My understanding is that ammo supply is high right now. Prices have already been dropping. Considering that the Senate and Presidency are about to be Republican, and its looking like the House will be also, it seems that the chances of anti gun legislation have decreased. Plus, we also have a conservative Supreme Court. Are we poised to see a decrease in gun and ammo prices over the next few years?
Are ammo and gun prices about to go lower?
- Thread starter Balrog
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American_Fusilier
Member
Hopefully... that would be very nice.
NIGHTLORD40K
Contributing Member
An end to the Ukraine war would do a lot to lower worldwide demand for arms, ammunition, and components. I would imagine that would place downward pressure on domestic prices.
I have my doubts we will see any marked decrease in component prices. Manufacturers have us in the pot and have brought the temp up and we bought it.
Would love to see $30 powder, $40 primers and $40 shot again but probably not in my lifetime. And I'm only 80.
Would love to see $30 powder, $40 primers and $40 shot again but probably not in my lifetime. And I'm only 80.
Anchorite
Member
Nothing sells more guns (or destroys more of them) than politicians.
My guess is prices will dip some, but demand has been so stout I don’t think we see the market soften. Just my opinion, and you know what they say about opinions….
My guess is prices will dip some, but demand has been so stout I don’t think we see the market soften. Just my opinion, and you know what they say about opinions….
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jmorris
Member
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2005
- Messages
- 26,136
If we didn't import everything except guns and ammunition from China and other places that would help too.
If they want to see what .gov controls do to prices, they should just look there. I could use some more of that $2/box Norinco yellow box .223 more than I could another TV...
If they want to see what .gov controls do to prices, they should just look there. I could use some more of that $2/box Norinco yellow box .223 more than I could another TV...
NIGHTLORD40K
Contributing Member
Now that you mention it, a likely trade war with China will drive ammo prices UP because so many precursor chemicals and metals are imported from there.
lysanderxiii
Member
AlexanderA
Member
I think so. Prices have been going up because of demand, and that in turn has been going up because of threats of bans and restrictions. Remove the threats of bans (with Republicans in charge), and demand will go down as will prices. Simple economics.
However, this will also have the effect of decimating the gun industry in general, and the retail gun trade in particular. There would be a lot of business failures until a new equilibrium is reached.
I think demand will go down. Way down.
MachIVshooter
Member
Hard to say. While the looming threat of anti-gun legislation causes banics and in turn a supply/demand disparity which drives prices up, the absence of that threat doesn't necessarily lower demand enough to create a product-saturated market which forces price drops. And you have to consider inflation with the resultant increase in labor costs. A lot of these things are currently pretty near prices they were 20 or 40 years ago when adjusted for inflation. In 2003 when I first got into handloading, powders ranged from $18-$25/lb. In 2024 dollars, that's $32-$43. I just ordered a bunch of different powders from Powder Valley with per pound prices ranging from $33.75-$38.69.
Ignition Override
Member
Caution: A few retailers with Steep price discounts on Ammoseek in the last week can have hidden Huge shipping costs.
A guy here or on AKfiles noticed this while processing-then cancelled his order of .308 ammo.
This deception is just with the few lowest-priced ads.
.308 prices overall have been stable for about two years, so why would demand Now significantly drop?
And Inflation can’t suddenly decrease.
A guy here or on AKfiles noticed this while processing-then cancelled his order of .308 ammo.
This deception is just with the few lowest-priced ads.
.308 prices overall have been stable for about two years, so why would demand Now significantly drop?
And Inflation can’t suddenly decrease.
doubleh
Member
I would imagine gun owners everywhere in the nation breathed a huge sigh of relief Wednesday morning. I know I did and every one I have spoken with, gun person or not, did so. I doubt there will be a big run on gun buying like in a couple of previous elections. The ultimate factor in pricing will be if the supply of guns or any kind of accessory exceeded the demand just like any other thing be it gasoline, bread, or toilet paper.
Will any gun friendly laws appear in the next four years? Doubtful. Anything good will come from the courts and not Congress which has shown to do nothing.
Will any gun friendly laws appear in the next four years? Doubtful. Anything good will come from the courts and not Congress which has shown to do nothing.
CapnMac
Member
Like most things in the "gun world" we pretty much have to wait and see.
Much will likely turn on if inflation eases, and, if so, by how much. (Price of crude will be an influence, too, but the levers that move that are many and varied.)
The ammo shelves at my LGS are pretty lean right now--but, that's also the result of a huge amount of online competition, and inflation "spoiling" discretionary funds, and the proximity to the holidays. Keeping the doors open and the lights on is a constant struggle for brick-and-mortar gun shops as is.
It's the sort of thing a person is not likely to eke out much profit by "gouging" on shipping and handling.
This does not mean it's not happening, but it may not be something that "blanket" assertions can be made about.
Much will likely turn on if inflation eases, and, if so, by how much. (Price of crude will be an influence, too, but the levers that move that are many and varied.)
The ammo shelves at my LGS are pretty lean right now--but, that's also the result of a huge amount of online competition, and inflation "spoiling" discretionary funds, and the proximity to the holidays. Keeping the doors open and the lights on is a constant struggle for brick-and-mortar gun shops as is.
Shipping ammo is fraught with expense. You are shipping heavy weights, often in atypical package sizes (versus other parcels). You have to comply with all the ORM-D requirements, as well (which includes going by Ground, rather than Air). These are very real costs, and are significantly higher than the sorts of shipping costs seen with other online items. The costs of staffing warehouses and properly shipping wares is not exactly inexpensive, either,
It's the sort of thing a person is not likely to eke out much profit by "gouging" on shipping and handling.
This does not mean it's not happening, but it may not be something that "blanket" assertions can be made about.
Ignition Override
Member
Capn Mac: True. I was only discussing two or three of the ammo distributors. They were at the very top of the first page of Ammoseek.
Well over $100 to ship (approx.) whichever size of .308 “case” seemed high to a fellow shooter.
Well over $100 to ship (approx.) whichever size of .308 “case” seemed high to a fellow shooter.
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AlexanderA
Member
Even if inflation eases, prices will remain high. In other words, we won't return to pre-COVID prices. Caught in a household budget crunch, many gun owners who bought during previous panics may have to sell their guns. So these would be added to the glut of new guns coming from the manufacturers. There would be the double whammy of oversupply combined with under-demand.
This would not be a good time to be in the gun business.
Terry G
Member
Yeah, I got burned. A 50 round box of Tokarev 7.62 X 25 MM for $24.95, not great, but not bad. Tax and shipping and it was $41.00.
I’m seeing the gun prices all over. I’ve found some GREAT deals lately. Cause people are selling stuff to get cash. I am only buying used however. Couldn’t tell you about new prices. Lots of inventory is sitting and deals are to be found. As to ammo… I agree that it probably won’t come down a lot cause people continue to buy at these prices.
Miami_JBT
Member
There will be another slump.
When Trump was elected in 2016, the market crashed.
Manufacturers, distributors, and dealers were preparing for Clinton to win. Which meant the possibility of gun control in the near future.
Manufacturers went full bore on manufacturing goods for the market. Distributors and dealers purchased those goods with the belief that there would be a panic buy and then gun control being enacted.
Everyone did it on credit.
Well, when Trump won, the market crashed because the consumer had no drive to buy guns and ammo.
Suddenly, all these businesses that are up to their eyeballs in merchandise and debt and there's no demand for it.
Manufacturers went out of business, distributors went out of business, and so did dealers.
The Trump Slump lasted until 2018 when Parkland and Las Vegas happened. It ended when Trump started discussing gun control with lawmakers and even bypassed Congress to enact gun control via executive order.
And then panic buying went into high gear with the pandemic. Then you had everything fly off the shelves and any business that weathered the Trump Slump was good for a period of time again.
From 2020 to about the middle of 2022, there was steady movement with a full blown panic buying spree.
It started to cool down again, and especially did after the Bruen decision came out.
When SCOTUS said the Second Amendment is an inalienable right OUTSIDE of the home and text, history, and tradition is the measuring post for all future cases.
That basically ended fear of gun control in the minds of a number of people.
Right now and just recently, the market has been cold. Things haven't moving. Manufacturers have been extending rebates, distributors are trying to clear out inventory, and dealers are doing the same. A number of smaller businesses in the industry have already closed. Especially dealers since the lack of sales coupled with inflation made it impossible to stay open.
With Trump back in the White House and Republicans now in control of the Senate and possibly the House.
The market will more than likely crash again because consumer drive to panic buy will not be there.
There will be no fear, whatsoever of gun control coming from the federal level for at least two years. And the average voter has a short memory, so, Trump's former escapade with gun control is mostly forgotten.
When Trump was elected in 2016, the market crashed.
Manufacturers, distributors, and dealers were preparing for Clinton to win. Which meant the possibility of gun control in the near future.
Manufacturers went full bore on manufacturing goods for the market. Distributors and dealers purchased those goods with the belief that there would be a panic buy and then gun control being enacted.
Everyone did it on credit.
Well, when Trump won, the market crashed because the consumer had no drive to buy guns and ammo.
Suddenly, all these businesses that are up to their eyeballs in merchandise and debt and there's no demand for it.
Manufacturers went out of business, distributors went out of business, and so did dealers.
The Trump Slump lasted until 2018 when Parkland and Las Vegas happened. It ended when Trump started discussing gun control with lawmakers and even bypassed Congress to enact gun control via executive order.
And then panic buying went into high gear with the pandemic. Then you had everything fly off the shelves and any business that weathered the Trump Slump was good for a period of time again.
From 2020 to about the middle of 2022, there was steady movement with a full blown panic buying spree.
It started to cool down again, and especially did after the Bruen decision came out.
When SCOTUS said the Second Amendment is an inalienable right OUTSIDE of the home and text, history, and tradition is the measuring post for all future cases.
That basically ended fear of gun control in the minds of a number of people.
Right now and just recently, the market has been cold. Things haven't moving. Manufacturers have been extending rebates, distributors are trying to clear out inventory, and dealers are doing the same. A number of smaller businesses in the industry have already closed. Especially dealers since the lack of sales coupled with inflation made it impossible to stay open.
With Trump back in the White House and Republicans now in control of the Senate and possibly the House.
The market will more than likely crash again because consumer drive to panic buy will not be there.
There will be no fear, whatsoever of gun control coming from the federal level for at least two years. And the average voter has a short memory, so, Trump's former escapade with gun control is mostly forgotten.
Some say there it is where alliant powder is going.
CapnMac
Member
Oops, was generalizing in large "monetary" sorts of expressions.
Prices will not reduce in quantity barring severe deflation or some similar currency issue. If we see inflation "ease" one of the "sings" ought be significant gains employee compensation. If pay increases to match the last inflation, then there's an "evening" to prices.
It's a cruel thing in some ways. Seeing rifle ammo for US$40 a box stings, especially if you remember $5 or $10 box pricing. But, if your income increases by 10 or 20%, and your discretionary funds apace with that, the "new normal" is less irritating.
There will be strong forces to make retail prices decrease on the box, especially if the cost of diesel drops as expected. Now, it might only be $2 or $3, perhaps as much as $5, but those forces will be there to mark the products down to make the sales.
Think back to 2004, very few people ever thought the $1200-1500 ARs would come down to the current $300-400 prices. That's unlikely for ammo, true enough. The amount of inventory already in the chain buffers home much change we can see at the retail level.
That's why all this is worse than forecasting the weather, too many variables with too many interactions, it beggars imagining, let alone modeling.
doubleh
Member
Not this person. I haven't bought anything I couldn't pay for upfront in many years. I don't see a reason to support lending companies. I won't even do business with a bank that charges me fees for my account.
If companies can't move their product prices will come down. How much is to be seen. If it costs more to manufacture something than it will sell for it will disappear from the market.
hutch51
Contributing Member
I generally buy a box or two at the range when I get to it. I can always find cheaper online but figure by the time I pay the shipping the range price is about the same or not much more.
I also like to buy local to help the shop stay in business.
And I carry a couple hundred rounds with me for just in case they're out of what I'm shooting. That usually comes home with me or I bring home the new stuff and shoot up the old.
Miami_JBT
Member
Everyone as in businesses.
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