Most Likely SHTF Scenario and Your Payload?

[Arcticfox]

Likely scenario is another depression, or terror attack.

I am going to go way out on a limb with the perfect firearm for SHTF.

.357 revolver (preparing for flames)

My rationale:

1) SHTF is not battlefield combat. No need for a 30-06. No need to shoot 400 yards.

2) If you need to run (literally, or figuratively) a revolver is half the weight of any rifle, and so is the ammo.

3) If you need to hunt, the .357 can, and has, taken any creature walking North america. One if my customers has taken several deer, past 100 yards! There is a post on this site of someone who took a Bison with a .357! It isn't hard to find stories online of rangers shooting Grizzlies with a .357 (not that I would recommend that) Or you can shoot rabbits without totally obliterating them.

4) Concealabilty. You can walk around stealthily, or overtly, carrying with ease! Do you want to hide it on your hip as to not alarm anyone? Or do you want to open carry as a deterent? It can always be at your hip, with no sling to fuss with.

Admittedly, it is not the perfect tool for any situation. It is sort of the "Swiss Army Knife" of weapons that will get the job done in most situation. I'm not saying you should trade in your AR's for a revolver.

BTW, the great Bill Jordon tells of a border patrolman named Sam Mckone, who had a fire fight with a contrabandista at 200 yards. The BG had a 30-30, Mckone had a .38 Special! With some well placed shots, Mckone won the fight! [Jordon, 1965]. I am not saying you should feel good about taking a pistol into battle, I am just supporting my theory.

 

[Squidward]

FWIW

I'll agree with your choice of caliber in a revolver and some of your reasoning. I'll be quick to add that you consider a lever action rifle in .357 to give you a little more versitility.

 

[kd7nqb]

Y3k and I am hanging out with my BAR (which I plan to get by then LOL)

 

[chrisher]

For digging in:

We have food, water, medications and most importantly, TP to last 6 months or more. Also, a 5000w gennie, with gas, to run a few hours each day to keep the freezers cold. There'd be no more TV, but we have a lot of books. Night time would be illuminated by candles and lanterns. Flashlights, batteries and several small crank radios and flashlights. Pet food for all our creatures, great and small, for up to a year. High quality knives of different sizes and purposes. Camping gear with enough outdoor/hunting experience to make it work indefinitely.

Weapons include:

CCW=Ruger P345, Ruger P89, 2 Walther PPK's, Astra in .40, Taurus 608SS6 in .357. Each with at least 1K rounds.

Shottys= Winchester 1300 12G with 6rd mag, side saddle, Chote folder, touch-light. Remington 20G.

Long guns= Ruger M77 MKII in 30.06 with scope, Savage .270 with scope, Rem .22 BA. Each with several hundred rds.

Reflex Bow with several shafts and broad-heads.

Talents for trade/barter:

Wife is Trauma RN. We also have LOTS of medical supplies.
Me=Aviator....ATP licensed single and multi-engine airplane. ATP Helicopter. Also, former paramedic.

All-wheel drive Subaru with trailer hitch and top-carry, (and spare gas cans,) to load with everything possible to get to out of the way farm of my BIL, who is equally stocked and armed.

I never want to get smug or over confident, but I think we'd do allright, whether here at home or bugging out.

Best/stay safe (and prepared!)

 

[Seancass]

the only logical situation i can see arising is a Mr. and Mrs. Smith type situation where two hit man firms want me and my gorgeous wife dead. naturally she is also aquainted with firearms. and she gorgeous.

in this case, i would pack my SKS, my 870 and my Single six. If anything needs shot, one of these can easily handle the occasion reliably. as for food and supplies, i can either stop at quaint local diners, or have my stuff air-dropped by friends still inside the above-mentioned firms. did i mention my wife would be gorgeous.

 

[Redneck with a 40]

Stay Put, Lock and Load

I would stay put myself in a SHTF scenario, I live up in the mountains of Colorado, 40 miles from the nearest city. I'd make sure I had plenty of ammo for my guns, which are as follows :
1) I'd have at least one 640 round tin of wolf 7.62 for my SKS
2) At least 250 rounds of buckshot and 100 slugs for the o'le 12 gauge
3) 1000 rounds of good jhp's for both of my 40's
4) 2000 rounds of 22 LR for my remington nylon 66 and Ruger 22/45
5) 500 rounds of 357 magnum, 158 grain JSP's would be good

If I had to leave my place, I'd load up all of my guns and ammo in my Jeep, its a CJ-7 on 33's with lockers, it can get me up into some pretty remote places. Of course I'd take plenty of food and water as well. Unless it got really nasty, I don't forsee having to leave this place. I'd have to worry about defending this place against the hoards of panicked city people trying to pillage my stuff.

 

[AStone]

Opinions about SHTF scenarios are like ocean waves:
they come, they wash over us, then they wash back out to sea.

The one posted in this little bit of cyberspace last night has washed back out to sea.
(Sometimes, it's fun to experiment with on line expression; consider this as one such experiment ... )

Summary of the original before editing: it'll probably be weather related, if not directly, then indirectly.

Mountaineers, climbers, and other serious outdoor adventure types know - borrowing an old, currently-little-used expression - "to keep a weather eye out", especially when they're way up high or in some other very exposed condition (e.g., overnight bivouac on a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall) and to have the proper gear, knowledge and skills to weather storms. For a mountaineer, what ever else is going on to cause SHTF (a fall, for example) is only exacerbated by nasty weather.

Interesting weather around the planet these days, don't ya' know?

I, also, agree with springmom, (post #85, below):
this kind of thread can be fun...as long as they don't come along too often.
(Kinda like ocean waves...)
_________

Weaponry mostly the same as before the edit, but a couple of changes after some reflection...

Shotgun: 870 (2 barrels: 18 IC and 26 MC)
Handgun: SW 642
Rifle: .22LR (either a CZ or a Marlin 39A) or Marlin 336 .30-30
(both rifles if possible; leaving one behind would be
a tough, tough, gut-wrenching decision )

If I must be on foot ... I'll make a decision before I start walking.
(Hmm. Which ones of those do I want to tote...? )

Nem

 

[hmp32]

Hilary Clinton gets elected president.

 

[Redneck with a 40]

Correction.....Hillary/Obama gets elected President.

GOD HELP US ALL!!

 

[springmom]

These threads are fun, as long as they don't come along too often (and don't ask me what "too often" is, I just know it when I see it)

Hm. Most likely scenario for here in SE Texas would probably be the utter dissolution, not of OUR economy, but of the Mexican economy and state and the bugging out of as many Mexican citizens as can walk, crawl, dig, swim, fly, slither, or roll across that border to flee utter, complete madness and chaos south of the border. IOW, think Hurricane Katrina with several MILLION people, all panicked, all hungry, all running, with some stopping to take whatever they want/need.

(Well, ok, the MOST likely is...my alarm goes off in the night and DH and I face some dumb burglar who didn't think to leave when the siren started. But that doesn't really count as SHTF to me).

Armaments:
Browning Hi-Power 9mm (because it holds the most rounds of all my handguns) with extra mags
AR-15 .223 with all the extra mags
Beretta Urika A391 20 gauge.

and whatever Archerandshooter brought. Actually, since he'd bring his 1911, I'll add my Kimber Ultra Carry II to the list because then we can share ammo for those.

Hopefully all this will hold off until we can buy the land we want to get for hunting (now) and retirement (later).... then we'd bug out to there and stay put.

My sister in law says DH and I remind her of Bert Gummer and his wife in Tremors. I think I can see why, re-reading this post....

Springmom

 

[TheLastBoyScout]

Most likely?

Well as long as the US government or the Corps maintains its integrity...

M9 or 1911 on me at all times.
M4 or AK to make my way to wherever the gov tells me to go
Whatever the US government puts in my hands once I get there.



Back home? Terr attack on Philly. Philly's evac plan? dump hordes of refugees on the rest of PA.

1911 at all times.
No trespassing signs on my perimeter ("If you can read this, you're in my scope, DON'T cross the fence/break the treeline... If you have a need, come out with your hands where I can see'em)
Scoped rifle to back up the signs from a concealed position.

 

[ilcylic]

Not real sure

I'm not sure exactly what a realistic SHTF scenario is, these days. But reading this thread has convinced me that I definitely need to put some skull sweat into contemplating preparedness measures beyond that of just firearms.

Something. Anything. Even a week's worth of safe rations would be a step in the right direction.

I am happy to note that at least my house is made of brick. It won't hold up forever to sustained fire, but it's better than 2x4 + sheathing construction.

I live in a very arid are, so a lack of water is something to consider. It's also a long way from here to anywhere else, but as mentioned before, "elsewhere" may not be a lot better. Except you can probably actually grow food elsewhere.

 

[AStone]

... several MILLION people, all panicked, all hungry, all running, with some stopping to take whatever they want/need...

That, too, could be weather related ... collapsed agricultural systems due to heat waves, extended droughts, etc.

Such a scenario could easily involve tens of millions...
hundreds of millions if one considers multiple parts of the planet.

...reading this thread has convinced me that I definitely need to put some skull sweat into contemplating preparedness measures beyond that of just firearms.

Umm, hmmm. I heard that.

 

[cassandrasdaddy]

in

i'm digging in. weather disaster will be after i'm dust. i live 50 miles from dc. so as long as it doesn't gllow in the dark i'm staying got game fish ans enough stuff stashed to become a mormon. my daugher made me make preperations to move goat pony and chickens to a safe place for a week or so with us. i never cross a 5 year old and she heard wife and me planning for the people and she demanded equal rights for critters. not bad idea either eggs and chickens are tasty

 

[Sylvan-Forge]

Abstract

.

 

[springmom]

That, too, could be weather related ... collapsed agricultural systems due to heat waves, extended droughts, etc.

Such a scenario could easily involve tens of millions...
hundreds of millions if one considers multiple parts of the planet.

Good point.

I too need to give some thought to our preparedness. We did pretty well in stocking up on water, propane, etc., with Katrina (until about 24 hours before landfall, it was thought that it might come right over us), but all the bottled water's been snagged by teenagers or us, and I need to put aside foodstuffs that we can leave in our supplies closet.

Springmom

 

[ArfinGreebly]

Accidental Preparedness

Because my range time is often somewhat compressed, and I don't have time to set up paper, and because I like reactive targets, I have begun using water-filled containers as targets.

I started by filling gallon milk jugs, half-gallon juice bottles, two-liter pop bottles and smaller bottles with water to a) keep the wind from knocking them over and blowing them around, b) have a target that was sized along the lines of smaller animals.

I don't get as much range time as I'd like, so the bottles pile up a bit.

I rinse the bottles thoroughly. I use them in rotation (oldest first). I noticed something a few weeks ago: I have so many of these stashed in the garage and shed that when I counted them I found I had more than 40 gallons of potable water, mostly in one-gallon and half-gallon containers.

Now it's just part of my routine. Instead of chucking or recycling the half- and one-gallon, I rinse them thoroughly and fill them with water, making sure I know where the oldest ones are.

Water may have to be treated, but turning icky water into nice water is a whole lot easier if you actually have some water to begin with.

Oh, and (referring back to my first post in this thread) I think for for near-home guard duty I'd take the M1 Carbine. I can carry more ammo for it, and frankly I'm a better shot with it.

 

[RedAlert]

Keep quiet.

I think it is real important to keep your intentions and knowledge of your supplies quiet. The fewer folks who know what your plans are and that you have stockpiles of any kind, the better off you will be. You will get fewer freeloaders. Less chance you will become a target of a raid.

Maybe let the neighbors see you packing guns for hunting or range work. They might get the idea, your house isn't one to mess around with.

Pack for several different scenarios. One afoot, One with transportation, and pack in such a way you can adjust your supplies to suit the situation. Modular packing.

RDF

 

[bobhaverford]

Terrorist Attack

Today we have calls for the destruction of the United States from Islamic radicals all over the world. It is only a matter of time before these hydrophobic lunatics get their hands on nuclear weapons.

Russia's population is imploding from a high of approximately 150 million to a predicted 80 million or LESS by 2050. Their current population is 15% Islamic of which a significant percentage have been thoroughly radicalized. The only segment of the Russian population that is growing is Muslim. By 2050 Russia will be 35 to 45 percent Islamic. Who will control the government and nukes?

France is approximately 10 to 15 percent Muslim and Muslim population growth is dwarfing the indigenous population. 35 - 45 percent of newborns in France are Muslim. Who will control the government and nukes in France?

England - same thing. Netherlands - same thing. Denmark and Sweden - same trend lines.

Pakistan HAS nukes and currently has a government ostensibly alligned with the USA. This could change over night and likely will.

Iran is trying their level best to acquire nuclear technology. And will soon, if the enfeebled El Presidente Jorge Bush or the Israelis don't take action. This will alter forever the balance of power not only in the Middle East but, more importantly, in Europe as well where Iranian nukes will be aimed.

So, my most likely SHTF scenario in the short term will be precipitated by terrorist strikes and/or political black mail emanating from increasingly radicalized Islamic leaning governments around the world.

The United States, whose own sovereignty is being undermined by runaway incoherent immigration policies, will be the last bulwark against an increasingly hostile and Islamicized world.

Terrorist attacks will likely take place in the USA in relatively short order and these are, by far, the most likely short term SHTF scenario. Despite elaborate redundancies, the complexity of our social order IS vulnerable - very much so.

Having lived through two recent power outages of 7 days or more in the last 9 months I can tell you that our infrastructure is EXTREMELY vulnerable. The terrorists have witnessed the chaos caused by Katrina and I can assure you they have taken note.

The other scenarios cited here are likely to occur as the sequelae of a precipitating terrorist attack. As far as preparation goes: I would refer you to the writings of Ferfal: http://www.buildanark.net/survival_stories/ferfal1_1.html

 

[romma]

If everybody skips a meal or two, once the supply chain from food production to market ends. Believe me the SHTF scenerio will absolutely happen. Remember, grocery chains are only a week or two away from no stock at the most. When people are hungry I imagine trucks will be hijacked. IMHO only the strong and prepared will survive.

 

[Rickstir]

My choices:

Beretta 92 FS High Cap (lots of 9mm around)
AK-47 (I have lots of ammo for it)
Winchester 870P 12 ga.

We live way out in the country. Members of our family that live in the city have been told to try and make it to the farm (one family has a major river to cross) the others do not.
We have a root cellar full of food, three freezers, propane generator with a full 350 gallon tank. Numerous other firearms and good supply of ammo. We are not perfect but we are better off than a lot of other folks.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Live in rural area, ain't buggin out

We're buggin in. Everybody talks about buggin out, but how many have given any thought to how & where ?

I have relatives on both sides of my house and we're backed up to 11 acres with a pond. Everybody's armed, including Grandpa & the kid.

Amen. As an old military analyst, there are several keys to dealing with disasters:

1. Plan early, before you do something that puts you in a sub-optimum situation when the disaster hits.

2. Use realistic scenarios -- preferrably actual historical events.

3. Plan for the most likely scenario serious enough to warrant action.

4. Review other scenarios to determine what additional actions or resources are needed.

Katrina is an ideal scenario for those who live in costal areas. Review this thread. How many people included a boat in their planning? All the guns, ammo, and bug-out bags in the world won't help when the water's ten feet deep and rising.

Here in the Ozarks, the most likely scenario is an ice storm with loss of power for several days. People who live deep in the hills like myself must be prepared for a long seige -- and may not be able to get out. My wife and I actually went through two such seiges in the last seven years. Here's what my choices are:

Living conditions:

A power outage will mean no heat -- no matter what you use, you need electricity to circulate it through the house. When I built my house, I put in a full, finished basement, with a Buck stove (airtight wood burning stove.) The earth keeps the basement at around 55 degrees, year round, with no heating or cooling. The Buck stove keeps it toasty warm.

We put our old den furniture down there -- including a hide-a-bed sofa. We added folding tables and other furnture for emergency use.

We are on rural water, which flows by gravity. We've never lost water service, but have a creek and pond if that happens.

We stocked the "machine room" where the utilities come in. There's enough space there for a gun safe, freezer, and shelving units. We keep the following:

• Small generator (to power the freezer and refrigerator.)
• Coleman dual fuel lanterns
• Coleman dual fuel stove for cooking.

Spares for above
gallon of fuel for above​

• Two weeks canned goods
• Hand crank radio
• Candles
• Flashlights and batteries
• First aid kit (the wife's a nurse.)
• Water purification chemicals

In the shed we keep:

• Minimum of 5 gallons of gas (can also use with lantern and cook stove)
• Chain saw (we had to cut 20 trees one time on our access road to get out.)
• Ax, peavy and other tools

We have nothing but 4X4s -- Chevy blazer and Nissan PU.
In the vehicles we keep:

• Flashlights
• Spare batteries
• Tire chains
• 12-volt air compressor
• Tire sealant.

Firearms:

A safe full -- everything from a flint lock Kentucky rifle to an M1 Garand, plus shotgun and handguns. And lots of ammo.

 

[Heywood Case]

The most likely scenario will be something totally different from what you expect.

Plan accordingly.

For me, that would involve an 870 express with 18" barrel I were so fortunate as to have a choice. I suppose I'd want to hang onto the revolver too, which is an S&W M65. But the choice of firearms is way down on my list of priorities for this kind of planning.

It does seem to me that the topic is more important now than it has been for quite a while.

Nematocyst-870:

Mountaineers, climbers, and other serious outdoor adventure types know - borrowing an old, currently-little-used expression -"to keep a weather eye out", especially when they're way up high or in some other very exposed condition (e.g., overnight bivouac on a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall)...

If you wait until you're halfway up a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall to check the weather forecast, your choice of firearms will be the least of your problems.

(5.11c is a very difficult grade of climbing, best understood as meaning you will not even get off the ground unless you spend more time climbing than most of the people here spend shooting)

John

 

[Rachen]

My choice will be

Rifle: AK-47, Chinese Type 56 with bayonet
Pistol: LeMat
Alternate: Da Dao (Chinese war sword, used with fearsome effectiveness against Japanese imperialist troops from 1937-1945)

 

[mindwip]

I live in ca so an earthquake would most likly be my SHTF. I would just stay home or at work and wait it out. Plenty of bottled water and food to keep me and famliy going for about 2 months. Water i might run out of in 3 weeks, but i have a filter so i would just head to a park and get some water there, or beach.


Guns what ever i had on me at the time. See my sig to see what i have.


off shore bank account? Not needed.
First aid skills? Yes more then most
Passport? Yes
Friends in other countries? No but i dont plan on leaving the USA
Basic mechanic skills to keep the heap running? Worked in a mechanic shop so yes
How 'bout off road driving skills? Yes but i would not be driving off road in a SHTF, i would be walking, or flying
Got a pair of boots/shoes you could walk 10 miles in without a blister? 30 miles? Yes, can run 12 or more miles in acouple hours with out a break. On the Xcountry highschool team.

plus i can weld and work with leather.