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chance of using your ccw for defense?

Discussion in 'Strategies, Tactics, and Training' started by jim49, Apr 25, 2020.

  1. Lennyjoe

    Lennyjoe Member

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    In the last 20 years of carrying I’ve had to draw my pistol twice. Both times in a Tucson Arizona and to a low ready position as the threat did not heed my verbal warnings. Once the weapon was in the low ready visible state the threat retreated. Their intent was immediately identified by their demeanor and posture as they approached (1st instance was 1 person while I was alone, the second was 2 individuals while I was with my family). I’m glad the distance was sufficient enough that I didn’t have to raise and aim but I was ready to do so if need be.

    Both times I was situationally aware of their presence from a distance and was able to prepare myself and protect my family (in 1 of the 2 instances).
     
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  2. Ernie Bass

    Ernie Bass Member

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    Kinda reminds me of the fella that keeps getting struck by lightening.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2020
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  3. C0untZer0

    C0untZer0 Member

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    The OP didn't specify a location so any statistic would be a national one.

    It's just a number that is averaged over a very large geographical area with all sorts of different demographics contained in that area.

    There were1.65 carjackings per day in Chicago for 2019. My family lives in the Chicagoland area. For the last 120 years no one in my extended family, grand parents, great aunts and great uncles, parents, aunts and uncles and cousins - have ever been carjacked - ever. But I could drive my car to a Chicago neighborhood right now, park on the street with my car idling while playing a game on my cell phone and my chances for experiencing a carjacking would be very very high.

    The OP stated that he was curious about a statistic and I believe that's all that the number is - a curiosity.
     
  4. tipoc

    tipoc Member

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    Ok below are some stats. Look at them and I'm pretty sure that only you can make the decision on what and how much you want to carry.

    The thing about this type of statistics is that they show you trends in society and nothing about you in particular. Carry as much as you feel like. Most police officers never have to draw their sidearm while on duty. You may see that or you may not. There is always the possibility of the random. So...

    https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/n...54-us-counties-2014-zero-murders-69-1-murder/

    https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=31

    https://www.statista.com/topics/1750/violent-crime-in-the-us/#dossierSummary__chapter1
     
  5. tipoc

    tipoc Member

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  6. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Very true indeed.

    None of the numbers are useful to me in that regard.

    The numbers represent annual per capita averages--the number of reports divided by the number of people..

    That's all that would reasonably be found, unless someone were to put every person in a city or in the country into a file and track him or her over a long period.

    What happened on an average basis in 2015 cannot tell us anything at all about what may have happened to someone, or maybe many someones, who were alive in 2005 and lived at least through 2015.

    The annual data relate to completed crimes. The question was about the usage of defensive firearms. BJS numbers record neither defensive gun usage incidents nor the number of crimes prevented by the presentation of a gun.

    For a better understanding, one would be better served to review the Kleck studies.
     
  7. tipoc

    tipoc Member

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    There are no numbers that will be. There are no numbers that can directly answer his question, "What are the chances of using your firearm for defense?". Only numbers that can show risk factors for the likelihood of having to defend oneself rising or falling due to a number of factors. The Kleck studies are also a set of figures. That's the point.

    There is a whole global multi billion dollar capitalist industry based on the statistics of risk factors. They will tell a person exactly how much risk they have and charge you for it. What behavior will lesson the risk and what will increase it, they know. If you live in one part of D.C. then your risk factor is very high and so are the insurance rates. 2 blocks away it can be a lot less, by their accounts.
     
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  8. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Absolutely.

    There are analyses that are meaningful, relevant, and well founded, and those that are not.

    The Kleck studies address the OP's much better than crime stats.

    That does not mean that anyone could use them for decision making.
     
  9. JERRY

    JERRY Member

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    I hope my odds of having to do so are low, but my chance of doing so very high.
     
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  10. Hokkmike

    Hokkmike Member

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    Very small. The problem is that if defensive action is required the bad guy picks the time and the place and we do not know when or where that might be.
     
  11. Trey Veston

    Trey Veston Member

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    Part of my job in corporate security is to listen to a police scanner for 12 hours every night in case an incident involves company property or an employee. I hear every single call in my area. It is amazing to hear all of the drama that occurs every weekend in our small college town.

    Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, calls were reduced to nearly zero the first couple of weeks since students were told to not return to campus after spring break. Now, there is an increase of domestic violence, burglary, and road rage incidents.

    As to the original question, I have had to draw my weapon three times in the past 25 years of carrying. I have not shot anyone, thank God. The first was in the middle of nowhere in Eastern Montana on an Indian reservation when a couple of locals decided to try and steal my muscle car. Second incident was in Marshalltown, IA and involved about 5 young Hispanic males who attempted to kidnap my girlfriend from a laundromat in broad daylight. The third was an angry homeowner in Onaway, ID who didn't like me pulling into his driveway to read a map and rushed at my vehicle cursing while reaching into his jacket.

    The last incident was over 20 years ago. Staying away from crappy areas and crappy people is key in not having to use your weapon.
     
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  12. TRX

    TRX Member

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    He's an attorney, and he's doubtless made his own scenarios of when he might need one or the other.

    On the other hand, situations can develop nearly instantly, and you have to waste time making the choice: "spray or gun?" Guess wrong and you might be badly hurt or dead. And if your choice was "gun", the first thing a prosecutor is going to jump on is, "why didn't you spray him first and see if that worked?"

    Points to note are:

    A) [as mentioned above] pepper spray doesn't necessarily incapacitate someone, particularly if they're on dope. And it's guaranteed to tick them right off if they're one of those people.

    B) just because they're a thug doesn't mean they can't have an allergy, athsma, or a weak heart; there's a tremendous amount of hand-waving and butt-covering from the manufacturers and various PDs over the subject to obscure the numbers, but "less lethal" doesn't mean "not lethal."

    C) there have been some very troubling "product tests" of pepper spray, well within its official expiration date, where the cans gave a weak squirt and stopped, or didn't squirt at all. There's no way you can test a can to see if it's any good. All you can do is swap for a fresh can from time to time and hope you didn't swap a good one for a bad one.

    D) the pepper spray can is one more item to haul around, and conceal if required, and store safely away from inquiring fingers.


    flip side:

    A) it offers you the choice of a "less-lethal" option to deal with a situation

    B) you can often carry it in places where you can't lawfully carry a gun


    "You pays your money and you takes your chances."
     
  13. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    TRX, none of your comments can persuade me to limit myself to the options of threatening or using deadly force a large majority of encounters would not justify such.
     
  14. Browning

    Browning Member

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    I have a few (I really am the lightening guy), but this is the most vanilla one and the only one that’s really appropriate to share on the net.

    Back when I lived in Phoenix Arizona in the late 90s I worked at a gun store (Arizona Sportsman/Arizona Tactical). Our sales uniform was a black polo shirt and khaki 5.11 type pants with black shoes.

    We were required to be armed and most open carried in the premises just because we were also required to have our shirts tucked in.

    I was in my mid twenties and lived in a not so nice part of town due to lack of money and going to school.

    So I got off of work and stopped at a convenience store during the day and was walking to my truck. Running across the parking lot towards me were two men, one was chasing the other with a bottle. Both looked homeless. The one being chased looked like he’d already been hit and cut a few times and was actually well ahead of the other guy.

    As soon as he saw me he screamed “Officer, help me. He’s trying trying to <bleeping> kill me” and then ran towards me and then around behind me a few feet and then stopped, hiding behind me instead of just running faster. I did not want to get involved.

    I’m guessing because of the openly carried Glock and the khaki pants and black polo that he mistook me for a cop.

    The angry guy with the bottle kept coming and since the one guy was behind me a few feet he was coming right at me.

    At that point I moved to my right a bit (closer to the store, plus I really didn’t like the one guy being behind me and I didn’t really want to be on a collision course with angry bottle carrying homeless guy) and he veered off towards me. I was in the way now I guess. I drew my Glock and ordered him to stop and he kept walking a few feet and hunched his shoulders like he was going to charge me and I picked a spot on his shirt and started to shoot. He stopped. I told him to drop the bottle, he did. It shattered. I told him to “walk that way” (back the way he had come). He said “I’m not going that way”. I told him in the strongest possible terms that I didn’t really care, that he was going that way anyway.

    I felt like I was separating children on a playground.

    I told the other guy to go the other way (the way he was running before). He asked me if I was going to arrest him (the bottle guy). I told him that I wasn’t a cop, that I worked at a gun store and that he should probably leave before the guy tried to find him again.

    I went to the payphone (it was the 90’s, no cell) and called the police just in case someone got my plate and called it in. Neither guy was anywhere around by the time they got there and the cashier in the store backed up what I said. He’d sat there watching the whole time and hadn’t called 911.

    I gave a description of each guy, cop said he thought one of them was this one guy he knew. He took my name and number. Never heard anything else about it.

    Next day at work I told my supervisor I hated our uniform.
     
  15. TomJ
    • Contributing Member

    TomJ Contributing Member

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    This sums it up perfectly. If you're in the position of needing a gun it means you or someone else you feel the need to protect is in danger of death or grave bodily harm. It costs me nothing to carry, but in the incredibly unlikely event I need to protect myself or a family member and I'm not carrying either I or that family member may not make it home that day.
     
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  16. drk1

    drk1 Member

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    Wife beaten with a pistol and raped, later died of those injuries. Two other friends murdered. I'd tell you all about it but mods would just deleat it, so I won't.
     
  17. FlSwampRat

    FlSwampRat Member

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    If threatened, 100%.
    Percentage chances for any given person depends on where you live, where you go, how situationally aware you are, etc. It's a lot to do with preparation. Do you park in a large parking lot at night under one of the big lights or do you park under a dark tree? Do you have security lights that come on when you pull in your driveway or is it dark there at night? Do you have shrubbery that a bad guy could hid behind or in? Do you walk down a street with your nose in your phone or are you looking around alertly.
    As said before, a lot has to do with how you carry yourself and the signals you're giving off. Predator or prey? A lot sets up the situation where you might be in trouble or not.
     
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  18. Dibbs

    Dibbs Member

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    I look at it like this: Not gonna live like a mall ninja, just going to embrace the peace of mind. Much the same as the fire extinguisher gives peace of mind, same with a carry firearm. The same way I avoid needing to unnecessarily use a fire bottle, by avoiding obvious fire hazards, I avoid needing to unnecessarily defend myself, with a firearm, by avoiding bad situations, trouble spots, and maintaining situational awareness.

    IMO, statistics are a game of hindsight, which is always 20:20...
     
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  19. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    We can find "reasonably 'accurate' stats" for things that are diligently and formally reported That would not include defensive gun use incidents that do not involve firing and that have not been reported.

    As Dibbs pointed out, historical statistics are, by their very nature, backward looking. Can we employ them in making reasonable future projections?

    Perhaps, but if the historical statistics describe only what has happened overall in a large, diverse population, then any such projections would only apply to an equally diverse population, and they would be useless for the different strata within that larger population.

    Equally important is the fact is that why would only tell us averages--mean values, in the case of the crime statistics.

    Without insight into the statistical distribution, an average is virtually useless for assessment of risk.

    So, the answer to the OPs question is, essentially, "no".
     
  20. Jim Rau

    Jim Rau Member

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    Did you report it to the police? I am betting you did not,;) even though I teach all my students to IMMEDIATELY REPORT IT to LE. There is no RELIABLE 'data' on this subject as MANY, if not MOST, times when the mere presents of the PPD dentures the bandit/attacker it goes unreported. Secondly, I do not believe there is a separate category for this type of reporting in the FBI stats (universal crime reports). That said, I believe in being 'prepared', which means I do not expect to be attacked. To 'expect' this would mean I an PARANOID, which is a mental illness.;) But being prepared is simply being a responsible person.:) What I tell my students is "A gun/PPD is like a parachute, if your REALLY do NEED one and you do not have one you will probably NEVER need one again"! :) But the reality is you have a VERY LOW probability of needing your PPD and even a LOWER probability of ever needing to fire a shot, as most confrontations end when the bandit/attacker realizes you are not a 'easy' mark/victim and disengages. Just reality!:)
     
  21. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Drawing a firearm in any kind of an interpersonal counter in Arizona without lawful justification constitutes Aggravated Assault, a felony.

    There is a legal defense of justification--necessity.

    Twenty years ago, justification required that a defender believed it immediately necessary to employ deadly force in self defense. Some years ago, the law was amended to provide for the Defensive Display of a Firearm, requiring only the need for non-deadly physical force for justification.

    The statute of limitations is seven years.

    There are reasons why we strongly discourage posting about personal experiences here.

    As Jim Rau points out, it is always prudent to be the first to report an incident involving the lawful display of a firearm in such an encounter.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
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  22. bdickens

    bdickens Member

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    Many people here don't seem to understand this.
     
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  23. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    That is by no means limited to people here, or to this particular application of statistics.
     
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  24. Lennyjoe

    Lennyjoe Member

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    Well it’s a good thing it was longer than 7 years ago and no charges were pressed against me.
     
  25. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Let others be warned that when one leaves the jurisdiction in which a crime or tort occurred, the clock on limitations stops until he returns.
     
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