Are ammo and gun prices about to go lower?

[RetiredUSNChief]

The market will more than likely crash again because consumer drive to panic buy will not be there.

Very possibly.

However, one would THINK that the past couple decades would have taught a much larger portion of the firearms community that buying cheap and stacking deep in times of plenty would help carry the market through this.

And they really don't have to make huge purchases to do this, either.

Back in the mid-90s and early 2000s, I didn't do much shooting for a variety of reasons. But every payday I'd make sure I had a $20 bill in my wallet dedicated to ammo for my pistols. WWB at that time was $19.95 for a hundred round box of .45 ACP and $9.95 for a 100 round box of 9mm. My initial goal was an ammo can packed for every caliber I owned. Which included .22 LR and .22 WMR. When I met that, I just kept buying like that.

The general firearms community would do well to do this type of buying on a consistent basis.

But...we all know how that works!

 

[somerled]

No, but there shouldn't be any panicked people buying guns, ammo, powder, normal-capacity magazines, and primers so that demand rises prices sky high until at least the 2026 midterm elections.

 

[kidneyboy]

When energy prices come down the cost of consumables will come down.

 

[Thomassss]

I'll be picking up a .380 this month and .380 ammo is ridiculous!

.380 ammo has been outrageous for a very long time. I remember buying some for a friend at an estate sale. He was very thankful just to be able to load something back in 2017. .38 Special and .357 Mag are crazy too.

 

[General Geoff]

I'll quietly wait out the best deals on bulk ammo and magazine sales, and stock up over the next few years. Running a little low on 7.62 NATO, doubt it'll ever get back down below 50 cents a round again. .223/5.56 though, I think 35 cpr is possible. And i'll be there waiting for it

 

[Megawatt maker]

Three things will have to happen to make prices crash.

First..the two big wars going on right now will have to end..pronto! While I think Trump has full intentions of trying to make that happen...he won't be able to. Ukranie will not stop (they shouldnt...Russia will just wait, rebuild, and do it again), and it's more likely than not...it will become a bigger war. Europe is getting it's collective crap together..albeit slowly...and will support Ukraine more than they have...and still will if the US backs off.

Most likely..we will be going after Iran. BET ON IT! Trump will go all in backing
Israel. Have no doubts.
So..I highly doubt peace will be breaking out..dispite what Trump says...

Second..no anti gun bills can even be hinted at...at all. I have doubts there too. I don't trust the GOP much more that I do Dems.
So..this one is a maybe....

Third...demand may drop now that the obvious gun grabbers lost. That alone...should take pressure off the market..especially now thst the election is over...


I'd love to be wrong. I'd love $20/1k primers and $19 # pound of powder...

 

[JTHunter]

Are ammo prices going to go lower?

Good lord, I hope so!

I'll be picking up a .380 this month and .380 ammo is ridiculous!

Do you plan on reloading for it? I ask as I do for mine.

 

[Big_Al]

Lot of black Friday sales going on right now

 

[ilbob]

Gun prices are about as low as they are going to get, short of a fire sale.

Ammo prices at the low end are mostly a reflection of the metals that comprise them.

 

[PavelSJ]

Are ammo prices going to go lower?

Good lord, I hope so!

I'll be picking up a .380 this month and .380 ammo is ridiculous!

Get gun chambered in 9x19 instead of 9x17, ammo is significantly cheaper and guns not much larger. The recoil of specialty ammo like Hornady Critical Defense Lite or Sig .365 should be comparable to .380ACP.

 

[silicosys4]

The smallest .380, which I believe is the Seecamp, is substantially smaller than the smallest 9mm, which I believe is the Rohrbaugh R9

Get gun chambered in 9x19 instead of 9x17, ammo is significantly cheaper and guns not much larger. The recoil of specialty ammo like Hornady Critical Defense Lite or Sig .365 should be comparable to .380ACP.

I don't own a modern .380 for SD mostly because I find most guns chambered for the round to be snappy little blowback guns, if I'm going to go smaller than a 9mm i'm going deep concealment with a mouse gun.
The .380's I do own are vintage, and there are some sweet old guns made in the chambering.
The sig 365 is available in .380 and a locked breech and a locked breech.380 would be a sweet shooter.

As far as the OP,
I think mid to low priced guns are going to get cheaper. The economy is still in a hole with depressed wages, high cost of living, and a disincentivized youth. I think the collectibles will stay strong for the next 10-20 years or so then will drop too as the older, more well-heeled generation doing most of the collecting passes.

 

[hso]

Gun prices are about as low as they are going to get, short of a fire sale.

Ammo prices at the low end are mostly a reflection of the metals that comprise them.

Other than a little drop selling off inventory, ilbob's point is something we should all listen to. There's a cost and supply chain to making these products and even though demand will drop after the inventory reductions this season firearm and ammunition and accessory manufacturers are still running businesses that have to limit losses. If tariffs drive prices up on imports of materials or imported ammo, accessories, or firearms and demand drops we should expect the sale prices to return to the pre-Black Friday level (i.e. today's prices).

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

Get gun chambered in 9x19 instead of 9x17, ammo is significantly cheaper and guns not much larger. The recoil of specialty ammo like Hornady Critical Defense Lite or Sig .365 should be comparable to .380ACP.

If they offered this one in 9mm, I'd have ordered it. Unfortunately, they do not.

 

[Megawatt maker]

Now that you mention it, a likely trade war with China will drive ammo prices UP because so many precursor chemicals and metals are imported from there.

All the brass the US military needs comes from CONUS. Most of the civilian does as well. What does get imported, comes mostly from South America.

Believe it or not, Most of the precuser chemicals also comes from CONUS..for military use again.

This is set up this way for obvious reasons. They (US government) is also in the process of building two new powder mills, and a plant to produce TNT. (It surprised my to learn all the military TNT has been imported for the 30 years..but that's changing).

Civilian powder (and a limited amount for military) comes from Canada, Australia, and Eurpoe.

China actually has little to do with the firearms industry in the US..thanks to HW Bushs ban back in the late 80s....when he banned NORINCO.

After all...do you see primers from China? I never have. Russia, yes, but no longer..but China?

It's been 30 years since I've even seen new produced ammo from China

 

[NIGHTLORD40K]

All the brass the US military needs comes from CONUS. Most of the civilian does as well. What does get imported, comes mostly from South America.

Believe it or not, Most of the precuser chemicals also comes from CONUS..for military use again.

This is set up this way for obvious reasons. They (US government) is also in the process of building two new powder mills, and a plant to produce TNT. (It surprised my to learn all the military TNT has been imported for the 30 years..but that's changing).

Civilian powder (and a limited amount for military) comes from Canada, Australia, and Eurpoe.

China actually has little to do with the firearms industry in the US..thanks to HW Bushs ban back in the late 80s....when he banned NORINCO.

After all...do you see primers from China? I never have. Russia, yes, but no longer..but China?

It's been 30 years since I've even seen new produced ammo from China

We may have sufficient domestic production to satisfy US military needs, but if China throttles back exports, it will create an artificial supply drought and drive up prices of precursor elements worldwide, including those sourced from the US.

 

[GooseGestapo]

I would be buying 9mm , .223/5.56, and 7.62x51, NOW!

My Chrystal ball says that a showdown between the Pac Rim alliance and China is looming large! There are no large stocks of ammunition like in 1949 or in the late ‘70’s . The Obama ammogheddon of ‘07-10, and ‘20-22 have depleted long term assets.
Trump can stall the onset, but he’ll be history in just 4yrs.
The Chinese are in this for the long term.

Another run of feckless politicians and short sighted, inward looking, navel gazing bureaucrats and there will be a major shooting war in the Asian sphere. Prices may go lower in the short term, but now is the time to incrementally increase the stock.
The conflict will occur unless a major turnaround occurs.
Be prepared…
History repeats itself.

 

[Skeptic13]

I think that every gun owner is taking a big deep breath right now. There should not be a rush on guns and ammo any time soon. The answer to this question is straight supply and demand. If the supply start dramatically outpacing demand then prices will go down.

 

[Lo-Profile]

Prices I've seen lately are a bit higher

 

[PzGren]

Post election consumer confidence is markedly up and if cost of living and interest can be lowered, more disposable income will increase demand. The relation of demand and price is known.

Raising the import duty from 3.45% now to 10% will also have an influence on consumer prices, more so than wishful thinking.

 

[Ignition Override]

Skeptic13: Don't retailers--- as a group---very carefully limit how much they buy & advertise in order to Prevent too little profit + cause more downward pressure on prices?
They can't legally collude on pricing but there's seem to have been almost no fluctuations at all.

Extremely careful calculations about the market must be the situation over the last few years with such stable prices on the first page of Ammoseek.
I only got into Battle Rifles in 2021 (Very late in life), therefore only began tracking .308 prices at that time.

 

[illinoisburt]

Skeptic13: Don't retailers--- as a group---very carefully limit how much they buy & advertise in order to Prevent too little profit + cause more downward pressure on prices?
They can't legally collude on pricing but there's seem to have been almost no fluctuations at all.

Extremely careful calculations about the market must be the situation over the last few years with such stable prices on the first page of Ammoseek.
I only got into Battle Rifles in 2021 (very late in life), therefore only began tracking .308 prices at that time.

When you are looking at a commodity (which ammunition definitely is one), retailers tend to be very aware of their competitors. Keep in mind that all of these sellers are sourcing inventory from the same manufacturers. They may use varying distribution companies, but the end result is going to be very similar wholesale prices. Unlike a brick and mortar business only competing with the guy down the street, online vendors can see A LOT of other sellers and we, the cheapest of cheapskates, will generally have no great affinity to one dealer versus another when everyone has the exact same product. We all know the online prices are usually going to be substantially less than the local shop. It becomes a race to the bottom line fairly quickly so most businesses end up close in price & I'm fairly sure it isn't a huge margin.