No other commodity is in short supply except ammo.

[Balrog]

I have read the explanation of the current ammo shortage, and not sure I still believe it. No doubt COVID, shipping delays, political turmoil, etc, led to panic buying and temporary shortages, just like there were toilet paper shortages. But now everything except ammo seems to be available.

I am not sure what is going on, but I am not sure I am still buying the narrative provided.

 

[Zahn]

New, additional gun owners. If somebody who already owns a .45 ACP gets a new one, he doesn't feel the need to buy several hundred rounds of additional ammo. If a person buys his first new .45 ACP, it is worthless without ammo.

There are a lot of statistics out there, but there are millions of new gun owners. They are all trying to stock up.

 

[hanno]

My barber was telling me yesterday that she cannot get some of the supplies she needs for her shop.

Look at the lack of many reloading tools (especially dies).

Not just ammo in short supply.

 

[armedwalleye]

There's a subset of gun owners that most of us are part of that has a stock of ammo, and regularly adds to it and/or replenishes it, but a lot of folk I know that have guns have little to no ammo at home. They only think of it when the want to shoot, and sometimes they find it and sometimes they don't, even in good times. Now a whole crop of new owners who believe the sky has fallen, plus the "casual" shooters who believe they need to now lay in a supply, plus those of us hunting for reasonable prices, all lead to the shortage. The other "wild card" in the mix is those buying solely to re-sell. Multiple trips through every Wal-Mart and Fleet Supply in an area and then put things on Gunbroker and Armslist solely to turn a profit isn't helping either. You can't say it's not happening when you see the same seller, week after week, listing different manufacturers and lots of ammo for sale. SOMEBODY is buying it at inflated prices, and that only encourages them. When ammo factories are going 24/7, it's not like they can just "add another line". Much easier, IMO, to make toilet paper faster to catch up. The ability and cost effectiveness to create from scratch and entire production facility and line to make more .22 shells isn't cost effective for the short run, and suppliers normally can keep up in the long run.

 

[George Dickel]

There was never a shortage of toilet paper until people panicked and started buying and hoarding it. Even paper towels, napkins and facial tissue was bought out. Two days ago I was grocery shopping and the shelves for paper products are only about 1/3 full. Have you tried to purchase any furniture lately? What used to be a 4-6 week wait for delivery is now 5-6 months due to shut downs at the furniture manufacturing plants because of the virus. The shortage of ammo is caused in a large part by panic buying.

Added: In November we contracted to have plantation shutter installed on our windows. Were told they would be installed the first week of January. Checked the other day on the status of our order and were told that the factory was running behind on orders due to worker shortages caused by the virus. Will be next month, maybe.

 

[Alex Clayton]

It gets to the point of why bother but, here is the truth for what it's worth. Manufacturing can not flip a switch and start making 3 times the amount of ammo, bullets, powder, primers and such. Plants are set up to meet demand. When a panic starts people feed it by buying everything that comes off the line. The plant can not just build a new building and new machines. This is a HUGE outlay of cash. As soon as the new plants came on line the pipe line would fill, people would stop buying. Then the owner has a place sitting idle, he has to pay on the loans, pay taxes on the place no longer running, lay off employee's and pay for them. This is not the first panic like this. As soon as one is over most go to sleep and ignore the stuff on the shelf, on sale every week. Until something sets off another panic and we start over again. The stores here are still out of most kinds of paper goods from that great panic. They fill the shelves with what they can get to try to get people to quit filling the house with it so they can catch up. This panic is not even a year old yet. Great one before it went for a couple years. As soon as the shelves filled, most ignored it. This one too will end, people will forget all about it until the next one. Human nature I guess.

 

[Rubone]

Ordered a new Freezer that was "in stock" and it took over 4 months to get it. Even when it was in a regional warehouse the delivery company called and apologized for the delays as they did not have enough drivers to get the goods out. As for ammo I have not had to concern myself with purchase in the last year and for some time to come. Keeping the necessary minimum for your needs should be a given, and some folks minimum is greater than others...

 

[George Dickel]

Ordered a new Freezer that was "in stock" and it took over 4 months to get it. Even when it was in a regional warehouse the delivery company called and apologized for the delays as they did not have enough drivers to get the goods out. As for ammo I have not had to concern myself with purchase in the last year and for some time to come. Keeping the necessary minimum for your needs should be a given, and some folks minimum is greater than others...

We had the same problem early last year. Wanted a small freezer but they were sold out at all the stores. I remember one store had a sign on the front door saying they had no freezers and didn't know when they would get any. Tried ordering on line and no luck there either. Gave up on the search.

 

[Tommygunn]

Pretty much it's economics of supply + demand x pandemic fallout= short supplies and logistic messiness.

At the beginning in March, toilet paper was near nonexistant. Then the supply recovered. In recent weeks, again it is now in short supply - - - - not as bad as before but tangible.

 

[daniel craig]

I have read the explanation of the current ammo shortage, and not sure I still believe it. No doubt COVID, shipping delays, political turmoil, etc, led to panic buying and temporary shortages, just like there were toilet paper shortages. But now everything except ammo seems to be available.

I am not sure what is going on, but I am not sure I am still buying the narrative provided.

A lot of other commodities are cheaper and quicker to upscale production in with little net loss if demand dies back down. TP and hand sanitizer for example. Also, a lot of other commodities are purchased by a considerably larger segment of the population than the segment that purchases ammo.

Part of the issue with ammo, right from the manufacture rep that I have a professional relationship with (everything that follows is a summation of the explanation he gave me), is that it costs a lot of money to buy or rent the equipment to make more ammo. It costs even more money to buy the floor space and the employees.

It’s a considerable investment they may never get back when the boom in demand dies back down and few companies, especially with how many are going bankrupt, want to take that risk. It’s safer, and perhaps more profitable to just keep working at near full or full capacity even if that makes for shortages.

If they did upscale and the boom dies, who is going to buy all the space and equipment they just purchased? Nobody else wants it because they don’t need production at that level. The original company that bought it can’t use it because the demand just isn’t there. Now they’re sitting on millions of dollars in infrastructure and equipment they can’t use and can’t sell.

This doesn’t even factor in capitalism. Why would you WANT to upscale production when it means you sell your product for less, due to increased supply when you can operate at near peak efficiency and make bank?

This also don’t factor in component prices. Ammo manufacturers have to import a lot of material. The US has abundant natural resources but we don’t have everything. A lot of metals we have to import from China or other places and with ports largely shut down, supply decreases.

 

[Mark1964]

Treated lumber, major appliances, certain groceries and I'm sure many things I've not heard of.
If someone wants to think it's the G, the ammo makers/distributors, the NWO, George Soros +/or Bill Gates ... whatever.

 

[Buzznrose]

Disposable propane canisters are practically non-existent here around San Antonio.

 

[John_R]

Unconfirmed, but I read that Remington's ammo manufacturing was only at 10% of capacity because of their bankruptcy. That plus the increase in demand would probably explain the whole ammo shortage.

 

[12Bravo20]

I have to agree, there has been a shortage of a lot of things this past year. As mentions, major appliances were hard to get. The price and availability of lumber was effected. And even small boats such as canoes, kayaks and the small pond hopper type boats were very hard to find in 2020. Some of it is due to people buying things up and another reason is factories running with reduced staff and/or being shut down.

I'm still trying to figure out where all the ammo is considering all the ammo manufacturers are saying that they are producing as much as they can as fast as they can. Is it the distributors sitting on it, the retail stores sitting on it or is it the hoarders.

 

[loadedround]

Talked with a Customer Service Rep from Dillon Precision earlier this week regarding lead times for purchasing a new 750 or 1050 reloading press w/o dies or accessories since I already have them. Would you believe shipping time is 10-12 weeks? There is no ammo or component shortage out there!

 

[dogtown tom]

I have read the explanation of the current ammo shortage, and not sure I still believe it. No doubt COVID, shipping delays, political turmoil, etc, led to panic buying and temporary shortages, just like there were toilet paper shortages. But now everything except ammo seems to be available.

I am not sure what is going on, but I am not sure I am still buying the narrative provided.

Wait a minute.........you've been a member of this forum since 2008. Do you not remember the ammo and gun buying panics that lasted from November 2008-2010?

Good grief, some WalMarts in my town have the same ".22 rimfire limited to three boxes" signs on their ammo case.....they've been up since 2008.

Being upset about the current supply of ammunition means you weren't paying attention to what has occurred SEVERAL TIMES since 2008. If you failed to plan, you failed. For the five year period ending last March, ammunition supplies have been plentiful and cheap. Low gas prices mean cheaper shipping costs.

It's not a conspiracy, it's not a plot, its not China, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or even California's fault. It's human nature and simple economics that I learned in junior high.

Not a day goes buy that I don't get 3-5 phone calls from people looking for those $9 box of brass cased 9x19

It's funny to hear their response when I tell them "the only 9mm I have is Tula steel case @ $25 per box of fifty".

 

[ApacheCoTodd]

I still see *shortages* singular to what's going on these past several months:

Industrial hardware.
Some industrial fluids.
Unfettered access for free speech.
Berry compliant Panama soled boots. NOT black or *Jungle*. That one's weird.
U.S made roper or driver gloves.
Anti-freeze was an issue but seems to be back.
Pretty much every week I still find myself saying; "really... that too?"

Todd.

 

[Rembrandt]

During the "Great .22 rimfire shortage" 5-6 years ago, CCI announced a new $30 million dollar rimfire facility. Many speculated by the time it was finished and producing, shortages would eventually be gone and CCI would standing at the station after the train left. Bet they're happy to have that manufacturing capacity today.

Lots of other factors to consider on the manufacturing side....life expectancy & depreciation of equipment, newer and more efficient equipment technology, automation-robotics replacing high labor costs. These feast and famine cycles are becoming too common to be ignored...and may well be the new paradigm they will plan for. Add to it the "just in time" inventory and shipping practices that allowed computers to manage the supply and inventory.

 

[James Collins]

Seems like the luck of the day and draw- ordered a few things arrived early but others got lost in shipment so who the heck knows

 

[mcb]

This is primarily about the primer shortage but most of these factors apply to the more general ammunition shortage too.

https://www.powdervalleyinc.com/why-is-there-a-primer-supply-shortage/

 

[3Crows]

Well, toilet paper is not being scalped by resellers. This is a (huge) contributor to the current and last ammo shortage. When you buy from a reseller and pay over MSRP you are only encouraging them to go out and get their buddies and cousins and wives and whinos and meth heads to go buy all the ammo and then resell it at double the cost to you.

And toilet paper manufacturers have a handle on the number of toilet paper consumers, the population of such does not just suddenly increase over night. But we added a bunch of new gun owners overnight and they all want ammo.

And this is speculation, but some less committed retailers may have stopped ordering guns and ammo. Why? Because they were told to pull everything (their interpretation of the order to lock up guns and ammo recently) and have just instead decided they did not want the liability and have declined to resupply.

 

[vintovka]

Concrete and lumber here in PNW are beyond dear, Prices are double + and building right now is beyond comprehension. Fuel and food prices took a jump as well. Forgot to add home values up 20% from last year and 12+% projected for this year. Bad news for everyone including homeowners and renters. Think inflation may go nuts.

 

[George P]

Let's not forget, Remington who is a major ammo maker, hasn't been making much since before the BK they went through. They are finally starting to get production going so it should help ease some of the shortages.

 

[edwardware]

. . . led to panic buying and temporary shortages, just like there were toilet paper shortages. But now everything except ammo seems to be available.

I touch a Supply Chain (only marginally political, >$100million/yr) and I suspect that you completely underestimate the fragility of "modern, efficient manufacturing practices".

If you needed to wash 10% more clothes in your house this week, you might notice.

If my employer saw a 10% increase in demand for even a small slice if its products, it would take us months to fill it, even though the excess demand might only be a week's worth of production. The supply of everything, vertically, from the bearing grease we use on the machines, to the ink that prints the stickers that go on each item, has had every bit of breathing room squeezed out of it, with nearly no margin to spare.

This "saves" hundreds of thousands a year in "cost of inventory on hand" (a bit of balance sheet deception straight from hell), and works fine. . . until you get a 30% spike in demand for every product you make, and literally every supply contract you have goes belly up (light bulbs, temp labor, hand towels, forklift batteries. . .)

Don't like it? Own your own reserve inventory, because the MBAs running the manufacturers who make the stuff aren't going to do it for you.

 

[defjon]

With all the unrest and issues, could I see the powers that be wanting to limit ammo in an effort to avoid bloodshed? Sure.

Evidence of that being scarcity? I'm not so sure. I don't find the premise that it's only ammo to be my experience. I think a global shut down due to various governments response to the virus affects a lot of goods.

Tried to buy a hot tub this summer. Wait was 5x longer and delivery was iffy and depended on materials and production and various plants being shut down if someone tested positive.

Thank goodness we never had the meat shortages rumored back in April. Food is still pretty available. We're a global economy and we're looking at at an event that impacts multiple levels in many different areas.