Current status of the firearms/ammo market?

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Scout21

Scout21

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How is the market in everyone's area nowadays? Anything in particular selling well/not selling at all?

It seems to have slowed considerably on ammo and quite a bit on firearms here. A lot of online listings are having to drop prices to move firearms. AR style firearms are back to a dime a dozen. Lots of sales on 5.56 and 9mm around here. This surprises me due to the election coming up in the not too distant future. I've been considering posting up a few guns I haven't touched in a while, but it doesn't seem like a great time to do so.
 
In central IL my guess is that the market must be down. Four of the big players not big box stores (plus one box store) have closed down in the past few years. I knew several of the owner/operators personally and worked for one for ten years part time. Governor's oppressive laws (duplicitous state dealer licensing and AWB) contributed to three for sure.
A lot of things we here would buy are verboten to have just for having features like hi cap mag, threaded barrel, or "the look".
Are other deep blue state residents seeing the same?
There are at least three guns I would have bought last year if I could.
 
I was just at a local store yesterday picking up some dies I was holding off on because they were 20% off. I noticed powder, primers, and bullets were also 10% off. Loaded ammo has fewer sales but still some sales were to be had. Firearms seem to be staying of shelves for extended periods of time except the few revolvers I'm looking for, go figure.
 
I keep hearing that the market for firearms and ammo is slow. That may well be the case, but understanding the mechanism is important.
First, there could be some misreading of the data here. The market might feel slow compared to the last three years of insanity, but that doesn't make it slow relative to longer historical periods. Ammo prices have seemingly fallen and stabilized to a "new normal" which no doubt reflects inflation more than anything else. If the market were continually weakening we would expect prices to continue falling and we mostly aren't seeing that (at least in the data that is more methodical and not anecdotal).
Second, if the market is indeed weakening there must be a reason. The most obvious one would be saturation and finally reaching a point on the demand curve where costs prevent prices from falling any further in the long run. Everyone who wants to buy at these prices is satiated and those who would buy more at a lower price cannot because long run prices cannot go below cost.
There may be some broader economic weakness driving a slow firearms market, the consumer is still being affected by inflation and the housing market. But given unemployment is low and the financial markets near all time highs I'm inclined to think the firearms market situation is reflective of actual factors in that market more than macro environmental factors.
I don't think the reality of November has hit people yet, and I expect the market to warm some as we get closer. Obviously a good outcome would tame the market further, a bad one might set off a major buying rush.
 
Just got this via e-mail for a gun show coming to town. Plan to stop by and pick up 1K 9mm. That will last me the rest of my life as I don’t shoot it hardly. Also plan to grab 1 K of .223.

- 22 LR for only $29.95 for Brick (with 500 rounds)
- 45 cal. ACP for only $84.95 for 250 rounds
- 9mm for only $99.95 for 500 rounds
- 2.23 Brass FMJ for only $399.95 for 1,000 rounds
 
What I am seeing in the gun business is an almost desperate pattern of introducing new models.

Firearms are the very Platonic Ideal of durable goods, I have shot century old guns to good effect. The manufacturers have to find new customers or convince the old ones that their stuff is obsolete and they need the latest and greatest.
 
Scout21 said:
How is the market in everyone's area nowadays? Anything in particular selling well/not selling at all?

It seems to have slowed considerably on ammo and quite a bit on firearms here. A lot of online listings are having to drop prices to move firearms. AR style firearms are back to a dime a dozen. Lots of sales on 5.56 and 9mm around here. This surprises me due to the election coming up in the not too distant future. I've been considering posting up a few guns I haven't touched in a while, but it doesn't seem like a great time to do so.
Click to expand...
Stores around here are well stocked and everything is expensive. Powder is $50-$60 a pound. Buying seems to have slowed down. I went most of the Summer up until now not finding hardly any brass around the local shooting spots.
 
Jim Watson said:
What I am seeing in the gun business is an almost desperate pattern of introducing new models.

Firearms are the very Platonic Ideal of durable goods, I have shot century old guns to good effect. The manufacturers have to find new customers or convince the old ones that their stuff is obsolete and they need the latest and greatest.
Click to expand...
Yep, a quality modern gun should last 40 years or longer with basic care and maintenance. Gun manufacturers can't survive on selling one, maybe two guns per customer lifetime.

Their life blood is marketing to enthusiasts who own dozen or more and are all too happy to add to or upgrade their collection to include the latest trend in materials or tactical farkles.
 
Will Munny said:
I keep hearing that the market for firearms and ammo is slow. That may well be the case, but understanding the mechanism is important.
First, there could be some misreading of the data here. The market might feel slow compared to the last three years of insanity, but that doesn't make it slow relative to longer historical periods.
Click to expand...

Prior to the erratic disruptions a few years ago, sales were always way down in the summer. People are spending their cash on summer stuff, which for most people is food, travel, remodeling, etc. After labor day it'll start to tic up again as we close in on holidays and hunting seasons. Right now the only thing 'in season' are clay birdies. I know a few FFLs with shops, and frankly, I'm not sure how they keep the lights on through the summer some years.

It's easy to forget, but prior to the madness, sales were bad and had been for a long time. Companies were folding, and ammo was at historical lows because it was just gathering dust in warehouses and stockrooms.
 
It's all over the place, really.
In the Firearms market, it's something of a Golden Age to where nearly everything imaginable is available (ok, maybe not so much in affordable lever guns).
In handguns there's near-nigh every possible combo if a person wants such a thing. (Ok, not so much if you are keen on an LCP in 44mag)

Now, as to product sales in the brick-n-mortar, that's not a simple formula, either. Firstly, it's summer, a traditionally slow time of year. Secondly, it's a political season, which pitches predictability in the bin. Thirdly, the specter of inflation is very real. That $15 box of ammo which has a $19 price tag on it can take a person back a bit. especially when a bundle of green onions is a buck, and bell peppers are more than a buck-and-a-half each. And most of us eat more often than shoot.

This makes thing complicated to judge/observe.

Given the number of restaurant chains and chain retailers in bankruptcy, the fact that we are not seeing similar problems in the "gun industry" may be a good sign.

Maybe

Perhaps
 
In checking "AmmoSeek" just now, the cheapest .22LR is Rem. Goldens (solids) for $3.70/100 ($0.37/rd.).
The 9x19 Parabellum/Luger in Win. 115 gr. FMJ is $12.49/100.
.38 Specials REMANS are $13.99/50 using 158 gr. FP.
.357 are "steel-cased" surplus in 158 gr. FMJ for #17.99/50.
 
I'm seeing things getting almost imperceptibly "better" price wise. I hate to use the word better. Maybe the way to say it is somewhat "less worse."

I'll use an illustration. Imagine becoming enslaved, hands and feet shackled. When the shackles are removed from your ankles you might say things are better. When the chains are removed from your wrists, you might say things are really looking up. Problem is you're still enslaved. Things were initially so bad that any relief feels like a great improvement.

That's about where we're at with guns, ammo, and gun related accessories. Prices are pornographic! Gas and grocery prices aren't any better. That being said, I do agree with those who believe things will really get better in time. How much time is the question. I also believe a great many hoarders will start unloading their stashes for pennies on the dollar they paid for it.

I've seen that happen twice in my lifetime already, with guns and ammo in particular. As we speak, the scalpers and pirates that helped create the big buying panic have booty that is depreciating in value. They have to unload it at some point. We'll be happily swimming in it when the time comes.
 
Anything more than .20 per round for 9mm is a rip-off. Sites/stores having "sales" where it's $.24 a round are either 1.) being held to the fire by middle-men/distributors or 2.) just blatantly and shamelessly ripping you off.

Paying retail prices for all of the components, which are STILL outlandishly priced, the average gun owner can reload a 9mm shell for .16 a round. (maybe some of you can do it for less?) Even cheaper if you have some old range-scrounged brass. And that's because of the ridiculous price of primers. Back in the day no one would bother reloading 9mm because there were warehouses around the world full of surplus ammo that could be had at gun shows for $7 a box (per 50).

There's still a continent full of car wheel weights to be melted down. There's surplus once fired brass all over the world (not counting rare revolver cartridges). Powder does NOT that cost that much to produce.

What will it take to make the manufacturer's, and more especially, their distributors realize this?

A Ruger 10/22 used to be a $150 gun (at best). It hasn't changed. It hasn't gotten any better. A plastic Canik striker fired 9mm was a $200 gun. A Remington 870 Express cost me $210 out the door and I don't see how the engineering or the materials have exponentially improved to keep up with the modern prices.

I think it's time for a buyers referendum. WE start setting the price by just NOT buying anything until the market, the CEOS, the middle-men, and unfortunately then LGS at then end of the food chain start tightening up their belts the same way we the consumers have had to for the past (pick a number) of years.
 
Archym said:
A Ruger 10/22 used to be a $150 gun (at best). It hasn't changed. It hasn't gotten any better. A plastic Canik striker fired 9mm was a $200 gun. A Remington 870 Express cost me $210 out the door and I don't see how the engineering or the materials have exponentially improved to keep up with the modern prices.
Click to expand...

Has the engineering/materials in your groceries changed to justify their price increase? I cannot think of much in our day to day lives that hasnt increased exponentially in the last few years.
 
Like I said before, go to the Shooting Industry - https://shootingindustry.com/

They have professional level analysis of current pricing structures in this issue. The balance between price and volume is quite interesting.
 
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