Ammo predictions (5/6/21)?

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by lsudave, May 6, 2021.

  1. lsudave

    lsudave Member

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    I know this is a touchy subject, threads get whacked a lot as we veer off topic, and the topic itself does get repeated and beaten to death. If this belongs in a different forum group, mods please move it...

    So that said, within the last month I've noticed a HUGE increase in my email inbox. Every day, I'm getting 20+ "We've Got Ammo!!!" emails from different sites, that I've long had subscriptions to. This is a big change; over the last year a lot had been silent, and only occasionally would I get a notice of a special deal (i.e. log in on Thursday at 7pm EST and we will have 100 cases of blah-blah at this price, limit 1 per household).
    Now, I've got 6-7 different sites begging me to come buy their (still expensive, but a bit lower) ammo, usually with 3-4 different brands to choose from. Daily, something a couple times a day.

    Does this mean, in the board's estimation, that we've turned the corner on the shortage big-picture? If so, how much longer do you think it will be, before these places start dropping their prices (hey, we're selling this cheaper than those guys, buy from us)? Right now, it seems like 9mm brass is sitting around 70-80 cents a rd, but if sgammo or targetsportsusa drops it to 50, the others would follow quickly. You know (or I assume) it will happen, and once it starts, it should move back to reasonable fairly quick- they will basically get in a bidding war for our dollars.

    How much longer before this happens, do you think?

    My own guess is maybe this fall. I don't think you can sit on product as a retailer very long, and someone will break ranks.
     
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  2. CoalCrackerAl

    CoalCrackerAl Member

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    My walmart and LGS has been getting ammo in lately. So yes it's starting to come back on the shelves.
     
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  3. Telum Pisces

    Telum Pisces Member

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    When primers start sitting on the shelf, that's when I'll see things as getting normalized again. Primers are being used by the ammo manufacturers for their own ammo and not the secondary market to the reloading community. When that changes and we start seeing primers reliably, I'll call it decent and turning the major corner.
     
  4. Sniper66

    Sniper66 Member

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    I did get one ad selling a 1,000 rd case of Remington .223 FMJ for $600. Still way too much for me, but not the $1,000 price tag I've been seeing. Made me wonder if the opening of Remington's plant in Arkansas and running 24/7 is making a difference. It also made me hopeful that Remington will be producing primers at affordable prices.
     
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  5. Terry G

    Terry G Member

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    Seeing a lot of advertisement's myself but still the lowest for .223 was 60 cent's a round plus S/H. 9MM 70 cents plus S/H. I'm not paying that as I'm not desperate. Who knows? I'm hoping a lot of people hold off to force lower prices.
     
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  6. George P

    George P member

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    And that is exactly how market pricing during a shortage should work; yet some will whine about "gouging", (which isn't happening) because the prices are higher than they want to pay. That attitude frees up more supply for those who are willing to pay, spreading the supply around and hopefully filling a lot more need so that demand will start to slow so supply can catch up.
     
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  7. lsudave

    lsudave Member

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    Well, that's what I'm talking about- I think production has caught up now, or is very close.

    A few months ago, if I wanted 223, my choice was Tula, or very rarely maybe some PPU (or even more rarely Federal) at extremely high prices, and I had to know when and where to look.
    The following has occurred:
    1. "where" went from a couple sites, to just about everywhere
    2. "when" is no longer an issue, these guys are now staying stocked.
    3. my choices are increasing almost daily. Not just Tula and 1 brass option anymore, I'm looking at a flyer advertising my choice of several different brands. I see PMC and Winchester in both .223 and 5.56, listed at the same site (instead of JUST the cheapest steel cased .223 Tula, in a take-it-or-leave-it option.
    I don't have to use ammoseek, I've got a bunch of sites saying LOOK AT ME now. Like I said, that's a huge difference. And like I have speculated, now that we're at this point, it shouldn't be too long before it changes to "PLEASE come buy this", as the sites have to move what they have (or get lost in the rush). It only takes one-two stores, once the supply is back, to drop the price, and the others will be forced to do so too. Otherwise they will have to just sit on it, which is financially a disaster.
     
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  8. FL-NC

    FL-NC Member

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    There doesn't seem to be a shortage of x39, but it is still overpriced around here at least.
     
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  9. herrwalther

    herrwalther Member

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    My prediction..Ammo will trickle into suppliers and dealers for about 6 months. Mostly to be bought by scalpers and new gun owners. About a year prices should start to fall and go toward normal, but still be higher than they were this time 2 years ago.
     
  10. Old Shatterhand

    Old Shatterhand Member

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    AMEN!

    That is it in a nutshell.
     
  11. George P

    George P member

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    With Vista now owning a large percentage of US manufacturing and they recently announced several price increases; I seriously doubt prices will be like 2018, but one can hope.
     
  12. armoredman

    armoredman Member

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    MidwayUSA jacked primer prices up to $75 per 1000 and I still don't see any. I concur with Pices - when primers sit on the shelf again, and long enough that they don't get scorched being pulled OFF the shelf, then I will think we're getting somewhere.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
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  13. TheBruce

    TheBruce Member

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    I predict I won't be buying much of anything ammo related until some time next year. I expect it will be at least that long until things start becoming normal again, or whatever the new normal will be.
     
  14. BreechFace

    BreechFace Member

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    Availability doesn’t matter to me until they are back down to 2018 prices. Nice to see availability as this is progressing towards my aforementioned desired end. But I’m not going to waste any money or time until I see those prices. I still can reload for cheaper than 2018 prices so that is what I’ll do.
     
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  15. George P

    George P member

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    And what happens if they never get back that low? Adjusted for inflation, 2018 was lower than the 1980s and 1990s
     
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  16. wally

    wally Member

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    Steel case Tula 9mm for $29.95/50 says we've still got a very long way to go!
     
  17. BreechFace

    BreechFace Member

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    Well I’ll be shooting very little then. I’ll be strictly a reloader at that point, shooting only what I can reload. Even at my income (upper middle class) I can’t justify shooting large amounts at prices above 2018 prices. So I guess I’ll adapt in my hobbies.

    Say goodbye to shooting sports if prices don’t come down.
     
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  18. George P

    George P member

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    I am retired and my wife retires this year but I will still shoot as much as I am; especially shotgun at clay targets. I just spent over $1K for three days (including gas, hotels, ammo, meals) I try to do that 2X/year.
     
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  19. Frulk

    Frulk Member

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    I’m making a road trip this weekend to my mothers house. Along the way is a small town with an out of the way gun shop. I’ve always found stuff there that I needed even during the Obama years.....I’m being hopeful I can find some supplies for the New Mec 12 gauge press I just bought.
     
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  20. Bazoo

    Bazoo Member

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    I personally think it's on the downhill slide. Seeing lots of ammo, some at normal or slightly higher prices. I reload everything centerfire, and have for years. Seeing 45 acp for $30 per box is going to be the norm now. Primers at 60-100 a brick is better than not being able to get it, and ain't slowed me down much. That's my take on it.
     
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  21. Howa 9700

    Howa 9700 Member

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    Few days back, I saw a post on a different forum that referenced a CNN news story that mentioned the FBI conducted something like 2M background checks for new gun purchases in April 2021 alone. If so, and if the ammo maker's story that most of their production is being sucked up by by new gun buyers, this would likely mean more of the same for ammo........and by extension, reloading supplies.

    Similar story from Breitbart

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/05/03/april-consecutive-month-record-firearm-background-checks/
     
  22. BigBore44

    BigBore44 Member

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    Recently I found a little Amish outdoor outlet. Not a huge selection but they had ammo. Even had 9mm Winchester Ranger+P. Some reloading supplies. What surprised me was their prices. They were actually pretty good. I didn’t buy anything. I don’t need anything. But since they are going to start carrying reloading components, I will likely be buying in the future.

    Side note: They did have a DVD movie section. They had a copy of Boogie Nights. I about fell over.
     
  23. Starter52

    Starter52 Member

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    There will soon be thousands of newly reopened summer camps and scout camps looking for .22 LR ammo. Tens of millions rounds needed.
     
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  24. BreechFace

    BreechFace Member

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    Maybe a leftover from Rumspringa?
     
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  25. shafter

    shafter Member

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    I don't believe there ever was a shortage. There was a massive increase in the demand for ammunition that far exceeded the manufacturers ability to fill. I think that demand is slowly starting to wane. As long as we don't have an event that triggers a resurgence in the demand I think ammo will gradually come down in price and will be easier to find. If things stay on this current trend I expect by the end of the summer things will be looking alot better. If my supplies were dangerously low I'd consider adding a little at the current prices and add more heavily as the price continues to fall.
     
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