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Interesting theory about terrorism

Discussion in 'Legal' started by Oleg Volk, Jan 12, 2006.

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  1. Oleg Volk

    Oleg Volk Moderator Emeritus

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    http://www.igstab.ru/materials/Pereslegin/Per_Beslan.htm
    It is in Russian, but works out to the idea that many of the terrorist actions, including 9/11 and Beslan, are field tests of tactics. These acts didn't serve any positive PR purposes for the groups which were supposed to benefit from them, so the direct participants were probably dupes or contractors of trainers interested in refining the quality of their product (direct action for hire on non-governmental basis). Thoughts on the plausibility of that theory?
     
  2. Chipperman

    Chipperman Member

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    Contractor terrorists?

    I could see that direct participants of some terrorist actions might be misled about what would happen, but the people behind it are still the same.

    (BTW, if you look at that page and scroll down quickly, it looks like "The Matrix") ;)
     
  3. azredhawk44

    azredhawk44 Member

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    Original site, translated to English by AltaVista BabelFish

     
  4. Hutch

    Hutch Member

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    Oleg, I guess I am concerned about the conclusions one might draw. Someone is sponsoring terrorism, presumably to refine tactics and increase the negative outcomes. One must conclude that this is done in order to execute an even more punishing attack. Well, THAT's great.
     
  5. TheEgg

    TheEgg Member

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    By definition contractors are in it for the money -- therefore they fully expect to live long enough to spend it.

    The conclusion is obvious.
     
  6. Parker Dean

    Parker Dean Member

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    I dunno. IMO, it gives them too much credit for strategic planning. While there may be a few smarter-than-the-average-bear types, I think most are in it for action. Meaning that they need to be doing something to strike at the evil [insert enemy of choice here], and their leaders know they have to produce results semi-regularly to keep their followers and get recruits.
     
  7. sm

    sm member

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    Hypothetical Questions if I may.

    Has anyone [Gov't] ever stirred up trouble to change Political Climate(s)?
    Perhaps to pit one or more factions against each other - to eradicate one, the other or both. Maybe to have one "plead" for aid and assitance. Any Gov't ever played factions against each other, I mean how better to learn from a enemy than to stir up a fight and watch what happens?

    I mean this would sound like Creative Training. Create a Chaos, and learn from it. Profit from it in various ways.

    Just wondering? ;)
     
  8. azredhawk44

    azredhawk44 Member

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    That's the premise behind Orwell's 1984. 3 superpowers work secretly in cohesion to keep the idiot masses happily miserable and in check.
     
  9. Arkie

    Arkie Member

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    (BTW, if you look at that page and scroll down quickly, it looks like "The Matrix")


    ok, That got me dizzy. :p
     
  10. CAnnoneer

    CAnnoneer Member

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    The point of terrorism is not to destroy, but to... well... ahem... terrorize.

    My respects to the families of the victims, but really, the big money behind the jihadists are just messing with our heads and the heads of their peons. Destroying everything serves them no purpose, because when there is nothing and nobody left, their money would be worthless and their power non-existent.
     
  11. LAK

    LAK Member

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  12. Fred Fuller

    Fred Fuller Moderator Emeritus

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    http://www.d-n-i.net/second_level/fourth_generation_warfare.htm

    Oleg,

    For the greater part of my working career, it was my job to help train terrorists. Of course, from OUR point of view, Special Forces soldiers are freedom fighters and liberators, not terrorists. But I'd be willing to bet that Saddam thinks of them differently...

    OF COURSE governments seek to expand their influence by any means possible, and the cheaper in all terms this can be done, the better. Guerrilla warfare is a 'force multiplier' and every government with any degree of sophistication at all has plans to use it as one more tool to further its aims.

    MOTIVES for participating in guerrilla warfare (or terrorism, however you define it) are as varied as the people participating. Criminals, crusaders and crazies is the 30-year-old division of basic archetypes we used to use, it still works to a large degree IMHO. People do lots of things for lots of reasons, getting paid for doing things (or having someone else you care about paid for your efforts) is just one more motive.

    As to the theory itself- hey, stranger things have happened in the world where mysteries are covered in puzzles and wrapped in enigmas. The world is a different place these days, moreso than it ever was before. IMO the fourth generation warfare concept does a lot to explain a good deal of what is happening in this particular area, more so than any other theoretical construct I am familiar with. The literature of 4GW begins fairly recently (1989) and the site above offers a good overview. See the seminal article at http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm .

    Of course the complete global political macro that makes all this theory possible is a whole 'nother ball game, I am not even going there.

    lpl/nc
     
  13. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    At least from US definitions, not popular CNN news jargon, terrorism involves the attack or threat of attack at non-military targets for the purpose of effecting changes in social structure, religion, government, etc. If you break the spirit of the people behind a given government, for example, they won't support the government as the government obviously cannot protect them. People bomb abortion clinics to try to create enough fright on behalf of other medical professionals and the government that other professionals will cease performing the acts and ideally government will outlaw the practice.

    Terroristic targets do not need to be strategic targets of great importance. What they need to be is highly visible targets. More damage is done to the psyche via news about such events than is done by the actual event.

    Looking back at 9/11, the Twin Towers were attacked because they were a symbol of international American commerce. The loss did not actually create that much damage in regard to commerce via the collapse of the buildings. Where the damage was done was by the perceptions surrounding the event that America was weak. If America can be hit in one of the greatest cities in the world, then so can anyone else's buildings. Combined, these perceptions resulted in tremendous market instability around the world. This was the real terroristic damage and it wasn't just to America.
     
  14. geekWithA.45

    geekWithA.45 Moderator Emeritus

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    Plausible? Weakly.

    I didn't see anything in there that struck me as conclusive, or even as being particularly strong.

    People tend to attribute deeper layers of organization, intelligence and intentionality to chaotic events than is usually actually present.
     
  15. bogie

    bogie Member

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    When the WTC collapsed, stocks fell too. Far more than from the physical damage.

    I fear that some actions have been tests - the DC snipers, for instance. Imagine the same thing happening in 20 major cities... Or along interstate corridors. Or around major shopping malls.

    I don't think they're evaluating tactics so much as they're evaluating reaction.

    Yeah, I'm paranoid. Because there _are_ people who are out to get us.
     
  16. KriegHund

    KriegHund Member

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    Hmm...

    Leads me to an idea for a good movie.

    Al-Queda goes to terrorist-depot, says hey, we need help doing such and such, for 11 million...
     
  17. CAnnoneer

    CAnnoneer Member

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    Or alternatively,

    "How much social engineering do 40 million dollars buy me these days?"

    Better yet, "frequent terror points".
     
  18. James T Thomas

    James T Thomas Member

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    alternative viewpoint

    An American theory: That the "field tests" are to determine our response and long term fortitude.

    Side line: We had them defeated in Vietnam, but for the enlightened college responses that were televised and viewed in Paris. That gave the enemy encouragement (aid and abetting) to hold out a little longer.
    Now, the fiftyeightthousand lives given have been shamelessly for nought!

    The Jewish nation says it so well. "Let us never forget!"
     
  19. Deadman

    Deadman Member

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    FWIW -

    Former KGB Officer Says Russia's FSB Trained, Employed Bin Ladin's Deputy "Al-Qa'ida Deputy Trained With Russia's Secret Service: Report" -- AFP headline
    AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
    Sunday, July 17, 2005 T16:21:56Z
    Journal Code: 2131 Language: ENGLISH Record Type: FULLTEXT
    Document Type: FBIS Transcribed Text
    Word Count: 161

    WARSAW, Jul 16 (AFP) -- Al-Qa'ida's number two was trained by Russia's secret service and served as a KGB agent before becoming Osama Bin Laden's right-hand man, a former KGB secret agent told Poland's

    newspaper on Saturday ( 16 July).
    "Ayman al-Zawahiri trained at a Federal Security Service (FSB, former KGB) base in Dagestan in 1998," claimed ex-FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko who fled Russia in 2000.
    "He was then transferred to Afghanistan where he became Usama Bin Ladin's deputy", Litvinenko told the newspaper.
    "I was working in that section at the time and I can confirm the fact Zawahiri was not the only link between the FSB and Al-Qa'ida", he said.
    Last month Al-Jazeerah television aired a new videotape of Egyptian-born Zawahiri in which he called for more "jihad," or holy war, against US forces and Israel.
    (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

    Compiled and distributed by NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce. All rights reserved.
    City/Source: Paris
    DIALOG Update Date: 20050717; 13:32:28 EST
    Descriptors: International Political; Leader; Terrorism; Urgent
    Geographic Codes: POL; RUS; AFG
    Geographic Names: Poland; Russia; Afghanistan; Europe; Eurasia; Asia; North Europe; South Asia
    NewsEdge Document Number: 200507171477.1_450c0019f1d88e6d
    Original Source Language: English
    Region: Europe; Eurasia; Asia

    World News Connection®
    Compiled and distributed by NTIS. All rights reserved.
    Dialog® File Number 985 Accession Number 210750185
     
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