In Light of the Recent Shootings....

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From here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2077742/


Looking at the numbers, about 32 people die per day from being shot by someone else. Something around 153 die per day due to head trauma.

What percentage of those 32 people killed by someone else with a gun each would have been saved if they'd have had a gun? Some of them, certainly -- though some of those are criminals, killed by the police, so that's a mixed message. And of that number, how many of them were in a situation where they weren't at home and were somewhere either in, or very near, their car where they could have stored a rifle?

Of those who were shot and who could have saved themselves, how many of those would be anything where the situation would have been otherwise if they'd have had a rifle in their trunk as opposed to just a pistol on their hip? Whatever percentage it is, it's VERY low, clearly. None of us would even guess it to be as high as 10% I'm sure. 1% would be closer but even then too high.

So it would appear that a realistic comparison would indicate that you're, at the very least, 500 times more likely to be saved by a hard hat/helmet than by a rifle


I misread the first time through. I recall thinking I read hard hat vs firearm, not hard hat vs truck/trunk rifle (or, generally, rifle in place of a pistol).

The overall comparison is more broad, to include being killed by edged weapons, blunt force objects, hands/feet, etc, and should include at least receiving serious injuries in an attack as well as deaths, and then I suppose the same for head trauma, and of course some head traumas a hard hat would not help you with...but I'll agree that the odds of being able to take a little time to access a rifle -when you can already have a handgun on your person- adds very, very little. Probably that's why I haven't had a car-long-gun in many years...lately if I have a rifle in the car it's on the passenger floorbard with the stock/grip reachable from the drivers seat and I'm probably on my way to or from a range.
 
So it would appear that a realistic comparison would indicate that you're, at the very least, 500 times more likely to be saved by a hard hat/helmet than by a rifle

This kind of phrasing emphasizes equipment way too much and behavioral choices way too little.

The common activities that bring risks of head trauma are well known. In the younger ages, avoiding certain sports completely is a better path than protective equipment. For older ages, being very intentional about avoiding falls is the best path. All ages would do better to work much harder at avoiding automobile accidents.

The common activities that increase risks of "needing" a firearm in self-defense are also known: 1) hanging out with stupid people 2) going to stupid places 3) doing stupid things.
 
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I certainly don't disagree with any of that.

My point in bringing it up was to show that regardless of which risk factors apply or influence the various levels of risk, it is clear that a hard hat or helmet is far more likely to be a lifesaver than a firearm, and far far far more likely to be a lifesaver than a rifle that you keep in the trunk of a vehicle. We like to talk about wanting to carry rifles around with us but I'm pretty sure not a single one of us straps on a helmet when we go for a drive or walk.

If we don't wear hard hats or helmets while we're driving, while we're walking around tall buildings or near traffic, while bike riding, while horseback riding, or just in general daily life -- when it appears that there's at least 500 times more deaths due to that sort of head injury than any sort of violent act which needs a rifle retrieved from a vehicle to stop, then our decision to carry a rifle around must be based on a simple desire to have a rifle with us rather than a realistic assessment of threats we face.

Let's simplify it: say you live near the ocean, and spend some of your time on boats docks, and bridges. And your local newspaper reports that 500 people in your area have died from drowning and also, one died from falling from a high building. And you walk out the door each morning and you leave your life preserver on the counter but take your parachute with you? There's something at work here other than a realistic assessment of your risks.
 
What % of those head traumas are sustained while on a bicycle, skateboard, motorcycle, hang gliding, etc fill in the blank physical activity that obviously puts you at greatly increased odds and should probably be done with a helmet on anyway?

I don't think anybody doubts that if you are concerned with safety, you should wear a helmet when you ride your bike.
 
Let's simplify it: say you live near the ocean, and spend some of your time on boats docks, and bridges. And your local newspaper reports that 500 people in your area have died from drowning and also, one died from falling from a high building. And you walk out the door each morning and you leave your life preserver on the counter but take your parachute with you? There's something at work here other than a realistic assessment of your risks.

I guess I'm not naive enough to think my personal risk assessments (or those of my family) are the same as the broader community that we live in. I do wear a helmet for many hours each week, and during good weeks, I spend a lot of time with a life preserver on also. We avoid boating on the popular lake altogether during the highest traffic times and although we consume alcohol in moderation at home, it never mixes with boating. (Avoiding booze and boating, staying off the water at peak times, and always wearing life preservers lowers our risk of drowning far below most members of the community.) We also tend to avoid high rise buildings and large public gatherings (concerts and sporting events) and take careful precautions (safety and security plans) when we do attend.

But it's a balance each person and family has to work out on their own. I wouldn't criticize someone for bringing a rifle under circumstances where I'm more likely to have a fire extinguisher and a life preserver. I've given careful consideration to where to keep the rifle on the boat, just haven't solved it yet, like I have for the home, the tractors, and the vehicles. The kayak is even a bigger challenge. Since the worst accidents usually involve capsizing and/or getting hit by a motor boat, my focus has been on visibility, prevention, safety in groups, a float plan, and an observer on the bank for overwatch.
 
What % of those head traumas are sustained while on a bicycle, skateboard, motorcycle, hang gliding, etc fill in the blank physical activity that obviously puts you at greatly increased odds and should probably be done with a helmet on anyway?

I don't think anybody doubts that if you are concerned with safety, you should wear a helmet when you ride your bike.

Guys, obviously some are. Some aren't. (For example, many are sustained while driving cars, or falling down flights of stairs, or due to falling objects, or...) But that's not really the point.

If there's such an incredible dichotomy as to legitimately say the instances of one are FIVE HUNDRED TIMES greater than the other -- and likely much greater than that casually compiled figure -- then parsing out how many of them, exactly, are this kind of activity or that kind isn't really material to the point.

And head trauma is just a convenient example out of many I could choose. We carry rifles because we LIKE to carry rifles. Not because we're assessing likely risk vectors and securing reasonable precautions against them. We average citizens of the US of A are not at any significant risk from violent actors who can only be adequately engaged with a rifle which we keep in the trunks of our cars. But many of us choose to do so. Why? Because it appeals to us to do so.

We average citizens of the US of A are at more significant risks from all sorts of other dangers which we laugh off, ignore, chalk up to fate, or otherwise do not prepare for. Why? Because preparing for them wouldn't be fun and being prepared for them would not increase our personal self-image or happiness.

That's not to denigrate anyone, just to promote more critical thinking and self awareness.

If you simply disagree, that's fine. If you have a moment to share, I'd like to see the numbers you'd use to do a cost-benefit or risk analysis that supports why carrying a rifle around in your trunk is high enough in a hierarchy of risks/needs/benefits to choose to do so.

But, as I've pointed out in each of my posts, "I just want to," is certainly a valid reason.
 
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I am leaning towards a trunk gun or something else that I could run to and get if needed. Making a 20 yard shot with my LCP against a guy with body armor has me a bit concerned.
 
I am leaning towards a trunk gun or something else that I could run to and get if needed. Making a 20 yard shot with my LCP against a guy with body armor has me a bit concerned.

If the guy with body armor is 20 yards away...how are you going to convince him to go let you go to your car, open the trunk, uncase your rifle, load up, and return fire?
 
Guys, obviously some are. Some aren't. (For example, many are sustained while driving cars, or falling down flights of stairs, or due to falling objects, or...) But that's not really the point.

If there's such an incredible dichotomy as to legitimately say the instances of one are FIVE HUNDRED TIMES greater than the other -- and likely much greater than that casually compiled figure -- then parsing out how many of them, exactly, are this kind of activity or that kind isn't really material to the point.

And head trauma is just a convenient example out of many I could choose. We carry rifles because we LIKE to carry rifles. Not because we're assessing likely risk vectors and securing reasonable precautions against them. We average citizens of the US of A are not at any significant risk from violent actors who can only be adequately engaged with a rifle which we keep in the trunks of our cars. But many of us choose to do so. Why? Because it appeals to us to do so.

We average citizens of the US of A are at more significant risks from all sorts of other dangers which we laugh off, ignore, chalk up to fate, or otherwise do not prepare for. Why? Because preparing for them wouldn't be fun and being prepared for them would not increase our personal self-image or happiness.

That's not to denigrate anyone, just to promote more critical thinking and self awareness.

If you simply disagree, that's fine. If you have a moment to share, I'd like to see the numbers you'd use to do a cost-benefit or risk analysis that supports why carrying a rifle around in your trunk is high enough in a hierarchy of risks/needs/benefits to choose to do so.

But, as I've pointed out in each of my posts, "I just want to," is certainly a valid reason.

A pretty big factor here would be that we most likely already have said rifle, so excepting maybe time/money spent on a method of securing it in the car that we otherwise wouldn't bother with, there is no expense to having a trunk rifle. It's more or less just changing the location of something we have.

If we had several AED's in the house, with several of them all kept side by side in the same location for when we wanted to go get them, it would of course make sense to put one of those AED's in the car. I guess. Probably can't use an AED to save yourself, and obviously some people have different risk factors for heart attacks and the like (and their household) than others, etc.

Perhaps a similar example would be, I have a fair number of fire extinguishers, enough that I mounted one in my vehicle. I probably wouldn't have purchased fewer if I didn't plan on the vehicle mount, so it really didn't cost me anything extra to put one in the car. I'm even thinking of putting two in my car, in different locations, both for accessibility and because they are kind of small (handgun equivalent, perhaps, at 2.5lbs ABC) and I'm also trying to decide if it's worth mounting a 5lb in the car (that would be like a trunk rifle, eh?). But as with the rifle, I already own them.
 
I am leaning towards a trunk gun or something else that I could run to and get if needed. Making a 20 yard shot with my LCP against a guy with body armor has me a bit concerned.
Going up against a rifle and armor with any handgun would be a concern and best case you could buy some time for others to escape.
 
A pretty big factor here would be thatwe most likely already have said rifle, soexcepting maybe time/money spent ona method of securing it in the car thatwe otherwise wouldn't bother with, thereis no expense to having a trunk rifle. It'smore or less just changing the locationof something we have.

That can certainly be so. Especially if you happen to have several of those rifles and the one that you're going to put in the trunk is essentially a spare.

Yet I'd say that there are still costs worth noting. Some material price costs, and some not.

You have to decide if this is a rifle you're willing to risk by keeping it in a trunk. Damage due to rust, debris and crap in the trunk rattling around on it, damage in an accident, theft out of the vehicle, or theft if the vehicle is stolen.

If you do decide to lock it up you have to find a way to do that and probably buy something to help you do that.
I mean after all while we say it's a tool, a rifle is not exactly the same as a fire extinguisher or vehicle jack. It's not something that you want to forget about, and treat with the benign disregard which you'd give that can of Fix-A-Flat, or the donut spare.

You have to consider whatever legal questions your region and your travel habits impose.

Even the fact that you're taking up trunk space with a rifle and/or rifle case or rifle locking device.

Etc.

While these costs may be very minimal, and I'm certain that some of us will say "those are of no concern to me at all," a behavioral economist would note them all as costs.

Everything you do has some cost to it, and in order to pay whatever that cost is some benefit or potential benefit must be anticipated.

My assertion here is that even though it may not cost more than a few dollars and a few minutes to rig up a system so that you can store an inexpensive spare rifle in your car trunk, the various scenarios we cite when justifying doing so are really still so rare and so unusual and so specialized, and the "gimmies" required to cast that situation such that one would actually have the time and opportunity to go get that rifle bring it to bear are so unlikely, at the juice really isn't worth the squeeze.

Unless it simply puts a smile on our face to have a rifle with us, just because.
 
I am not sure how we have got caught up discussing long guns.

“If the guy with body armor is 20 yards away...how are you going to convince him to go let you go to your car, open the trunk, uncase your rifle, load up, and return fire?”

Are you suggesting I will have better luck convincing him to let me go home, get my rifle, load it and come back to fight?

One does not have to look very far to find actual incidents where handguns were ineffective and it took rifle to take out the attackers.

20 years ago the North Hollywood bank robbery shootout left both perpetrators dead, twelve police officers and eight civilians were injured, and numerous vehicles and other property were damaged or destroyed by the nearly 2,000 rounds of ammunition fired by the robbers and police. This incident went a long waysto police starting to carry AR-15’s instead of shotguns in their patrol vehicles.

As with Sunday’s Church Shooting use of body armor and rifles are common by criminals rendering handguns mostly ineffective. With such attacker shot placement is everything. The homeowner was able to accurately place two shots that were not protected by his armor. Could someone with a handgun do the same thing? Sure but for me accurately placing the shot especially when there will not be a chance for a second one is paramount.

While these costs may be very minimal, and I'm certain that some of us will say "those are of no concern to me at all," a behavioral economist would note them all as costs.

…the various scenarios we cite when justifying doing so are really still so rare and so unusual and so specialized, and the "gimmies" required to cast that situation such that one would actually have the time and opportunity to go get that rifle bring it to bear are so unlikely, at the juice really isn't worth the squeeze.

We will agree that we see the danger in America totally opposite. Like the classic is the glass half full or half empty. I see a nation that is actively under attack by enemies foreign and domestic.

Even worse is how many citizens are carrying weak caliber handguns. Motor vehicles have become the weapon of choice by ISIS. The attacker in NYC drove 8 blocks running down people. .380 and snubby .38 are marginal stoppers in the best of conditions. Shooting through the glass and body panel of moving vehicle? Forget it. Even with the thin lightweight materials vehicles are being made of today deep enough bullet penetration is difficult. Government and manufacturers recognize this with bullets such as Hornady Critical Duty and other heavier bullet types.

I realize that my view is not shared by most of the THR members. We can’t even get past open vs. conceal carry to touch on carrying larger, more powerful handguns. Moving past pocket carry is too high of cost in changing behavior.

So more powerful effective weapons are left at home safely stored away because it is too uncomfortable to the individual to accept that events are changing very rapidly and they are not safe anywhere in America.

I am still waiting for documented self-defense shootings where the gun owner said "I sure am glad I didn't use a more powerful gun" or "I sure am glad my gun did not have too many bullets in it."​
 
Are you suggesting I will have better luck convincing him to let me go home, get my rifle, load it and come back to fight?
:)

Given the bare bones of the scenario as described, I'd suggest one is just about as likely as the other.
 
One does not have to look very far to find actual incidents where handguns were ineffective and it took rifle to take out the attackers.
One doesn't... and then you cite an example from two decades ago. An event which is still cited because it remains so unique among the noteworthy milestones of violent crime. That's interesting.

We will agree that we see the danger in America totally opposite. Like the classic is the glass half full or half empty. I see a nation that is actively under attack by enemies foreign and domestic.
We could agree on that, but as with my other points, I'm trying to determine how realistic and reasonable our views and our actions are. Our nation does not have more "mass shootings" than ever before. We see, as I've pointed out, cosmically low numbers of our citizens killed by terrorists. Even including the mass casualties of 9/11, it's a death rate so low that a product manufacturer would probably not even recall a product linked to those deaths.

And, let's put this in further perspective: Since 1975, about 3,030 American citizens have been killed by foreign terrorists. 2,996 of those died in airplane suicide attacks on 9/11. Nothing in the world could be farther from a "grab my rifle" response than that. So, if we were to (for some strange reason) allow that every single other American who died at the hands of terrorists in the last 42 years would have saved their own life if they'd had a rifle, that's way less than one single person per year. In a population of over 323 MILLION people.

A statistician has a term for such a small percentage. That term is "Zero."

So, go on. Tell me again how we're actively under attack and we need to step up our personal defensive posture to ward off the wolves at our door. I'm listening....



Even worse is how many citizens are carrying weak caliber handguns. Motor vehicles have become the weapon of choice by ISIS. The attacker in NYC drove 8 blocks running down people. .380 and snubby .38 are marginal stoppers in the best of conditions. Shooting through the glass and body panel of moving vehicle? Forget it. Even with the thin lightweight materials vehicles are being made of today deep enough bullet penetration is difficult. Government and manufacturers recognize this with bullets such as Hornady Critical Duty and other heavier bullet types.
The average person who doesn't use and/or deal in drugs and who lives outside of the specific violence hot-spots in our nation's larger metro areas will go through their entire lives without ONCE needing to draw a weapon to defend themselves. Against anything. Some percentage will indeed reach for a gun to keep out an intruder from their homes, or to ward off a mugger, robber, or hold-up situation. An extremely small number might some day face a real predator type process-killer or some other kind of psychopath who just wants to kill them.

The number of people who would be in a position to even be within sight of a suicide attacker running down pedestrians in a motor vehicle is almost impossible to calculate because it's so INCREDIBLY rare. Maybe this will become a somewhat more common event. That's certainly possible. But right now we can say there's been about one. (I've read that there are 14 such attacks on record here, but only one was an Islamic terrorist incident.) Let's say that there were 200 people present on that street who were in a position to even see what was happening. Ok. Let's now assume that anyone who could SEE that scene could have shot the guy if they'd only had a rifle. That's a BIG stretch. There were probably about 10 who would have had anything like a realistic shot, but let's go with all those 200. That's 0.00006% of the US population who would have had any chance of doing something to stop that guy, if they'd just had a rifle with them...

NOT in their trunk somewhere in a parking space or on the 4th floor of a city parking deck, several minutes away, locked up, unloaded, in a case. But ALREADY IN THEIR HANDS, standing on that city street, in the 2-7 seconds either of them could possibly have had to shoot at that guy between the moment they realized something was horribly wrong and the moment he had passed by, out of their line of fire.

Is this a realistic call for (those few of us "gunny") American citizens to store rifles in their trunks? How? Why?

I realize that my view is not shared by most of the THR members. We can’t even get past open vs. conceal carry to touch on carrying larger, more powerful handguns. Moving past pocket carry is too high of cost in changing behavior.
Yes. Indeed, a sober and reasoned analysis of actual risks and odds and costs does indeed appear to suggest that inconveniencing yourself to react to THIS rising threat doesn't compute.

So more powerful effective weapons are left at home safely stored away because it is too uncomfortable to the individual to accept that events are changing very rapidly and they are not safe anywhere in America.
It doesn't seem realistic to say we're any less safe today than we were at other points in history. In fact, our rates of violent crime have dropped WAY, WAY more significantly than our actual rates of death due to terrorism (foreign or domestic). Deaths due to violent crime happen in significant numbers. Changes in those rates mean sizable numbers of Americans who will live or die. Terrorism represents a tiny, TINY number of deaths. Even a 1,000X increase in the number of terrorist deaths per year wouldn't surpass our average everyday crime deaths. So yes, we are indeed safer today than before.

I am still waiting for documented self-defense shootings where the gun owner said "I sure am glad I didn't use a more powerful gun" or "I sure am glad my gun did not have too many bullets in it."
I'm still waiting for someone who understands math and statistics at least as well as my pathetic grasp of them to explain why I (or anyone) needs to put a rifle in their trunk to ward off the grave dangers we now face.

So far, ... crickets...
 
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Again, I'm not denigrating anyone who wants to carry a rifle in their car. I'm just trying to work out whether that's a practical, pragmatic, reasonable, realistic response to a present danger. Is this something we should do because we stand some actionable likelihood of a) needing that rifle, and b) being able to get to and use that rifle to end the danger?

I know we all like rifles, and having them around us or with us can make us feel happy and even feel safer, whether or not that feeling is realistic.

I also know that terrorism is scary (that's the point of it) and being able to do something in response to it can indeed make us feel like we have more control of our lives and our destiny. Maybe there's a useful function: Securing an AR-15 and box of magazines loaded up with M855 rounds in our trunk we can thus say, "I've done something about terrorism. I've prepared. I'm ready." And that lets us process our fear and worry and put it aside and get on with our lives. That's fine. We can't go through life terrified and preoccupied about such things, and processing them through something that simulates an executive function is potentially helpful.

But that's kind of a side issue. I don't know, maybe that should be the primary discussion: Does arming up make you FEEL BETTER about terrorism or mass shootings? I think a great many of us could raise our hands and say "Yes" to that! Probably me too! :)
 
1.
But, as I've pointed out in each of my posts, "I just want to," is certainly a valid reason.

2.
I'm still waiting for someone who understands math and statistics at least as well as my pathetic grasp of them to explain why I (or anyone) needs to put a rifle in their trunk to ward off the grave dangers we now face.

So far, ... crickets...

I choose option 1. It also happens to be legal to do here.

Option 2 would require me to want to spend my time investigating something deeper than what you presented that still wouldn't change my mind.

Plus, I still only wear steel toe boots inside my vehicle. I mean, we got air bags and such these days*. :)

*Said by someone that has suffered from severe head trauma in an automobile in the days before air bags and mandatory seat belt usage.
 
:) That's cool. You'll be ready if you're the 0.76 of a person out of 323,100,000 who, statistically, will die at the hands of a terrorist next year but would be able to fight back with a rifle.
 
:) That's cool. You'll be ready if you're the 0.76 of a person out of 323,100,000 who, statistically, will die at the hands of a terrorist next year but would be able to fight back with a rifle.

Honestly I was thinking on a broader scope than terrorism as I've run into all kinds of things in my part of the world that I'd prefer a rifle for. The recent events named in the thread title made me think of more than just those recent events.
 
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Rifle? would a 223 sbr with a brace do the job just as well? Having something thats handy with enough velocity to do the job just in case would be nice...
 
:) That's cool. You'll be ready if you're the 0.76 of a person out of 323,100,000 who, statistically, will die at the hands of a terrorist next year but would be able to fight back with a rifle.

I"m pretty sure there are other instances a rifle can come in handy that that.

BTW: Your numbers used "foreign terrorist", not simply terrorist, a more practical definition of the term terrorist would have a lot more than 32 or whatever people killed in the lats 42 years. I get your point (and as I said before, I haven't had a vehicle long gun in years, and don't now) but I think you are reaching a bit to create these numbers
 
:) That's cool. You'll be ready if you're the 0.76 of a person out of 323,100,000 who, statistically, will die at the hands of a terrorist next year but would be able to fight back with a rifle.

I'm very pragmatic. As I said before, No, I'm not changing anything to do with what or when I carry because if the recent events.

Having said that, I think that the numbers should include all killed and wounded in mass shootings. That would include the incidents like Gabbys, North Hollywood, and maybe... possibly... even trucks bowling for people.

To me, pragmatically, all of these types of incidents fall into one catagory of odd ball yet significant events.

That would significantly change the numbers from practicaly zero to something close to minute. Hence the reason I don't perceive the need to change what or when I carry

I'm still with you on this Sam.

I'm also with you on the notion that if others want to, cool by me.



I am still waiting for documented self-defense shootings where the gun owner said "I sure am glad I didn't use a more powerful gun" or "I sure am glad my gun did not have too many bullets in it."

Keeping with my fair and pragmatism, ,,, Is there a documented SD shooting where someone actually is quoted saying they wish they had a bigger gun and or more bullets?
 
I reckon a good alternative would be a bigger pistol for the carry or the vehicle.
An alternative, I suppose, but regardless of how big it is, in practical terms a pistol that is daily carried on your person at all times simply is not a substitutes for a rifle (shoulder fired, rifle cartridge). Not in terms of effective range or terminal effectiveness (armoured or soft target).

As the box o truth guy would say at the end of a comparison...rifles are rifles, and pistols are pistols.
 
but I think you are reaching a bit to create these numbers

Actually I don't consider myself much of a mathematician, or statistician.

I'd love to hear some better numbers that give us tighter estimates than I've been able to compile.

I think I've got the orders of magnitude right, though.

But I'm definitely open to more accurate or tightly defined statistics.
 
Having said that, I think that the numbers should include all killed and wounded in mass shootings. That would include the incidents like Gabbys, North Hollywood, and maybe... possibly... even trucks bowling for people.

To me, pragmatically, all of these types of incidents fall into one catagory of odd ball yet significant events.

It would be interesting to have a thread dedicated to devising and discussing pragmatic strategies for accessing and using a rifle in public emergency, mass shooter situations.

That's a big part of my reason for debating the rifle in the trunk concept: not just how rare the events are, or how unlikely any one of us is to be present at one, but just what good it would do us to have a rifle in our trunk if we find ourself under fire or present near a mass shooting.

Simply having a rifle in the trunk isn't a solution to mass shooters or any other lethal emergency. In fact, I'd expect a trunk rifle to be irrelevant in most such situations.
 
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