Gun and ammo shortage, a glimpse

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like psyopspec I too have been watching auctions and certain on-line vendors, as i think they're a pretty goo bellweather of how things are trending. right now the frenzy is still on for 9mm and .45acp from what I can tell.
 
From a purely business perspective, it doesn't make sense for the ammunition manufacturers to take on risk and significantly ramp up production. If there is a ban of some sort, they might take a "wait and see" approach. If there is no ban, demand might drop off to the point that they'll be losing money if they flood the market. This is econ 101.....timing of supply/demand in the market is a tough thing.
 
From a purely business perspective, it doesn't make sense for the ammunition manufacturers to take on risk and significantly ramp up production. If there is a ban of some sort, they might take a "wait and see" approach. If there is no ban, demand might drop off to the point that they'll be losing money if they flood the market. This is econ 101.....timing of supply/demand in the market is a tough thing.
Why? Even if this new AWB did pass ammo isn't going to be banned.

If anything ammo companies would be well advised to ramp up production as it's going for more money now because demand is high. Ever hear of the saying..'Make hay while the sun shines'?

Gun companies make profits in times like this.
 
Ban or not, I don't see demand for ammo going down in the foreseeable future. Even in a worst case scenario where ammo purchases are limited, common calibers will be in high demand for the next few years at least. People are spooked by what has happened and what may still happen. If I was an ammo manufacturer, I would be producing at full capacity.
 
Why? Even if this new AWB did pass ammo isn't going to be banned.

most likely not but there could be a push back to the old way of registering ammunition purchases and such. when it comes to big operations, its not so easy to ramp up increased production for a short period of time.

I agree with the "make hay" comment but the USG orders more than the collected mass of private gun owners.
 
From a purely business perspective, it doesn't make sense for the ammunition manufacturers to take on risk and significantly ramp up production. If there is a ban of some sort, they might take a "wait and see" approach. If there is no ban, demand might drop off to the point that they'll be losing money if they flood the market. This is econ 101.....timing of supply/demand in the market is a tough thing.
Isn't there a way to temporarily increase production without incurring any fixed expenses and in a way that they can shut down the spigot quickly?

How about offering employees 2x pay for night shifts. Don't know what this would do to margins, but my guess is, even if it leads to no additional profit, it will be good for repeat business.
 
My apologies if what I post below is not in the spirit of THR, which I respect greatly, but this thought continues to pop in my head:

Just imagine what would happen if another mass shooting took place in the U.S. in the near future (meaning anytime this year, probably)?

I will continue to purchase ammunition (need some 9mm) at reasonable prices for the forseeable future (or until I have at least 2k rounds 9mm, 45acp, and 30 carbine). 10k for 22LR.
 
I suspect that most ammo manufacturer's have been running near 100% for years. It is fairly safe to say that they do not have the ability to increase capacity without either capital investment in new equipment or ignoring periodic maintenance downtime. Capital investment only makes sense if the demand is projected to be long term, not just a short term spike. Ignoring PMs will work in the short term, but will eventually lead to problems. Ignoring PMs can work if they time it just right, keep running without a major malfunction until the peak demand passes, then shut down for much needed maintenance. It is a roll of the dice.

Jim
 
Speaking as an employee who worked double shifts back to back to back before, I can tell you that there is only so much of that you can take. You could offer more pay, but eventually your employees are going to hit a wall and crash.
One of my friends hit a bridge in his pick-up truck proving my theory, so I know it is correct.
And I don't want exhausted employees running on caffeine fumes making ammunition that I buy.
 
Does anybody know whether the plants in Tula Russia and Serbia (after repairs for a big kaboom) are increasing their production of any rounds exported to the US? They all realize that demand could be down a bit in a month.

Whether this is the case or not, it must require more than several weeks for it to be packaged for shipping from Russia via the Black Sea/Med. etc, from Serbia via the Med.
Isn't Wolf or Monarch repackaged after it enters the US?
 
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My apologies if what I post below is not in the spirit of THR, which I respect greatly, but this thought continues to pop in my head:

Just imagine what would happen if another mass shooting took place in the U.S. in the near future (meaning anytime this year, probably)?

No, I don't think your post is off the mark at all.

In fact, it's quite enlightening, and people should pay what you wrote their full and undivided attention.

Anti-gun agenda is clear. Mass shooting = carry signs in public with the names of the dead on them, to trample your rights in to the ground. Every time they (the anti-gunners) get a new mass graveyard to play in, a new mound on the earth to stand upon and shout their slogans, their agenda is advanced. Sounds callous and cruel? Perhaps, but it's true. And no one can possibly deny the truth in it. Because we've all witnessed it endlessly portrayed on the news for the last month and a half.

"Following Sandy Hook in which 20 children and 6 adults were ruthlessly slain by a semiautomatic Bushwhacker assault rifle..."

The phrase, or variations thereof, has appeared in EVERY print story on guns published by mainstream news media, has appeared as a talking point in EVERY press conference held by authorities, and has been said in EVERY video news broadcast, since early December.

The entire country is simultaneously p*ssed off and fearful of "what comes next", on both sides of the fence. But the favor is on the anti-gunner's side. If they fail, the next time there is a mass shooting they can stand on the pulpit before the bodies are even cold and buried, and say "SEE WE TOLD YOU SO! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!"

Meanwhile the pro-gun side can do nothing but stockpile and say "It wasn't ME, why are you punishing ME for what some other lunatic did half a country away!"

Anti-gunners want to blame SOMEONE for what happened. The shooter is dead, robbing them of any vindication or closure. They'd throw their grandmother under the bus if it meant stemming the tide of senseless violence that is infecting society, so they can feel safe and secure sipping their latte's under the careful scrutiny of heavily armed Law Enforcement patrols. They've already made the decision to defer their personal protection on to others.

Pro-gunners want to fend for themselves, won't trade freedom for security. I'm perfectly content sipping MY latte with a 357 tucked away in my pocket, confident that I can care for my own. I don't want the heavy boot of Law Enforcement examining my every action or Officer Friendly probing my every orifice at routine traffic stops. (Source: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/201...ooper-following-roadside-cavity-searches?lite)

The world is not a GOOD or SAFE place, it never HAS been, and it never WILL be. No matter how many jack-boots are clomping away at the city cobblestones on patrol, there will always be rats in the gutter, feeding off of the hard work of the larger body of society.

One side turns a blind eye to the problem and says "it's someone else's problem." Let someone else clean up the mess.

The other side sees the problem, and says "I have a solution for vermin."

The two sides will never see eye to eye. So we arm ourselves, and hoard, and stockpile, and prepare. While the other side puts us deeper in debt and through their collective voices, causes the Government to stockpile, and hoard, and prepare.

The cauldron is boiling gentlemen, and we're all stewing in the same pot.
 
Trent, very well said. That is truly a well written post about what is going on.
I think the ammo manufacturers should invest to increase production for the long term. Maybe if they read Trent's comments they would!
 
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Trent, very well said. That is truly a well written post about what is going.

I have my moments.

Truth be told, the weather is to blame. The forecast today put me in a foul mood from the get-go, and the e-mail I got from IL Gov Quinn's office this morning left me in an ill-temper. Rain/Snow/Sleet mix... with a scattering of assault weapons bans thrown in for good measure. Bleh. Nothing but bad news from Up North. (Oh, by the way, when you pay a Chicago toll ticket electronically you get automatically signed up for a Government e-mail list from the jackboots that fined you.)

The only bright side to my day is I have a brand new $30,000 64-core/512GB of RAM 2U Intel server sitting on my desk at work that I get to play with.

I can't help but look at that server and think of all the ammo and guns I could have bought. :(
 
Even if this new AWB did pass ammo isn't going to be banned.
While it may not be banned, there is a bill introduced (I don't think it will pass) that prohibits private sales; essentially a return to pre-FOPA when ammo sales were tracked. No more mail-order sales would put a dent in demand overnight, if for no other reason than buyers would have to pay more for ammo at the LGS.
 
Indeed. Though I'm glad I'm not the only person wondering about the consequences of the next mass shooting (alas, seems likely that there will be one, someday, somewhere), especially if it comes sooner than later...
 
While it may not be banned, there is a bill introduced (I don't think it will pass) that prohibits private sales; essentially a return to pre-FOPA when ammo sales were tracked. No more mail-order sales would put a dent in demand overnight, if for no other reason than buyers would have to pay more for ammo at the LGS.

It is for this reason that I put in an order with a major supplier. At the very least my order is on record predating any ban or new regulation that may be rolled out.
 
The only thing I got caught with my pants down on, was 5.7x28mm. I'm seeing it go for well over a buck a shot now. I refuse to pay that for a minuscule pea-shooter.

But I've got tons of brass saved up, and dies. Push comes to shove, if I ever run out of lightweight 223 projectiles to toss downrange, I'll get equipment set up to swag my own damn bullets out of 22LR range pickups. :)

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2012/03/20/making-223-bullets-from-22-lr-brass/

Back about 10 years ago I had an old friend, who had a press that'd make 223 and 30 cal projectile jackets out of your common penny. It'd swag the jacket, you'd trim it to length, pop it in a casting mold, and pour the lead in. Then he'd crimp a gas check on the back side, clean up the nose, and sort them by weight.

Slow and tedious but it worked out fine. They ended up pretty concentric, and accurate enough.

Primer and powder supplies are the two things I can't replicate at home. Brass and bullets are just a matter of having the appropriate stage dies and raw materials to do the extrusion.

Remember people were making jacketed bullets back in the 19th century with equipment that is very primitive, compared to what you can go pick up at your local hardware shop.
 
Around here (northern Illinois) the shortage seems to have ended, other than possibly for .223 ammo (since I don't need that caliber I haven't really paid much attention to that issue). While I cannot always find the brand or exact type of ammo that I want, I generally have been able to buy the pistol ammo for guns that I like to shoot. I even was able to buy some small pistol primers a few weeks ago, something that has been in very short supply recently. Building up huge stocks of ammo can be like a sickness; I don't really believe that we are ready to enter a post-apocalyptic world where what I have will have to last the rest of my life. I keep enough to cover me for several months of occasional visits to the range so that temporary shortages do not interfere with my desire to do some shooting. I think that if you start to fear shortages you will find that no amount of ammo will ever feel like enough. And if I dropped dead today, my wife or kids would likely sell every gun I have at bargain prices just to get rid of them, and the ammo as well. I have a small safe, about 1.5 cubic feet in size, that I keep my ammo in and when that is full (holding 500 to 700 rounds of each caliber that I need) I stop buying.
 
Isn't there a way to temporarily increase production without incurring any fixed expenses and in a way that they can shut down the spigot quickly?

How about offering employees 2x pay for night shifts. Don't know what this would do to margins, but my guess is, even if it leads to no additional profit, it will be good for repeat business.

It depends on where the manufacturers are in their capacity capabilities.

If a company is running just one shift a day, five days a week, or two shifts a day, ten shifts a week, there is capacity available if there are people to many the machines.

Working over time is only a short term solution and folks will tire of it relatively quickly and will not want to do it any more.

Ammunition production probably requires some skills. You don't just grab some guy off the street so some training is necessary. Powder and primers are dangerous and if not handled correctly in the volumes required to make ammunition, there could be a disaster. The machines themselves will have some complexity and nuances for the new employee to learn. There will be a time before a new employee is a useful contributor.

Then, what do you do with the new guy when the shortages disappear and production needs to go back to pre-shortage levels.

Then, there is the reliability of the equipment. Reliability of the supply stream bringing it supplies.

Buying new equipment is not really an option. By the time the equipment is delivered, installed and running reliability, the shortage will be long over.

It makes for some tough decisions for management.
 
No, I don't think your post is off the mark at all.

In fact, it's quite enlightening, and people should pay what you wrote their full and undivided attention.

Anti-gun agenda is clear. Mass shooting = carry signs in public with the names of the dead on them, to trample your rights in to the ground. Every time they (the anti-gunners) get a new mass graveyard to play in, a new mound on the earth to stand upon and shout their slogans, their agenda is advanced. Sounds callous and cruel? Perhaps, but it's true. And no one can possibly deny the truth in it. Because we've all witnessed it endlessly portrayed on the news for the last month and a half.

"Following Sandy Hook in which 20 children and 6 adults were ruthlessly slain by a semiautomatic Bushwhacker assault rifle..."

The phrase, or variations thereof, has appeared in EVERY print story on guns published by mainstream news media, has appeared as a talking point in EVERY press conference held by authorities, and has been said in EVERY video news broadcast, since early December.

The entire country is simultaneously p*ssed off and fearful of "what comes next", on both sides of the fence. But the favor is on the anti-gunner's side. If they fail, the next time there is a mass shooting they can stand on the pulpit before the bodies are even cold and buried, and say "SEE WE TOLD YOU SO! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!"

Meanwhile the pro-gun side can do nothing but stockpile and say "It wasn't ME, why are you punishing ME for what some other lunatic did half a country away!"

Anti-gunners want to blame SOMEONE for what happened. The shooter is dead, robbing them of any vindication or closure. They'd throw their grandmother under the bus if it meant stemming the tide of senseless violence that is infecting society, so they can feel safe and secure sipping their latte's under the careful scrutiny of heavily armed Law Enforcement patrols. They've already made the decision to defer their personal protection on to others.

Pro-gunners want to fend for themselves, won't trade freedom for security. I'm perfectly content sipping MY latte with a 357 tucked away in my pocket, confident that I can care for my own. I don't want the heavy boot of Law Enforcement examining my every action or Officer Friendly probing my every orifice at routine traffic stops. (Source: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/201...ooper-following-roadside-cavity-searches?lite)

The world is not a GOOD or SAFE place, it never HAS been, and it never WILL be. No matter how many jack-boots are clomping away at the city cobblestones on patrol, there will always be rats in the gutter, feeding off of the hard work of the larger body of society.

One side turns a blind eye to the problem and says "it's someone else's problem." Let someone else clean up the mess.

The other side sees the problem, and says "I have a solution for vermin."

The two sides will never see eye to eye. So we arm ourselves, and hoard, and stockpile, and prepare. While the other side puts us deeper in debt and through their collective voices, causes the Government to stockpile, and hoard, and prepare.

The cauldron is boiling gentlemen, and we're all stewing in the same pot.
Excellent, and ACCURATE post Trent. Thanks.

Warner
 
most likely not but there could be a push back to the old way of registering ammunition purchases and such. when it comes to big operations, its not so easy to ramp up increased production for a short period of time.

I agree with the "make hay" comment but the USG orders more than the collected mass of private gun owners.
Offering overtime seems like one way of doing.

Many companies are burning the midnight oil in this crisis. A few weeks back I put in an order at 22:00 hrs and an hour later the order already had a tracking number and was boxed up and ready to go. So someone was there that late at night. The stuff was actually at the UPS depot at 07:something in the morning. Don't see why ammo companies would be any different.
 
Ban or not, I don't see demand for ammo going down in the foreseeable future. Even in a worst case scenario where ammo purchases are limited, common calibers will be in high demand for the next few years at least. People are spooked by what has happened and what may still happen. If I was an ammo manufacturer, I would be producing at full capacity.
I also dont see things getting better soon. My plan is simply add to my stock of ammo and reloading supplies as money becomes available. I'm short on 41 mag bullets so correcting that shortage is my next purchase. Its just going to take a little more time and work to overcome these shortages.
 
Supply will get back to normal IF there are no major new laws passed in a relatively short time period.. How many people do you know that have not stocked up? I know there are a lot that got caught short but there are a lot, like me, that bought more than I will shoot in 2 years on some calibers because I could. As .223 or 9mm comes back into the store the people that got caught short will buy what they can and be like me whereas I will not buy any more for a while. If the manufacturers are truly ramped up then at some point in the near future the supply will catch up with demand. 6 months? A year? Nobody can answer that. If you do have the answer then feel free to share.
 
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