45 auto wrote:
Was it your your crystal ball or your Ouija board that told you that this is a "short-term" crisis?
What is the end date, if you don't mind sharing it with those of us who are not as omnipotent as you?
Last week two of my dealers and yesterday a third said that from their perspective as retailers the artificial bubble has burst. They are restocking for the third or fourth time and the stuff is not flying off the shelves like it had been. They are already seeing guns that went out six weeks ago coming back. Some of the panic crowd that hit every gun show, retailer and online store they could have their credit card bills hitting. Here, the price of an SKS on the shelf has dropped 140 bucks from its peak. AR-15's have dropped about the same. These panic buyers are already seeing the shelves fill up, the prices adjusting and are freaking out over losing out on their investment made in a time of panic. Some are already trying to cash back out before their is another price drop back toward pre panic levels and they have to pay another months interest on their cards.
I was selling two to four SKS rifles a week up till two weeks ago. What the market is paying today compared to three weeks ago in private sales locally has gone down to a point where I will hold my remaining Combloc rifles to the next panic. Yes, there will be more of these incidents. So once the market normalizes somewhat, you regular consumers that got caught this time need to take heed and buy at a rate that will give you enough stock to get through each price bubble without feeling left out from participating in your chosen activity.
I have been buying all things gun, ammo, reloading related for 30 years. My minimum stock is to have enough ammo and components to shoot for at least 3 to 5 years if a significant shortage were to occur. I have an emergency lot backing that up of inventory that is not to be shot unless we reach a time in our society it is necessary for survival. That said, been able to continue shooting for past two months as if nothing has happened. Still get my monthly stocking order from my LGS of reloading components regular as clockwork. He knows what I need a year ahead and has my needs planned in his rolling stock.
Your screen name is 45 auto... I personally shoot a minimum of 150 rounds of .45 acp every week and some weeks double that. Casting my own bullets out of wheel weights and at today's price for scrap lead, powder and primers it costs me 6.50 per 100 rounds to roll my own. At the local indoor range .45 acp range ammo is 20.00 per 50 round box. to shoot 100 rounds of their ammo versus mine is a 33.50 price difference. Plus I am loading with components bought at half current prices as part of my 30 year old restocking program. By the time I get to shooting the primers and powder I am buying now, it will be a bargain by those days standards.
Stored properly ammo and reloading supplies will last more than a lifetime. I "found" a box with five pounds of Bullseye powder a week or so ago. That will make about 2,000 rounds of .38 plinkers per pound. Price on the bottles was 7.95 per pound. Cracked a can, loaded a few and shot perfectly. Due to its age I moved this powder to front of rotation. At that price when it got stored, it is 0.004 cents per round for 38 special rounds. The math shows 20 cents a box for my powder. Costs me 0.006 to cast 140 grain SWC currently. Primers I am using were purchased when they were 14.00 per 1,000 comes to 0.014 per primer. So busting my .38 target loads this week are costing me less than 3 cents a round for 38 or 1.20 per box. I choose to put back and keep control of my inventory rather than the whims of the general public and the retailers dictate my activity.
Last night I put two 100 round boxes of 45 acp and two 100 round boxes of .38 special and a 250 rounds of 22 lr into my ammo box for this weeks allotment as weather is nice and have some extra time to shoot. So 400 rounds of center fire handgun ammo and 250 rimfire with price of .59 box marked has my weekly ammo cost at less than 20 bucks for a total of 650 rounds. Instead of riding around like a chicken missing his head looking for a bullet, I will be relaxing at the range slinging lead and making smoke.
Am I a hoarder? NO! I am a shooter and put the effort in so that not only can I shoot all I want this week, I can next month, next year or 5 years from now even if no gun shop in America gets a box of bullets or a can or powder for the next three years or more. I buy in bulk, on a regular schedule, in advance so that I can afford to enjoy shooting instead of posting on BBS's trying to find a 50 count box of 22 lr.
Same reason after Katrina and everyone in the south was lining up for fuel and paying triple when a station happened to get a few gallons to sell. I pulled up to my own pump filled up my truck and had enough fuel to get through the shortage without freaking out. Common sense and the facts tell us that our supply lines in America are overtaxed and not prepared for any type of shortage or run. Average city has three days food supply in the stores. What do the same folks looking for a bullet do if the trucks stop restocking the grocery store? Starve? If the toilet paper factory burns are folks going to have to wipe their butt with the Sears catalog? Wait, its online now so it would be hard to wipe with a computer monitor. Go to the U.S. FEMA website and take the course entitled "A citizens guide to emergency preparedness". Y'all will be shocked at how ragged the edge our society is riding every day. When loaf of bread costs 50 bucks if you can find it is it going to be unfair that I put a 50 pound bag of flour in a can and can put it in my bread making machine and eat a sandwich while others are starving? When the electric grid goes down during a regular winter ice storm is it fair to my neighbors that my whole house generator which runs off a buried 1,000 gallon tank of propane kicks on within seven seconds and while other sit in the cold and dark we make microwave popcorn and watch movies? No you don't have to be rich to live like this. All it takes is prioritizing your life. My wife and I have not been out to eat in 3.5 years. While most couples are blowing 75 bucks to go to Red Lobster or Longhorns on Friday night, we fix a nice dinner at home and use the money saved to put something we may need in a box, can or bottle. While some are paying 100 plus a month for cable TV we watch free high def off an antenna on the chimney. While most are leasing a car or trading every 4 to 5 years I service our heavy duty trucks faithfully and the money saved by getting 500,000 miles per truck before buying new puts a 1,000 gallon tank of diesel and another of premium fuel underground. When the time for the new truck comes we have saved the cash and don't have to give some finance company thousands of dollars to drive out truck. making payments to yourself on the front end is cheaper than making them to someone else with interest on the back end. Is that hoarding? No, it is being responsible to see that my family is cared for in the event of any foreseeable shortage. We can eat, drive and shoot our guns. So when ammo returns to the store folks can learn the lesson and buy an extra box or two when they go to put back for the next bubble or they can only buy what they plan to shoot and be in the same situation again next time. I do feel for some of you and have actually given away, traded and sold quite a bit of ammo lately to help others. But every dime will be put aside to restock for next shortage. People can choose to live at the whim of the supply chain and its hiccups or they can put just a tad of effort into being a few months to a year ahead of the game. Everyone gets to make their own choice.
