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Countries with high crime, low crime, no guns, lots of guns.

Discussion in 'Legal' started by wacki, Oct 11, 2006.

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  1. wacki

    wacki Member

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  2. Thefabulousfink

    Thefabulousfink Member

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    I've said it before and I'll say it again......
    Gun ownership has no effect on crime rates.
    :cuss: :cuss: :cuss: :cuss:

    If you look at enough statistics you will find data that shows high crime rates in cities with strict gun control and cities with little gun control. Now if you really wan't some interesting statistics on crime take a look at the following:

    Unemployment rates
    average income
    single parent homes
    education quality and level
    police pressence in neighborhoods
    police/civilian relationship
    level of urban decay

    The list goes on, but all these factors have been shown to effect crime rates in cities.
     
  3. Odd Job
    • Contributing Member

    Odd Job Can probably X-ray it

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    @ wacki

    South Africa, if not the top candidate will be in the top 3 definitely.
     
  4. SDC

    SDC Member

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    My first thought was "Jamaica", and sure enough, it's #2 in that page's rankings. Owning a gun or ammo in Jamaica is absolutely prohibited, with severe prison sentences for either, but it doesn't seem to do any good, even on a small island where you'd think that these sort of laws would be easy to enforce.
     
  5. ETXhiker

    ETXhiker Member

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    On what do you base this very certain pronouncement? The UK and Australia recently passed draconian gun laws restricting private ownership and the the immediate result was a spike in violent crime in both countries. I would assume that most other sociological factors didn't change in such a short period of time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2006
  6. wacki

    wacki Member

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    link?
     
  7. wacki

    wacki Member

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    Thefabulousfink, what do you think has more credibility:

    BIG LETTERS AND :cuss: :cuss: :cuss:

    or links to actual data?

    Now what do you think I'm trying to do with this thread?
     
  8. wacki

    wacki Member

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    Odd Job. STC. et al thanks for your responses. Now which state has the most guns or the most lax gun laws yet the lowest crime?

    Switzerland def comes to mind
     
  9. Art Eatman

    Art Eatman Administrator Staff Member

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    How about folks stay closer to the original question and show a bit less emotion?

    Art
     
  10. SDC

    SDC Member

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    Finland and Norway both also come to mind as examples of fairly well-armed populations that have lower murder rates than the US, as does Canada; although our previous government would rather have had their collective toenails and teeth pulled out before admitting it, the per capita ownership rate in Canada is probably as high as it is in the US (and they deliberately fudged the numbers to hide this fact.) In 1975, they said there were a minimum of 6 million guns in Canada, a maximum of 20 million, and a "most likely true" number of around 14 million (translating to 1 gun for every 1.6 people at that time). Of course, when they were desperate to sell their registration scheme, they said "No, no, no, there are only 6 million of those evil old guns in Canada. You can trust us, we wouldn't lie to you, would we?"

    What people aren't willing to address in this issue is the role that social problems play; if "more guns equals more murders", I would expect those parts of the population that own the most guns to also be committing the most murders, no? Well, almost no matter how you slice it (by age, by state, by race, etc.) that isn't true. (The only variable I can think of where it DOES work is by sex; males are both the most common to own a gun and commit a murder.) In fact, several groups stand out as going strongly AGAINST the "more guns=more murders" hypothesis; young black males between the ages of 14 and 24 consistently commit around half of all US murders, yet only form ~3% of the population as a whole. Even if we were to give THREE guns to everyone in that cohort, they still wouldn't come anywhere close to owning half of all the guns in the US, so why are they committing half of all the murders? That's right, social conditions. And, since race is a radioactive topic, those problems aren't likely to be solved anytime soon. Democrats won't dare single out a voter bloc they depend on, and Republicans know they'd be skinned alive if they brought it up. This map (http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/countymapredblue.png) shows the way the 2004 US election broke down by county (red=Republican, blue=Democrat), and since you can cross-match those results to the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports statistics, an interesting pattern emerges. In those counties that voted Republican, the average murder rate was less than 2.5 per 100,000 (where CANADA'S is, BTW); in those counties that voted Democrat, the average murder rate was 13 per 100,000.
     
  11. wacki

    wacki Member

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    SDC, very interesting. Thankyou very much for posting. The crossmatched data from the FBI is unreal. You were stating pretty exact numbers. Is the cross-matched analysis online anywhere? I really don't want to re-analyze every county in the US if it's already been done.
     
  12. BullfrogKen

    BullfrogKen Moderator Emeritus

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    The Samurai, the Mountie, and the Cowboy by David Kopel addresses this subject thoroughly.
     
  13. sterling180

    sterling180 Member

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    Violent crime was on the rise anyway,both in the UK and probably in Australia,as well.The last firearm ban was 8 years ago,when match pistols were prohibited,after Blair entered office,before that centrefire pistols were banned in October 1997,by the previous PM John Major and Secretary of State,Mr Micheal Howard-in December 1996.

    As for SLRs,well Micheal Ryan went crazy in Hungerford,on August 19th 1987 and killed many people,in that small town-resulting in the 1988 Firearm Ammendment act,in 1989.

    The point is that many polititions and citizens in the UK,see that giving up ones rights to firearms,will stop psychos from killing people at random and that criminals will get guns anyway.So forget anything about violent crime in general,in the UK:the bans were made to stop psychos from obtaining them,on a license and not a criminal.After all a criminal would find it tough getting a license and would be rejected from applying in the UK-whereas a quiet,Simon Parish type-psycho like Thomas Hamilton,wouldn't of had any problems-anyway.

    By the way,I am fed up of these ridiculous bans and that seeing as these haven't solved crime,calls for them to be scrapped and for things to go back to normal.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     
  14. SDC

    SDC Member

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    The raw data can be found at http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm , but I saw the original comparison on a page that I can't find anymore (the numbers "stuck" with me just because it's such a drastic difference between the two).

    Oops, I just "snoped" myself; the ACTUAL difference according to Snopes is 4.1 to 6.5 ( http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp). Nonetheless, this shows that the idea of "more guns equals more murders" isn't valid, any more than the idea of "more arms and legs equals more murders by beating and kicking" is.
     
  15. Iain

    Iain Member

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    The UK gun ban = more crime is a discussion that we've had many times. It probably bears repeating that the pre-'97 or '89 UK bore no relation to the US in terms of the amount of gun owners. There is something like at least one firearm per adult in the US, don't think that was the case in the UK.

    Don't know whether firearms have no impact on crime, but I do think that example of the UK doesn't really prove much of anything either way. Violent crime has risen in the UK, although crime is down overall, but you'll be looking for factors such as thefabulousfink raised rather than any simplistic 'more guns, less crime' explanation which doesn't really fit what has happened here.

    I'd go so far as to say that using that explanation for the UK is no more accurate than the oft-cited 'more guns, more crime' thesis thrown around by some when discussing US school shootings.
     
  16. #shooter

    #shooter Member

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    SDC- I wonder if the higher rate of crime in dem/urban areas is truly a result of poverty or is it proximity. Perhaps there are a finite number of humans that can fit per square mile and overcrowding leads to violence. We do this with animals’ maybe it applies to people as well. Just a thought.
     
  17. SDC

    SDC Member

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    I have my doubts that it's simply density; the Northwest Territories in Canada have a murder rate higher than any US state, despite being one of the least densely-populated regions on the planet, PLUS they're still subject to all of the other much-ballyhooed Canadian gun control scheme. The problem comes when you try to factor this issue out, since the vast majority of the NWT's population is aboriginal/Native Indian, a group that forms only 3% of the Canadian population, but commits ~20% of all Canadian murders each year.
     
  18. jlbraun

    jlbraun Member

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    I have heard that the private citizens of the USA own 65% of the WORLD's firearms, including all of the guns in all of the world's armies. The numbers I heard were 400 million guns in the world, of which 165 million are in the hands of US citizens.
     
  19. Thefabulousfink

    Thefabulousfink Member

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    Wacki, sorry that was kind of an emotional response and then I logged off to go do house work. I just get tired of our side using the "More Guns=Less Crime" argument because it is leaving ourselves open to "if less guns= less crime then gun control would be OK." Every time we put up data on places like Florida where the crime rate droped after CCW was allowed, the Anti's and the MSM publish tons of conflicting data (often manipulated) that confuses the sheeple.

    Having the ability to carry a gun is a good thing and allows you to defend yourself against BGs. However, simply handing a gun to everyone in Compton or WA D.C. will not lower the crime rate. Safe gun ownership requires responsibilty and simply holding a gun does not grant it (if it did Gang members would be respected civic leaders). Look at some of the middle-eastern and central African nations where most adult males own guns; rape, murder, and inter-tribe violence is commonplace. In contrast you have nations like Switzerland and the Nordic countries which have realatively low crime rates. Their obviously have to be other factors than gun ownership.

    From the list provided in the link:
    #6 Mexico 0.130213 per 1,000 people Lots of GC, Lots of Crime
    #24 United States 0.042802 per 1,000 people Moderate GC, Moderate-high crime
    #43 Australia 0.0150324 per 1,000 people Lots of GC, Moderate Crime
    #46 United Kingdom 0.0140633 per 1,000 people Lots of GC, Moderate Crime
    #60 Japan 0.00499933 per 1,000 people Lots of GC, Low Crime

    See, it all depends on which data you select. You could make a case for either more GC or less GC and, unless the public had access to the data they wouldn't know who to trust. So when Anti's claim that we need more GC to reduce crime, instead of firing back with statistics that might confuse the public and force them to vote on emotion, why offer other solutions that have been proven to reduce crime.

    I am not going to look up data on all the social issuse that I listed, but here is the unemployment rates of the nations listed above.
    http://www.bartleby.com/151/fields/72.html

    Mexico urban - 3% plus considerable underemployment (2002)
    United States 5.8% (2002)
    United Kingdom 5.2% (2002 est.)
    Australia 6.3% (2002)
    Japan 5.4% (2002)

    The fact is that their is no one "magic pill" to reduce crime and rates rise and fall due to a large amount of stimuli. What we as gun owners need to do is shift the discusion to social issues and away from infringing on people's rights. If we don't then some day a "Slick Willie" is going to pour out a lot of edited data and emotional arguments to pass AWB II before we can get their with counter data.
     
  20. AKAMac

    AKAMac Member

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  21. hvengel

    hvengel Member

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    There are various estimates of the number of privately held guns in the US. Some of which are owned by non-citizens by the way since citizenship is not required to own a gun in the US. The lowest one I have seen is 200 million and some estimates go as high as 280 million. The actual number is likely about in the middle some where at around 240 million. Your numbers would have put the % of guns held by US residents at about 41% of the world total (assuming that the 400 million number is correct). 240 million would be 60% and 280 would be 70% of 400 million. So the 65% number could be in the right ball park again assuming that the world total is 400 million. Do you have a source for the 400 million figure?
     
  22. hvengel

    hvengel Member

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    Also interesting is that the US is #8 in for murders with a firearm and #24 for all homicides http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita#rest . Mexico's murder rate is 4 times higher than the US and they have strict gun control. Colombia's muder rate is almost 14.5 times as high as the US. Even industrialized Russia has a murder rate that is 4.6 times that of the US. So much for the US having exeptionally high murder rates as claimed by the gun controlers.
     
  23. Ieyasu

    Ieyasu Member

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  24. Zen21Tao

    Zen21Tao Member

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    (1) Low murder rate/many guns
    (2) High murder rate/few guns

    To be honest, this isn’t enough information to attempt to use statistical inference to infer causality. To do so you would need to compare four conditions. In addition to the two above you would need:

    (3) Low murder rate/few guns and
    (4) High murder rate/many guns.

    Even then, the best you can hope for is a correlation. The problem with correlation is that you have no way of knowing whether one condition the other or whether some unknown variable caused both conditions. Also, bear in mind that such a broad correctional study is going to be made without taking many cultural, geographical, social, educational, other differences between nations into consideration.


    Personally, I think the best quantifiable argument for gun ownership is a direct comparison between the (much greater) numbers of gun uses for self defense and the (much less) number of gun uses to commit crimes.
     
  25. wacki

    wacki Member

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    That wasn't my goal. My goal was to poke holes in other peoples arguments.
     
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