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Don't plan for them to run

Discussion in 'Strategies, Tactics, and Training' started by mbt2001, Jan 26, 2015.

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  1. Fred Fuller

    Fred Fuller Moderator Emeritus

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    I recall one trainer (maybe he's a member of THR, I don't recall) that has had 60 students that have won gunfights

    Tom Givens, at Rangemaster.

    Yet any number of trainers have had students involved in gunfights, if they've been in the business long enough. Tom has deliberately kept a database, for AAR purposes, and that's where a certain amount of his adaptation to student experience in his training comes from. It can be argued whether or not his is a valid approach, pretty much as anything at all can and will be argued. I tend to believe it is a valid approach, YMMV. Some will say he does it only for advertising hype. I don't know Tom that well, but personally I believe such a thing would be beneath him. Again, YMMV.

    My own favorite trainer was Louis Awerbuck. Louis used to say something to the effect that he wouldn't be with us at our gunfight, if we ever had one, that the responsibility would all be on our own shoulders. I always disagreed to some extent. I feel reasonably sure that if my moment ever comes, Louis will be there if only in spirit, tugging at my elbow and yelling in my ear.*

    I know one Special Forces soldier who attributed his survival in a tight spot to the training he received at a then-classified facility on Ft. Bragg, and in recounting the story he repeated a phrase I had heard myself from the man who trained him - "GET BACK IN THE FIGHT!"

    To all here: if your moment ever comes, what voice will be heard in your mind's ear, and what will it be saying?

    *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szaJ1QhafjI
    What I had in mind to post was the first video, the flat range shotgun drill - turns out that link is to an autoplay series. Watch as much as you want...
     
  2. MedWheeler

    MedWheeler Member

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    I think the thread is drifting from its original subject of dealing with the resolve and persistence of attackers to one of training and marksmanship under stress.
    Though that does factor in when dealing with that criminal resolve, I hope the voice in my ear is the one I've heard before shouting "Front sight! Front sight!"

    It's too easy at times to be focusing on the target when firing at it instead of whether or not your weapon's front sight is actually on it.
     
  3. mbt2001

    mbt2001 Member

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    One of the reasons I posted this is because of the idea that many have, for the most part I am included in this, that the badguys will run once rounds start popping off in their direction. Certainly once the badguys know that the homeowner is armed the dynamic of the gunfight changes and since most of the badguys are narcissists, they run.

    It used to be the case that most of the homeowners, most of those on this board and many of those that are not on this board were experienced hunters, and/or had military, police, or other practical shooting experience. They knew to hold their fire, to tamp down "excitement", cover and concealment, to focus on clean sight pictures and accurate shooting. Hunting, military, and other shooting experience tends to breed this kind of tactic.

    Conversely the badguys had little to none of this experience. Perhaps they had shot a gun, but as far as hunting/military/other training they had none. Also, the badguys tended to have cheaper guns and equipment, i.e. Lorcins vs Glocks. That seems to be LESS the case now than before.

    I do not know if the badguys are changing, but they certainly seem more willing to engage in gunfights these days than the have over the past 20 or so years. We have read and seen stories of badguys that ambush police and so forth. Of course in this case, I do not know the whole story, but I used it as an example.

    Typically, I do not trust auto's for home defense, so I have revolvers used for that purpose. I have, perhaps 5 handguns and 1 shotgun stashed around the house. The bedroom has 2 revolvers and the shotgun. For me to get to the round count talked about here I would have to burn through most of those guns. Now remember this, there is a good chance that every gun you shoot is going to be entered into evidence. That means that, in my case I am down 5 - 6 guns. Thank God I have more guns, but how many can say that? In this case the assailants got away. So they could come back.

    The OVER-ARCHING point is that things are changing out there. God forbid we have another economic problem or some other kind of emergency...
     
  4. Sam1911

    Sam1911 Moderator Emeritus

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    One theme we've explored here from time to time is that criminals frequently come from a very violent life, and have grown up with and experienced injury, brutality, and killings a lot more than your average homeowner and "good citizen." There are plenty of criminals who have more than a few gunshot and knife scars, and don't find weapons necessarily all that terrifying. Further, so many criminals spend repeated stints in prison and they learn from and teach others. Just as soldiers learn not to flinch at the rounds that miss, and not to flee from a fight, so do the harder species of criminals.

    I don't know to what degree I'd believe that's increasing these days, more than previous years, but it is a real factor.
     
  5. Fred Fuller

    Fred Fuller Moderator Emeritus

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    Conversely the badguys had little to none of this experience.

    Well ... that's a comforting thing to think, anyway. But the problem is, it lulls people into a false sense of security - even worse than the "Oh, this is a good neighborhood" fallacy. But LOTS of badguys have LOTS of experience. Chances are, if you point a gun at one of those, it won't be the first time. If you shoot at him, that won't be the first time either. And lots of the carry scars from blades or bullets.

    And that's just what we generally regard as the 'thug class.' I personally know of one case where the "badguy" was a genuine, real deal, Tier One operator. Not naming names here, and anyone else who knows that story had better not post it, either.

    The odds of running into that sort of thing are definitely slim - but I KNOW this one happened. This wasn't a 'read about it in the paper' thing for me, it was first hand.

    And no, I have no hope of ever being that good. My physical limitations etc. rule that out. Doesn't mean I don't train and practice though.

    And that's why I always say - it isn't the ODDS that matter. It's the STAKES.
     
  6. Mainsail

    Mainsail Member

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    The story you linked doesn't present that they didn't run once the rounds started popping. The way I read it they ran, then peppered the front of his house with everything they had before they drove off. Either way, we have very few details.

    Regardless of what we believe, we prepare for worst-case. I am still convinced that the bad guys will flee when the barrel pointed in their direction begins flashing, however I prepare for the .01% that are whacked beyond all normal human cognitive thought.

    Just because we may value the life of a robber or rapist far lower than tax paying plumber or clerk, does not mean they do. The sense of self preservation is pretty universal except in very rare cases as mentioned above. The person doing bad stuff will still weight the risks vs the rewards. That's why moving into an apartment is scary- you never know what the previous tenants were doing in there.

    EDIT to add: Your thread title "Don't plan for them to run" says it all. I don't plan for them to run, but I believe they will.
     
  7. TestPilot

    TestPilot Member

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    When prepared for those who don't run, the problem with those who do run is taken care of.

    Some run. Some come at you swinging a knife or a bat when you have a shotgun pointed at them. Some still come at you after being shot.
     
  8. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Well, of course, they may run....

    if they are aware that the shots were yours and not those of their accomplice, as in the case one of the incidents related in Lessons from the Street; and

    if they conclude at the time, quickly and under stress, that running will afford them a better chance for survival and escape than continuing an attack to take you out and take your car and money.

    Will they believe that you all not shoot if they run? Will they think it possible to outrun bullets? Can they get far enough away without your car?
     
  9. RetiredUSNChief

    RetiredUSNChief Member

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    The thread is aptly titled, in my opinion.

    There is ONLY one thing you CAN plan on when it comes to being attacked by a bad guy...and that's YOUR OWN ACTIONS. You cannot plan, or count, on the bad guy's actions. So people need to shift out of that paradigm and take charge of the things they can affect.

    The goal of any self-defense action in the civilian community is to stop the attack.

    To that end, you don't plan on the BAD GUY stopping the attack...because you are not in control of his acts. You plan on applying whatever means YOU have control of in order to MAKE the bad guy stop.

    - If your situational awareness is readily apparent to the bad guy and the bad guy decides not to attack...then YOU have stopped the bad guy.

    - If the bad guy attacks and your assuming a defensive posture of some kind (with or without a weapon) results in the bad guy stopping...then YOU have stopped the bad guy.

    - If the bad guy attacks and you shoot and miss and he runs away...then YOU have stopped the bad guy.

    - If the bad guy attacks and you shoot and wound him and he stops/runs away...then YOU have stopped the bad guy.

    - If the bad guy attacks and you kill him...then YOU have stopped the bad guy.


    BUT, the moment you shift your beliefs to allow for an EXPECTATION that the bad guy will or may stop as a result of something you may do...then your paradigm has shifted to something that is out of your personal control.

    You apply whatever means are at your disposal UNTIL the bad guy stops.


    Depending on the bad guy to act in any particular was is EXACTLY one reason why most, if not all, of us here listened in disbelief to Vice President Biden's advice to "fire two blasts" of a shotgun to scare off a bad guy. (Not to mention the illegality of that particular act in the first place.)
     
  10. strambo

    strambo Member

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    Good post Chief. I always plan to have to injure them until they are no longer functional...no longer a threat. Anything less than that is both a bonus, and also out of my control.

    Along similar lines, I don't ever assume to know their motivations or try to predict how they will or won't react. I don't control their thoughts, actions, decisions. When they ask for my wallet...maybe that is all they really want, and when I give it to them (I would if I felt it the best option at the moment), maybe they will take it and leave. Or, maybe they will then try to shoot or stab me anyway. This seems illogical to most people, why would they do that?

    Maybe they never wanted the wallet, maybe it was a gang initiation and they only asked for the wallet to throw the victim off guard, or maybe they didn't know what else to say or have the stones to just walk up and whack someone without any preamble, maybe it's payback for Ferguson.

    In any case, I never actually believe, or disbelieve, the words people say. I am aware of what they are saying and in tune to their body language and the totality of the situation. I know they may have alterior motives and may get violent at any moment and for any reason, so until the threat has physically passed (they are too far away to possibly harm me) I'm ready no matter what they say or do.

    Now, the home invasion in the OP is pretty clear-cut, WHAM! they busted the door and have guns. Situations on the street are much more fluid and it is hard to tell real threats from not and they can change moment to moment. Correct response with subject A, may be the wrong response with subject B. Correct response in the first moments may be the wrong response halfway in...

    Having lots of training and confidence helps free you to see things more clearly and not be either too fearful to react properly or too hopeful and believing in their bluffs because if you don't have any skill in defending yourself, you will desperately want to believe anything they say or do that makes you think they won't hurt you. Classic confirmation bias.

    I try to be totally neutral in tense situations, like when I worked security and was being paid either way. I'd like it to go nicely, but if it doesn't, I'm prepared for that too. I don't control them, so it's their call...with the understanding I'm using words and body language to diffuse the situation (remember, everyone has a cell camera).

    Thugs seem to react well to someone who is alert to them, but gives the air of not really caring. Not insulting them or getting worked up, so they don't have to save face. Not cowering so they don't sense blood in the water. Not concerned, so their survival instinct tells them ("I am not the droid you seek.") ;)
     
  11. GLOOB

    GLOOB Member

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    You certainly don't have to hit your assailant for a handgun to be effective. The thing about accuracy, the closer you get the more accurate you are. When someone starts shooting at me, I don't care how bad a shot they are. I'm going to go the other direction, lol.
     
  12. Phaedrus/69

    Phaedrus/69 Member

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    No matter how we look at it, the OP makes a great point. I do think some people's home defense plan is pretty much "buy a gun" and "put up some alarm signs" and call it a day. The old gun-as-talisman thinking. If you do think of a gun as a magic charm that will scare away trouble and you can't imagine actually shooting someone, then you should keep the gun locked up or sell the darn thing. If you produce a gun you don't intend to use and the home invader calls your bluff your situation just became much worse. He or she probably doesn't know you won't shoot, and they will probably have less moral qualms about using theirs.
     
  13. lemaymiami

    lemaymiami Member

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    I've been on the scene of a few "high round count" incidents years ago -a few of them when rounds were being exchanged as opposed to entirely one-sided.... My general take on the back and forth with multiple rounds fired is that most were in the heat of passion (0n one side or the other...) or simply blind panic. I'm aware of more than one officer involved incident where the fine officer literally shot his sidearm dry in full panic mode -without hitting a person (even at very close range). With training and discipline that "spray and pray" response will be reduced but blind panic is still a problem in a sudden confrontation where the shooter is lucky to clear his/her weapon and bring it into play without shooting themselves in the process...

    My only recommendation is that realistic practice sessions with heavy emphasis on controlled fire and round counting is a real benefit for any armed citizen. Most will go their entire lives without an armed encounter and can never be sure how they'll react when the balloon goes up. Training and practice are your best hope to prepare for the unthinkable.

    By the way, just listening to the gunfire in a fight will give you a pretty good idea which side has the skill and training....
     
  14. 45223

    45223 Member

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    Amen.

    Maybe it was dark, and everyone was panicking.
     
  15. skoro

    skoro Member

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    If they don't, that's what follow-up shots are for.
     
  16. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

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    Watch the pawn shop video on Youtube where the perps stand for a while in the shop looking at guns.

    Suddenly they pull their personal handguns and fire at the staff as the two male employees hit the floor, belly down.
    The male staff could not pull their handguns from their pockets.

    Meanwhile, the female employee stays on her feet and trades shots with the thugs, somehow survives at close range.
     
  17. mbt2001

    mbt2001 Member

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    A buddy of mine and his partner were serving a warrant on the house of this deranged geezer. It was a trailer home, so the patio was built up. Long story short one of the cops knocked on the door, the other was off to the side, down and away from the door, maybe 10 feet or so. The geezer opened the door with a pistol and started bringing the pistol to bear on the officer at the door. After 17+ shots traded, no one was hit and the geezer was taken in.
     
  18. 45_auto

    45_auto Member

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    So the FBI is lying in their annual violent crime report? Do you have some additional data that no one else is aware of?

    http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc...olent-crime-topic-page/violentcrimemain_final

     
  19. X-Rap

    X-Rap Member

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    A friend of mine says he put it this way to his daughters. There are very bad people out there and there is mathematical ratio given the time and place in which they are found. It may be 1:100 or 1:1,000 but consider how many people you come in fairly close proximity to on a daily basis. The bad guys aren't on a constant terror but they are out there among us in substantial numbers so it pays to at least keep that in the back of your head because they are all creatures of opportunity, it's best to not give them that.
     
  20. Fred Fuller

    Fred Fuller Moderator Emeritus

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    2013 estimated violent crime total was 12.3 percent below the 2009 level and 14.5 percent below the 2004 level.

    So does this mean if the odds come up for you, that you will be 12.3/14.5% less robbed, injured or dead as a result of the attack?

    Again - it isn't the ODDS. It's the STAKES that matter. To me, at any rate. YMMV.
     
  21. rbernie
    • Contributing Member

    rbernie Contributing Member

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    Risk management is always concerned with the dimensions of probability and consequence. The probability may be low but if the consequence is potentially severe, then the risk probably bears avoiding if possible and mitigating if realized.
     
  22. Kleanbore

    Kleanbore Moderator Staff Member

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    Yes, the severity of the potential consequences figure into the decision.

    But there are numerous variables that come into play. An apparent decline in overall crime stats tells us nothing about trends regarding whether violent criminals may have become more or less mobile, and are targeting victims farther away.
     
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