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It's early but not looking to good

Discussion in 'Legal' started by Nazirite, Nov 2, 2004.

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  1. Nazirite

    Nazirite Member

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    AZ CO LA MI WI PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
    Kerry 45 48 42 51 52 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
    Bush 55 51 57 48 48 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
     
  2. Nathanael_Greene

    Nathanael_Greene Member

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    Way, way too early to be panicking.

    If it makes you feel any better, the stock market is up, predicting a Bush victory.
     
  3. No4Mk1

    No4Mk1 Member

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    Your table is a little difficult to decipher, but if I read it correctly it shows Kerry with a 20 point lead in PA. I find this hard to believe (though I'm willing to be wrong...) in a state that has been a toss-up for weeks.

    What is your data source?
     
  4. Nazirite

    Nazirite Member

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    I pulled it off the Drudge Report but they pulled the table down after a few minutes, might be bogus. Sorry folks, I just have a bad feeling and I hope I’m very wrong.
     
  5. Harry Tuttle

    Harry Tuttle Member

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  6. Silver Bullet

    Silver Bullet Member

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    Over on Free Republic they're saying that Drudge and Hannity are both reporting that the exit pollees were 59% women.

    Given that, I think Bush is doing fine since he previously polled much higher with men.
     
  7. Indy7373

    Indy7373 Member

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    Are exit polls any good? Wait til the final count.
     
  8. halvey

    halvey Member

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    I don't buy Zogby's BS poll. Kerry wins CO, NM, MN, WI and IA? Whatever.
     
  9. Kaylee

    Kaylee Moderator

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    For what it's worth, I actually had a chance to participate in an exit poll this morning. College-age girl behind a table with a box and a stack of questionaires. It was *entirely* self-selecting -- no attempt at obtaining a random sample. You wanted to answer, you walked up and did so. You didn't, you walked right by. Makes me wonder why so many folks seem to trust them in the aggregate. :confused:


    ANYHOW.. the chick sure gave me a dirty look when she saw my answers as I checked 'em off. :D
     
  10. Leatherneck

    Leatherneck Member

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    No freaking way will Virginia tie. Even the Kerry campaign recognized that a month ago and pulled their ads. This is a big, rural state if you take the trouble to exit NoVA. :rolleyes:

    TC
    TFL Survivor
     
  11. Bartholomew Roberts

    Bartholomew Roberts Moderator Emeritus

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    Here is a good primer on exit polling and why you shouldn't pay much attention to those numbers until the polls have closed:
    http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=290445

    Finally, let's not forget the 2000 election. It is estimated that Republicans lost as many as 10,000 votes when networks called the election before the polls had closed in the western part of the state.

    No matter what you are hearing from the media, get out and vote! Bush up by 20? Doesn't matter - go vote. Bush down by 20? Doesn't matter - go vote. Giant green aliens attacking the polls? Lock and load; but go vote.
     
  12. LiquidTension

    LiquidTension Member

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    At the risk of sounding politically incorrect :rolleyes: ... could it be that more conservatives are still at work while the "I deserve a handout and shouldn't have to work" types are out voting :scrutiny:

    I'm not even gonna start paying attention until 7pm.
     
  13. No4Mk1

    No4Mk1 Member

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    Leatherneck, your honor is on the line! If Virginia falls to the opposition we will officially revoke your membership as a Southern state..... We almost had to revoke Florida last time.... don't let it happen. I'm holding you personally responsible!:scrutiny:

    ;) :neener:
     
  14. rl2669

    rl2669 Member

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    Market's down, they're spooked too.
     
  15. DonP

    DonP Member

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    Moveon.org exit polls

    Remember that after the 2000 insanity and the 2002 screw ups, all the major exit polls were dropped by the networks.

    Moveon.org is actually running their own "exit polls" in swing states without identifying who they are. I'm sure I'd trust Greorge Soros' people to give me a fair and balanced view of the process.

    Don't forget that the networks calling Florida for Gore early kept some of the "Panhandle Republicans", like my Uncle Bob, home. Boy was he PO'd the next day.

    This year he and my dad voted early. He said there wasn't a Kerry sign in their whole housing development in Panama City.
     
  16. halvey

    halvey Member

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    :confused:
    Dow is down 17
    Nasdaq is up 3

    oil is under $50 a barrel
     
  17. Sistema1927

    Sistema1927 Member

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    Don't forget that many states now allow either early voting, or unrestricted absentee voting, or both.

    As a result, "exit" polls have become almost meaningless. There was nobody standing around polling me after I voted two weeks ago, and there is no one standing by the mailbox polling the absentee voters. In my county a full 50% voted early or by absentee.

    Also, if it is correct that 59% of those exit polled were women, then the numbers can't be looking good for Kerry.
     
  18. Bartholomew Roberts

    Bartholomew Roberts Moderator Emeritus

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    Well if it is true that the exit poll sample was 59% women to 41% men (on the East coast no less) then Kerry is in a big world of hurt; because those are not good numbers when the demographic you are supposed to dominate is being oversampled by 18%.

    However, since as noted above exit polls (especially ones this early) have about as much relevance to the election outcome as what you can pull out of your trashcan any given morning I wouldn't get too excited either way.
     
  19. Nazirite

    Nazirite Member

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    Well I'm off to the polls, wonder if they'll ask me any questions? :scrutiny:
     
  20. SIGarmed

    SIGarmed Member

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    Come on. Its way to early. The polls don't even close until tonight and many people haven't even voted yet ,not to mention some absentee ballots that are probably floating around. In 2000 the starting exit polls had Gore in the lead too.
     
  21. SLCDave

    SLCDave Member

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    The French market? Which market? The DOW is only down 17.70, and NASDAQ is UP.
     
  22. bogie

    bogie Member

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    I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

    We have to worry about the folks who "won't bother voting, because they're losing anyway," and the folks who "vote for Lurch, because Lurch is going to be the winner!"

    VOTE. Even if it looks like your state's a lock. Either way.
     
  23. bogie

    bogie Member

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    17 points isn't down. 17 points is NOISE.
     
  24. Augustwest

    Augustwest Member

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    I don't think the market has much to do with this, but just for clarification, the Dow is down 17 after having been up 80 or so earlier in the day...

    But I have to agree with those who are saying it's way too early to even think about calling the race.
     
  25. OF

    OF Member

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    Ban exit polling!

    - Gabe
     
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