Are 44 Revolvers Dying?

[Styx]

A buddy had one of these little perishers. We have never, ever allowed him to forget it!
Moon

They're still around lol. They are called the APX Carry now. Give your buddy a break.

 

[JERRY]

Been shooting .44 mags for about 40 years.
Always full throttle, but mostly w 180 and 200gr handloads.

Just dont need the blast and roar anymore. Hardly handgun hunt these days. Arthritis sucks.

Not a .357 fan. Dislike .41 mag and .45 colt
Nope......just get a .44 mag and heaven forbid, back it off to.44 special power level.

BTW, didnt Inspector Callahan in " Magnum Force" claim he shot .44 Specials in his 29 ?

My dad shot his 3 screw a lot, but also due to arthritis gave up on it 20 yrs back.
The gun oils had shellacked, it sat so long

IMHO the "44 revolvers dying" thing is probably true......because so many 44 mag shooters are getting old and many actually dying off.

No. If you research it the writer-director of the movie was missquoted by Clint. It's supposed to be a special light magnum load. During the take it Clint said a light special load. The general public not being very gun savvy particularly back then they just rolled with it.

 

[SDGlock23]

I haven't thought that much about it, but I wouldn't say it's dying. I have three 44 Mags, a 629 5", 629 2.75" PC and a 7.5" Super Blackhawk Bisley Hunter. I really love revolvers, the 44 Mag and .357 Mag are easily two of my all time favorite cartridges, but that said, I don't carry a revolver and I can see why most don't these days. I usually keep one loaded up for use around the house as a secondary or tertiary option, but I can also see why not many would buy a 44 Mag, which isn't because it's bad, it's just not that practical to most people. It's heavy, it's low capacity, not that easy to carry and it can certainly recoil and if people complain about .40 recoil, they probably better not fire a 44 Mag or anything bigger. I think the 44 strikes up a great balance of size and power, I've had more powerful cartridges (454 Casull, 475 Linebaugh, 500 S&W...all great options BTW) but there aren't many things a 44 Mag can't stop, plus you get plenty of gun and ammo options for it.

 

[Varminterror]

ATF reports for revolvers produced each year in 44mag, so looking back over the last ~20yrs:

2022: 44,105
2021: 28,927
2020: 27,151
2019: 26,507
2018: 38,409
2017: 42,006
2016: 51,451
2015: 48,170
2014: 41,640
2013: 46,466
2012: 36,116
2011: 35,773
2010: 45,361
2009: 29,967
2008: 31,135
2007: 46,419
2006: 54,308
2005: 25,802
2004: 35,097
2003: 46,533
2002: 46,080




Eh, sure, 44mag market declined a bit for a while. From 2002 through 2013, the 5 year rolling average hovered right around 40,000 units per year, which rose and peaked in 2015, and then relatively declined over the next decade. The 2022 production bucked the trend, buoying the rolling average a bit, but not having the 2023 data yet reporting, it's hard to tell whether that upswing will persist, or maybe was just a market volume correction, or just a fluke.

So eh, the last ~8yrs have been a slight downtrend, reducing from a half a decade averaging over 40,000 units, then 2015 through 2019 seeing a ~30% market drawdown. But it's a highly volatile market (standard deviation of these 21 years is ~8700 units), and we've seen other multi-year saddles in the data which didn't persist, so I wouldn't necessarily say there is any reason to believe the 44mag is anywhere near "dying".

 

[Slamfire]

ATF reports for revolvers produced each year in 44mag, so looking back over the last ~20yrs:

2022: 44,105
2021: 28,927
2020: 27,151
2019: 26,507
2018: 38,409
2017: 42,006
2016: 51,451
2015: 48,170
2014: 41,640
2013: 46,466
2012: 36,116
2011: 35,773
2010: 45,361
2009: 29,967
2008: 31,135
2007: 46,419
2006: 54,308
2005: 25,802
2004: 35,097
2003: 46,533
2002: 46,080

Outstanding! Now comparisons can be made against other pistol mechanisms, and other calibers, if others can find that data. I searched and only found total pistol quantities. I did call S&W this week for M41 parts. I asked customer service how many 44 Mags they make/made and customer service did not know! I was told three or four models are being made, but no idea on production run quantity. I received the impression S&W makes firearms after distributors place orders, so it is a pull driven process.

Now a comment about "44's" withering. If the only cartridge "doing well" in the 44 caliber category is a cartridge dating from 1955, my conclusion is, not a lot of growth or experimentation in 44's.

I was given an April dealer's catalogue. nine models of S&W 9mm's. Thirty nine Glock 9mm models. A four inch and six in 44 Mag Anaconda. Those Colt revolvers were the only 44 Magnums in the catalogue. There were twelve 45 LC Colt single action Army replicas. Ruger had two .22lr single action revolvers, Heritage Manufacturing had 17 22 lr single action revolvers, and four .22lr revolver carbines. There were oodles of 9mm's made by other brands, and a lot of 1911's. The 1911 is alive and well! Standard Manufacturing has a Full Damascus 1911 , $6399 dealer cost! If you want to have the most interesting pistol in the room, run to the local gunstore and get one. I did not see any other 44's but for the Colt Anaconda's. Of course this is only one Spring catalogue. Others can do the statistics, divide all the 44 Magnums by the number of 9mm's being sold, and see if the number is closer to a smalll infinitesimal , or a big infinitesimal.

 

[Showman]

I know I've gotten away from 44 mag, my hands & wrists don't appreciate the magnum loads anymore. A shooting buddy is in the same boat. Might look into 44 special but for the most part it's 9mm or 38. And a lot

My personal "take" on "Is the .44 dying?" thing: I live in a world apart from the one that gun writers live in. I've always known "good old common folks"...blue collar people who have guns for reasons important to them. I live in that world, too. I remember when guys (and some gals) flocked to the theaters the very minute that Clint Eastwood brought out the latest "Dirty Harry" flick...or any other movie like The Gauntlet that featured a gun that looked like Harry's. People would love seeing Clint sling around those big hog legs, maybe even consider having one, but in the end, they'd go buy things like Llamas, Dan Wessons, Smith and Wesson .357 Combat Magnums and Ruger Security Sixes... the "9mms" of the 1970s and 80s. Forty-two years ago, I knew relatively few people who owned .44 mags and more often than not, they owned Marlin 1894s and Ruger Deerfields, not pistols. The few people I knew who shot .44 magnum pistols almost always owned Super Blackhawks with the 7.5 inch barrels. The guys who owned them either owned them to hunt with or for the novelty of having a .44 mag. I would see tons of .38s and .357s at auto stores, outdoor stores, and pawn shops...once in a blue moon, I'd see a .44.
My first .44 mag was an Intercontinental Super Dakota that I bought off a friend who needed money. My second was a Super Blackhawk. Money got tight a few years back so, unfortunately, I had to part with it. Part of what factored into my decision was reading about how aging and shooting .44s don't often mix. My thought was, "Let somebody younger have it. I'd rather shoot guns I can shoot more often, and if I need rifle power, I'll use a rifle,"

 

[Varminterror]

Now comparisons can be made against other pistol mechanisms, and other calibers, if others can find that data.

The AFMER summary report is specific for Handguns by cartridge, but not necessarily by mechanism. Although, I expect it is safe to assume that the order of magnitude difference between ALL revolvers in total compared to pistols, and order of magnitude difference between 9mm and all other pistols is a fair indication that an assumption that non-semiauto pistols are negligible in that tally compared to the semi-auto count. But we can see the relative popularity for 9mm compared to other handguns. I'll admit, I'm a little surprised how many 380's are reported compared to the number of 22's - I would have thought far more 22's would be sold than 380's, so being within 50% surprised me.



The same source, but in the actual AFMER data tables, offers this data broken down by manufacturer. There is a slight skewing of the data, however, as you review the manufacturer types, where some firearms can actually be double counted - for instance, there are "manufacturers" listed there which are simply custom gunsmiths, but as they rebuild certain firearms, they become listed as manufacturers - so a Ruger GP100 could get counted in Ruger's filing, but then again counted in Gemini Customs' filing as they rebuild that revolver.

 

[Jack Ryan]

The people I knew who owned them bought Redhawks in 44 and 45 colt and they shot bowling pins with them.

 

[rugerman89]

Ive had several 44's over the years, both rifles and handguns. Always liked them, and I still do. Im down to three these days, all handguns, a 629, a 696, and a NM Blackhawk. All with barrels 4" or less. For a serious "defensive" type carry weapon, anything longer than 4" doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Now if you're hunting with one, that's a bit different.

I kind of doubt the 44's are dying off, but Im not really in the market for one these days, unless I came across a version of one of the older Smiths in either a Special or Mag that interested me, so they arent big on my list.

I do load a fair amount for mine, and shoot them all fairly regularly, but they are at the bottom of my ammo expenditures these days, and only account for a couple of thousand rounds each year.

If I were to go someplace where the critters were a serious issue or threat, none of those would be my choice though. Something like a Glock 20 in 10mm just makes more sense to me, especially when the critter knows Im there and its coming after me, vs shooting something that doesn't know its the one being hunted until its shot. Big difference in how things are likely to go, especially if surprise is a factor.

I love that you still expend a couple of thousand rounds each year of the caliber at the bottom of your ammo expenditure list! You lead a blessed life!

 

[Miami_JBT]

The AFMER summary report is specific for Handguns by cartridge, but not necessarily by mechanism. Although, I expect it is safe to assume that the order of magnitude difference between ALL revolvers in total compared to pistols, and order of magnitude difference between 9mm and all other pistols is a fair indication that an assumption that non-semiauto pistols are negligible in that tally compared to the semi-auto count. But we can see the relative popularity for 9mm compared to other handguns. I'll admit, I'm a little surprised how many 380's are reported compared to the number of 22's - I would have thought far more 22's would be sold than 380's, so being within 50% surprised me.

View attachment 1209860

The same source, but in the actual AFMER data tables, offers this data broken down by manufacturer. There is a slight skewing of the data, however, as you review the manufacturer types, where some firearms can actually be double counted - for instance, there are "manufacturers" listed there which are simply custom gunsmiths, but as they rebuild certain firearms, they become listed as manufacturers - so a Ruger GP100 could get counted in Ruger's filing, but then again counted in Gemini Customs' filing as they rebuild that revolver.

Who the hell is buying .25 ACP?

 

[Mark_Mark]

Who the hell is buying .25 ACP?

Hey! my 1st gun was a Raven or something .25! it only jammed if it was dirty, cold, wet, or feeling bad! but it worked and it was $50 OTD

 

[Styx]

ATF reports for revolvers produced each year in 44mag, so looking back over the last ~20yrs:

2022: 44,105
2021: 28,927
2020: 27,151
2019: 26,507
2018: 38,409
2017: 42,006
2016: 51,451
2015: 48,170
2014: 41,640
2013: 46,466
2012: 36,116
2011: 35,773
2010: 45,361
2009: 29,967
2008: 31,135
2007: 46,419
2006: 54,308
2005: 25,802
2004: 35,097
2003: 46,533
2002: 46,080


View attachment 1209828

Eh, sure, 44mag market declined a bit for a while. From 2002 through 2013, the 5 year rolling average hovered right around 40,000 units per year, which rose and peaked in 2015, and then relatively declined over the next decade. The 2022 production bucked the trend, buoying the rolling average a bit, but not having the 2023 data yet reporting, it's hard to tell whether that upswing will persist, or maybe was just a market volume correction, or just a fluke.

So eh, the last ~8yrs have been a slight downtrend, reducing from a half a decade averaging over 40,000 units, then 2015 through 2019 seeing a ~30% market drawdown. But it's a highly volatile market (standard deviation of these 21 years is ~8700 units), and we've seen other multi-year saddles in the data which didn't persist, so I wouldn't necessarily say there is any reason to believe the 44mag is anywhere near "dying".

I'd also add that the downward trend in sales were often not specific to 44mag or it becoming less popular. There were typically outside political influences and outside forces that affected overall firearm sales up and down during these time frames..... For example, sales went up in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was expected to win the Presidentcy. Then when Trump won and panic buying stopped, prices and production dropped. Now we're seeing a return to the normal 45k +/- annual sales.

What I can see from the data is that 44mag revolvers aren't dying off typically stay at a baseline of appropriately 41,000 annual on a 20 year average. What we can also put to rest is the argument that revolver calibers bigger than 44mag are more popular and outsell 44mag.

 

[Miami_JBT]

I'd also add that the downward trend in sales were often not specific to 44mag or it becoming less popular. There were typically outside political influences and outside forces that affected overall firearm sales up and down during these time frames..... For example, sales went up in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was expected to win the Presidentcy. Then when Trump won and panic buying stopped, prices and production dropped. Now we're seeing a return to the normal 45k +/- annual sales.

What I can see from the data is that 44mag revolvers aren't dying off typically stay at a baseline of appropriately 41,000 annual on a 20 year average. What we can also put to rest is the argument that revolver calibers bigger than 44mag are more popular and outsell 44mag.

Yup, the Great Trump Slump absolutely destroyed a number of large dealers, manufacturers, and distributors. Leading up to November 2016, folks were panic buying left and right. They all expanded their operations on credit due to it looking like Hillary was going to win and to cater to the continued panic buying. But when Trump pulled a win, buyers stopped panic buying. In fact, folks dumped like new in box guns on the used market. The market absolutely crashed. Guns just stopped selling since people stopped buying 'em.

 

[Varminterror]

I'd also add that the downward trend in sales were often not specific to 44mag or it becoming less popular.

Analysis of the above 44mag data against the larger set of firearms and revolver annual manufacturing data actually seems to prove that 44mag is - in fact - losing marketshare.

In the same years I listed above, there WAS a relative downturn in 44mag um production, and even if we think the 2022 spike was a market correction back to the relatively flat manufacturing numbers of the 2000’s through early teens, we can see in this chart that the total revolver manufacturing volume was in fact increasing during that time (increase in height for orange bars). But just like the orange bars didn’t increase proportionately with the green bars, meaning revolvers LOST marketshare over that time, relative to total firearms sales, despite more revolvers being manufactured.

This means, in lay terms, that a Lot more people wanted more firearms, BUT fewer of those new folks wanted revolvers than those folks who wanted new firearms before…

In the same way, to see total revolver sales increase significantly and steadily, while 44mag’s market volume dwindled, or at best held steady after a correction year - the same is true about 44mag among revolvers: more people wanted revolvers, but less of them wanted 44mags.

 

[Styx]

Analysis of the above 44mag data against the larger set of firearms and revolver annual manufacturing data actually seems to prove that 44mag is - in fact - losing marketshare.

In the same years I listed above, there WAS a relative downturn in 44mag um production, and even if we think the 2022 spike was a market correction back to the relatively flat manufacturing numbers of the 2000’s through early teens, we can see in this chart that the total revolver manufacturing volume was in fact increasing during that time (increase in height for orange bars). But just like the orange bars didn’t increase proportionately with the green bars, meaning revolvers LOST marketshare over that time, relative to total firearms sales, despite more revolvers being manufactured

This means, in lay terms, that a Lot more people wanted more firearms, BUT fewer of those new folks wanted revolvers than those folks who wanted new firearms before…

In the same way, to see total revolver sales increase significantly and steadily, while 44mag’s market volume dwindled, or at best held steady after a correction year - the same is true about 44mag among revolvers: more people wanted revolvers, but less of them wanted 44mags.

View attachment 1210190

Losing market shares against what? What's the 44 magnums market? What are 44 magnums revolvers typically used for and sold to, are those people buying less or replacing them with another caliber, and are the sales falling because of it.

We both are selling clothing. My market is for tactical clothing and gear. You sell everyday casual clothing, and that's your market and target audience. If my sales remain the same but your sales triple, did you cut into my market and steal some of my shares? Am I losing sales to you?

We both sell cars. You sell commuters and everyday around town Toyotas. I sell high horse power race and track cars like Ferrari. We both sell cars but have two different markets. Are you competing and comparing your sales to Honda sedans or to other race cars? Is my competition and what I'm comparing market shares to Toyota Corollas or to other race cars like a Lamborghini?

You think Lamborghini and Ferrari look at the number of other cars, e.g., Toyota and Honda, sales numbers and think they're losing marketshare? My point is, 44 magnum revolvers are in the same market nor are they competing against 22lr, 38 special, 380auto, 9mm, 45acp, and the like. Those are typically self defense EDC handguns and calibers. 44mag's market is hunting and outdoorsmen activities. Two different markets and roles, and I don't believe 44 mag is losing sales or marketshares in it's intended market.

Last, as to your mention of trends in the market, have you ever heard the phrase "correctional does not imply causation." As I pointed out in my post #262, there are other outside sources that temporary affect firearm and ammo sales that has absolutely nothing to do with whether a particular platform or caliber is dying off or not.

 

[shoebox1.1]

Shot my 624 tonight. 44 caliber will not leave my house. Favorite gun favorite caliber

 

[Varminterror]

Losing market shares against what?

As I described in the post you quoted, had you read it: The 44mag lost marketshare among revolvers in the last 20yrs, which have also lost marketshare as a whole among firearms in that time.

 

[Varminterror]

have you ever heard the phrase "correctional does not imply causation."

The phrase is:

“correlation does not imply causation.”

You seem to be grasping at an unrealistic definition of “temporary influences,” since I presented data reaching back 21 years in one list, and over 35 years…

And it is very clear you do not understand what is “market share.” Market share is not market volume, it is the proportion of the market a given aspect holds, relative to the total market volume. So yes, as I described above, 44magnum revolvers have relatively sustained market volume (which you have convoluted to call “market shares,”), it has lost proportionate sales relative to the total market volume. You are simply incorrect in how you are trying to parse apart the firearms market - you can’t pretend that 44magnum revolvers aren’t part of the firearms market, and damned sure can’t pretend 44 magnum revolvers are not a part of the revolver market…

You don’t have to like the result, but your cute anecdotal strawmen confusing market volume and market share don’t reflect real market analysis. But REAL market analysis has been presented to you - 44magnum market volume has slipped, held stagnant at best,” during an EXTREME increase in firearms market expansion, which includes a significant, albeit relatively retarded revolver market expansion, spanning 2 to 4 DECADES… ignoring these obvious trends seems intentionally obtuse.

 

[Varminterror]

We both are selling clothing. My market is for tactical clothing and gear. You sell everyday casual clothing, and that's your market and target audience. If my sales remain the same but your sales triple, did you cut into my market and steal some of my shares? Am I losing sales to you?

This is a non-sequitur argument: Yes, if your sales volume is stable, stagnant, but mine triple, if we are the only sellers in the clothing market then yes, your marketshare has shrank, because in the “clothing market,” yours did not grow while mine did. If I am eating more of the pie, I’m eating more of the pie - even if you’re getting the same amount of pie you used to get: the pie got bigger, and I’m getting more, you’re not… that is market SHARE, not market volume.

We both sell cars. You sell commuters and everyday around town Toyotas. I sell high horse power race and track cars like Ferrari. We both sell cars but have two different markets. Are you competing and comparing your sales to Honda sedans or to other race cars? Is my competition and what I'm comparing market shares to Toyota Corollas or to other race cars like a Lamborghini?

Again, you are confusing market volume with marketshare. Absolutely, I’m the market of cars being sold, performance cars have less market share AND less market volume than commuter sedans. But the market of car buyers is still the market of car buyers.

Nobody kicked your dog here. I have over 60 44magnums in my safes right now, but how much I love them doesn’t change the market data. I didn’t say any of this data shows the 44 magnum as “dying off,” so I won’t entertain the weak minded attempt to put words into my posts which didn’t appear. But reality is what it is: 3,000 new firearms owners come of age every single day in the US, buying more firearms in the last decade than the 3 decades prior - including more revolvers than the last 3 decades… but the sales of 44magnums, for over 20 years, have been stagnant among the growth of the revolver market AND firearms market… more new folks want firearms, but more and more of them don’t want 44magnums - that’s what marketshare decline via stagnant volume in a growing market looks like…

 

[luv2safari]

There’s an article in the most recent Handloader magazine titled: Are 44 Revolvers Dying?

It goes thru the list of 44 caliber cartridges for wheelguns: 44-40 WCF, 44 Russian, 44 Spl, and 44 Magnum. After reviewing the guns chambered for these rounds, it asks:

The article concludes:

Is he right? Or is this far too pessimistic? Ruger did recently bring back the 44 Mag Marlin levergun.

I don't see much if anything in 44 magnum that's tacticool enough for the new generation of shooters, no gazillion round mags, no forest of Picatinny rails, no "platforms" for it.

Meanwhile, I'll keep carrying my 2.5" barrel revolver 44 Magnum on outings in black bear and cougar country.

 

[luv2safari]

I would just buy a 45 Colt for that but I don’t really like 45 Colt so I have the 44.

Heretic!

Burn the witch...Burn the witch!

 

[CraigC]

The X-frames and Ruger's adaptation of the .454 in ~1998 are probably most responsible for any loss in the .44Mag's marketshare.

 

[Varminterror]

I don't see much if anything in 44 magnum that's tacticool enough for the new generation of shooters,

The “new generation of shooters” are buying more revolvers than did the generation before them.

They’re just not buying more 44mag revolvers.

 

[Showman]

The “new generation of shooters” are buying more revolvers than did the generation before them.

They’re just not buying more 44mag revolvers.

From the looks of those 2022 figures, it looks like they're mostly buying .22s, .38s, and .357s

 

[Showman]

The X-frames and Ruger's adaptation of the .454 in ~1998 are probably most responsible for any loss in the .44Mag's marketshare.

Maybe, but as the Brenda Holloway classic goes, "Every Little Bit Hurts". The .44 Magnum- great as it is- started losing market share the minute that people started producing and buying big game handguns in other calibers.