Ammo industry: We won't see return to normal until 2023.

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by TTv2, May 25, 2021.

  1. TTv2

    TTv2 Member

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    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/05/24/heres-why-it-could-take-years-for-ammunition-to-become-readily-available-again-n2589901

    Saw this article recently and it's confirmed what I have been thinking the past few weeks. We're almost into June and nothing has changed really, so that means there's still a crazy high demand out there. Now, this could be fear mongering on part of the industry to gin up more demand and it is only from a domestic producer, not a foreign ammo manufacturer, so it may not quite be until 2023 before ammo prices and availability and primers become available, but I firmly believe we will not see any relief for the rest of 2021.

    And you can forget about it just affecting 9mm and .223, it's affecting every caliber because the companies making ammo are focused mostly on 9mm and .223, so all other calibers will be just as affected. Primers too will also be affected since the companies making the ammo need all the primers they can make.

    We're effectively in a consumer depression right now relating to the shooting industry. I mean, for firearms, air guns and muzzleloaders are doing just fine. The US may as well be the UK right now.
     
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  2. sequins

    sequins Member

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    I can't find primers to reload. Im only loading LPP because I bought 10,000 in better times. I'll be buying 100,000 spp when I can find then for 5 cents or less.
     
  3. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    As long as they're selling all the loaded ammo they can make and have months and months of pre-orders for more, all the primers (and other components) they can make will go into loaded ammo. Which means it will take longer for the components supply to rebound after the ammo market settles.
     
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  4. AK Hunter

    AK Hunter Member

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    Ammo is slowly coming back to this area, I can tell because there is new brass at the range to pick up. It's mostly 9mm & .223/5.56 & a little .45auto just started showing up.
    The guy at the local gun shop said that the ammo will start filling the shelves in about 9 months & then if everything stays level the primers will start showing up. But anything could mess it up & he says the Democrats pushing gun control could easily do it, & then you may never see it back to normal.
     
  5. TTv2

    TTv2 Member

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    And you're not alone in that regard, which means the primer shortage will go on for possibly forever unless companies invest in expanding their production capabilities, which after Sandy Hook the ammo industry realized that expansion was largely a gamble that wasn't worth it because panics are short term spikes, not long term ones.

    But 2023? That's ridiculous. Guess I'll be buying air guns and percussion cap making kits for my birthday this year and it's a damn good thing I bought all those used games for Black Friday last year at half price, I'll have plenty of time to play them instead of reloading.
     
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  6. TTv2

    TTv2 Member

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    Well, I don't want to get too political, but so far two Democrats in the senate have held strong on the filibuster, so it would take 60 votes to get anything anti gun thru the senate, but with how many RINO turncoats in the Senate GOP that are retiring next year, a few of them could flip if the lobby money doesn't keep flowing like warm oil in a pipeline. Then there are GOP senators from states that have Democrat govs who if they die, get caught doing illegal stuff, or are entrapped by the pure and totally not corrupt FBI ;) will be replaced with a D.

    So, when I read into all this I figure that the industry thinks the GOP is going to win Congress next year and that'll ease the demand, but then what I could see to keep squeezing us is Biden would ban ammo imports.

    And none of that has anything to do with mass shootings or some other high profile gun tragedy. With the increase in crime thanks to police being restrained and demonized the Anti's are going to be able to form a narrative and show that when NICS checks were at record highs, gun violence also spiked, thus there's your evidence guns are bad.

    Like I said, we're in a depression for another 2 years.

    ETA: and something that is NOT going to help reduce demand and panic buying of guns and ammo is all the people behind the counters of the LGS using fear monger tactics on the newbs who bought their first gun last year and think 9mm at $1 a round is normal to keep selling them ammo at inflated prices to turn more of a profit.

    When I can get .22 LR from CCI for $40 a brick, there's no excuse for that same brick to cost $100 a brick at the LGS who is telling people, "I might never get ammo in again!"

    You know, if the distribution chain is that fragile, than the retailers need to fundamentally change the way they do business and skip the distributors and order straight from the manufacturer. I mean, if I can do it, why can't the retailer?
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2021
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  7. DoubleMag

    DoubleMag Member

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    The folks who MAKE the ammo see it differently. Their 2+ years (-) your gun shop fellow's 9 months still (=) a long time

    I'm glad to be wrong though:)!
     
  8. Waveski

    Waveski Member

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    A year ago my pharmacist predicted that we would be mask free by Nov of '20. He's behind the counter just like the guy at the local gun shop. The underlying fact that both of those well meaning fellows failed to take into account is this:
    The people who are currently in the wheelhouse believe that a state of chaos is advantageous for them , and they will sustain that for as long as possible.
     
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  9. Steve S.

    Steve S. Member

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    Since no one (even the ammo producers) knows when the ammo supply will once again be substantial, it is well advised to manage the supply you have and hope for the best - the guy behind the counter doesn’t know either, no one can predict future events that will effect ammo supply or anything for that matter. Everyone who predicts is guessing, everyone that predicts correctly is just lucky. It is absolutely assured, no one has the market cornered on the future so manage what you have.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2021
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  10. bullpup-addict
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    bullpup-addict Contributing Member

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    I watch the local (Michigan) online firearms auction sites regularly and I have noticed an abundance of small lots (1 to 5 boxes) in almost very site I monitor. Most of the winning bids seem to be in the 300%+ pre shortage prices. There is an uneven mix of foreign / US ammo brands. I wonder where all the ammo is coming from, there seems to be an endless selection at the online auction sites. Is anyone else seeing the same in their areas?
     
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  11. Walkalong

    Walkalong Moderator Staff Member

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    I can wait
     
  12. John_R

    John_R Member

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    I've always timed my range visits for when the least number of people are there (weekdays), and there seem to be fewer than ever. So I can't say whether range shooting is overall up, down, or sideways. The point being, if people are buying all this ammo, I don't see them shooting it much.
     
  13. mmb617

    mmb617 Member

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    From what I've seen in my area ammo is becoming more available, although usually with two box per customer limits. But prices are way above what they were before the panic, with 70-80 cents a round for 9mm being the norm. Primers are also staying on the shelves longer, again with limits and very high prices of $20 per 100 or so.

    So while availability is improving prices are way too high. I don't see that changing any time soon.

    I get the feeling that those waiting for prices to approach what they were in early 2020 are in for a very long wait. Actually I don't think prices will ever again be that low. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  14. kidneyboy

    kidneyboy Member

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    When retail "shortages" happen the distribution system changes. The ammo is now coming from peoples stockpiles.
     
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  15. Hooda Thunkit

    Hooda Thunkit Member

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    This. Absolutely.

    I was at the Tulsa Wanenmacher Show, the big show that happens every 6 months (usually). I saw MUCHO ammo there, and probably 75% of it was old stock.

    This stuff is coming out of peoples cabinets, from estate sales, from secret caches. Enterprising buyers are out searching for, and buying up these stashes.

    I approached a table which was packed with old boxes of ammo. The seller had 2 boxes of 32 S&W, one of which was partial: it had maybe 30 rounds. I waited to get his attention, asked about the 32 S&W.

    He said " Well, I'll take $75 for the partial box, and..." I interrupted him at that point, thanked him for his time, and moved on.
     
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  16. Skeptic13

    Skeptic13 Member

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    Honestly I am really tired of reading articles predicting the end of or the longevity of this ammo shortage. Some reporter interviews one or two people and everyone reacts to it. IMO no one knows for sure. If history is any indication it will end at some point. Unless the socialists manage to put laws into place to ban or severely tax ammo. Until then I'm going to stop paying attention to these articles.
     
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  17. Mars5l

    Mars5l Member

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    Im seeing a markes improvement in my area. Both BPS had ammo sitting out this weekend, wasn't the really popular stuff but they had it. Plus they had their ammo cart behind the counter with bulk boxes of 5.56 and regular boxes of 45 colt. Rural King has a pile of Norma .22LR albeit $9 a box of 50, a bunch of 7.62x51, 7.62x39, target shells and a little stash of .40SW.
     
  18. reddog81

    reddog81 Member

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    Prices have started to drop so that's good. I'm getting regular emails with steel 9mm and it's even under $.50 per round so at least we're on the right track.

    If a person wants to go shooting it's certainly possible, albeit expensive. A local shop has posted tons of ammo in the last few days on their facebook page - 10mm, 45 ACP, 9MM, 22lr, 22 Mag, 223, 6.5 Creedmore, 308, 7.62x52, 7.62x39, 300 BLK, 450 BM, 243 Ein, 25-06, 270 Win, along with piles of other ammo in the background. The problem is that demand is still high and prices are more than double what they should be because there's apparently tons of people out there willing to pay those high prices.
     
  19. CapnMac

    CapnMac Member

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    And, that is the key aspect of the "current problem."
     
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  20. FROGO207

    FROGO207 Member

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    Well I took the time and read the article. The trouble is that any of us that have been in the shooting world any amount before the Clinton years already had the thing figured out, even though covid chucked a grenade into the mix as well. Planning ahead was a help but any more "stuff happens" and we are in for a long row to hoe to say the least.
     
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  21. Hugger-4641

    Hugger-4641 Member

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    Ok, what am I missing here?
    You have several major retailers like Wal-mart and Dicks who've stopped selling ammo. Other major retailers like Cabella's and Academy are barely getting any ammo, so where is the ammo going?
     
  22. JCooperfan1911

    JCooperfan1911 Member

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    Another mass attack or the dems going at their pesky business could easily keep this going for years.

    Hopefully no more plagues and calamities to make it even worse.
     
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  23. shafter

    shafter Member

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    Perhaps my optimism is a little premature. I've noticed 9mm becoming more available and the prices slowly falling, but nothing else has really returned to the shelves enough to notice.

    I'm starting to think it might be a good idea to heed my own advice and start nibbling away at what's available now and slowly take bigger bites as the prices fall.
     
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  24. jeff-10

    jeff-10 Member

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    Seems to me the ammo shortage has been going on since at least 2008 and its getting worse. We had a few easy years in the middle, in which I bought quite a bit, but that's about it.
     
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  25. FROGO207

    FROGO207 Member

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    My thought on that is the major retailers ( mostly on line) that move a pile of ammo normally and have huge back orders. Then they are in turn fulfilling their back orders before offering any for current purchase. Eventually things get caught up and other less popular types are made and put into the supply chain as well. This will take a while to level out.
     
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