Ammo predictions (5/6/21)?

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Ah yes, please describe normal! I think that age has a lot to do with this answer. The older of us remember the good old days when prices (not actual value) were lower. These days someone new just getting into it thinks prices of a year or so were great and now will pay the gougers just to have something on hand. I'll wager most new gun owners have not thought about or even know about past firearms/ammo shortages. Couple that with the current buy it on the net today and get it delivered tomorrow mentality and we end up with many, many upset consumers. I remember the days of mail ordering. Send a check in the mail and weeks or more later get a gun or ammo sent directly to your home. Had a 30-30 in a rifle rack in the back window at high school and nobody shot up the place even though there were probably 100 more there that same day. Do that today? You gotta be nutz!!! As I said before IF things turn around in 2022 mid terms we might get back to something we can like again.
 
I don't think it's the new owners doing this. If you never shot before, then a 1k case is a very large amount
I have a friend who did exactly that. He bought his first gun, a .22 rifle, last spring to get the gophers out of his garden. Then last summer, he got a case of sky-is-falling-itis, not so much about the demonstrations as about the political climate in general, and bought a .223 semi-auto and 1000 rounds of ammo.
Ok, now follow my reasoning on this-
he has a case. Is he actively buying more right now, whenever he can find it? Or, does he feel like he's set?

If he's set, he isn't pushing the market to stay high.

I know someone that bought an AR prior to Obama's first inauguration, along with a case of Golden Tiger ammo just in case. He has yet to make a serious dent in his ammo supply, and we're approaching a decade now. He has bought more .45 acp and 9mm, and occasional rds of .380. He also bought an air rifle and eventually upgraded to a Diana with an airtank shooting .22 pellets, and shoots quarter-sized groups at 100 yds (which see texts of often)... critters avoid his area! Point is, he's not anti-, he enjoys marksmanship, he has several handguns, and his one panic-buy 9+ years ago hasn't caused him to gather 20 cases of ammo. He's not buying $700 cases now.

People who "want something just in case" generally GET something, and when they get it, they're good. The new owners, they got their gun and ammo, and if it's a case they think they are set for life (and with their usage, they probably are). If they bought last September, they contributed to the shortage... in September. 99% of them have not contributed to the shortage since then.
 
Ok, now follow my reasoning on this-
he has a case. Is he actively buying more right now, whenever he can find it? Or, does he feel like he's set?

If he's set, he isn't pushing the market to stay high.
Point taken -- he's not actively seeking more. It's been almost a year since he bought the .223 rifle and ammo, and in that time he's been to the range twice, shooting less than 50 rounds each time. At that rate, he's good for at least 9 more years.
 
I'm starting to see 9mm in the .50/round range. That's a very good sign. It seems to be staying on the shelves and is steadily dropping. If it goes much lower I'll start adding a little here and there just in case.
 
Ammo has been appearing on WalMart shelves locally at pre-drought prices. At first mostly 50rd boxes of CCI Quiet22 and 25rd boxes Win or Fed 12 sporting ammo. One had over two dozen Win White Boxs 7.62x51 FMJ rifle ammo. One has a 3 box limit, the other a 1 box per customer. There are days the shelves are empty. Then there's CCI MiniMag HVHP, 12ga Slugs, 12ga Turkey Loads.
 
But everyone’s telling me the sky is falling and I’ll never see again $0.20-0.24 / round 9mm or $0.30-0.34 / round 556/223.

The time to save ones money is now, there will be great prices coming in a year or so again.
Some people thrive on negativity, I’m mostly positive and things! Guns are cheap again, next Ammo, then Primers!

Keep your head up! Good Cheap times coming!
 
My LGS just posted this. Pretty encouraging. $425 a case and you gotta figure he's getting it for $40-$50 +/- less than that. Definitely a step up from where we were. It might be short lived but even still.....encouraging

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LGS (Peoria IL) had Federal 9mm 115gr for $18/50rnd box last week....Had Browning .22LR 36gr for .06 round.......starting to come down
 
The issue around these parts involves the inability of finding .22 rimfire ammunition, of any sort. Visiting the CCI ammunition site, I came across the picture of their Vellocitor .22 rounds that said "AVAILABLE", ten box limit. Order placed. Normally, a box of 50 has sold for $8.95, these were $9.95, not unreasonable, look where gas prices are currently.
A few days past a week and my .22 ammunition arrived:

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Only because CCI & Federal are now under the same ownership umbrella, did I go to the Federal ammunition site. Was basically looking for their newly introduced .22 rimfire "PUNCH" ammunition. Unobtanium, but they did have the 9mm Punch Defensive ammunition, with a box limit of 4. Order placed:

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The Federal ammunition plant in Minneapolis is a 2-hour drive from my shop, so I figured being that this was a factory direct sale, I should get this ammunition in short order. One week, and I now have it.

Manufacturers never used to sell direct to buyers, so maybe this will be a new trend to prevent some from holding back on sales only to triple the cost?
 
I'm also in Peoria area, I'm told Bass pro is getting regular shipments of everything but they sell out from hoarders in the AM.

I've passed on 20/50 9mm recently.

I'm really after some decently priced 38s or 380s!
 
Smokeless powder is coming in stock online every day it seems. I see it lasting longer now than a month ago.
Primers are still rare and vanish whenever they come in stock.

The LGS has had a decent stock of powder for about a month now. Not a whole lot, but at least 1-2 pounds of a decent variety of powders. If they don't have what you want, check back the next week and the variety is different. Still no primers though.

Cabela's is getting primers in on a regular basis. They are setting them out in the AM and they are gone shortly after they open the doors in the morning. At least they are getting them now.
 
I haven't seen a box of ammunition in any Wal Mart for months. I am getting the same e-mails from business's that I have bought from before but still to high priced for me. After the .22 shortage which lasted roughly 3 1/2 years, I indeed bought a lot of ammunition so that I would be covered if what's happening happened. Some say we'll never see target 9MM for less than $25.00 for 50 rounds, could be, As far as new gunowners go very large percentage will buy one box of ammunition and shoot maybe a dozen rounds and then stick both gun and ammunition in a drawer thinking they're ready for anything. I know one guy who had to have a CZ P-09 after shooting mine. As far as I know he hasn't shot it yet and it's been close to six months.
 
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