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Correlation between Gun Control and Gun Homicides (updated)

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by cbrgator, Apr 9, 2009.

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  1. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    I recently made a youtube video explaining that stricter gun laws don't equate to lower gun homicide rates. It sparked me to make this chart to show that there is NO correlation between the 2. The chart illustrates that stricter laws do not indicate more OR less gun crime, clearly indicating there are other factors that make this determination. If there was a correlation, there would be a linear trend starting at the bottom left of the chart, up to the top right. As you can see, there is no such trend, albeit one outlier. Feel free to use this chart at will.

    chart-1.gif
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2009
  2. Vonderek

    Vonderek Member

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    I would think the chart would trend the other way. It doesn't make the argument for "more guns, less crime." BTW-where is Florida?
     
  3. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    No, the states to the left should technically, according to the Brady campaign, have low rates, whereas the states on the right with lax laws should have high crime rates. For whatever reason, the FBI does not report Florida's statistics. OR if there was a negative correlation, that strict gun control means more crime, the left side would have a high crime rate and the right side a low crime rate. The point is to show that there is simply no correlation whatsoever.
     
  4. Shung

    Shung Member

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    Great graph mate !

    im gonna use this thing in our incomming vote about gun control. thx
     
  5. marklbucla

    marklbucla Member

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    It doesn't matter what that chart said. Correlation does not imply causation.
     
  6. JImbothefiveth

    JImbothefiveth Member

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    You should also have one with total murder rates. Reducing one firearm death does no good if it leads to 2 other deaths. Also, Michigan has really good CCW laws, yet you put that as most strict.


    All these states have lower crime than WI.
    MO ME CN RI OR WA CO MN NH NE VT WY MT ID SD ND

    About 43% of the shall issue states

    While about 48.5% of the shall issue states have lower crime than IL
    MO ME CN RI OR WA CO MN NH NE VT WY MT ID SD ND OH KA WV

    MD MA are the only may-issue states with crime less than WI, or about 25% of may issue states


    NY DE MA MD are the only may-issue states with crime lower than IL, or about 50% of may-issue states

    The state with the least, HI, is a tourist destination, so probably has less poverty which would explain the lower crime.

    The state with the most is recovering from a Hurricane

    Finally, it has been shown that CCW often lowers crime, and I've never heard of crime raising after.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2009
  7. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    JImbothefiveth, the states are ranked according to the Brady Campaign's own ranking system. I took the rankings right off their website. I didn't rank the states myself.
     
  8. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    Just a bump. I thought this would get better positive feedback.
     
  9. Southern Rebel

    Southern Rebel Member

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    It is extremely difficult to make any judgment of the relationship between two components unless other "potentially higher level of effect" components are filtered out. Without that filtering process, the resultant data comparisons can be skewed either way. For example, I would think that large metro areas, economic level, minority population mixes, and illegal immigrant population could all have an effect on certain states and how they rank.

    I am certainly not a statistician, but am a mathematician and have seen how easily numbers can be manipulated. That doesn't mean that I don't agree with your concepts - I just would like to see a sophisticated review of all significant factors would look. (Nope, I am not sophisticated enough to be of any help!)
     
  10. Librarian

    Librarian Member

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    None of that stuff matters much, either.

    See John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime and his web site johnrlott.blogspot.com/

    Note that a lot of people find Lott controversial.
     
  11. Cyborg

    Cyborg Member

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    How About Brady Score Vs Gun Crme Rates?

    hey, cbrgator, how about a scatter diagram plotting Brady Foundation score vs violent crime rate? Or even gun crime rate. No need to plot lines between and the only coordinates on the graph would be Brady rating (numerical score not ranking) vs violent (or gun) crime rate. If I had the data (or a link to go to so I could GET the crime rate statistics) I would be willing to plot it. I have an excel spreadsheet set up and the Brady scores entered. If I had the crime rate stats I could have it ready to present in fairly short order. I figure on having a small circle with the state abbreviation for a label at each point.

    Southern Rebel, if there were any significant correlation between Brady score and gun violence (and I would not limit it to homicides) I believe such a plot would show it. If, instead, the graph looked like someone had shot at a piece of graph paper with bird shot then I would say it would be a fairly persuasive araument for there being no correlation. Maybe you can think of a way to normalize the crime statistics to account for the fact that Montana doesn't have much in the way of urbanization where some states have little else. Or, failing that, it might be possible to just get the data from cities.

    But all that being said, there is no way folks who believe that guns are evil are going to be swayed by graphs and statistics. For them it is a matter of faith and not knowledge anyway. In their minds guns in the hands of the average Joe/Jane is wrong. One of the security guards - armed - who works at the building where I work (there is a Credit Union in the same building) does not believe that ordinary people should be able to buy/own/carry firearms. It matters not that he is one of the least prepossessing individuals I have ever seen wearing the uniform of a commissioned security officer. He thinks that average people owning/bearing arms is a tragedy waiting to happen. Going solely on appearance he is the poster child for his own argument. His uniform is untidy, his bearing anything but professional and his rig is a joke. He doesn't even use keepers to secure his underbelt and gunbelt. He thinks the thirty hours of classroom training and bi-annual 4 hours of refresher makes him an expert in use of deadly force. He scares me.
     
  12. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    Southern Rebel,

    Your point is absolutely correct and extremely well taken. My point was to visually prove YOUR point. That the gun legislation is not what affects the crime rates, but the other factors such as demographics and highly populated areas.

    Cyborg,
    Here is a link to the data you want.

    http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_05.html
     
  13. verdun59

    verdun59 Member

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    +100 on demographics.
     
  14. Jeff White

    Jeff White Moderator Staff Member

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    There is a 2004 National Academy of Sciences study on gun laws and crime. It found that there is no correlation between gun laws and the crime rate.
     
  15. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    Jeff, that is untrue, and often we often skew the results in our favor to say that (I'm guilty of this as well on youtube). The true conclusion of that study was that we do not have accurate statistics or methods of tracking guns to make any conclusions. It's not that there is no correlation. Essentially what they said was that we simply have no way of knowing.
     
  16. Ky Larry

    Ky Larry Member

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    Didn't Mark Twain say "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I am not educated enough to understand and compile statistical data, but I know any group of data can be made to "prove" just about anything.
     
  17. Isher

    Isher Member

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    "Figures lie

    And liars figure"

    One of my late mother's favorite aphorisms.


    enough said


    isher
     
  18. JKimball

    JKimball Member

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    Nice work, cbrgator. That is a good graphic. Thanks for posting.

    I wonder what it would look like using the average murder rate over the last 10 years or so.
     
  19. PT1911

    PT1911 Member

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    Oh man... I need to move....
     
  20. maskedman504

    maskedman504 Member

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    Where is FL? :fire:
     
  21. LaEscopeta

    LaEscopeta Member

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    Causation is EXCATLY what correlation implies. It dose not PROVE causation. Correlation points the direction to look for possible causation.

    Also note the original post does not claim to show causation, just correlation.


    Taking on aspect of gun control (shall issue) and looking at select states is an example of cherry-picking data, the main method of making data “prove” what you want it to prove. We should leave cherry-picking up to our opponents.
     
  22. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    The FBI doesn't have statistics compiled for FL. Sorry.
     
  23. LaEscopeta

    LaEscopeta Member

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    The FBI doesn't have statistics compiled for FL. Sorry.

    It takes the FBI a while to compiles stats from all 50 states, conforming to a constant format from the 50 different ways each state keeps their crime stats. if you look back a few years (2006, 2005, etc) you will find FL crime states.
     
  24. cbrgator

    cbrgator Member

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    Yea, I just meant for 2007.
     
  25. Southern Rebel

    Southern Rebel Member

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    And your point is now understood! :banghead:

    Now, if lack of enough gun laws does not cause crime....
    and guns and lawful gun owners do not cause crime.......

    Hmm, maybe, just maybe lack of control of criminals just might cause crime?
    If that be the case, our illustrious new AG has a tough decision to make:

    Do I investigate what causes criminals to be criminals?
    Do I instead investigate how to control criminals?
    (Either way, the focus would be off of us!)

    Years ago, I was casual friends (mostly hunting and fishing) with a constable for a small town which had a reputation for some tough hoodlem types. I asked him how he managed to keep the town reasonably calm and safe. He had a theory that may not be outdated: (His words as best paraphrased as an old memory will allow)

    "Well, I figure there are three groups of people in my town. There is a small group of gonna-be lawbreakers that will never be decent people. There is a fairly large group that might break the law if it was to their benefit. Then there is a fairly large group that just won't ever be a problem. I put all my effort toward the first group. I make sure that their arrests are quick, their jailtime is hard, and both are pretty much guaranteed.

    "Now I ain't stupid - I know they will get out eventually and do the same old stuff again. But seeing what happens to them is what keeps MOST of the second group under control. And the third group? Well, I just try to stay out of their way so that they will vote me back in again, next election time!"

    'THE SCHOOL OF EXPERIENCE IS A HARD TEACHER, BUT FOOLS WILL LEARN IN NO OTHER!'
     
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