FBI STATS 380 vs 9mm vs 357 vs 40 vs 45

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How is the FBI collecting data on how long it took someone to stop? Gunfights with stopwatches? I'm curious about this methodology-

Larry
 
According to the paper on the link, from what I remember reading it they admit that they cannot collect enough appropriate data for a formal evaluation, so they resort to ballistics gel to tell them what they think is important, mainly that the bullet can penetrate far enough to reach the heart when fired from any likely angle. If you shoot someone through their foot in an attempt to reach their heart you will fail, even with most rifles and fmj ammo.

Aparently they try to determine how long it will take for blood pressure to drop after being hit in a vital area, heart, lungs, major arteries, etc. Bigger bullets and more holes also allow for more blood to flow.
 
I have always thought of the 380 to be a better pocket gun caliber then the 32 ACP or the 25 ACP. More mass, more kenetic energy, and a larger caliber, I don't think anyone would argue that point. Now a 9mm vs a 380 in a pocket gun is a bit more of a matchup, Kal-Tech makes a compact 12 oz 9mm and an even smaller 8oz 380. For full frame guns the 9mm would be the obvious choice.
 
I was given a copy of Handgun Wounding Factors and Effectiveness, by SA Patrick, back when it was still a new document and I was in a firearms instructor class where the FBI participated. It's still a good read.

This later document, One-Shot Drops Surviving the Myth, by Anthony J. Pinizzotto, Ph.D., Harry A Kern, M.Ed., and Edward F. Davis, M.S. is also interesting: http://www.rrmemphis.com/myth.pdf

The alleged goat-roping tests have never been publicly confirmed, and as I recall, at least one government agency reportedly invested some effort in attempting to confirm whether they had actually occurred, without success. Other folks seem to prefer to postulate that these were "secret tests" which had to remain hidden due to various concerns and interests. They may as well have been conducted at the same time as the alleged saucer recovery in Roswell.
 
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A friend of a friend had to shoot a drunk guy breaking into his house looking to vote 4 times and he was still able to jump ontop and knock down the guy before dying. It was a .380.
 
If a person can shoot a .380 accurately, then they will have no trouble shooting a 9mm Para accurately.
And since there are plenty of small 9mm handguns around, many just as small as the typical .380 handgun, there's really no good reason to carry a .380 pistol.

You can add to that the same discussion about the 9mm vs. the .45 ACP. While there have been no duty .380 cal weapons used by the Police, many, such as the Indiana State Police, issued Beretta Model 84s as "off-duty" guns. Most other PDs also allow at least some .380 ACP weapons for "off duty" carry. Then again, the Germans used the .380 and .32 ACP for police DUTY use, along with much of Europe, into the 1970s, without complaint. The Italians used the .380 ACP Beretta Model 1934 in .380 ACP for their Army issue pistol, and the .32 ACP for the Navy. While they didn't do too well against the Allies, they seemed to work pretty well against the Ethiopians.

It's always amusing to watch how the bigger is better theorum always seems to stop at the posters favorite cartridge.
 
"Per Massad Ayoob: It is impossible to quantify stopping power" :) I'm smiling because it sure took the "experts" a long time to accept that. I always thought it was an exercise in futility because there are just too many variables.
 
I carry a .45 ACP, but tend to reccomend to 9mm as "big enough." A friend of mine has a .22 lr and a pellet gun. Told him to get some velocitors for the .22, just to be on the safe side :)
 
post #23 is worth reading twice or thrice

If feel better w/ bigger, go bigger; if 380acp is too girly for you, don't carry one, nobody ever said different
All "threats" are not created equal and gun forum folk will never agree on what defensive vs. offensive mindset is

As for some of us who are confident enough to be comfortable with 380acp, be happy it's me/we, not you. But I never could fully relate to those who are hardcore about bigger is better, and tout such as compact 9s over 380s for CCW. "Everybody" agrees that where you throw those rounds far outweighs everything else, and when it comes to that, nothing beats justified confidence in how well you can shoot what you carry.

Always makes me wonder a little bit why the anti-380 folks who go with 9s don't go with 40s, why the 40s folks don't go with 45s, why the 45 guys don't go with 454 Casul or 480 or 500... if bigger is what counts, and your life threatening threat assessment is that high, why NOT go bigger ? Carry comfort too important to go go big ?

Betting on one shot out of any handgun to instantly kill is a fool's bet, including Dirty Harry 44 mag (special). Those stop "studies" just really don't mean all that much real world. Real world civilian SD shootings result in a one shot "stop" reasonably often, no matter the caliber (not nearly so often as no shot "stops"), but very infrequently result in QUICK one shot kills or adeqate physical incapacitation, even if BG stumbles off and bleeds out elsewhere. You don't ever want to go up against drug crazed 300# machete man at 7 yards and closing fast with any handgun caliber; easy 90%+ odds they will put your head in a small plastic bag after, even if they need a full size body bag for him. True CNS hits that quick are as much a matter of luck as skill in that wild eyed scenario.

"Shootability" counts more than caliber... or as someone here might say, practice, practice, practice... and do it with something you are prone to shoot naturally well to begin with. Don't anger Mafia bosses and leave ol' Grizz alone.
I also suspect too many think 380s come only in LCP sizes, and/or "full size" 380s are big-n-bulky; not so, but they sure can be highly shootable. YSMV

Having said all that, sure they do make "bigger", but....
it's tuff to beat 357 in a revolver or 45 acp in an autoloader
(preferably full size ones)
always was, still is, no big mystery about it
 
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Then again, the Germans used the .380 and .32 ACP for police DUTY use, along with much of Europe, into the 1970s, without complaint. The Italians used the .380 ACP Beretta Model 1934 in .380 ACP for their Army issue pistol, and the .32 ACP for the Navy.
Clearly the Germans and Italians , and much of Europe, were not satisfied with the .380 or the .32, because none are carrying those calibers today.
 
Always makes me wonder a little bit why the anti-380 folks who go with 9s don't go with 40s, why the 40s folks don't go with 45s, why the 45 guys don't go with 454 Casul or 480 or 500... if bigger is what counts, and your life threatening threat assessment is that high, why NOT go bigger ? Carry comfort too important to go go big ?
Why a .40 instead of a .45?

Capacity and gun size.

I love the .45, but you can only get so many .45 rounds in a small handgun.
If you cram a lot of .45 rounds in to a handgun it quickly becomes too large and bulky for concealed carry.
Since I don't believe in "one shot stops" I'm not satisfied with just 6 .45 rounds in the magazine.

Besides, the difference in effectiveness between a .40 and a .45 is practically insignificant.
But the difference in effectiveness between the .380 and the 9mm para is quite significant.
The .380 just isn't a great self-defense caliber.
It's regulated to the "better than nothing" category IMO.
 
The more that I learn about bullets and shooting the more my mind shifts towards the "anything bigger than .20 inches, except don't use a .25ACP ever, for anything, even beer cans, sorry, I'm straying a bit". I like .177 and .22 cal pellets for hunting wabbits, my .22 velociters for any game up to large foxes/small wolves. A wolf torso is similar to a human torso, just turned sideways a bit. My only complaints with a person who uses .22 for SD is handguns and cheap bullets. The .22 handgun IMHO is only really good for two things and self defense isn't one of them.

.32s and .38s and .380s, oldfool, like many I never see them in larger guns with a decent sight radius. My main problem with these nowadays is that they are little, have filed down sights, and there is nowhere for my pinky to go! If I saw a larger .380, then I would probably still go with 9mm. Just sound right and the bullets are cheap, and they make lots of different rounds that have to compete with eachother.

It took me a while and weeks of reading up on the topic, learning more about ballistics (In school we didn't get into to many details when it came to ballistics), how bullets fly, how they react in viscus mediums. Fun stuff. The more I learn the less I care about caliber.
 
I would suggest that this will provide a one shot stop. Pretty quickly too.

Barrett%20M82A1-400.jpg


sorry, couldn't resist it. :)
 
Well, so much for ending the caliber wars.

Reality is you should carry what you are comfortable with or works for you or you like.

Exact figures don't mean much, but all the data published suggests 9mm is plenty good. It does have the single most major jump over any caliber. Still 380 is no slouch.

The group 9mm and on up is so close as to be non issue statistically (yes it can make a difference on the macro level).

Years back we had a gun fight between two troopers and a nut case. Nutcase was filled with something like 4 or 5 .357, and 6 or 8 9mm. The 9mm killed him only because it cut one of the major heart blood vessels (aorta?).

Once you get to a certain point its about shot placement or enough rounds that you get a statistical kill.
 
If you are looking at an SD gun, IMO the most important fact is 'will you carry it?' Because you'll probably need it when you don't expect to and that means you need to carry all the time. If we knew we were going into harms way, most of us would probably choose a rifle.

The carry gun has to be reliable, because if something is likely to go wrong, it will invariably happen at the worst possible moment.

It has to be accurate enough to hit a torso sized target at 20 feet or so and that's all. When the adrenaline is pumping, fine motor control goes right out the window.

Finally, it has to have enough power to make it to something vital or incapacitating. Plan on being able to shoot through a lot of adipose tissue (fat) because we live in an overweight society.

Have enough rounds so that if one, two or three don't do it, you still have options. Five or six is usually enough, but 15 is better. It's well and good to speak of accuracy, but chances are you're rattled, disoriented and possibly injured before the gunfight even starts. Play the odds.

Better a 25 auto in your pocket than a 45 in your gun safe.
 
Like the other thread (9mm vs 40) it is and always will be whatever you shoot best with. Heck I like .40 and the next guy like 9mm and some other person may like .38. Does that mean that only one of us is right in our selection? No. It means we all have our choices based on our selections. Now please back on topic with the tests in the FBI paper.
 
As posted, most 380Auto pistols come with short barrels.

When I look at ballistics data, I take into consideration that most of velocity data come from 4"+ fullsize barrels and not shorter subcompact barrel lengths that most of us carry and will be using for SD. With decreased velocity from shorter barrels, terminal impact is further decreased from published. As many posted, I am in agreement with the importance of shot placement.

Over the years, I got to talk to various SD/PD, EMT and ER staff who dealt with actual gun shot wounds. Shot placement was a critical factor of damaging vascular organs/vessels that led to fatality. For most COM shots, general consensus tended to be that 44Mag/357Mag shootings rarely survive and often are dead on scene or on arrival to ER. 45ACP/40S&W shootings are often fatal depending on the type of bullets used (FMJ vs JHP). 9mm JHP shootings are survivable if transported to ER in time. 9mm/38Spl/380Auto FMJ shootings are often survivable and inflict the least amount of injuries.

For me, 40S&W 155/165 gr JHP is my choice of SD/HD round especially for the short barreled subcompact Glock27.

On pages 11 and 12 of Courtney M and Courtney A PDF, a listing of caliber and bullet data can be found. I pulled a sampling based on caliber, bullet weight, muzzle velocity, muzzle energy and average incapacitation times (AIT). Shot placement and terminal velocity/energy will affect the AIT, but the data for 380Auto JHP near the 9mm FMJ does not give me much confidence.

Caliber: Bullet
- Velocity (fps)
- Energy (ft-lbs)
- Average Incapacitation Times (seconds)
---------------------------------
357Mag: Fed125JHP
- 1442
- 577
- 7.44

40S&W: Win155ST
- 1210
- 504
- 7.86

10mm: Win175ST
- 1267
- 624
- 7.92

45ACP: Rem185JHP+P
- 1124
- 519
- 7.98

10mm: Fed180HS
- 995
- 396
- 8.22

40S&W: Fed180HS
- 991
- 393
- 8.32

45ACP: Fed230HS
- 847
- 366
- 8.40

9mm: Fed115JHP+P+
- 1311
- 439
- 8.90

9mm: Fed124HS+P+
- 1267
- 442
- 8.9

9mm: Fed124HS
- 1126
- 349
- 9.28

9mm: Fed115JHP
- 1175
- 353
- 9.30

9mm: Fed147HS
- 958
- 300
- 9.58

38Spl: Win158LHP+P
- 996
- 348
- 10.76

38Spl: Fed125JHP+P
- 998
- 276
- 10.92

380ACP: Fed90HS
- 1008
- 203
- 10.94

380ACP: Win85ST
- 980 - 181
- 12.88

9mm: Win115FMJ
- 1163 - 345
- 14.40

380ACP: Fed95FMJ
- 934
- 184
- 22.80

38Spl: Fed158RNL
- 708
- 176
- 33.68
 
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I mean really, who compiles these incapacitation times?.....Who's standing around with their stop watch?......Ok he's done - 8.23 seconds.

With that said, what I'm seeing is anywhere from 1-3 seconds difference from 9mm, .40, .45 & 10mm....to a quality .380 & 38spl.

With those numbers, if they're even believable, I'd say the disrespected, deserve a little more respect.....The gap doesn't appear near as big as the rhetoric. :what:
 
bds, could you post a link to where you got those AITs or give some information on how they determined those numbers?
Sure. They came from a paper written by Michael and Amy Courtney of Ballistics Testing Group in January of 2007 (rev Aug 2007). Here's the link to the PDF.

(pages 4-5) The average incapacitation times (AIT) were correlated with the following bullet parameters:

P1: peak pressure wave magnitude determined on the surface of a 1” diameter cylinder centered on the wound channel.
E: Kinetic energy of the bullet.
TSC: Temporary stretch cavity volume.
V: Bullet velocity.
MV: Bullet momentum (mass times velocity).
VPCC: Permanent crush cavity volume estimated via FBI method.
VPCC : Truncated permanent crush cavity volume estimated via FBI method truncated at 12” of penetration.
APCC: Permanent crush cavity surface area estimated via FBI method.
APCC : Permanent surface area estimated via FBI method truncated at 12” of penetration.

These results show that AIT correlates most strongly with peak pressure wave magnitude, but also shows significant correlation with energy, velocity, and temporary cavity volume.

Here a link to other papers they wrote on ballistics - http://arxiv.org/find/all/1/all:+AND+courtney+AND+amy+AND+michael+courtney/0/1/0/all/0/1
 
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In regard to the papers authored by the Courtneys, a couple Pearls of Wisdom
Shawn, most of us who lack the first hand experience of effects of shootings must derive our information from others. Isn't that why we often ask for first hand range reports? :D

Yeah, I agree that some of their stuff is "out there" and many have disagreed or challenged their findings. What I do find in their papers and data is a confirmation of what many of us already know.

- Magnum velocity pistol bullets do a lot of damage.
- Higher muzzle velocity/energy translates to higher terminal velocity/energy.

I am just glad that somebody is doing some newer ballistics research for us to benefit from. Michael and Amy are graduates from MIT and Harvard. I gotta admit that they probably bring more to ballistics testing than I can muster. Who knows, they just might find something new we didn't know about. For me, like cancer research, more information we have the better. :D
 
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