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Assault Weapons Ban will FAIL - Proof

Discussion in 'Activism Discussion and Planning' started by LTJG, Jan 6, 2013.


Have you sent a letter to your Congressman?

Poll closed Mar 7, 2013.
  1. Yes

    142 vote(s)
  2. No

    16 vote(s)
  3. No - But I will in the next few weeks

    18 vote(s)
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  1. LTJG

    LTJG Member

    Jan 6, 2013
    How one would defeat an upcoming Gun Control Ban

    There are 435 seats in the house this year and the Republican Party took a little hit this election losing 8 seats to the Democrats. Nevertheless, the Republican Party still holds a relatively comfortable majority of the house.
    Here is a breakdown from this election:

    Party As of November 2012 /After the 2012 Election
    Democratic 193/ 201
    Republican 242/ 234
    Total 435/ 435

    With this said, with a controversial and heated topic such as gun control there can be lost votes on both side of the party line so Gun Rights advocates cant assume that they are safe just because they have more than 218 Republican seats. The reason for this is because of swing seats.

    Safe Democrat Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 127
    Safe Republican Held Seats (more than 56% total votes)[2010]: 186
    Tossup Races (won with less than 56% total votes)[2010]: 122
    Total 435

    New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts July, 2012

    Solid D 156
    Lean D 23
    Tossup 25
    Lean R 32
    Solid R 199

    Looking at the above graphs there are a number of swing seats to take in consideration. The top graph is from the US Census Bureau Data from 2010 and shows all races where the seats are held or are within a 56% tolerance. The second graph is from 2012 and from the New York Times, showing pre-2012 election swing seats. The total number of seats in play is what will win or defeat any new Gun Control bill.

    Congressmen in swing seats are more willing to vote across party lines as they need to try and win over a large portion of their constituency that did not vote for them, while at the same time they do not want to alienate their party base as for them every vote really counts. We can assume that all solid Democrats will vote Pro-Gun Control and all Republicans will vote Pro-Gun Rights, although a few will cross party lines. This is good news for Republicans as they have around 40 more Safe Seats than Democrats, however not enough to secure a sure win on any party-aligned bill. Bottom line, the middle will play a very big role in this vote.

    Plan of Action: Write every Congressman from your state in the below list of Tossup Races, both Republican and Democrat. Express your views as a resident of your home state.

    Close Races in 2010 - (Congressional District, Democrat %, Republican %)

    ..2d 49 51
    ..1st 44 50
    ..3d 41 52
    ..5th 43 52
    ..7th 50 44
    ..8th 49 47
    ..1st 43 52
    ..3d 43 50
    ..11th 48 47
    ..20th 52 48
    ..26th 37 54
    ..44th 44 56
    ..45th 42 51
    ..47th 53 39
    ..3d 46 50
    ..4th 41 52
    ..7th 53 42
    ..4th 51 47
    ..5th 52 45
    ..2d 41 54
    ..12th 41 48
    ..22d 46 54
    ..25th 43 52
    ..2d 51 49
    ..8th 47 53
    ..1st 53 47
    ..1st 41 51
    ..8th 48 48
    ..10th 49 51
    ..14th 45 51
    ..17th 43 53
    ..2d 48 47
    ..9th 42 52
    ..1st 50 48
    ..2d 51 46
    ..3d 51 46
    ..3d 55 44
    ..6th 50 50
    Louisiana \3
    ..2d 55 45
    ..1st 42 54
    ..4th 54 43
    ..5th 55 42
    ..10th 47 42
    ..1st 41 52
    ..5th 53 44
    ..7th 45 50
    ..9th 50 47
    ..1st 49 44
    ..6th 40 53
    ..7th 55 38
    ..8th 47 48
    ..1st 41 55
    ..4th 47 52
    ..3d 49 47
    ..4th 45 50
    ..5th 53 44
    ..3d 47 48
    New Hampshire
    ..1st 42 54
    ..2d 47 48
    New Jersey
    ..3d 47 50
    ..6th 55 44
    ..12th 53 46
    New Mexico
    ..1st 52 48
    ..2d 45 55
    New York
    ..1st 49 39
    ..2d 54 34
    ..4th 54 39
    ..13th 46 42
    ..19th 46 41
    ..20th 44 45
    ..22d 51 39
    ..23d 45 40
    ..24th 45 43
    ..25th 48 38
    ..29th 0 44
    North Carolina
    ..2d 49 49
    ..7th 54 46
    ..8th 53 44
    ..11th 54 46
    ..13th 55 45
    North Dakota
    45 55
    ..1st 46 51
    ..6th 45 50
    ..10th 53 44
    ..12th 41 56
    ..13th 56 44
    ..15th 41 54
    ..16th 41 52
    ..17th 54 30
    ..18th 40 54
    ..1st 55 42
    ..4th 54 44
    ..5th 51 46
    ..3d 44 56
    ..4th 51 49
    ..7th 44 55
    ..8th 46 54
    ..10th 45 55
    ..11th 45 55
    ..12th 51 49
    ..15th 39 54
    ..17th 56 44
    Rhode Island
    ..1st 51 44
    South Carolina
    ..2d 44 53
    ..5th 45 55
    South Dakota
    46 48
    ..15th 56 42
    ..23d 44 49
    ..25th 53 45
    ..27th 47 48
    ..2d 50 46
    ..2d 42 53
    ..5th 47 51
    ..9th 46 51
    ..11th 49 49
    ..2d 51 49
    ..3d 47 53
    ..8th 48 52
    ..9th 55 45
    West Virginia
    ..1st 50 50
    ..3d 50 46
    ..7th 44 52
    ..8th 45 55
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2013
  2. Killian

    Killian Member

    Feb 2, 2007
    My test is simpler. I assume all Democrats will vote on the party line. Most will. A pitiful few might not (or might ). In the House there are 233 Republicans. 200 Democrats. I assume all Democrats will. Now I have to locate the Republicans who might jump the party line. Peter King is a definite to move over. He's already said he will. To get to 218 for a majority, that means Democrats now need 17 other Republicans. Chaffetz of Utah says he is open to gun control. 16 now needed.

    I also know there are a LOT of dissatisfied Republicans right now. Many from Northeast states where issues like lower taxes may rank higher on the list of importance than gun rights. So I by no means think gun control is going to fail. I think it stands an all to uncomfortably close chance of passing.
  3. LTJG

    LTJG Member

    Jan 6, 2013

    I dont know about that. I think you might see a few Democrats cross over. You mentioned 2 Republicans whom we've lost already, it just means we need to push some Dems over to our side.

    It all depends what actually goes to the floor. Look what happened in Illinois - the bill was so broad and sweeping against Gun Owners that it failed shortly after committee.
  4. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

    Jan 3, 2003
    0 hrs east of TN
    That's unrealistic considering the differences across the nation with strong 2A support in much of the SE.

    It is also defeatist considering that we can not preserve our sport and the 2A if we don't get bipartisan support from Reps and Senators to stave off this attack on RKBA.
  5. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

    Jan 3, 2003
    0 hrs east of TN
    That's unrealistic considering the differences across the nation with strong 2A support in much of the SE.

    It is also defeatist considering that we can not preserve our sport and the 2A if we don't get bipartisan support from Reps and Senators to stave off this attack on RKBA.
  6. Buzzard II

    Buzzard II Member

    Mar 22, 2011
    Saddle Brook, N.J.
    It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and I ain't heard no singin'!
  7. xXxplosive

    xXxplosive Member

    May 25, 2009
    New Jersey
    These are the times that try men's souls............
  8. Armchair Warrior

    Armchair Warrior Member

    Sep 30, 2012
    Obama was reelected so you know anything is possible. Things that are neither constitutional nor legal are occurring and they are getting away with it so DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN and assume that it can't happen.
  9. ol' scratch

    ol' scratch Member

    Apr 16, 2009
    South of Hell....Michigan.
    Yeah, Rosie O'Donnell has kept her mouth basically shut. We have just had to listen to a fat British guy.
  10. Randall53

    Randall53 Member

    Mar 12, 2005
    It's no secret that right now there is way too much emotion in Washington and across the country for these types of bills to be voted on. HOWEVER, this is exactly why the Libs and their anointed one are trying so hard to rush these gun control bills through before the emotion subsides. They've said as much several times in the past few days. I heard today that one Republican Senator said that other issues are in front of gun control in importance and stated particularly spending/taxation and jobs/economy. Don't remember who it was though.

    Biden is being his usual brazen, Brash stupid A$$ed self and is gonna try to get it done so maybe he'll get to spit shine Obama's Butt afterwards for a reward.

    I just wonder what the NRA is really doing? I've been a member for years and years and have thought recently about springing for a life membership, but I don't know what they are gonna be able to do. According to the news, the White House "is developing strategies to work around the National Rifle Association (NRA), the powerful gun lobby."
    I'm just hoping that there are enough people in the house that have enough freak'n sense to know this ain't gonna work, and is not going to go over well with law abiding gun owning citizens.
  11. mljdeckard

    mljdeckard Member

    Jun 5, 2006
    In a part of Utah that resembles Tattooine.
    No reps from Utah, including Chaffetz will vote yes. When Chaffetz says he is willing to talk, he is sharpening his teeth with a file. That's like Doc Holiday saying he wants to ply a game with you. Even Matheson (D) won't support it, he knows that the only reason he narrowly beat out his opponent is because of issues like this one. You cannot assume all dems will vote party line.

    I was called out last night, so I did some homework. In 2009, 65 dem congressmen signed a letter to the AG saying that they wouldn't support new gun laws. 48 of those seats have changed hands. (That means 17 of them are still in office.) Of the 48 that left, only 6 were replaced by other dems, the rest have flipped republican.

    Meaning, the dems lost the house in '94 because of a gun bill, and when they re-took the house, they wanted to make clear from the beginning that they wanted nothing to do with gun control. Then they LOST it again, and didn't re-take it in 2012. They don't want this bill, and didn't when they HAD the chance to pass it. If they were earnest, they could have crammed it through in 2009 using VA tech as the rationale. Just because Feinstein et al want it and get three senators to say they are willing to discuss it doesn't mean it's any more likely than it was a month ago.
  12. OilyPablo

    OilyPablo Member

    Sep 2, 2012
    WA State (NOT in Seattle)
    I think the longer the vote is held off the better chance of level headed people making decisions.

    How will Harry Reid in the Senate vote?
  13. mljdeckard

    mljdeckard Member

    Jun 5, 2006
    In a part of Utah that resembles Tattooine.
    Harry Reid is critical here. He's not just a senator, he's the majority leader. He controls the agenda. He can say that he won't even bring the bill up.

    I truly despise him. I have dreamed of his being ended by a random falling piano. However, as far as I know, he is solidly pro gun. He has kept a strong rating from the NRA. The question is, will he bring it fir a vote to appease his dem establishment even if he plans to oppose the legislation? I THINK, it will depend on how strong it feels. If it doesn't look like an easy win, he won't even bring it up for a vote.
  14. armsmaster270

    armsmaster270 Member

    Oct 17, 2009
    Yes I did send a letter. Unfortunatly mine is Fienstien and she politly told me to f off she knows what is good for me.
  15. mljdeckard

    mljdeckard Member

    Jun 5, 2006
    In a part of Utah that resembles Tattooine.
    Seriously, if mine was Feinstein, I wouldn't bother.
  16. Dr_B

    Dr_B member

    Nov 18, 2010
    Pacific Northwest, east of Washington but west of
    The quote above sums it up in one sense: Don't let you guard down.

    You people who are assuming this legislation has no chance of passing need to WAKE UP! The people on Obama's committee are not screwing around. These people would be perfectly happy sending a police officer into your home and simply taking your firearms. If they felt like they had a solid backing from the public and it wouldn't cost them an election or seats in congress, they would take your guns right now. If there weren't some laws standing in their way, they would take your guns right now.

    The people on this committee are cunning and if the public and our representatives don't pay attention they will get away with it.
  17. gearchecker

    gearchecker Member

    Mar 13, 2009
    North Idaho
    You might as well give up the fight now.

    If it doesn't pass in the house and the congress, Obama will pass this thru with his power of executive order.
    There's no ifs, and's, or butts about it, he's going to do everything in his powers to get his way on this one.

    It looks like we're going to lose, and the anti-gunners get another win, especially since we're no longer allowed to speak our voice to argue against the power grabbing.

    We've become the sheep, and the other side is now the lion in this argument.
    I'll see you at the gun registration booth I guess.

    What a sad state of affairs where those of us in the right are accused that we're wrong, and we can't defend ourselves any more.

    Gun rights? Sorry, they're nothing more than old out of date history!
  18. mljdeckard

    mljdeckard Member

    Jun 5, 2006
    In a part of Utah that resembles Tattooine.
    There are MANY ifs, ands, and buts about it. He can't just make any executive order he wants to.Stop saying this.

    It most certainly does NOT look like we're going to lose. This fight is psychological, and you are falling for it. Stop. This is the political equivalent of crying in battle the first time you hear a gunshot. The only thing putting us in danger right now is guys like YOU admitting defeat before the battle is started. Stop. Count all the way to ten. Conglomerate your feces, and for Browning's sake. STOP PANICKING.
  19. kmrcstintn

    kmrcstintn Member

    Jan 5, 2006
    there is a new post in here about a New York state propsed assault weapons ban that is eerily similar in language to what the federal ban wants to do; so even if an AWB doesn't pass at the federal level, each state has the ability (and many have the motive) to institute their own AWB's within the confines of their prospective borders...
  20. bubbameat

    bubbameat Member

    Apr 1, 2008
    Apathy, we WILL lose with this sentiment and if folks do nothing if they feel they do not have a chance.
  21. mokin

    mokin Member

    Jan 13, 2007
    Western Colorado
    I hope the OP is correct. Whatever the reasoning/logic. I've e-mailed my representatives a couple of times and plan on doing it some more. It at least makes me feel like I've done something--better than watching the votes be tallied against me like I did 94. That sucked!

    We've temporarily set them back in Illinois and the anti-gun politicians know what an issue this is. We need to keep pressure on them.
  22. gearchecker

    gearchecker Member

    Mar 13, 2009
    North Idaho
    If you think I'm caving, you're dead wrong, and you didn't see the sarcasm in my comments.
    Read between the lines. This is highly political, and we're not allowed to be political any longe, for fear of offending somebody. On this issue they're really offending me this time.

    I'm so sick of being pushed around by the few that think they have the power to force their will upon us. I want this insanity stopped more than most here.

    I used to live in Michigan, a gun control state, and now I'm living in a place where I discovered that I really do have the right, and the power, to own my guns without the government telling me they must be registered or controlled.
    I lived where it was illegal for one person to loan another person his handgun, even just to go out for target shooting, without an approval form issued by the local police department. I had to have permission to give a gun as a gift, or sell it to another person and it had to be "Registered" in the new owners name. For me to give my guns to my daughter in Michigan where she still lives, every single gun I want her to have will be held under some law governing that transfer, and some of them can't be because they're illegal there. I believe in the right to be able to move my guns from location A to location B without being under the scrutiny of the law.
    I believe that I should have the right to carry my legally owned handgun with me everywhere I go, without any restrictions what so ever.
    Because of the "Laws" in one particular state, I must drive nearly 500 miles out of my way to avoid risking the chance of being stopped with my legally allowed handgun, because their laws forbid me to possess it. I now ship my guns to myself in advance of travelling across this country, because of the fear that my plane may be diverted and there might be the possibliity of my gaining possession in a gun controlled state like New York, New Jersey, or, God forbid Washington DC.
    I've been stopped from speaking the truth about my Constitutional rights being challenged, and most probably being taken from me in the very near future.

    How much longer will it take before we are declared the criminal?
    If we can't discuss these things openly, we're setting ourselves up to have our rights stripped away and destroyed right in front of our eyes. And, there will be nothing we can do about it, simply because we pushed against the winds of change and decided to fight for what God gave us, and no man should ever have the power to take away.

  23. Sheepdog1968

    Sheepdog1968 Member

    Jul 20, 2009
    They are Feinstein Boxer and Pelosi. Needless to say, won't help in my case.
  24. bowserb

    bowserb Member

    Jun 7, 2006
    Houston, Texas USA
    To the OP: Excellent analysis. The one thing that fails here is that the Republicans in congress have of late demonstrated weakness under pressure, and you can be certain the left will be pressing their point with senators and congressmen, both publicly and privately. That's why we need to keep up the pressure as well. Write your senators. Electronic contact is good, but if you can spring for postage, paper mail has greater impact these days.

    Also, we have to say again, if you are an NRA member, good for you. Send $25 to NRA-ILA today. If you are not a member of NRA, it's not too late. Join today, AND send $25 to NRA-ILA. In DC! The loudest lobbyist wins. We need to help our lobby crank up the volume.

    Sent using Tapatalk...so please excuse the typos!
  25. XD 45acp

    XD 45acp Member

    Nov 27, 2011
    I can tell you there is Traitors in the ranks. Mark Warner (D) va, had an A grade with the NRA. He has already been on tv saying he would support ban. Tim Kaine (D) Va, has never been a gun friend. So I can tell you what the 2 senators from Va will vote... Even if you write them, you get a lame reply like " Thanks for your input, but we cant stand and do nothing while kids die. So I'm doing it anyway. Thanks for your thoughts".
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