AWB Panic! . . . or not

[waterhouse]

Out of pure curiosity, shortly after the debate I pulled up the inventory for 5.56 PMAGs at a major firearms wholesale distributor. Combining all of the colors and the windowed and non windowed versions, they had about 120,000 PMAGs available.

As of this post, they have sold less than 200.

Granted, you have to have an FFL to shop there, but 200 mags sold yesterday does not lead me to believe that the dealers think there is going to be a huge run on them.


Also of note, this is one distributor, and one brand of magazine. There are several other distributors and manufacturers across the U.S., and I'm sure magazines are being made at a pretty good rate by those companies.

If you want or need more magazines, feel free to spend your money as you choose, but as of now there doesn't seem to be any need for panic.

 

[Just One Shot]

No panic yet but, if our community organizer in chief gets re-elected you better look out as they will be flying off the shelf as will the guns and ammo.

 

[bikerdoc]

I am not seing any panic buying either.

 

[TAKtical]

AWB? What about the mayan prophecy????? Everyone is going to start panic buying groceries and water soon. (Im not serious)

 

[Zoogster]

I think that in the last panic many people that already owned firearms purchased certain types for excessive prices, many times in quantities larger than they needed themselves. People could often flip them for even more. But eventually they found them worth less than they purchased them for when they didn't want several similar firearms and tried to make their money back.
I can recall the absolute refusal of half the market to drop prices even though demand was down, not wanting to accept a loss.
Then you had the crowd not familiar with gun politics that went out and bought all sorts of guns for the first time, things like handguns.
A lot of people became gun owners that previously had not been.
To an enthusiast they may be able to justify many different firearms because they do different things better. Yet to much of the population a gun is a tool, and many copies of what is percieved as a tool for the same job does not increase the ability to perform the rare and unlikely defensive job most own it for.

Considering that the economic problems were hitting many then, I presume a large percentage were spending money they didn't really have on firearms in the panic.
Spending hundreds or thousands on firearms, when not far from foreclosure on thier home.


So you have a market where many people purchased fairly expensive items at a time when at least a good percentage of them didn't really have money to be spending.
Where first time owners that are not enthusiasts now already own a firearm, and where enthusiasts probably have a copy of what they thought might get banned.


To expect that they can afford to go through it all again just a few years later, when the economy has not really changed, is what is surprising.
Sure there is a segment of the population that can, but I am sure much of the prior participants would be unwilling or unable to spend nearly as much again.


I think ammo could be vulnerable, because there is many more gun owners than there used to be, and ammo is less expensive than firearms.
But ammo faces no potential restrictions, so it wouldn't make all that much sense at this point for it to be purchased in quantities beyond need.
But guns as bigger ticket items, I don't see it at this point.

 

[USAF_Vet]

I'll buy mags and ammo only because I don't have enough. I ist bought an AR this week, which had nothing to do with the debate. I haven't restocked in awhile and I'm low on every caliber I shoot aside from 7.62x54r.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

I think you will see a run on gun safes first as I guess most are close to capacity these days. Though I cant wait till Dec. 22 to see what comes up for sale when the over the hill preppers have to liquidate their purchases that were made for the end of time. Should be some screaming buys available.

 

[gfanikf]

I'm hoping for people who don't know better to dump old guns they inherited or bought when they were dirt cheap to help fund some AK or AR. Cheap Mausers and odd ball older rifles here I come.

"You don't want that old bolt action rifle, it's from World War II" "You need a an AK for when SHTF"

I think you will see a run on gun safes first as I guess most are close to capacity these days. Though I cant wait till Dec. 22 to see what comes up for sale when the over the hill preppers have to liquidate their purchases that were made for the end of time. Should be some screaming buys available.

Amen! Chrismukkah this year should be awesome. Unless they just swap to 1787-2013 RIP preppers.

 

[taliv]

didn't the panic last year start the day after voting? we're a little early yet

 

[Zoogster]

I will correct my prior statement somewhat. Out of the people that became first time gun owners as recently as the last panic a percentage of them are going to know more about firearms now and want additional firearms. That is the segment of the market most likely vulnerable to panic at this point.
They didn't go through it from the same perspective already.

But while that segment may increase business and sales, I doubt it would be to the prior extent.


I was fortunate enough to not participate in the last panic, and if we have another one my purchases will go on hold.

The market already has priced itself higher to make profits well in excess of what they used to. Material costs for ammo for example are not much different than several years ago yet prices are very different.
I see the same for several firearms. AKs for example are so easy to mass produce with their flats bent into shape and stamped parts that the big factories that produce them could exceed demand at any time if they so chose. They can make so many so quickly it is ridiculous. They are choosing to enjoy a higher profit margin at a slow steady production as long as the market will allow.
We have yet to see the return of the level of competition we used to have in the firearm and ammo markets. Where they competed at slim profit margins. (Of course those profits were slim enough that some went bankrupt or were bought up by groups such as Cerberus, so maybe they were not at sustainable levels.)

 

[mgmorden]

Haven't seen it yet, but we'll see. Remember that if Obama is reelected we don't get an immediate AWB in November - if we get one at all. It'll have to be introduced in Congress, pass there, then come to the president's desk, and then have an "as of" date.

If he gets it through I wouldn't expect any change until late 2013 to early 2014.

 

[JBrady555]

I agree with the above post. Any AWB would probably be in 2014 if at all. Those things take some time to push through.

 

[tomrkba]

Nah. Congress still writes the laws and an AWB won't get through Congress unless there are strong Democrat majorities.

 

[Midwest]

The 'panic', ANY panic will raise prices. Remember last time in 2008/2009? To illustrate the point go back to just 2005. I don't think we will see these prices again.

2nd quarter 2005 Catalog AIM Surplus Ohio

800 rd can 7.62 X 54R Czech 147 gr $59.95
380 rd can 8mm Romanian $32.95
1,224 rd can 7.62 X 25 Romanian Surplus $119.95
376 rd can 30.06 Korean on Garrand Clips $66.95
50 rd box 45 acp 230grn FMJ $6.95 (not a misprint)
500 rd case 45 acp 230grn FMJ $65.00
1000 rd case 9mm 145grn hollow point $100.00


Russian Nagant 91/30 $69.95 with accessories
Yugo SKS Shooter Grade $99.95

 

[gspn]

I would think that the type of people who are prone to hoaring are still sitting on the pile of stuff they bought when they panicked 4 years ago.

Add to that 4 more years of a terrible economy and you have a whole other bunch of people who might like to buy something but can't.

Stores here are fully stocked...no shortages of anything.

 

[hso]

Stopped by the biggest and busiest shop in the area today and there were boxes of 30 round mags and over a dozen AR and AK type semiautos on the rack. No panicked customers grabbing everything they could get and no jacked up prices. Same mags and guns at the same prices as the day before the debate.

 

[AnthonyRSS]

The 'panic', ANY panic will raise prices. Remember last time in 2008/2009? To illustrate the point go back to just 2005. I don't think we will see these prices again.

2nd quarter 2005 Catalog AIM Surplus Ohio

800 rd can 7.62 X 54R Czech 147 gr $59.95
380 rd can 8mm Romanian $32.95
1,224 rd can 7.62 X 25 Romanian Surplus $119.95
376 rd can 30.06 Korean on Garrand Clips $66.95
50 rd box 45 acp 230grn FMJ $6.95 (not a misprint)
500 rd case 45 acp 230grn FMJ $65.00
1000 rd case 9mm 145grn hollow point $100.00


Russian Nagant 91/30 $69.95 with accessories
Yugo SKS Shooter Grade $99.95

I'm sad now.

 

[Warp]

Gun control is political suicide right now. I'm not very concerned at all with an AWB.

I am concerned with cost and availability of certain items because people like to be prepared so they stock up (not necessarily panic buying or hoarding, and nothing wrong with it). Also shooting is simply getting more popular. Metals are getting more expensive. The dollar is depreciating. Etc.

So ammo is getting more and more expensive, and a little more difficult to find.

 

[gfanikf]

The 'panic', ANY panic will raise prices. Remember last time in 2008/2009? To illustrate the point go back to just 2005. I don't think we will see these prices again.

2nd quarter 2005 Catalog AIM Surplus Ohio

800 rd can 7.62 X 54R Czech 147 gr $59.95
380 rd can 8mm Romanian $32.95
1,224 rd can 7.62 X 25 Romanian Surplus $119.95
376 rd can 30.06 Korean on Garrand Clips $66.95
50 rd box 45 acp 230grn FMJ $6.95 (not a misprint)
500 rd case 45 acp 230grn FMJ $65.00
1000 rd case 9mm 145grn hollow point $100.00


Russian Nagant 91/30 $69.95 with accessories
Yugo SKS Shooter Grade $99.95

I want to go cry now.

 

[Jorg Nysgerrig]

In 2005 gas was under $2.00.

Don't forget lead and zinc went from about $.40/lb then to around $1/lb now and copper went from $1.50/lb to $3.50/lb.

 

[Ignition Override]

Are there now huge numbers of potential shoppers for various rifles who were below the legal age during the last panic?
Are they "sheep" with spare money who retailers and scalpers will find easy to stampede this time, if He gets re-elected?

The panics seem to only happen after an election, because people are either optimistic or make assumptions during the campaigns.

My fellow middle-aged buddies who are long-time gun owners told me that many AK-47 clones were legal to own during the previous "AWB".
This was the case If the rifles had none of the offending features which, according to the more irrational anti-gun crusaders, apparently are possessed
by evil spirits.

 

[ArfinGreebly]

Can we wait until December or January to panic?

The rifle I'd like to get isn't being released until the end of the year.

With that in hand, along with a small pallet of ammo for it, y'all can then proceed to panic.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

I know a gun dealer that made a fortune off the last election. He was betting on the same this time. I was in his place a few days ago. He had about 100 AR's he overstocked gathering dust.

 

[K1500]

Panic or not, most sales appear to be up from a year ago. Didn't Ruger just break 1,000,000 in about 8 months where it took them a full year to do that in 2011. The never broke 1,000,000 prior to 2011.

I think there is more buying before the election than their was last time. Folks won't wait until the election. I don't think the post election panic will be as big as 4 years ago if the election goes bad.

 

[JERRY]

ZIMMERMAN BEING AQUITTED OF TRUMPED UP CHARGES, OBAMA BEING EXPOSED AND TOSSED OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE.....ISNT THAT ENOUGH OF AN EXCUSE TO "PANIC" AND JUSTIFY TO YOUR WIFE OR YOURSELF TO BUY MORE AMMO, MORE MAGAZINES, AND A DESCENT SEMI-AUTO RIFLE?

an SKS and a case of ammo can run you about $500.00 total. after that a handgun or two of similar caliber and maybe one short bbl shotgun is all you need (along with a couple boxes of ammo for each). a ccw permit and youre off to a good start.

if you already have these things anything else is the icing on the cake.