Impact of tariffs on the gun industry

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blackd24

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Please do not get political. I’m just curious what the impacts will be to prices. How many American companies import parts, or is it all made in America? Price of lead going up coming from china? Obviously imports will be affected. Gun sales already slowing, how will prices be impacted with the tariffs? Examples of products and countries would be appreciated.
 
Powder can be MADE here, but some components, like the wheat chaff for the cellulose, comes from overseas, for some reason. We CAN produce everything needed here, but right now...we don't because businessmen sold our production overseas due to lawyers and unions making it too expensive in the US.
 
Will come down to whether the manufacturers have stockpiled raw materials and whether that inventory will ride out the "wave" of the price impacts.

Now, if the manufacturers impose product price increases, that will "flow" through the wholesalers and distributors and down to the retail level. Which will not have good effects in a somewhat depressed gun market.
 
Turkye only got the nominal 10% tariff rate and they "tax" us 5% on their imports of our products. So those $400 1911a1s might go up $40 . Those $800 Huglu shot guns $80 so no deal breakers IMHO.
Now California charges its own people 11% excise tax on firearms, above the approx 10% local and State tax (which local tax amount is also taxed by the excise tax, a new one for the books)
 
Turkye only got the nominal 10% tariff rate and they "tax" us 5% on their imports of our products. So those $400 1911a1s might go up $40 . Those $800 Huglu shot guns $80 so no deal breakers IMHO.
Now California charges its own people 11% excise tax on firearms, above the approx 10% local and State tax (which local tax amount is also taxed by the excise tax, a new one for the books)
NO, they will go up by about 15-20% with a 10% tariff. The importer passes on the cost at his profit margin rate, then the distributor adds his profit margin on top of that, then the jobber adds his, and finally the retailer adds his. A dollar isn't traded for a dollar. ;)
 
The supply chain for any industrial product is pretty international. Things will inevitably get complicated because nobody really knows what is really going to go into effect, or how it will be implemented. Everyone is looking around for guidance because this is pretty unprecedented.

I'm just going to hold onto my cash until things settle.
 
NO, they will go up by about 15-20% with a 10% tariff. The importer passes on the cost at his profit margin rate, then the distributor adds his profit margin on top of that, then the jobber adds his, and finally the retailer adds his. A dollar isn't traded for a dollar. ;)
I think that how govt. operates, at least Ca. does. They tax the sales tax with their gun excise tax.
 
The ‘experts’ in the media predict tariffs will be passed on to the consumer raising prices on new items. This of course will put pressure on folks already struggling financially.

One thing I’ve seen in my lifetime is when times are hard folks start to sell their guns. I suspect as a ‘non-expert’ if it gets bad enough new stock gun sales might slow while the secondary market will see an increased inflow of guns being sold to make ends meet.

Those two combined along with a depressed financial environment COULD have a synergistic effect and create bargains in both categories of gun sales.

COULD being the operative word….
 
NO, they will go up by about 15-20% with a 10% tariff. The importer passes on the cost at his profit margin rate, then the distributor adds his profit margin on top of that, then the jobber adds his, and finally the retailer adds his. A dollar isn't traded for a dollar. ;)
Currently we pay 3.45% of import duties and fees on the purchase price plus freight, so the rate for Turkish guns is raised by 6.25%, not 10%. Of a sales price of $400 the importer would pay 10% excise tax, $36.36. That is one of the reasons why a distributor will lower the tax burden.
Basically, if the importer will import the gun for $350, the increased tariff would add $28.88, selling it for 428.88 instead of $400, would increase the FAET by $2.63.
 
I'm guessing based on this article:


A right-wing group with financial ties to Leonard Leo and the Koch network is aiming to halt Donald Trump’s tariff plan.

The New Civil Liberties Alliance sued the president Thursday, claiming that Trump’s decision to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not give him the power to “usurp” Congress’s right to control tariffs or “upset the Constitution’s separation of powers.”
In a press release, the group argued that the emergency statute “authorizes specific emergency actions like imposing sanctions or freezing assets to protect the United States from foreign threats.”

“It does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” the NCLA wrote.

“Congress has sole authority to control tariffs, which it has done by passing detailed tariff statutes. The President cannot bypass those statutes by invoking ‘emergency’ authority in another statute that does not mention tariffs,” the group continued. “His attempt to use the IEEPA this way not only violates the law as written, but it also invites application of the Supreme Court’s Major Questions Doctrine, which tells courts not to discern policies of ‘vast economic and political significance’ in a law without explicit congressional authorization.”
That this combined with the statements made by (R) senators tariffs are going to be short lived.

IF you've been diligent in buying components/ammo you should be fine.
 
SG Ammo sent out it's newsletter yesterday. Obviously, they are trying to sell ammo so you should consider the source. But I've appreciated their "peak behind the curtain" newsletters over the last several years explaining pricing and availability as they see it. Link here. Copied here because I think it's worth the read.

First, I want to say everything written here should be considered my opinion, based on what I have seen so far regarding tariffs on imported ammunition and conditional to the tariffs staying in place. Late in the afternoon yesterday, the US government's new wide sweeping tariffs on imports were announced. In my opinion, they were worse than expected regarding what effect this will have on price and supply for ammo in the USA. In short, it is going to drive up prices for the consumer in a dramatic way and totally cut off supply in certain brands over time. Starting Friday April 4th, I will be forced to begin adjusting my retail prices where I adjust upwards to offset higher replacement costs on goods purchased later to likely replace what sells now. SGAmmo's price increases forced by the tariffs will take at least a week up to a month to fully implement, and may be incremental, meaning that on the current inventory we have in stock, we do not adjust all the way up at once. For example, if the tariff is 20% for a $40 increase on 9mm from S&B, we may only go up $20, then do the other $20 later. Alternatively, we may make full adjustment at once, or possibly no immediate adjustment. As for Today, April 3rd, 2025, we make a “last call at this price” at recent catalog pricing, and starting Friday the 4th prices will begin to change. Buy it today, or don’t blame me later if it has gone up.

In greater detail feel free to read the following approximate examples…

Example 1 - PMC from South Korea was hit with a 25% tariff and is a major supplier of the most popular options for 5.56/223 ammo, as well as 9mm and many other calibers. This tariff increases the cost to 1000 rounds of 5.56 by about $100, and 1000 rounds 9mm about $50. At that point they simply cannot compete in the market against US manufacturing and most likely would slowly exit the market over the next year with the most popular products drying up first. Also, PMC's mother company, Poongsan Corporation, supplies US ammo manufacturers with a huge portion of copper strip used to make ammunition, which will drive up cost of US manufactures.

Example 2 - Prvi Partizan in Serbia was hit with a 37% tariff, and is a key supplier of metric rifle calibers, economical handgun ammo, and 5.56 FMJ ammo. This 37% tariff, if it holds, will totally force them out of business and you will see this manufacturer totally exit the US market over the next 6 months.

Example 3 - Igman in Bosnia, a key supplier of 7.62x39 and 7.62x51 ammo was hit with a 36% tariff, which increases the cost of 1000 rounds of 7.62x39 by about $180. No one will import it at all if this cost is added.

Example 4 - , Sellier & Bellot in the EU (Czech Republic) was hit with a 20% tariff. This drives the cost of their 9mm up $40 per 1000 and affects other products in a similar way, and at that point they cannot compete in the market on many popular products.

Example 5 - Magtech in Brazil was hit with the smallest tariff at 10%, but still substantial to drive 9mm prices up $20 or so per 1000 rounds.

In my opinion, unless the tariffs are reversed or reduced to much lower levels, the most likely course for where we are at is that many of the import ammo brands are driven out of business in 6 months to a year or are forced to charge unrealistic prices that very few consumers will pay, shrinking their volume to an unsubstantial point. At the same time, US manufacturing most likely slowly raises prices 3% to 8% once each quarter of remaining 2025 and early 2026, pushing prices up to match import competitors on the most popular calibers like 9mm, 45 auto and 5.56 / 223 and more, where profit margins have been suffering due to price cuts over the past 2 years while also dealing with continuous upward movements in manufacturing costs. What you do is your business, but this will have an undeniable effect of forced price increases at our store and all other ammunition websites and retailers of all types, and it is my opinion that buying today will save you in the long run.

Thank you, Sam Gabbert, SGAmmo Owner

This is a thin slice of the industry, but I still think it's informative. I'm less confident than Mr. Gabbert that foreign brands of ammo will just no longer be imported to the U.S. at all, but I do expect all prices to rise. If nothing else, just the expectation that prices are going up is going to drive prices up, at least in the short term. It appears to me over the last several years that consumer demand for firearms, ammunition, and reloading components is relatively inelastic---people buy it regardless of the price increases. So, I don't expect the short term prices increases to decrease later if tariffs are lifted/reduced or the market otherwise adjusts.

I have no idea what exactly is covered by the tarriffs on each country, but they appear to be pretty broad and I'm a bit pessimistic in that I expect my favorite (extruded) rifle powders to become even more expensive. I guess the silver lining is that Australia only got hit with the baseline 10% tariff, so maybe Varget and H4350 won't go up as bad as some others.

Also, I agree optics are going to get more expensive. A lot of popular optics are made in China, Japan, and the Phillipines (listed in order of how bad they got hit). And even if the optic is not assembled overseas, the glass is still made there.

Just my $0.02.
 
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Keep in mind these are "Retaliatory Tariffs"... These countries are taxing the he11 out of us.

I'm going to try very hard to stay away from the politics of this and whether these are normatively good or bad. But this statement is not factually true. These so-called "reciprocal" tariffs are based on trade deficits, not what tariffs the other country is charging on U.S. exports. Tariffs may play a roll in a trade deficit, but there are a lot of factors---including the relative wealth of each countries' citizens and what goods are manufactured there---that go into why trade deficits are what they are.

ETA: @tarosean beat me to the punch.

Further edits for clarity and grammar.
 
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We won't know until the tariffs take effect. No matter what the media or anyone says.
This.

I'm trying to follow but seeing everything from "We gonna be gangbusters rich" to "we all gonna die".
I'm going to sit back and watch. Not a whole lot I can do about it anyway so not going to stress. Got music and a reasonably-stocked booze locker 😋
May look up Thomas Sowell later. He's been referenced but I don't trust the referrers.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
 
Can anyone add insight to manufacturers? Like does Springfield make 100% in US? Or do the import parts and assemble in US? I’m trying to get some info on what companies are least impacted.
 
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