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change ccw after el paso?

Discussion in 'Handguns: General Discussion' started by jstert, Aug 5, 2019.

  1. TomJ
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    TomJ Contributing Member

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    I understand that this is one of the arguments people make in advocating for CC, but that's a pretty limited reason for supporting it. I volunteer as armed security for our church, and we're going for active shooter training next month, so while working in that capacity I have an obligation to confront an attacker. That being said, when I obtained my CC permit my main consideration was the protection of myself and my family. I was a LEO and know first hand how seldom LEO's arrive at a crime scene in time to stop the attack. In regards to a mass shooter, I'm not saying I would or wouldn't confront an attacker outside of my obligations at church. I don't know what I'd do and hope I never find out. Concealed carry permit holders have stopped attacks in the past, certainly not all of them, but to the extent they have they've saved lives. Acting as a deterent for mass shootings shouldn't be a focus of why we're allowed to carry.

    Edit to add: IMO the relevant question is if you find yourself in a situation where someone is trying to take your life, whether it’s a mass shooter or someone else, would you rather be armed or unarmed? Being armed is not a guarantee that you’ll survive, but it certainly increases your chances of doing so.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019
  2. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    We have had several such threads, at least in part. People get permits to carry for a variety of reasons, not all of which include self defense all the time. That a person (even without a permit) may be able to engage in legal lethal self defense of him/herself or of others (such as going after the a mass shooter) does not mean that they will or are obligated to do so. That is much more of a personal and situational decision to engage than a role that one is to perform.

    However, what JohnKSa seems to be driving at is the notion that the gun community for years has cried out how if there was just one citizen 'there' with a gun, this mass shooting or that mass shooting could have been stopped. It is true, but not only do they have to be there with the gun to use the gun, but they have to actually engage the shooter. Often, the gun community wants to blame gun free zones, but we have had a bunch of non-GFZ mass shootings where there wasn't anybody there that fought back with guns, but a few where they have, often those people being LEOs (on or off duty), former LEOs, and in at least a couple of cases, firearms instructors (Tyler and in the last responding Sutherland Spring church shooting). Interestingly, in both the Tyler and Sutherland Springs incidents the responding citizens weren't actually part of the shooting, but injected themselves into the situations. The same happened at the Louie's Bar and Grill shooting in OKC where two responders (Nazario & Whittle) who were not in the shooting managed to each retrieve their guns from the trunks of their vehicles and both go after the shooter (Tilgham) and kill him after Tilgham took flight.

    The gun community is quick to herald when somebody with a gun was present at such shootings. There were excited posts about Joe Zamudio who responded to the Giffords shooting with his pistol, intent to stop Loughner, only Zamudio showed up late and almost shot the guy securing the gun from Loughner AFTER Loughner had been taken down. We were excited to hear that Glen Oakley was at the Cielo Vista Mall when the shooting was in El Paso and how he was running to the sound of gunfire, but stopped to save the poor children who weren't with their parents. Mind you, the shooting wasn't at the Cielo Vista Mall at all and Glen Oakley was at the far end of the mall from the Walmart and had the mall between him and the Walmart that was some 500-600 yards away, but for a while, we were excited that we had a guy there who made a difference even though he made no actual difference at all that was remotely relevant to having a gun. We like to try to take credit for "off duty" officers as being normal, every day citizens who respond, which is interesting given that the off duty officers still retain all their police training that most average citizens don't have, and enjoy many situational and legal protections and capabilities that everyday citizens won't enjoy in those situations. We have heralded where the shooters were "stopped" by citizens with guns, even when all evidence points to the shootings actually being over (Pearl, MS, Sutherland Springs). Heck, we were excited when Dan McCown was at Tacoma Mall. Like Joe Zamudio, he made sure to get his 15 minutes of fame, talking about how he carried a gun for the defense of others, but when it came to brass tacks, McCown was afraid to draw his gun out of fear of getting shot by the cops (who weren't even there) and the fear of shooting bystanders, but took credit for stopping the shooter because after McCown stood up and yelled at the shooter and the guy shot him multiple times (crippling McCown for life), the guy didn't shoot anybody else. Similarly, we are excited by Nick Meli's claims of stopping a mall shooter. Meli, an off duty armed guard, said he drew down on the shooter who had stopped shooting because his gun jammed, saying the shooter retreated at the sight of his gun. Meli didn't fire because of the danger to others and the shooter later managed to clear the malfunction and commit suicide, but many in the gun community feel that Meli "stopped" the shooter.

    Despite the increased number of permits issued across the country and the fact that 16 states have Constitutional carry where virtually all adults of age could carry guns, we don't see a striking increase in the intervention into mass shootings by all these people who could be armed. There are some, of course, but it isn't like the presence of all these opportunistic defenders are putting the fear of God into the hearts of mass shooters. Some have no compunction about attacking the teeth of tiger and going after trained and armed cops (Detroit police substation mass shooting, Dallas protest parade shooting of police). There are the few heroes that truly seem to make a clear difference such as Mark Wilson (firearms instructor, former gun range owner) who died in Tyler after shooting Arroyo and Vic Stacy (Early, Texas) who stopped a murderer who had a cop pinned down with rifle fire, potentially stopping a mass shooting. Of course, Mark Wilson died. In Houston, John Wilson tried to stop a mass shooter (Army veteran) who shot 7 including 2 responding officers, but before John could shoot, he was shot through both legs and was out of the fight, never firing a shot. Initially, cops thought John Wilson was a bad guy because he had a gun, but only later realized he was a citizen trying to do a good deed. Then there was Joseph Robert Wilcox. He tried to stop the CiCi's cop killers that entered Walmart in Las Vegas to make their last stand. When the male shouted to everyone to leave, Wilcox drew his concealed carry gun and was about to engage the male shooter when the female companion of the shooter, that Wilcox apparently didn't know was with the male shooter, shot Wilcox from behind, and killed him.

    Getting back to the El Paso, and Styx's query, Walmart was filled to capacity with approximately 3000 shoppers, as many as 2/3 may have been from south of the border, leaving 1000 that were not. In Texas, 1 in 29 people (man, woman, and child, inclusive) has a permit to carry. Statistically speaking, there should have been a bunch of people in Walmart with permits to carry who didn't engage the shooter. Chris Grant, who apparently doesn't have a permit, was shopping with his mother who does. When the shooting started, he tried distracting the shooter by throwing things at the shooter and got to his mom to get her gun, which she was NOT CARRYING. Grant ended up getting shot and was attended to by another shopper at Walmart, a Customs and Border Patrol agent who was there off duty, who did NOT have her gun either. So we know that there were at least two folks at Walmart, one a LEO, that could have made a difference with their guns, but weren't carrying guns to make a difference with.

    If people think that ordinary citizens are going to make some sort of big difference in stopping mass shootings with their legally carried guns (by permit, vehicle carry [in some states like Texas], or Constitutional carry), then these people need to 1) be carrying their guns, and 2) actually engage the shooter with them in a timely manner, knowing full well it may increase dramatically increase the risk to them. A LOT of people simply do not want to increase their personal risk in such situations. They carry guns to reduce their risk. Most will choose evacuation or standing and fighting if given any sort of choice at all. You can't blame them for that, right. However, these are issue at the crux of the problem of why non-LEO citizens aren't making huge differences in the scope or number of mass shootings, particularly in non-GFZs. Either they don't have their guns or they are not engaging. There is no official estimate, but based on CHL classes I helped RSO years ago, 80-90% of people with permits don't carry on a regular basis. Sure, maybe they carry some weekends, when they go hunting, when they go on long car trips, or occasionally when they have to go to the "bad part of town," but they don't carry all the time. Guns can be such a hassle. They are heavy, bulky, and you may have to change what you are wearing to fit with carrying a gun. Why would you unless you know it isn't safe? After all, what are the chances that you are going to need it, right? Like Chris Grant's mom or the CBP officer, they are just making a quick trip to Walmart to get a few things and don't feel the need to carry a gun...
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
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  3. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    My comments aren't about roles, only about what I will be saying about the likely effect of permit holders on mass shootings going forward.
    Only ones that are publicly available. The number of persons in the store, the number of permit holders in TX, the population of TX.
    It's not that it, alone, proves anything that wasn't already evident, it was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I suppose I've been rationalizing things: e.g. "That shooting was in/near a GFZ. , There probably aren't many permit holders in that state., Maybe this was just an anomaly." This wasn't a GFZ, there are lots of permit holders in TX, there's no reason for this to be an anomaly." I can't look at this and rationalize an explanation why no permit holders intervened and still feel good about that explanation.
    1. I absolutely did not say that "permit holders would not make a difference". I've said repeatedly that they CAN make a difference and that they sometimes DO make a difference. I've even explained what has to happen for them to have a chance of making a difference. What I'm saying is that I do not feel I can any longer argue the point that permit holders are creating any significant deterrent to mass shootings or that they are likely to make a difference.

    2. I've been pretty thorough in explaining my position and my reasoning. If you don't LIKE my conclusion, that's one thing. I can understand that; I don't like it myself. Unfortunately that's part of what being honest means--realizing that to tell the truth you have to sometimes admit things that you don't like admitting. But I don't believe there's really any ambiguity about what my conclusion is or how I arrived at it.
    I have absolutely not said that I don't support CC or that I intend to stop supporting CC. I always have been, I am currently, and I intend to remain, very strongly in favor of CC even though I have come to the conclusion that if I want to be honest I will have to admit, going forward, that the evidence shows it's not really likely to be a factor in mass shootings.
     
  4. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    But people CCing guns have been a very significant factor in countless more mundane self defense situations such as robberies, carjackings, threats of rape and other violence, domestic violence, and some attempted murders.
     
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  5. Anchorite

    Anchorite Member

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    About a year ago we had two guys from another state try to car jack a woman at our local wal mart. Another poster mentioned that folks don’t feel the need to carry their gun for a quick trip to wal mart. This is exactly *when* I want to carry. Wal marts are a criminals buffet. Hasn’t crime spiked wherever a wal mart has opened?
     
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  6. tarosean

    tarosean Member

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    The real question is how many actually carry out of our 1.3m LTC holders.
     
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  7. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    At any given time, I would be surprised if there were more than 100,000k armed LTC out in public in Texas. Keep in mind that of the people that carry "all the time" that a lot of them are not out in public at any given time.

    Most people don't carry on anything resembling a regular basis. They carry when going to the "bad part of town," long car trips (because it is scary when you are away from home), going to the range, going hunting, etc. I know folks that only carry on the weekends because they can't carry at work, and just don't bother to put on a holster for other activities during the work week.

    Back when I RSO'd for CHL shooting qualifications and talked to returning CHL holders, 80-90% said they did not carry on a regular basis, that they didn't feel the need to, but always wanted to have the option available if they did feel the need.
     
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  8. tarosean

    tarosean Member

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    I was thinking around 1/3rd. Based on the people I know, whom have their LTC yet do not carry.
     
  9. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    I think that's a very good question. From what I can tell from informal discussions with permit holders I know, my guess/estimate is that something like 10% of permit holders in my area actually carry all the time.

    By "all the time" I mean carrying on their person any time it's legal. I know folks who have their permit to give them the option to carry (though they very rarely exercise it), to allow "car carry" (although the TX law now allows permitless car carry if the guidelines in the law are followed), and/or to simplify gun purchases by bypassing the NICS. I know at least one person who never intended to carry a gun but got a permit to have as a "good guy card" for interactions with LEOs since it lets an officer know you've been background checked.
    I agree that there are definitely good reasons for keeping CC legal. You've listed some, and I agree with all of those. I also very strongly support CC purely on principle.
     
  10. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey Member

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    I did a poll here and on another forum asking how many people carried everywhere they were legally permitted.

    Less than 50% said they do and that's on an enthusiast forum.

    I carry at home and one of the primary reasons is in case SWMBO sends me to Walmart or the like I don't have to stop and put my gun on.

    I've mentioned that here (again an enthusiast forum) and been told I'm paranoid.

    I walked out my front door one night and straight into a robbery attempt that I was able to stop because I was armed and again I was told I was paranoid because I don't leave my home unarmed.
     
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  11. SharpDog

    SharpDog member

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    LOL, had to look up SWMBO, annnd, I think that's why I no longer have one :)

    I stopped watching this thread when it was young as I did not think the recent events would change my carry (and they do not).

    However, IMHO the fact that people COULD be carrying makes it less of a gun-free zone and acts as some deterrent. Not necessarily against all folks (e.g. those wearing vests and are otherwise prepared to meet resistance) but certainly a deterrent to the random nut case who just wants to go shoot up something.
     
  12. Texas10mm

    Texas10mm Member

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    I shoot a defensive pistol match at my club every month. Almost everyone who shoots this match has a LTC. After the match a bunch of us go out for lunch. Yesterday there was seven of us that went to lunch. All seven have a LTC. There was exactly one of us who was carrying after the match.

    I was pocket carrying my Sig P365.
     
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  13. tarosean

    tarosean Member

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    Yeah but that scenario is a little different. Having a loaded ccw at a match is generally frowned upon by all organizations. Even if your using it for the match it still needs to be unloaded before entry, not to mention you may use different set ups for match vs. carry. I can see why so many would not have their CCW on them coming from a match.

    Since my match setup is completely different than CCW. I generally take my CCW off at the gas station around the corner from the match location when I am picking up supplies (Water, ice, etc.). I use a double liner belt for competition so its easy to switch setups. I put my CCW back on when grabbing lunch/dinner.
     
  14. George P

    George P Member

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    Much too broad of a brush - a lot will depend on where it is located. There are several I know that are located in areas more filled with retired folks (and a lot of retired military) where crime rates are low
     
  15. Texas10mm

    Texas10mm Member

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    I'm not talking at the match. I'm talking about lunch at an off the range site.
     
  16. GEM

    GEM Moderator Staff Member

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    Again, a good read on carry and training: http://blog.krtraining.com/beyond-the-one-percent-part-1/

    The 80 percent who don't carry is a number I've also heard way back when from a CHL instructor who said the TX CHL instructor organization did an information survey in the 90's. Anecdotally, my LTC friends - they don't carry. One is moving towards carrying more.

    After a match, at lunch - that's a mixed bag. I do - half our guys are law, so they do. Among the civilians, maybe half carry (but then we are with law). There have been some successful incidents that are clear cut - https://www.npr.org/2014/07/26/3354...-hospital-shooting-had-history-of-gun-arrests

    Dr. Silverman is one. However, I agree with the general analysis of JohnKSa.
     
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  17. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey Member

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    Someone on Glock Talk looked it up.

    The odds of someone carrying in Walmart in El Paso is probably pretty slim. I would say less chance than most Cities the same size.

    This is LTC's issued in 2018 by County.

    https://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/Reports/2018Calendar/byCounty/25LicenseApplicationsIssued.pdf

    El Paso County had 4848. El Paso has 700,000 residents and for example San Antonio (Bexar County) has 1.4 million or twice the size. Bexar County had 19,023 LTC's issued last year. And there are a few other counties that surround Bexar that are really considered part of San Antonio for the most part that would add substantially to that number.



    Based on that I'd say the likelihood of there being an armed permit holder in that store are pretty low.

    Another thing my wife and I talked about is how for us avoidance is a big part of our over all strategy. If I lived in El Paso I wouldn't go to Cielo Vista mall on Saturday and I wouldn't let my wife go either. I don't think I'm the only person in the world who thinks like that and I would think that would have an effect on the odds too.
     
  18. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    But we know at least one LTC and one LEO were present at the shooting and neither one was carrying a gun and neither engaged the shooter.

    So 1 in 144 have LTCs there. Assuming 1000 folks in Walmart not from across the border, you are still looking at ~7 potential LTC carriers in Walmart. Assuming 80% not carrying, you have 1 armed person. How does the mantra go, "If there was just one person there with a gun...the shooter could have been stopped."

    Yes, but would you go to Walmart? Walmart isn't a part of Cielo Vista Mall. https://www.simon.com/mall/cielo-vista-mall/stores https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cielo_Vista_Mall
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
  19. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey Member

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    I'm not sure how that applies. Whether or not they were able to carry a handgun they weren't. How do they count any differently then the people who couldn't carry handgun?

    Maybe I don't understand what I'm reading but and appears to me that you're speculating on how many people could have been there with a concealed handgun permit. That doesn't change the reality of how many people were there with a concealed handgun permit AND a gun.

    My understanding is they're both right in the same place. There wasn't a Walmart there when my wife lived there but based on her understanding of that area the Walmart was on the grounds of the mall or immediately adjacent to it.

    That's neither here nor there though. My point avoiding the mall and the Walmart had nothing to do with where it was at it had to do with how crowded it would have been with people coming across the border specifically to shop there on Saturday.

    I avoid crowds on general principles
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
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  20. 40-82

    40-82 Member

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  21. bltmonty

    bltmonty Member

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    Having lived in the El Paso area for nearly two decades and worked on both sides of the border, I would guess that that particular Wal-mart has the lowest percentage of concealed carry holders in the El Paso region. It is the closest Walmart to the U.S.-Mexico ports of entry; not surprisingly, the press estimated that 1000 of the 3000 shoppers were Mexican nationals, who cannot bring guns across the border. And many of the other shoppers were likely recent immigrants and undocumented Mexicans, both of whom have limited rights to guns and the knowledge and desire to use and carry them. If I were looking for the easiest target in El Paso, I would not choose the Walmart close to Fort Bliss, the east side or west side. I would choose that Wal-mart (makes me sick thinking this way).
     
  22. fastbolt

    fastbolt Member

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    Does any of the reported "active shooter" incidents, and the distances involved, make me change my mind regarding my retirement weapons?

    No.

    My usual qual courses-of-fire and training drills have always involved distances ranging from of 3-11yds, 3-15yds or 3-25yds, and that includes my full-size, compact and subcompact pistols, as well as my smaller 5-shot snubs and LCP's. I've often even slipped in some practice on metal & paper targets out to 35-50+yds, just to assess the basics and "pattern" my assorted off-duty (and now retirement) weapons. I want to remain familiar with the inherent capabilities of not only the various handguns, but the calibers.

    For example, my LCP's and J-frames can be run pretty much similarly out to 15yds, but the LCP's really start to demand more of me when the distances get out to 30-40yds (due to the itty bitty grip and the more rudimentary sights). I rather suspect the heavier .38SPL loads (and certainly .357MAG, as I sometimes use in one of my pair of M&P 340's) probably pack a bit more momentum (or "power", if you will) at distance, as well.

    While occasionally decided to belt on one of my 9, .40 or .45 pistols offers me some small degree of added capability, at least in capacity & loading speed (compared to the 5-shot snubs), it's still going to come down to me being able to effectively use whatever size/caliber handgun I may be carrying.

    I may not have been shooting a few times each month like I was back when I was still serving as a firearms instructor up until a couple years ago, but I've kept my hand in regarding some periodic qual sessions at my former range. Just to make sure the skills I worked so hard to develop during all those years isn't rusting away too quickly.

    An active shooter is an active shooter, and if I ever have the misfortune to find myself present and endangered where one makes an appearance, it's still going to likely come down to me, meaning being aware of the situation quickly enough, and being able to effectively apply the training and tactics I've learned over the years.

    The gun I have with me, if that happens?

    Well, it's going to be the gun I have with me. ;)

    I've spent too many years going professionally armed and lugging around a duty load-out on & off-duty to forever want to continue to "dress around" what many years ago was euphemistically called (in the gun press) a "Full-Size Fighting Handgun". Toward the end of my career more of my 9's, .40's & .45's were staying the safe on my own time and a snub revolver was pocket holstered. I don't see any reason to change at this point. TANSTAAFL.
     
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  23. Balrog

    Balrog Member

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    I don't always carry but do more often than not. In the hot summer of Georgia, that almost always means its something compact, usally a Ruger LCP. I carry to protect myself and my family. I do not carry to stop an active shooter with an AR. I would not attempt to engage a shooter with a rifle when all I have is an LCP. My plan would be to evade and escape, and only engage if cornered or faced with no alternative.

    Engaging an active shooter with a rifle is just not on the list of things an LCP is good for.
     
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  24. Jeb Stuart

    Jeb Stuart Member

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    Really, yet the man that was shot and did the interview talks about how he was near the gunman and started throwing cans at him. Then when the shooter took notice, he shot him. A 380 at that range from someone trained with a pocket gun very well could have taken him down. People always under estimate the Pocket gun.

    What would I have done? Most likely, ducked down, draw my weapon and try and figure out what the hell was going on, where the shots were coming from and move away from the shooter and toward a exit. But who really knows. The man throwing cans talked about how little children were being shot. That would certainly cause a intense anger in me. Where that anger would take me, I do not know.

    El Paso victim throws cans. Man of courage.

     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
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  25. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    Ok, I went the other way since I was trying to be very conservative, and estimated that only 1000 people in the store were NOT Mexican nationals. I also used the overall statistics for the state, not the figures for El Paso County.

    So let's use the press estimate and the permit holder numbers/population for the county in which El Paso is located to try to get a rough feel for how many permit holders were likely on hand.

    ~850,000 persons living in El Paso County in 2018
    ~19,350 permit holders in El Paso County in 2018 (Based on the percentage of permits issued in El Paso County in 2018 (1.42%) vs. the total # of active permits in 2018)

    That indicates that ~1 person in 44 are permit holders in El Paso County, compared to ~ 1 person in 28 or 29 for the entire state.

    ~2000 TX citizens present in the WalMart at the time of the shooting based on the press estimate.

    One could therefore expect that there would be in the neighborhood of 44 permit holders present in the store at the time of the shooting.

    My original estimate, based on the overall permit figures for TX and assuming only 1000 TX citizens in the store, was that it was likely that there were about 34 permit holders present.

    If we want to be very conservative, we could assume that the estimate has a relatively large error and cut the numbers in half just to be really sure that we're not overestimating the number of permit holders present. If we do that, we still arrive at an estimate of 20+ permit holders in the store.

    I think it's quite safe to assume that there were 15+ permit holders present in the store at the time of the shooting.
     
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