Gun sales soar in March! Numbers tell a story

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Jeb Stuart

Jeb Stuart

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There is a great article now in Gun-test mag. And it features the sales of March gun sales.
Numbers tell us quite a bit. History of sales, up and downs etc. But you can generate your own thoughts as to why, were will it go, future up's and down etc. You be the Judge.

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If the anti’s only knew that they are their own worst enemy. Every time they march they sell a quarter million guns. Every time they push a new law they sell a quarter millon guns. Every time their fake news media cranks up they sell a half million guns. Every time they.........

If they would just shut up then gun sales would decline if not plummet.
 
Bang! said:
If the anti’s only knew that they are their own worst enemy. Every time they march they sell a quarter million guns. Every time they push a new law they sell a quarter millon guns. Every time their fake news media cranks up they sell a half million guns. Every time they.........

If they would just shut up then gun sales would decline if not plummet.
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They're like a dog that smells meat and cannot contain themselves.
 
Gosh, what a surprise. I see a lot of high-end ARs are selling quite well these days. Wonder what the stats on magazines and ammo sales look like ...
 
Old Dog said:
Gosh, what a surprise. I see a lot of high-end ARs are selling quite well these days. Wonder what the stats on magazines and ammo sales look like ...
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As of right now, I think mag sales are decent but not to the point of driving up prices too bad with a panic.
Deals are still out there which tells me there is either a huge supply that hasn't been drained.

Frankly, I'd like to find a balanced market. In other words, while I enjoy low prices as a consumer in the short run, I don't want to see companies going out of business which will reduce competition and increase prices in the long run. So a balanced market where well run companies can charge a fair price and consumers feel that they're not being taken advantage is best IMHO in the long run.

We all know though, that many gun sales aren't based on logic and sense. Instead there are many emotional buyers in the market who don't jump in until they feel that new restrictions are going to be in place. This causes a panic and the crazy price swings which aren't a good thing for most of us and the companies.
 
The jumps in the months after significant events are interesting:
October 2001
Nov-Dec 2008
Nov-Dec 2012
Dec 2015!
I'm sure there are others that people can pick out.
Plus, you can see that a lot of checks are completed in December.
May-August looks like the weakest sales numbers. I guess people on vacation usually don't buy guns - haha.
I think everyone really knows that March's fear sales will not continue at the same pace. But there were two weeks in there when everyone thought it was December 2012!
 
Bang! said:
If the anti’s only knew that they are their own worst enemy. Every time they march they sell a quarter million guns. Every time they push a new law they sell a quarter millon guns. Every time their fake news media cranks up they sell a half million guns. Every time they.........

If they would just shut up then gun sales would decline if not plummet.
Click to expand...

Jeff Quinn from Gunblast.com said Barack Obama was the best gun salesman since Oliver Winchester. Yes, the antis are just adding fuel to the fire.
 
Number of NCIS checks is a good indication that weapons sales are going up and/or down, but far from an exact number. Not even sure if there is a way to find out what the sales figures for any one month were.

A person might have had check performed but backed out of the sale
Check might have been run on the last day of the month; however, the actual gun sale might have been a day or more later.
A person might have purchased more than one weapon.
A state licensing agency may have run a NICS check for a handgun permit. Example, if a person obtains a permit from the state of Idaho, a NICS check is run as well as the in-depth background check. This allows the person to purchase a gun in the future without the need for a background check.
A person, in some states, could have purchase one or multiple guns without having a check run on them. (I can guarantee that the numbers for December 2017 and January 2018 are off cause I purchased a handgun in each month and no NICS check was run.
Just saying....
 
The NCIS number is not a direct translation for the number of guns sold but you can make a logical assumption that if the number of back ground checks goes up 10% the number of sales also probably went up.

The biggest thing that'll skew the numbers is states adding mandatory background checks for private sales because those are completely new figures. People buying 2 guns under one background check has always happened. People getting back ground checks and not completing the sale has always happened.
 
My nice Sig P225 was purchased in the parking lot of a former Gander Mountain in March.

It is the same parking lot where I traded an Enfield #5 for an SAR-1 (with the same guy) about two years ago.

In March I sold a duplicate Yugo SKS in a movie theater parking lot in Bartlett TN (very near the hospital which saved my life! :) ), and have done at least ten gun deals using the same common FTF method via Armslist.

The antis are too stupid, young, or won't admit the fact that even if every private deal were required to have a background check, it would not prevent thugs from acquiring guns.
Remember the Kate Steinle tragedy in San Francisco, a bit more involved, where a Sanctuary City's contempt for 'law and order' contributed to her senseless death.
 
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reddog81 said:
The NCIS number is not a direct translation for the number of guns sold but you can make a logical assumption that if the number of back ground checks goes up 10% the number of sales also probably went up.

The biggest thing that'll skew the numbers is states adding mandatory background checks for private sales because those are completely new figures. People buying 2 guns under one background check has always happened. People getting back ground checks and not completing the sale has always happened.
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And I said it was a "good indication, and probably the "best" indication we will ever receive" However, I have met a few people in person and on forums who believe the NICS number is the true determination of how many guns are sold and when informed with what I stated, they change their minds.

So I was just saying......
 
Jeb Stuart said:
There is a great article now in Gun-test mag. And it features the sales of March gun sales.
Numbers tell us quite a bit. History of sales, up and downs etc. But you can generate your own thoughts as to why, were will it go, future up's and down etc. You be the Judge.
Click to expand...

Gun sales/Background checks themselves are not a indication of new shooters, only a change in ownership. While it is an indication there are more guns in households, it does not tell us if they are households new to gun ownership. From my experience, much of the panic gun sales(especially high cap mags and AR style firearms) are by folks that already own firearms. From my experience, the threat of potential bans means a run on those items facing the potential bans, resulting in higher prices, depleted inventories and gouging by dealers. Then, when things go down, the prices drop and there is a glut of said items on the shelves due to stores trying to restock heavily for the previous demand. Has happened everytime, mostly resulting in slightly higher prices on everything gun related. Thus, in that sense, we gun owners are our own worst enemy. Why is it we don't need it, until we think we can't have it?
 
RETG said:
Number of NCIS checks is a good indication that weapons sales are going up and/or down, but far from an exact number. Not even sure if there is a way to find out what the sales figures for any one month were.

A person might have had check performed but backed out of the sale
Check might have been run on the last day of the month; however, the actual gun sale might have been a day or more later.
A person might have purchased more than one weapon.
A state licensing agency may have run a NICS check for a handgun permit. Example, if a person obtains a permit from the state of Idaho, a NICS check is run as well as the in-depth background check. This allows the person to purchase a gun in the future without the need for a background check.
A person, in some states, could have purchase one or multiple guns without having a check run on them. (I can guarantee that the numbers for December 2017 and January 2018 are off cause I purchased a handgun in each month and no NICS check was run.
Just saying....
Click to expand...

You make some very good points. However, these would be relatively constant through all months. Thus, they consistent a layer of background noise in the data that we can treat as a constant. It would be interesting to work out what the appropriate level to ascribe to "noise" is.

Even with this taken into account, we still see a change in the data, telling us that something is happening.
 
The "Silent Majority" although not seen is always lurking and occasionally we get a glimpse as in NICS Firearm Background Checks. Warms my heart to know that my brothers and sisters of responsible gun ownership is ever growing. My greatest hope is that they all join the NRA.
 
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