Is this time different - is this a tipping point?

[CoalTrain49]

It will be a tipping point for some people in some states.

I'm not going to address the cause of this shooting because I think most of us know that AR didn't walk into that school and kill a bunch of people on it's own.

The issue is how people view the cause and what steps they will do prevent it in the future.

If a drunk driver kills someone on the highway we don't blame the vehicle, we restrict people from driving that have been arresting for DUI. In this state you spend a day in jail, lose your license for a year and have to go to school for a few hours to understand the severity of your anti-social behavior. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. A good friend of mine got the wake up call.

This is a lot like drunk driving. You will never know who will become a drunk driver ( or school shooter ) until that driver is arrested or kills someone. I read stories all the time about people who are high ranking gov't officials, even LEO, being arrested for DUI. People seem to be shocked that someone who is respected or has a position of authority would engage in such behavior, but they do it everyday.

I remember back about 50 years ago when DUI driving wasn't even a misdemeanor. If caught you generally got a warning and nothing more. LE didn't even keep track of the number of times you were stopped because a citation was never issued. In this state now you get a felony conviction on your 4th arrest. Bingo, no more driving or guns for you.

The key here is licensing. It isn't banning vehicles, it's licensing drivers. Every state gets to decide at what age you can be licensed to drive and they control the drivers test. They even control the insurance and liability of driving. Every time I get stopped I get asked for my DL, insurance and registration.

Why do you think the NRA is pushing insurance / training and reciprocity. Reciprocity has to do with licensing and they are all for it. In theory what they are supporting is unconstitutional. They should know better. They haven't totally abandoned your RKBA but they realize they need to be positioned to take advantage of new state laws requiring both licensing, training and insurance to own a firearm. For them it's just the changing times and a plan to stay relevant.

I see that coming for gun owners just like it did for drivers. Although your RKBA is a constitutional issue, that hasn't stopped some states from severely limiting that right. That's not going to change for the better, it will only get worse depending on where you live. Gun owners rights are being thrown under bus for the sake of public safety. That's always going to be a winner in the lower courts because the 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution reserves powers to the states that are not delegated to the federal government. Throughout American history, states have had the primary responsibility for public safety. That isn't going to change and you may see some changes in your state gun laws.

I watch what goes on in my state legislature and I can tell you there are some very dark clouds on the horizon. We already have a UBC and an ERPO (extreme risk protection order). They were challenged in court. We still have them.

 

[boom boom]

Guns and gun control is rapidly becoming an issue like abortion in that pro's and con's are getting pretty well sorted out and one can see consistency in the polls--roughly 40 percent for severe limits if not abolishment and 40 percent Molon Labe. Both sides are fighting over the 20 percent or so moderates that do not have clear policy preferences.

Political moderates generally dislike conflict and tend to tune out when presented with such. This is why the extensive involvement of bloody shirt tactics using children was used in this last campaign as children's moral virtues could not be challenged as victims--the idea was to stampede lawmakers--it worked a bit in Florida. The idea was to stifle opponents of measures of UBC, AWB's, etc. by the argument of how can you prevent measures that affect those poor children by using the Have you no decency? rhetorical trick.

However, the blowback from the national school walkout, the controversy in using the kids and schools for political means, etc. has probably hurt the movement in some states. Reports of misbehavior during the walkout like the sacking of a Chicago Wal Mart, conflict such at attacking those not conforming with prevailing social outcries like other teachers and students, the rather repulsive rhetoric coming from some youths that have been widely publicized, has probably fizzled a lot of the immediate impact, in part by refocusing the question from the shooting itself to the more difficult policy arguments of how to keep children safe. Areas where more restrictions are generally popular will do so but areas where they are not show little change.

On the walkout, a considerable amount of focus after the event has been on misconduct during the day, interruptions in classes, etc. A Walmart was trashed in Chicago, a student punished for not leaving the classroom, schools apparently openly endorsing these actions which leaves them liable to lawsuits in the future over new protests, K12 schools are not colleges. As a result, involving themselves in politics outside of immediate public school issues generally hurts more than helps as it transfers public school actions into the red-blue fights over general policy.

In my area, protests generally fizzled along with a walk to the state legislature. The controversy over the walkout issue muddies the field on gun control and makes it harder to sway moderates which is what was planned as far as immediate legislation in Congress. Many state legislatures will soon be out of session as well and it is rather late to start proposing initiatives in states due to signature and other issues. Many political moderates do not follow policy debates very well such as weighing details of the fix Nics versus UBC's. etc. as the media is remarkably ignorant and unable to explain details of these plans. A moderate has outcome preferences rather than specific policy preferences--e.g. school safety and is relatively agnostic about how to achieve it. This is why the dumping by gun controllers on teachers carrying firearms by arguing a standard of perfection that is unachievable--e.g. all teachers will have to carry and all teachers must have super ninja training that even many leo's do not, etc. Those supporting teacher carry point out that teachers already do so in some areas and there have not been that many problems regarding teachers do so. Now, repeat those arguments for each proposed policy--UBC's (the shooter passed one), Hi-Cap mags (shooter did not use them apparently), mental health and EPRO (local law enforcement already had sufficient evidence under existing law to charge the shooter with other acts--e.g. pointing a firearm at someone), and so forth. Moderates usually have no clear opinion on which option promotes school safety better and soon tune out if significant conflict exists between two matched sides.

Thus, events push moderates on the issue one way after an incident and then another way in others. Acts of Terrorism tend to lead to support for firearms ownership while school shooting act the other way at the margins. Time and possibly a public trial of Cruz might tend to lead moderates to believe that the problem was mental health and leo failures.

I suspect the major plan with this protest by some groups was to identify and activate potential youthful voters ahead of the 2018 midterms in hopes of generating a blue wave at the national and local level.

 

[ScrapMetalSlug]

Some good discussion in this thread and good points, interspersed with some total defeatist comments that i have a hard time believing are made by real rkba and gun enthusiasts.

It is naive to think this site has not been infiltrated by the antis, although they are usually easy to spot trolling. If information warfare is a threat with fake media, i doubt internet forums are any exception.

 

[Deanimator]

Some good discussion in this thread and good points, interspersed with some total defeatist comments that i have a hard time believing are made by real rkba and gun enthusiasts.

Your suspicions are well justified.

There are "gun owners" who either don't want to BE gun owners or want to be the ONLY gun owners.

Of course there are those who just want to be the last ones "resettled to the east".

 

[GEM]

I see no need for insulting folks who may have a realistic take on some progun strategies, or organizations plus trying to analyze the risks that are out there. Let's stop that. We do not march with rose colored shooting glasses.

If you have a particular complaint about a post, report it rather than insult.

 

[plinky]

There really is no particular reason why this event, or subsequent attacks which WILL happen, should be a tipping point unless it would be that the "progressive" opposition is generally energized or perhaps more accurately, irate. School attacks are the result of many bad policies and even if we try really hard, it will take time to fix. Everyone should fully expect more attacks.

The GOP holds the White House and a strong congressional majority. We staved off an AWB and really ANY significant gun control during the Obama years against much worse odds. We did so because facts and reason are on our side. If the GOP leaders cannot take command of this issue now, they are worse than worthless.

 

[CoalTrain49]

We staved off an AWB and really ANY significant gun control during the Obama years against much worse odds. We did so because facts and reason are on our side

Better check all of the gun control that was passed at the state level during Obama's second term.

"Facts and reason" didn't help much there.

Some people still don't get it. The anti-gun crowd has now shifted their focus and resources to state legislators and legislation. Been that way for awhile now as it started right after AWB2 was defeated in the senate after Sandy Hook.

 

[plinky]

States vary regarding facts and reason. There are now nearly 20 Constitutional Carry states IIRC. About 1/3 of the country. I'm not sure but I believe most of those came to be under Obama as well.

You are right, there are control oriented states moving in the other direction. The mere fact that Minn HF 3022 received a moment's consideration says a lot about that state. I suppose we are becoming a polarized country. States should not be allowed to infringe on the Bill of Rights but in the case of the 2nd, it is largely allowed.