time since hunting regs have been established. Those numbers are not going to disappear. Neither is the increase in predators like coyotes and wolves. The hunter safety classes I help with are always filled to capacity with kids that are planning on hunting for more than 30 years. Then there is the big increase in Muzzle loader hunters, none of which use firearms chambered in the calibers you claim will be the only ones left in 30 years. Hunting is as popular now as it has ever been and it has become big business. It's not going away anytime soon.
 
I wonder where you are getting your "current market trends". Around here revolvers are sold as fast as they are put on the shelves. Not just for SD/HD but for range use and hunting. This means rounds like .38, .357, .44 and .44 mag will be around for at least another 30 years. Revolvers are still the standby of handgun hunters(which is a steadily increasing sport) and the huge appeal of cowboy action shooting means they and lever action carbines will be around for at least another 30 years. Also seems the current trend in shotguns is the "small bores" like 20 and 28 ga. There are now more models of shotguns available in 16 ga. than 20 years ago. With the effectiveness of modern shotshells for the smaller bore guns, other than for turkeys and waterfowl, the 12 ga. is not really needed. My LGS claims they still sell more deer rifles in 30-06 than any other caliber. Regardless of the platform, those rifles will still be in use in 30 years and will be needing ammo.

As for hunting dying out. Are you kidding? The price of Rec land around here has gone thru the roof because folks want their own hunting land. Because of the land and the place to hunt, they are passing the tradition on to their kids. More woman are hunting now as compared to any other time in modern history here in the United States. Many of those are young woman and girls that will continue to hunt for 30 years or more. In most states, there are more deer and wild turkey available to sportsmen now, as any other time since hunting regs have been established. Those numbers are not going to disappear. Neither is the increase in predators like coyotes and wolves. The hunter safety classes I help with are always filled to capacity with kids that are planning on hunting for more than 30 years. Then there is the big increase in Muzzle loader hunters, none of which use firearms chambered in the calibers you claim will be the only ones left in 30 years. Hunting is as popular now as it has ever been and it has become big business. It's not going away anytime soon.

I hope your right on that.
 
Posted by Jason_W:
Given consumer trends, my prediction is that in 30 years, the only types of guns that will be found in average gun shops will be AR type semi auto rifles, inexpensive, synthetic stocked bolt action rifles, and polymer semi-auto handguns.
How well did your 1985 predictions for 2015 pan out?
 
A few pistol cartridges will be out of production: .45 GAP and maybe .25 ACP and .32 ACP for autoloaders; ammunition for revolvers will not include the
.327 or .44 Special, maybe the S&W .500 and the old .32 calibers.

I think it's a safe bet that we'll not be able to buy the .30-06 and quite a few other rifle cartridges. My lack of knowledge in this are makes it difficult to cite specific calibers.
 
The only thing that I predict being extinct are the things already getting scarce. Contender guns and barrels, oddball calibers like the jdj calibers, and the high cost low interest rounds like 9x23, 38sw, 327 fed, 45AR...
 
I think it is the other way around. With 3-D printing and the ease and automation of manufacture, you will see the making of basic items like firearms so easy that they may very well be able to make high quality firearms from the past at an affordable price.
 
buck460XVR said:
In most states, there are more deer and wild turkey available to sportsmen now, as any other time since hunting regs have been established.

True that. There are over 20 million deer in the United States at the moment and the numbers keep growing. More than when Columbus sailed in 1492.

Hunting will become stronger, and most of those, "to be extinct" cartridges, will still be thriving in 2045.

I'm bookmarking this thread for '45. I'll only be 102 by then! ;)
 
Given consumer trends, my prediction is that in 30 years, the only types of guns that will be found in average gun shops will be AR type semi auto rifles, inexpensive, synthetic stocked bolt action rifles, and polymer semi-auto handguns.

Maybe a phased plasma rifle in the 40-watt range will finally hit the shelves?

Perhaps another prediction is that in 30 years, the average gun shop will for the most part stock accessories and ammo, and will just be doing transfers for most other firearms

Also, I don't see 1911s, SAA revolvers and numerous other wheelguns vanishing in the next 30 years. Not at all.

Think about what was stocked in the "average" gun shop 30 years ago, in 1984. Think about the different (and same) items available today. And in the future? The "next big thing" in 30 years may be very different than today. Or maybe we hit a big retro trend...

By the way, speaking of the average gun shop 30 years ago, that reminds me that the movie Terminator came out 30 years ago (line above).

Terminator: [picking up guns] The 12-gauge auto-loader.
Pawn Shop Clerk: That's Italian. You can go pump or auto.
Terminator: The .45 long slide, with laser sighting.
Pawn Shop Clerk: These are brand new; we just got them in. That's a good gun. Just touch the trigger, the beam comes on and you put the red dot where you want the bullet to go. You can't miss. Anything else?
Terminator: Phased plasma rifle in the 40-watt range.
Pawn Shop Clerk: Hey, just what you see, pal!
Terminator: The Uzi nine millimeter.
Pawn Shop Clerk: You know your weapons, buddy. Any one of these is ideal for home defense. So uh, which will it be?
Terminator: All.
Pawn Shop Clerk: I may close early today. There's a 15-day wait on the hand guns but the rifles you can take right now.
 
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