Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by Legionnaire, Feb 22, 2014.
I'm more concerned about the shortage of gunpowder for reloading as it affects many calibers.
Not likely. Once the market is glutted and people are "hoarded out" there is going to be a lot of .22lr on the market...remember, they are still producing like gangbusters.
This is an artificial demand curve that WILL settle out over time, and when it does, .22lr ammo will be the cheapest we've seen it in a long time. NOBODY is going to pay $50/brick once shelves are full and their closets are full too...so the prices will drop.
No it won't - we now have tons of 223 on the shelves at every gun store and the prices are not coming down to prepanic levels
Costs have gone UP. Remember a little thing called Obamacare? My wife's insurance has risen 40% in the last few years - I suspect the same at the ammo and gun makers. Brass and lead still have a huge world-wide demand - all the imported stuff has made a few billion new middle class folks in China and India and they want cars - and they need batteries.
When we had our shotgun club's fields mined for lead reclamation, the reclaimer had it sold before he started to car battery makers - they were paying the highest price
Get used to a minimum of .05/each, if not closer to .08
And it is no secret how people know when walmart stores are going to have an ammo shipment. Some use the walmart mobile app for their android phones, but it is easier to use the brassbadger app, or go to brassbadger.com. It shows which walmart stores have stock and which don't. It is only as accurate as what is reported by each store, but if .22 shows in stock at 8pm (and it will say something like in stock for the last 1 hour, or something similar), and you know your local walmart puts ammo out at 8am each day, then there will be ammo there the next morning for sale. Same goes if it shows in stock for a week, you know the store is reporting erroneous information due to their inventory being off. I had to go to walmart this morning to grab a few items, checked the brassbadger website before going into the store and saw a shipment of .22 (Remington 225 packs if anyone is curious) was there, so went and got into the short line (4 people, which was 6 people by the time the ammo was put out 5 minutes later) and bought 3 boxes. Will it be resold? NO, I buy it to shoot it out of my .22 firearms, and to have enough ammo for my children and certain family members to shoot/train with.
Same thing with Gander Mountain, sign up for the weekly ammo alert - check through the link provided - and you can see if your local Gander Mountain is getting any .22 in on their ammo shipment. Or use wikiarms or gunbot, and when an alert for .22 comes in stock for Gander Mountain or Cabelas - even if it is a limit of 1 box, both retailers will ship to store for free. I know people who will order it online like that and then go every so many days to pick up their orders. Also with wikiarms you can set up email alerts with a price per round. Have the alerts go to your smart phone and order through there. Some companies (like graf's and sgammo) don't have limits and a case can be purchased when they get it in stock.
Again, not everyone who goes to walmart to buy ammo are resellers.
Keep in mind who raised their prices and who bunkered down to ride out the storm. I picked up a brick last week from Bass Pro for $19. They are on my "good guy" list!
economics is a funky beast
i bought almost all my 22lr at $9-12/brick and sold it all at $70/brick.
If it dropped to $12 again, I would buy a pallet. At $19 I might buy one brick per year or so.
my guess is it never drops below $15 again
i doubt i'll ever see primers at $14/k either
Well, during the panic I saw .223 going for $0.50-$0.75/rd, and this is the exact same line used then..."get used to it, its the new norm"..
I don't know where you are shopping, but where I'm at, Prices for .223 are at or even slightly BELOW what they were 2 years ago, and are dropping. I can find cases of .223 right now for $280. I was paying $290 for the same case of ammo from the same manufacturer 3 years ago.
.22lr is not some magical unicorn. It follows the same rules of supply and demand as everything else.
Where do you think all the .22lr ammo being produced is going? Its not being used, its going Into peoples closets. Once closets are full, people will stop buying. Ammo is still being produced like gangbusters, shelves will be overflowing, so prices will fall. My crystal ball predicts record low prices within the next 18 months, and a slowdown in production as stores are glutted.
There has been more than enough production to satisfy both the natural demand and new shooters entering the market...what we are seeing is an artificial bubble in demand fueled by unfounded speculation, and it has to pop eventually. The only question is when.
Maybe if everybody bought directly from the manufacturer, that question could more easily be answered. But everybody DOESN'T buy directly from the manufacturer. That's not how things are set up. Ammunition and arms, like so many other goods in the country, go through distributers and then to stores, where customers finally go. The stores aren't going to have your answers with the precision you want.
Costs have gone up. Whoopie. When I bought my first .45 ACP, I could get 50 round boxes of .45 ACP for $5. And that wasn't really all that long ago...back in the early 90's. I remember buying milk cartons of .22LR for about $5 in the early 80's. Now people are happy with $23 because that's 4.X cents a round.
Darn skippy gas is a poor example. Gas NEVER matched inflation for decades at a time. In fact, if you look at the price of gas now, adjusted for inflation, we're paying early 80's prices. We just got so used to having gas dirt cheap that we had a cow when it finally started going up like everything else. Sucks...but that's life.
Besides...I refuse to get bent out of shape about how so many people in our society will complain about $3.XX a gallon for gas, when many of those same people will happily pay $1.25 for a 16 ounce bottle of water out of a soda machine, a rate that would have them paying $10 a gallon for water. Two bottles of water from the soda machine would pay for nearly a thousand gallons of water from their own tap.
Cases online have come way down. Look at how cheap 223/556 is at SGammo, etc. You can buy brass cased .223 for $300/1000. My recovery rate of AR brass is not as good as it could be and I do have to put buy a case here and there.
Some LGSs and Wal-Mart are still way expensive on centerfire ammo. Just don't buy ammo there.
22LR Ammo Shortage Update?
It's been over five years since the onset of the 22LR ammo shortage and manufacturers reporting that they are working 24/7 to fill orders.
Well, they've been working 24/7 since and the shortage has become worse if anything. What I have not heard of new capacity being brought on line.
I wouldn't say 5 years, more like since Newtown.
It's out there, just not as available as it used to be. I've been able to purchase at pre panic prices a few times.
Sometimes I get lucky but more often then not no one seems to have any ,unless you buy it from the thieves on Armslist .I've got a few thousand rounds still but it sure does go fast ...
I am seeing more lately than last year, but still a bad shortage. I am seeing Winchester at Walmarts. Using Slickguns alerts, I get 22lr in stock emails 4-5 times a day. Many of it 1 per order. With shipping it is too high.
Yeah the problem with that idea is that just this week, Dicks advertised 325 packs of Federal Automatch, 1 per customer, at $19.99. I never really got low on 22lr, still had a 5 year supply at my shooting rate, but I'm having trouble going past Dicks without stopping to buy one....have bought 3 so far this week. Haven't seen it for so long I can't resist. How hard is it for those who ran out or new shooters who couldn't get any? When will they quit?
Honestly, who cares?
Can you tell me of a time in the entire history of the country when there has been MORE ammunition in the hands of the civilian population, .22LR or not?
I say keep buying at every chance.
Supply is definitely showing up again. It just moves fast!
Went to local Walmart last week to pick up my deer tags. Asked the manager if they expected any 22LR since the shelves were empty. He checked the computer and told me they showed at least 50 boxes of 225 rounds remington HP ($11) was supposed to arrive Friday night and would be available Saturday morning. Stopped by Saturday and none to be found. Lady at the desk said she sold a bunch first thing. She looked up the UPC found they sold 83 boxes. Supposed to be getting another 30 boxes later this week.
BTW -- Joliet Gander Mountain did have stacks of 22LR in stock behind the counter yesterday. A bunch of folks were asking for it, but did not see any takers. 900 rounds, not sure of the brand, in a green plastic ammo can for $119. Also had a bunch of the Swamp People branded CCI 22WMR for $45.
Not 22lr but I did just order some 22mag v-max from Midsouth! Havent seen any of that for sale for a while.
Interesting to read the old message thread from 2009 … CCI reported working 24/7 and putting out 4 million rounds a day even back then.
4 million/day is the same production number CCI gives for 2014, in a recent video tour of manufacturing. So after 5 years of shortages, they haven't increased production.
It's still not possible to get an estimated delivery date for 10-month old back-orders: next week, next month, next year. Who knows? Bizarre.
High demand normally means producers raise their prices. This automatically rations the limited supply to those who value it most (measured by who is willing to pay the most), which automatically satisfies the most need.
Manufacturers can invest the money to increase production and then make more money by gradually increasing the number they sell too.
But here it seems the manufacturers aren't raising prices. Instead, resellers & flippers, who add no value, get the additional money. They don't build production with the money, so scarcity remains.
The whole thing has a very "Soviet" central-planning committee vibe to it. At some point, it was decided "we'll make this much and no more". 4 million/day was good enough for 2009, so it is for 2014.
In the old Soviet Union, grocery store shelves were generally empty because the state planners had five-year plans that set production to be X units, set the price, and that was that. Sounds familiar ...
You're assuming that all the .22LR ammo is being bought up by "resellers & flippers". It's not. The vast majority of .22LR ammo is going into the hands of consumers who want it for themselves (and their close family/friends). For this amount of ammunition to be actually going through "resellers & flippers", the actual market would reflect it to be moving like hotcakes...reselling it at 300% or more inflated cost just as fast as it comes off the shelves. That's not happening, or you wouldn't be seeing it hardly at all on any of the websites doing this, nor would you be seeing piles of boxes at gun shows either.
I can find plenty of .22LR ammo out there at normal prices, if I'm willing to bide my time and keep my eyes open. In fact, that's how I came about with my current stock of 4,000 to 5,000 rounds. If I want to, I can buy match grade .22LR, which has not been affected at all, it seems, and is readily available. If I want to buy retail and don't mind paying more, I can go to any number of local gun stores in the Hampton Roads area where I work, or back home in SC.
And just because CCI apparently hasn't increased their production of .22LR doesn't mean others aren't. Winchester, for example, has increased production by 25% in the last year. Remington is building new production facilities, which are supposed to be starting production soon, if not already. Armscor is building.
Some companies have increased production capacity, others are planning on it, and still others have decided not to. Increasing capacity is risky business, especially in the firearms and ammunition business. Certainly none who have increase capacity did so without significant marketing research over time. Others may yet increase capacity. Time will tell.
I don't see the shortage improving soon.
The California legislature is poised to pass SB43 … this law would require, as of July 1, 2016, that ammunition sales be conducted face-to-face (i.e., not online) by licensed ammunition vendors. Ammunition buyers would need state permits and the purchases would be recorded/tracked.
Whether or not Governor Moonbeam signs it in the next month or not, a whole lot of people in a state with 38 million population are looking to buy lifetime supplies before things get even more complicated and uncertain. Even if it fails to get a signature this time, it will be proposed again and again.
Its good some manufacturers are increasing production but unfortunate I've had such spotty results with Remington, no experience with Winchester. Can't risk a lifetime supply purchase on stuff I've had trouble or no history with.
But...it HAS been improving! I don't understand people who make such comments! I've been keeping an eye on availability over the last 2-plus years and it most certainly is better now than a couple years ago. And this improving trend is clearly reflected in the ongoing postings on this subject over the last two years as well.
Chief, maybe it's improving where you live, but I can assure you that no .22 ammo has been seen on any store shelf in my part of Southwest Florida in at least 18 months, at least by me. And believe me, I've been looking!
Walmart has even removed the price stickers off the shelves where .22 ammo used to be. It's like it was never there. What does that mean?
For the first time in almost 2 years, I seen .22 on the shelf at WM here. The lady working the counter said they just put it out recently, but it don't last long. She was a "new face" employee (at least in that dept). I mentioned to her that for almost 2 years, the reply I would get from the other employees was "haven't seen .22 in ages". She said "I can tell you we get 3 shipments a week, and there was no timeframe in the past they didn't, that she was aware of."
In any event, they were the 225 rd packs, for $11.07
I didn't purchase any, as I stocked up at CMP a few years back, but was nice to finally see some make it to the shelf locally.
Mirrors my experience also - early in the morning (they're supposed to put it out at 7am), old grumpy white guy beats me over the head, claiming they haven't had any 22 in ages. Happen to run across a different employee (young gal who obviously wasn't in the loop) and had 22 ammo on the shelf at 2pm!
If your "new face" hangs around long enough, expect flippers to try to get in her good graces in order to circumvent stocking the 22 ammo.
It's the circle of life (flippers) I guess...
The 22 ammo situation has made a friend of mine so batcrap crazy he got a part time stocking job at walmart just so he could watch the shipments. More comes in than than I had suspected. But, as everywhere else, 75% of it goes out the door to the same group of people each and every time. He's amazed at how quickly they're at the store whenever some arrives, regardless of the time of day it's put out.
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