Is there an annual cycle in gun prices?

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by cc-hangfire, Sep 5, 2014.

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  1. cc-hangfire

    cc-hangfire Member

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    I'm selling a few firearms to thin the collection, and a LGS owner made a comment that peaked my interest. Now being back to school time, he mentioned that his inventory is rising (used guns obviously) since folks need $ for school clothes and supplies. They are selling guns for the cash & not buying due to lack of cash.

    Anybody see similar cycles? Maybe tied to hunting seasons for shotguns & rifles? And I understand we definitely have a four year cycle related to the presidential elections with fear-of-gun-control buying possibly overriding any smaller annual cycle.
     
  2. 1KPerDay

    1KPerDay Member

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    I've found that people who claim there's a yearly cycle are usually the ones trying to sell you something and convince you to pay more due to the "increased demand".

    That said, big sales seem to happen around thanksgiving/christmas... and I've sound some crazy good deals.

    One guy claimed prices go up (at least in the high-end Colt revolver market) around the time people get their tax refunds.

    Yes, he was selling me one at the time. :rolleyes:
     
  3. Jorg Nysgerrig

    Jorg Nysgerrig Member

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    It's like the guys at the gun shows who have been using the same sign for 15 years that says you need to buy your body armor from them right now before it is outlawed.
     
  4. mgmorden

    mgmorden Member

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    I have to admit - I bought my first semi-automatic handgun (a Ruger P95) in 2002 because I had been convinced that when the AWB was renewed in 2004 they were just going to outlaw semi-autos outright.

    That certainly (and happily) turned out a bit differently :).

    Anyhoo - I don't think there's really a yearly cycle. Political cycles sure, but nothing that can really be predicted. Right now we're far enough from any election or tradgedy that buying is seemingly calming down. Prices are coming down as a result. If no mass shootings occur, and we avoid Hillary in the White House come 2016, then I'd wager things will continue to calm down for a while and prices will continue to fall. If something else happens - who knows.

    I do wonder how much more of all these things people can buy though. I just saw AR-15 30-round mags for $6 each last weekend. You'd think anybody who remotely cares about them would have several dozen of the by now, yet I'd wager if there's another panic they'll be flying off the shelves again :).
     
  5. 1KPerDay

    1KPerDay Member

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    Human nature. Don't buy until it's an absolute necessity, then complain about the price. :D
     
  6. PowerG

    PowerG Member

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    I notice an increased amount of used hunting guns just after the hunting seasons end ever year, especially deer rifles. So yes.
     
  7. rcmodel

    rcmodel Member in memoriam

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    +1

    Hunting shotgun & rifle prices seem to peak here before fall hunting season, then drop a little in the spring around tax time as more folks sell guns to pay taxes & make ends meet after Xmas credit card bills come in.

    Black guns & handguns doesn't seem to be effected by that at all.

    rc
     
  8. Browning Guy

    Browning Guy Member

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    I don't know so much about retail sales but I have picked up a few used hunting guns from individuals around January or first of Feb. The hunting seasons are over, and Christmas bills are rolling in. Sometimes it pays to have a few extra dollars cash available.
     
  9. jmr40

    jmr40 Member

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    With used guns, yes. Although in my experience back to school is NOT the time when I see more used guns show up in pawn shops. It also varies by the type of gun.

    Here is my experience verified by a couple of friends who own pawn shops. Bubba works all the overtime he can get during the summer and comes into a pawn shop to buy a deer rifle in Sept. He brings it back after hunting season to pay for Christmas. He uses his tax refund to buy a shotgun in the spring for turkey season and sells it in June to pay for a summer vacation. The cycle then starts over again.

    Handguns and rifles such as AR's AK's etc. do not fit into this cylce. It is based more on which direction the political winds are blowing. Now is not a good time to sell any of those, great time to buy.

    The best time to sell a deer rifle is August or September. The best time to buy is January-June. Pawnshops get covered up in guns after Christmas that they have little money in, but they often will sit for 8-9 months before being sold. They will often pass on a great deal to you just to get some cash in for pawns. I've seen my friends have to turn down pawns simply because they didn't have enough cash on hand. They can take $100 off the price of a $400 used gun in January and still make a profit. That $300 in the cash register will make a lot more than $100 in profits when used to pawn other merchandise.
     
  10. Ed4032

    Ed4032 Member

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    Well what ya got? Maybe we might be interested...
     
  11. Gtscotty

    Gtscotty Member

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    I graphed out NICS check numbers one time and there are strong peaks just before Christmas and in March and April when folks get tax refunds back. I think the used gun markets are stronger during those times and just before hunting season than in other parts of the year.
     
  12. Sunray

    Sunray Member

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    It's the same as anything else. Supply and demand. Demand for hunting rifles goes up just before the season and drops after. Then you see the number of used scoped, hunting rifles increase as hunters blame the rifle for missing the shot.
    Any time Dirty Harry is aired, sales of Smith 29's goes up too.
     
  13. oneounceload

    oneounceload member

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    Before and after hunting season as well as at Christmas and just before tax time is when I see the prices fluctuate the most (besides whenever someone in DC announces some gun control movement)
     
  14. huntsman

    huntsman Member

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    I can only speak from my experiences, late summer is when I'd get the itch for a new hunting gun and usually December is when I'd need to liquidate(the tough times).

    It seems more incentives to buy new guns are popping up nowadays so maybe the market has cooled a bit, one would believe that would lead to lower prices but in this day and age who knows.
     
  15. MAKster

    MAKster Member

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    The chain stores are getting ready to start their fall hunting sales. If you are looking for a bolt action rifle or a shotgun there are always big sales.
     
  16. DeepSouth
    • Contributing Member

    DeepSouth Contributing Member

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    I know I watched gun broker for a 80's model S&W 25-2 for about 3 years before breaking down and buying one. In that time I noticed that around Christmas bids didn't go nearly as high. I would imagine it's totally opposite if buying a new gun, but for an older Colt revolver, a Shiloh Sharps or something of that nature I believe prices drop around Christmas, they probably go up around tax refund time as well.

    Of course that's all my speculation based on a very limited amount of observation.
     
  17. skoro

    skoro Member

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    As a buyer...

    I seem to find the best prices in late spring/early summer.
     
  18. Ky Larry

    Ky Larry Member

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    Do gun shops and wholesalers have to pay inventory taxes? If so, wouldn't the best time to buy a new firearm be the week between Christmas and New Year?
     
  19. arizona98tj

    arizona98tj Member

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    Back in the '70s, I worked part time in a small mom & pop gun shop in VA. Every spring, shortly before taxes were due, the owner would stock up on used guns from the folks selling them to make their payments. He would sell them off the rest of the year until he again stocked up on them during the next tax season. I picked up a few good buys during that time. He always gave us first pick of anything coming in. There were times I would pay the seller, write my name on a tag, and hang it on the firearm so no one else got it. :D I still have several of them.
     
  20. pendennis

    pendennis Member

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    At one of the larger gun shops, you can look at the used guns on line. Around December, they always have a bunch of Model 94 Winchesters, scoped Model 29's and Super Redhawks, and other guns typically used for deer hunting.

    My guess - Not mush success or abject failure. Folks probably figured out that taking a buck with a .44 Magnum was tougher than they thought. :D :D :D
     
  21. lev83

    lev83 Member

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    Don't think there is a significant swing in firearm prices excluding used hunting rifles just after your local gun season closes. Pawn shops buy them up and will sell at reduced prices to avoid having them sit idle on shelves until sept of the next year
     
  22. 22-rimfire

    22-rimfire Member

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    Pricing doesn't change much; availablity does. Traditionally gun sales increase in the late summer to Christmas and then there is a sell off.
     
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