Yeah, if you go by velocity and bullet weight, the 9mm outclasses the .38. And I can say that Federal 115gr JHPs are a time proven round that, if used exclusively in 9mm pistols, would change that round's reputation overnight. I would especially like to see it used in military pistols and believe that not doing so puts our men needlessly in harm's way.
That said, the configuration of .38 bullets also has to be taken into account. All said, I think the .38 bullets are probably more conducive to reliable expansion than most 9mm bullets. Certainly the high-capacity aspect of the 9mm makes it the preferred way to go. Still, shot by shot, I might prefer a hot .38 round.
One problem with the 9mm was the poor pistols that initially were made for it. The Smith & Wesson 39/59 was an unmitigated disaster. It was only when the military began getting serious about it did we start to see super reliable automatics come into being, the first of which was the Beretta 92. Then, on its heels, the Smith & Wesson 459, 559, and 659. From then on, things just kept getting better. Now, almost anyone can afford an ultra reliable 9mm, one that will feed bullets of any shape and configuration.
The ability to rapid fire these guns and to load 14-20 rounds into a magazine is a remarkable achievement. And 1911 pistols still have not equalled the reliability out of the box, yet they frequently command a much higher price. Why? Who knows?
The .38 revolver is still a very decent way to go. Packing them in a good, solid .357 is even better.
Reliability is just one aspect of what makes
a good military pistol. What one shoots out of it
is another matter. The 9mm ball ammo is
horribly deficient. Most soldiers would prefer
to use their rifles.