Good News! Component prices will drop soon!

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Sommerled

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I had a conversation with an industry insider today. He is in the top management of ATK, the parent company of several component manufacturers, and is based in Anoka, MN, where the Lake City Arsenal (Federal) is. He is married to a first cousin of mine.

The spot market prices for lead and copper are heading downwards and there are starting to be some surplus stocks, according to him, and sales appear to be slowing down significantly. Thats good for us!

He predicted a 25% drop in prices from his companies in the next few months. He had no comment on Olin (Winchester) or Remington.


Lets hope he's right!

Sommerled
 
If that's true a 25% drop will be welcomed but I won't believe it until I see it. They are fast to raise prices but they rarely bring them down let alone bring them down that much.

I sure hope you're right and I do appreciate the news...
 
and sales appear to be slowing down significantly.
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If it wasn't for the change of the US president, just as a recession was kicking in, the ammo companies would be in the same boat as most other companies, competing to win the consumer's dollar.
So maybe now it's time for them to come back to reality too.
 
It's simply suppy and demand. When the supply exceeds the the demand, prices automatically decline. Simple Ecomomics 101. I sincerely hope it's true since we shooters deserve a break once in a while.
 
That's what I'm talkin bout Willis. A .451 200gr XTP Bullet will be fairly priced at .12 cents ea.
 
It's simply suppy and demand. When the supply exceeds the the demand, prices automatically decline. Simple Ecomomics 101. I sincerely hope it's true since we shooters deserve a break once in a while.
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Yup. You can sell a few things at a higher price or a lot of things at a lower price. There is a fine line where profit maximization occurs. The trick is to figure out where that is and it usually is a win win for producers and consumers.
 
Seems like folks either ran out of money to stockpile, or ran out of storage space.
 
I'll tell you one thing for sure, after being fairly new to reloading as the change in presidency happened, I won't let that happen to me again. :banghead:

If it looks like a anti gun guy is leading in the polls, I'll be on a buying spree while prices are cheap.
 
I had a conversation with an industry insider today. He is in the top management of ATK, the parent company of several component manufacturers, and is based in Anoka, MN, where the Lake City Arsenal (Federal) is. He is married to a first cousin of mine.
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Think someone is yanking your chain. The US ARMY Lake City ammunition plant is in Independence, Missouri. It is ran by ATK on contract.
 
Think someone is yanking your chain. The US ARMY Lake City ammunition plant is in Independence, Missouri. It is ran by ATK on contract.
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This.

And ATK (Alliant Tech Systems) sends Federal Ammunition employees to operate the facility.

The government owns the facility and equipment. ATK is under contract to manufacture ammunition for the military there. ATK sends their "star team" of Federal Ammunition employees to fulfill the manufacturing contract terms.

I can almost guarantee someone in the top executive or managerial echelon of ATK will not ever know the price of anything they make. They are not concerned with prices. They are concerned with making decisions and making profit.

I can tell you as a commercial ammunition manufacturer for several years, the price of OEM powder or primers hasn't changed more than 3%.

Primer supply is not going to clear up in the next year. CCI, for an example makes 3 million primers per day flat out production. They are back ordered over 1 billion. If they stopped making their ammo and just made primers with no new orders, it would take well over a year to catch up.
 
The spot market prices for lead and copper are heading downwards and there are starting to be some surplus stocks, according to him ....
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Spot prices on lead are about the same as they were a year ago around $1.
But copper has been on the rise. A year ago it was $2.60, today it is $3.50.
Fortunately, for the most part, people have stopped hoarding ammo which holds down the price of ammo.
WalMart has ammo on the shelves but it's still overpriced.
 
even if the major component makers lowered their prices today it would take a long time for the trickle down effect to actually hit the consumer.

The distributors and other resllers are going to need to clear their inventory (if they have any) of the more expensively purchased components and then try to make a profit on the cheaper components by selling them at the same higher prices for awhile. the same goes with the stores that buy from the distributors, and then maybe in a year or more like two we will actually see any budge in prices, but by that time it will be election year again and folks will start to be pre-emptive in their hoarding "just in case" obama is re-elected and is then a lame duck that will be even more dangerous to those of us that enjoy democracy and don't want to be in a socialist country.

again, prices will stay the same for a long time. luckily even in my podunk area we are seeing primers start to roll in again (and they are CCI's that are pre-loaded on those APS strips so I can use my bench mounted APS primer).

also great time to be trolling the forums and gun boards to snag up components and even ammo from the hoarders that are now out of work or never needed the components in the first place and were just stashing as much as possible just in case obama and the lefties did something crazy, and now these folks need to off load some inventory to make room or cash for other things.

just my 2 cents FWIW...
 
It's simply suppy and demand. When the supply exceeds the the demand, prices automatically decline. Simple Ecomomics 101.
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This is so very true. If there is a softening of the market it must be due to a drop in ammunition consumption by our military. LC is absolutely unable to meet war time demand so the Armed Services buy the majority of their ammunition from the commercial market. To date, the ammunition manufacturers have been running their plants at capacity. They are not interested in adding capacity because they are making the profits they want and the length of the war is unpredictable. The Government does not care what price it pays as long as it gets the ammunition it wants. That has driven prices much more than “raw material” costs as Manufacturers are not interested in selling components to civilians for less than what they get from the military.

As much as Gun Happy shooters are interested in the military, war has increased our costs. Let’s get a peace dividend.
 
Where on Earth do you find primers for that price? @ Sheels they're ~$30 plus tax.
 
Price Drop?

I will say that recently Federal dumped a load of ammo that fell out of spec with their military contract, you may have seen it show up at Walmart. As far as metal prices they are on the increase not decline. The prices will not go down until lead moves below the $.75/lb point. The big players buy their metals on contracted prices and some go out two years. Supply and demand will dictate prices more than anything else, always has. I get questions on pricing based on the LME, but remember the lead has to be alloyed and shipped, that is added onto the LME price point. Copper is priced quite a bit above the LME depending on how the material is processed for the manufacturer. Plate for deep drawing jackets or anode nuggets for plating. When lead is no longer used for car batteries, lead prices will fall. We have to be cautious on wishes, when lead is no longer used in batteries it will be easier for the EPA to regulate it out of use.
 
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