Megistopoda
Member
Long post, but please hear me out.
There has been a lot of talk about McCain...how he's not conservative enough for the "core", how he's not 2A friendly enough, etc. That might all be true. But some have even claimed that there is no difference between Obama/McCain/Clinton. That is not only untrue, but a dangerous spread of misinformation - lest someone who doesn't know any better believe it.
You see, there is another consideration here - a big consideration - and that is Supreme Court nominations made by the president. This is, unfortunately, becoming more and more true as the court gains more and more influence politically. Sometimes even unpopular and "lame-duck" presidents leave a strong and influential legacy behind in the courts. Think what you will of GW Bush, but two men will be his main legacy...Samuel Alito and John Roberts. No big deal? Without just those two (given a Gore and/or Kerry presidency we would NOT have them), it's very possible that the court would rule this June that the 2A does NOT protect an individual right to keep and bear firearms. And then....OMG....the gun ban bills would fly like dust in west Texas.
No one really knows when a Supreme Court justice will be replaced. They are "life" appointments but often step down for health or mental reasons, etc. before the end of their lives. I am not sure about all the details and dynamics, but that's the general jist. This court makeup issue is perhaps where it will make the most difference whether a Obama/Clinton is elected or a McCain.
In general, presidents nominate potential justices who broadly share their views in an ideological sense. McCain, for a variety of reasons (including party affiliations and pressures), will nominate justices more along the lines of Alito, Roberts, Scalia, etc. Obama/Clinton will nominate those along the lines of Stevens, Ginsburg, and Breyer. Think it makes no difference? Wait until the Heller votes are out...
It's probable then that Ginsburg and Stevens might be the next to be replaced (see below). Stevens is by far the eldest...and Ginsburg is suffering poor health. If McCain becomes president this next term, the court has the potential to become decidedly "conservative." (Note I hate the terms "liberal" and "conservative") If Obama/Clinton become president, then the make-up of the court will probably remain about the same as it is now.
Given the likelihood that some post-Heller SCOTUS challenges are going to be coming in the next 4-5 years or so (such as incorporation), it would be very nice to have the court a little more "2A friendly." And that is what a McCain presidency would get us. Of course 2A friendly justices are often states-rights friendly. I am all for states rights....but against states powers that seek to over-rule the fundamental protections outlined in the bill of rights.... And I trust that a Scalia, Alito, Roberts, Thomas, etc., would concur.
The proof is in the pudding. I looked up the Senate confirmation votes for Justices Roberts and Alito. The results are revealing, and this quite likely will be the issue I use to justify my vote come November.
Vote to confirm Samuel Alito to United States Supreme Court Justice:
McCain YES
Clinton NO
Obama NO
Kerry NO
Vote to confirm John Roberts to United States Supreme Court Justice:
McCain YES
Clinton NO
Obama NO
Kerry NO
How senators vote is how we know them, and judge them. It is the only objective means by which we may evaluate their future positions and performance. These votes above are very meaningful - do not make the mistake of taking them lightly.
Here is a list of the justices, in order of their ages (descending), who nominated them, and when they took office.
John Paul Stevens
(age 87)
Ford
December 19, 1975
Ruth Bader Ginsburg
(age 75)
Clinton
August 10, 1993
Antonin Scalia
(age 72)
Reagan
September 26, 1986
Anthony Kennedy
(age 71)
Reagan
February 18, 1988
Stephen Breyer
(age 69)
Clinton
August 3, 1994
David Souter
(age 68)
G.H.W. Bush
October 9, 1990
Clarence Thomas
(age 59)
G.H.W. Bush
October 23, 1991
Samuel Alito
(age 58)
G.W. Bush
January 31, 2006
John Roberts (Chief Justice)
(age 53)
G.W. Bush
September 29, 2005
There has been a lot of talk about McCain...how he's not conservative enough for the "core", how he's not 2A friendly enough, etc. That might all be true. But some have even claimed that there is no difference between Obama/McCain/Clinton. That is not only untrue, but a dangerous spread of misinformation - lest someone who doesn't know any better believe it.
You see, there is another consideration here - a big consideration - and that is Supreme Court nominations made by the president. This is, unfortunately, becoming more and more true as the court gains more and more influence politically. Sometimes even unpopular and "lame-duck" presidents leave a strong and influential legacy behind in the courts. Think what you will of GW Bush, but two men will be his main legacy...Samuel Alito and John Roberts. No big deal? Without just those two (given a Gore and/or Kerry presidency we would NOT have them), it's very possible that the court would rule this June that the 2A does NOT protect an individual right to keep and bear firearms. And then....OMG....the gun ban bills would fly like dust in west Texas.
No one really knows when a Supreme Court justice will be replaced. They are "life" appointments but often step down for health or mental reasons, etc. before the end of their lives. I am not sure about all the details and dynamics, but that's the general jist. This court makeup issue is perhaps where it will make the most difference whether a Obama/Clinton is elected or a McCain.
In general, presidents nominate potential justices who broadly share their views in an ideological sense. McCain, for a variety of reasons (including party affiliations and pressures), will nominate justices more along the lines of Alito, Roberts, Scalia, etc. Obama/Clinton will nominate those along the lines of Stevens, Ginsburg, and Breyer. Think it makes no difference? Wait until the Heller votes are out...
It's probable then that Ginsburg and Stevens might be the next to be replaced (see below). Stevens is by far the eldest...and Ginsburg is suffering poor health. If McCain becomes president this next term, the court has the potential to become decidedly "conservative." (Note I hate the terms "liberal" and "conservative") If Obama/Clinton become president, then the make-up of the court will probably remain about the same as it is now.
Given the likelihood that some post-Heller SCOTUS challenges are going to be coming in the next 4-5 years or so (such as incorporation), it would be very nice to have the court a little more "2A friendly." And that is what a McCain presidency would get us. Of course 2A friendly justices are often states-rights friendly. I am all for states rights....but against states powers that seek to over-rule the fundamental protections outlined in the bill of rights.... And I trust that a Scalia, Alito, Roberts, Thomas, etc., would concur.
The proof is in the pudding. I looked up the Senate confirmation votes for Justices Roberts and Alito. The results are revealing, and this quite likely will be the issue I use to justify my vote come November.
Vote to confirm Samuel Alito to United States Supreme Court Justice:
McCain YES
Clinton NO
Obama NO
Kerry NO
Vote to confirm John Roberts to United States Supreme Court Justice:
McCain YES
Clinton NO
Obama NO
Kerry NO
How senators vote is how we know them, and judge them. It is the only objective means by which we may evaluate their future positions and performance. These votes above are very meaningful - do not make the mistake of taking them lightly.
Here is a list of the justices, in order of their ages (descending), who nominated them, and when they took office.
John Paul Stevens
(age 87)
Ford
December 19, 1975
Ruth Bader Ginsburg
(age 75)
Clinton
August 10, 1993
Antonin Scalia
(age 72)
Reagan
September 26, 1986
Anthony Kennedy
(age 71)
Reagan
February 18, 1988
Stephen Breyer
(age 69)
Clinton
August 3, 1994
David Souter
(age 68)
G.H.W. Bush
October 9, 1990
Clarence Thomas
(age 59)
G.H.W. Bush
October 23, 1991
Samuel Alito
(age 58)
G.W. Bush
January 31, 2006
John Roberts (Chief Justice)
(age 53)
G.W. Bush
September 29, 2005