If folks would think about the purchase of a firearm sensibly, this is what should pan out, but most don’t think of this sensibly nor practically.
A firearm is a unique entity in that it’s usable lifespan exceeds the lifespan of most individuals and, more realistically, several generations.
Given this fact, plus the fact that there are estimated to be 393 million firearms in America (and I bet that’s a conservative number) and 340 million individuals in America. If you remove the population not in the market for a firearm—kids, the elderly, anti 2 A folks who actually practice what they preach, etc, and you figure out how many more than serviceable and practical firearms are out there—which would whittle down the 393 million number significantly (relics, unavailability of ammunition (although manufacturing ammunition in the right calibers that are fairly obscure could alleviate a lot of that), etc,, I would hazard to guess the number of available firearms out there relative to those in need of one is a factor of at least 2 to 1. For some, the pool is greater than for others. Most individuals don’t reload ammunition, but maybe if they taught something practical in school, and taught how to handle black powder with respect and not fear, most would realize how easy it is to roll your own at home, LOL! Loading smokeless powder rounds requires far more precision.
IF this was looked at PRACTICALLY, and folks used their heads and realized this, that they don’t need new, but USED is more practical, cheaper, and likely better built, the effect would be, as follows:
Virtually no demand for new civilian manufactured firearms. Which is, at least in the short term, contrary to the intended effect of tariffs—to source production domestically, and increase American manufacturing jobs.
The second hand market might see an increase in prices 10 to 20% for those prone to panic buying. But, go to ActionZip and note all the firearms available for sale there, often locally. The reality is, the vast majority of folks just need a cheap 9 mm or 12 gauge shotgun for their purposes. Plenty of those out there!
And so the majority of production would be for commercial contracts, to spec, for military and government contracts, such as police departments, etc. Due to these tariffs, the cost of these firearms could increase, maybe 10 to 25%, but this would affect the purchasing power of one’s tax dollars, but not the individual directly.
That is, if folks reasoned sensibly.
Caveat: I realized long ago the superior quality of firearms from a century ago or more, and only own one firearm that is under 50 years old—and barely—because it was a gift. I fire pre 1899 firearms with black powder somewhat regularly, and once you understand how to clean the residue, it’s not daunting at all.