North Korea Declaring War against USA

[Gewehr98]

The Mouse That Roared...

aka, declare war on the United States, lose quickly, and reap impressive amounts of financial aid, technology upgrades, and economic assistance from the victor.

 

[Lou629]

I'm not so sure SoCal...

< deleted this post in responding to another that seems to have disappeared >

 

[quatin]

quatin, the mainland Chinese would have to get across open water with those 40K troops. The question there is how many might actually arrive?

I was talking about the US, the US amphibious forces can transport 40k of troops at one time. This relates to how is the US going to stop China's hostility without an invasion?

Also, Chian Hai Shek and his party was not any better. China was in as bad shape economically/socially as N.Korea is now under his rule. Comparatively Mao was one step forward. Granted his reaction was rather extreme, as is with almost any follow up leader to a overly corrupt government, it at least got the country unified and moving under one rule.

 

[Art Eatman]

China has had a certain amount of control over the NK megalomaniac via trade. Nobody else, really, will trade with NK due to its lack of hard currency.

China certainly has cause for concern about radioactive fallout if the North uses nukes on the South. Same for Japan. I guess a look at an annual wind rose might be worthwhile.

As far as China and armaments which would overwhelm our naval forces, they offered a helluva lot of money to the inventor of the Metalstorm gun. He turned them down. A conceptual use is for protection of naval vessels.

But NK is pretty much limited to conventional war on the peninsula. It's actual, proven delivery systems basically can't deliver. I'd worry more about a nuke on a ship than their rocketry. For Japan, of course, it's a bit different.

Art

 

[High Planes Drifter]

SoCal Shooterwrote:
In my assesment it is necessary to get China on our side completely.
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I dont think that will happen; but we dont need them anyway. We just need them to stay out of it.


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Because if NK decides to make a go for the south again China is the only nation with enough military mass in the region that we can look to. Otherwise we have to nuke the NK, there really is not other alternative, a conventional war with NK is out of the question.
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To say the least - Todays United States military would demolish North Korean forces in a timely fashion. What happened in the 50's is nothing like what you will see happen if war were to break out today. Thing is, they're worse off than they were in the 50's. They're people have resorted to canibalism because of the starvation in NK.

 

[quatin]

China certainly has cause for concern about radioactive fallout if the North uses nukes on the South. Same for Japan. I guess a look at an annual wind rose might be worthwhile.

I think N. Korea is developing the nuke primarily for the US, we're the only nation they have mentioned publicly about "aggression and defense". Besides, they can take over S. Korea conventionally and can just develop midrange missiles to shoot at Japan. Japan is afraid of a nuclear lash out of revenge for crimes against humanity (rape, torture, execution and etc.) they performed on Korea during WWII. People in Asia are still bitter about the Nano-Japanese invasion, there are still those living who personally witnessed or were subjected to that described.

 

[RNB65]

Perhaps it's time to put this Korean peninsula issue to rest once and for all?

Before the NK's succeed in building a bomb that actually works (since this one appears to have been mostly a dud or a fake) and missiles that don't malfunction and crash harmlessly into the Sea of Japan?

Hit 'em, hit 'em hard, and don't stop hitting them until KJI and his band of cronies are all hanging from nooses.

That's my $.02.


--

 

[LightningJoe]

As long as America fights, it has no problem. It's trying to clean up afterward that causes us problems. We got stuck in Marshall Plan mode. It never occurs to us to crush the enemy and walk away. War with North Korea might be quick and easy as long as we stick with just fighting. If we try to turn them into South Korea afterward, well, get out your checkbook.

 

[richyoung]

Also, Chian Hai Shek and his party was not any better. China was in as bad shape economically/socially as N.Korea is now under his rule. Comparatively Mao was one step forward. Granted his reaction was rather extreme, as is with almost any follow up leader to a overly corrupt government, it at least got the country unified and moving under one rule.

1. North Korea is not currently in the throws of a long-running civil war inside its territory AND invasion by a world power - those will kinda depress your economy.

2. You might want to google "cultural revolution", and see how many tens of millions of people have died, before making such an egregiously incorrect statement.

 

[Borachon]

Look guys, I know this is serious business, but EMPs are not magic wands that cancel out technology and render us powerless.

That's exactly what they do actually.

http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has204000.000/has204000_0.HTM

But during the course of our early discussions when the Russians were acting very negatively toward America, a senior Russian, who at that time was the Chairman of the International Affairs Committee, the head of the Yabloko faction in Russia, a very dominant political party in Russia, and had been the former Soviet Ambassador to the U.S., Vladimir Lukin, made a statement that Roscoe and I could not believe.

He said, ''You know, you think you can tear people apart as you are doing in Serbia, but we have the ultimate ability to bring you down,'' and he referred to EMP.

So here was a high-level Russian official, someone who had been the ambassador to our country, mentioning the fact of something that we all knew that was a part of Russia's strategic nuclear doctrine that EMP has been, was and is a critical component.

Yes, I have at a number of hearings where it was appropriate to ask our military people how much of their warfighting capability would remain after a robust EMP laydown. Most frequently, the generals and the admirals turn to their staff who is behind them, and then they say, ''Gee, we will get back to you on the record for that.''
My colleague mentioned the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure that testified before us. General Marsh was here, and we asked him about EMP, and he said, ''Well, we did not think there was a very high probability that that was going to happen, and so we did not look at it anymore.''
One of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) agents who are knowledgeable in this area told me that several years ago he briefed one of the Army Joint Chiefs on the EMP threat, and, after the briefing, the General cussed him out. He said, ''Why did you do that? Why did you have to ruin my day? You know there is nothing I can do about that. Why did you want to make me feel bad?'' That is not the right response to this problem.

Any of you feeling better about the situation now?

Junyo said: Regardless, I doubt the B2s and B52 launched cruise missiles that would be sitting safely in the MidWest would be affected. The problem with screwing with a superpower is the same as a boxer facing a guy with 6 inch longer arms; you've got to deal with his reach. The Norks could disable every single weapon in the theater, and if we were sufficiantly agitated we could have our own nuke on target in 15-20 minutes.

Sure. But listen to what you just said. North Korea (or China versus Taiwan) launches a nuclear weapon OVER a terrority and detonates it. It destroys NO infrastructure, kills directly only those people that rely on electricity to survive (hospital patients, maybe some traffic accidents etc) and adds only a minimal amount of radiation to the planets atmosphere....and in retaliation you are suggesting that we launch a nuke in return. I assume you mean against their population centers...correct me if I'm wrong.
Launching a nuclear weapon against North Korea...when none of our bases, equipment, or other assets have been directly nuked will NOT make any friends in China...and maybe not in Russia...and possibly not in any other nation on the planet. Politically, it might not be possible to attack NK with a massive nuke bombardment because NK had not directly attacked your forces.
The US might feel constrained by political concerns to respond in kind. So we explode a nuke over NK and NK goes dark. What effect would that have on N. Korean forces? They aren't dependent on sophisticated laser range finders, and night vision equipment to the same level we are. Guns and cannons and Katyusha rockets will still work. Our stuff and the South Koreans might not.

Again, taken from the House briefing:

EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences and might result in the defeat of our military forces. EMP has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and, thus, to the very fabric of U.S. society, as well as to our ability to project influence and military power abroad.

The common element that can produce such an impact from EMP is primarily electronics, so pervasive in all aspects of our society and military, coupled through critical infrastructures. Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use and dependence on electronics continues to grow. The impact of EMP is asymmetric in relation to potential protagonists who are not as dependent as we are on modern electronics.

Axis-of-evil states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat to the United States and may also be unpredictable and difficult to deter.

Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variance of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter century.

The recent test was a low yeild device...interesting huh?

But we are prepared right? We had the Russians breathing on our necks for so many years we'd never forget that we might face a nuclear armed adversary, right?

Next view graph, please.

To turn to the military aspects of the EMP threat for a moment, the end of the Cold War relaxed the discipline for achieving EMP survivability within the Department of Defense and gave rise to the perception that an erosion of EMP survivability of military forces was an acceptable risk. Again, Congressman Bartlett cited specific examples of that in his experience.

EMP simulation and test facilities have been mothballed or dismantled, and research concerning EMP phenomena, hardening, design, testing and maintenance has been substantially decreased. However, the emerging threat environment, characterized by a wide spectrum of actors that include near peers, such as Russia, established nuclear powers, rogue nations, subnational groups and terrorist organizations that either now have access to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles or may have such access over the next 15 years have combined to place the risk of EMP attack and adverse consequences to the U.S. to a level that is not acceptable.
The situation of general purpose forces is more complex. Our increasing dependence on advanced electronic systems results in the potential for increased EMP vulnerability of our technologically advanced forces and, if unaddressed, make EMP employment by an adversary an attractive asymmetric option.

General LAWSON. Mr. Chairman, I think that if you talk about the military structure, we started in our deliberations and our actions in response to EMP threats with the strategic forces. I think we went from somewhere around a two or a three, and, over the years, we have built up both the knowledge and the capability so that our strategic forces I would assess somewhere between a seven and a eight.

I think, since that time, since the wall came down, as we got into the acquisition of newer forces and so on, there were some aspects of those newer forces that we continued with some pieces of the hardening programs, and we understood hardening all that well, but the attention given to hardening vis-a-vis other things that we wanted to put in terms of capability aboard those weapons systems, I guess I would say that we moved hardening from the absolutely required item in the development of new weapons systems to a nice-to-have kind of an idea.

You can read more about this at the link provided.

Okay....someone asked me HOW China would physically get to Taiwan without being blown away by the tremendous wealth of Taiwanese defenses. First off, let's take the US out of this fight. That makes it more interesting. If the US was fighting in North Korea, it might be hard to protect Taiwan at the same time...and would we want to? Do we want to make China POed at us while we were fighting on the Korean peninsula?

Maybe I better post this and continue later...I'm pooped.

 

[Atticus]

Question- Why is it the duty of the US to protect a wealthy, modern, industrialized nation like S. Korea from a starving,rag-tag nation like N. Korea anyway? As I recall, just a year or two ago S.Korean students were protesting for the Yankees to go home. Why the hell do we get ourselves into this crap?

 

[Art Eatman]

"Also, Chian Hai Shek and his party was not any better. China was in as bad shape economically/socially as N.Korea is now under his rule. Comparatively Mao was one step forward."

quatin, you reckon the Japanese invasion in the 1930s might have had anything to do with China's condition? By 1945, China was in pretty sad shape. Then came the civil war between Chiang and Mao. For all practical purposes, what Mao won might well have been called Trashville. Wars do that. I saw Manila in 1949; Hiroshima in 1950, and Seoul, Inchon and Yong Dong Po in 1954. I'm glad I can learn vicariously. First-hand learning about war obviously sucks.

Kim Jong Il inherited a country that had not been at war since 1953. What do you think is his excuse?

You might look into comparing what happened in politics and economics between mainland China and Taiwan, during the period 1949-1976, since both leaders were still at it in their respective domains.

I recommend Wikipedia, for Chiang Kai Shek and Mao Zedong.

Art

 

[Borachon]

Just the Chinese military transports...not counting merchant fleet ships (China has a LOT of merchant flagged vessals...2500 plus according to the old year 2000 labor report)

TYPE 072-III (YUTING-II CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP...7 ships
---The full displacement of the ship is estimated to be 5,000t, capable of carrying 250 troops and 10 tanks.

TYPE 072-II (YUTING CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP...11 ships
---250 troops; or 10 tanks; or 500t cargos

TYPE 072 (YUKAN CLASS) LARGE LANDING SHIP...7 ships
---450t and a maximum speed of 18kt. The ship could carry 250 troops and two tanks over a long distance to the remote islands in the South China Sea.


The New model, Yuhai Class Medium Landing Ship....10 ships...
---250 troops or 2 tanks

Type 079 (Yulian Class) Medium Landing Ship...31 ships
--5 main battle tanks, or 8 vehicles, or 4 trucks plus 4 towed 85mm cannon guns, or 200t cargo

Type 073-III (Yudeng Class) Medium Landing Ship....number unknown
---180 troops; or 6 main battle tanks (MBTs), or 8 light amphibious tanks, or 9 Armoured personnel carriers (APCs), or 12 vehicles; or 250 tonnes cargo beaching.

Type 073-II (Yudao Class) Medium Landing Ship....unknown

Qiongsha Class Troop Transport Ship...no amphibious capability...needs docks or small craft like Type 271 Utility Landing Craft to help.

Type 271 Utility Landing Craft....hundreds of these built.
Capacity: 100t cargo

Type 068/069 (Yuqing Class) Utility Landing Craft....10 left
100 troops...or 1 vehicle

Type 067 (Yunan Class) Utility Landing Craft...40 craft
1 main battle tank, or two light vehicles, or 46t cargo

Zubr Class (Project 1232.2) Air Cushion Landing Craft...trying to buy 8 from Russia...don't know if the deal has gone thru yet.
130t of cargo: three main battle tanks (MBTs) such as T-72, or eight BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), or ten BTR-70 wheeled armoured personnel carriers (APCs), or 360 fully equipped amphibious landing troops.

Okay that's enough...I'll do parachute and air force capabilities for landing paratroops and equipment another night.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

OK, lets assume that all of the Chinese amphib capability arrives safely at Taiwan, with no losses. We will further assume magical transports with no need to pack ammo or other logistics to support the assault. Finally we will assume that all ships have sufficient landing craft or RORO capability to make traditional harbors unnecessary.

1. 1,750 troops and 70 tanks.
2. 2,750 troops or 110 tanks
3. 1,750 troops and 14 tanks
4. 2,500 troops or 20 tanks
5. 155 tanks

No solid numbers on the rest; but I think we have enough to make the point... We'll just triple the above numbers to be on the safe side. That gives us 26,250 troops and ~700 tanks against an active duty Taiwanese army of 200,000 troops and another 500,000 reservists. This does not include Taiwan's 1,831 tanks of various vintages. Even if we assume each of China's 2,500 merchant ships can carry an additional 200 troops and logistics (as well as being magically able to land the equipment), the Chinese amry would be VASTLY outnumbered - and they can only get that good a deal if they totally sweep the skies and seas around Taiwan without losing any ships.

Here is a CATrg China-Taiwan study based heavily on the earlier RAND study.

I don't know where this idea that China is a legitimate threat to Taiwan in its current state comes from; but it has no basis in actual military ability. China would surely like to have that ability; but they don't - it isn't even close.

 

[plexreticle]

China wants North Korea to start a war about as much as the US wants it.

China is trying to develop it's economy plus the US owes China alot of money. The US is a better friend to China than North Korea will every be. China knows better than to screw that up over North Korea. This isn't 1960.

 

[lamazza]

Since the US hasn't won a war since WWII and the media won't let them win any wars-lots of crazies think it might be a good idea to declare war for benefits and money maybe?

 

[tanksoldier]

China can be "hostile" all it wants. They can't invade Taiwan, they don't have the sealift capability... and won't for many years. They also don't have the airpower and sea power to protect those future amphibs, and may never have it... if they do it will be far in the future. Don't forget, the actuall combat roops themselves is the SMALLEST factor in an amphib operation. Logistics and support takes up 7x the tonnage of the actual combat forces... fuel, ammo, food, etc... and the troops that move the stuff around.

The Chinese also can't sit back and rain artillery on Taiwan in hopes they will surrender... we can do the same to them with conventional tipped cruise missiles and naval gunfire.

No one in their right mind would actually INVADE China, but it is fairly easy to neutralize their naval and air capabilities. We wouldn't have to land any troops anywhere ourselves, just keep shooting the "fish in the barrel" that any Chinese invasion would be until they run out of amphibs and give up.

Now, if you share a LAND border with them you're up crap creek.

I was talking about the US, the US amphibious forces can transport 40k of troops at one time. This relates to how is the US going to stop China's hostility without an invasion?

 

[Gewehr98]

Borachon, you make it sound like the DoD just quit hardening systems against EMP.

As a newly-retired B-52H and RC/WC-135 crew dawg, I heartily disagree. My platforms were very much configured to withstand and continue functioning during and after EMP was produced by an airburst, even the high-altitude ones designed specifically to incapacitate electrical and electronic systems. They had to, even as protection from other onboard systems - a single B-52's ECM suite could by itself take out an entire regional air traffic control center, like Oakland Center, with a few selective bursts. Nor would I tell the folks in the design requirements that they forgot to include EMP hardening in the development of the B1, B2, F117, and F22 weapons systems. That doesn't even begin to address what means we had to protect ourselves against flash blindness from those same airbursts.

That would also negate ongoing work by Air Force Research Labs (aka Rome Labs) and what the folks at Sandia National Laboratories do out there on their test ramp. (As I watched an RAF L-1011 tanker undergo EMP tests inside their test array not more than a couple years ago...)

And that's just the Air Force side of the DoD equation. Suffice it to say not all of the lessons of the Cold War have been forgotten.

We (United States) need to keep China engaged in this one, and let them expend oodles of their own money and energy taking care of the junkyard dog in their back yard. There's probably something in Sun Tzu's Art of War that says exactly that.

 

[LeoC]

The evening news here in China has reported after the testing was announced that the Chinese Government is pretty pissed off at North Korea for blatantly ignoring their request to cease testing.

Recently they announced that China will impose economic sanctions on NK. How much is unknown

China has also said that military action against NK is "out of the question"... but we'll see. I think the ball is in North Korea's court. China is going to react to what crazy thing Kim Jong Il will do next.

I also agree that this one is all up to China. And although it's going to be unpleasant, I'm sure China wants to be the one to solve this. It would buy them a lot of credibility worldwide, which is what the Chinese government is striving for.

 

[gak]

Here they come...

 

[combatantr2]

My take...

1. China for now cannot mount a successful invasion on Taiwan. But still the same they'll side with NK on this. So, expect China on this one too. Oh I forgot Russia. A great possibility Russia will be involve by way of aiding these two countries. Oil, firepower, food, etc. Any attempt to block these resources will be considered an act of war against Russia. So Russia could be embroiled in this too militarily.
2. Obviously NK has already lost all food resources, so they could start a war anytime soon.
3. NK cannot sustain a long war. Correct. But they can still cause damage while they're at it. Expect a blitz type maneuver.
4. EMP has never been proven to be a military advantage so far in large scare military confrontation, except in the 24' tv series. But it would be interesting to finally see this one in actual.
5. If only Gen. McArthur was given the go to atomized North Korea, things would have been different today.

 

[Lou629]

5. If only Gen. McArthur was given the go to atomized North Korea, things would have been different today.

Your statement is correct about things being different today, that's for sure. What makes you think that this difference would be for the better? Think about this: History never reveals the consequences of its' alternatives.

The only thing we know for sure is that McA nuking NK around 1951 would mean that this year would mark the 55th anniversary of WWIII. The question is would any of us be here to care? The USA wasn't the only country with nukes back then either, and Russia and China were allies in those days.
Food for thought.

 

[Hugo]

China wants the whole continent to be nice and mellow for the Olympics in 2008 so they can show the world how great they are, and get more tourists. If Kim doesn't mellow out fast, I bet they have some aide, bodyguard, or general just waiting to assassinate Kim and take over, hopefully making a more mellow North Korea. I bet South Korea knows and expects this, if not having their own people ready to whack Kim, then their people in North Korea will help reunite both Koreas and this crap can end peacefully. South Korea is really, really sick of this crap. Probably will take a few years either way though.

 

[buzz_knox]

As far as China and armaments which would overwhelm our naval forces, they offered a helluva lot of money to the inventor of the Metalstorm gun. He turned them down. A conceptual use is for protection of naval vessels.

China's naval strategy for years has been to build up its force projection capability to a level it can stand up to and, in combination with land based aircraft, defeat an American task force. The Kursk was reportedly lost during a weapons excercise put on, in part, to show a visiting Chinese admiral what an Oscar could do. The Oscar, of course, was designed to destroy a carrier task force. The SS-N-22 Sunburn systems the Chinese are using was also designed for taking out carriers groups.

Lovely, isn't it, that it's range and speed were limited until the U.S. Navy redesigned it as a drone, and gave the improvements to the Russian manufacturer, who incorporated them into the next gen of the Sunburn?

 

[Keith Wheeler]

Borachon, you make it sound like the DoD just quit hardening systems against EMP.
As a newly-retired B-52H and RC/WC-135 crew dawg, I heartily disagree. My platforms were very much configured to withstand and continue functioning during and after EMP was produced by an airburst, even the high-altitude ones designed specifically to incapacitate electrical and electronic systems.

I've been on the design side of that stuff. Gewehr98 speaks the truth. Yes indeed folks, us "nerds" developing military hardware know about electro-magnetic pulse. If it needs to be rad-hard, it's rad-hard; if it's at risk for EMP is designed to deal with it.

An "EMPty" bomb or other electro-magnetic weapon is no more a "magic wand" than a nuke is. Dangerous? Sure. Powerful? You bet. Magic? Nope.

Unless you can explain to me why even the most sophisticated of military electronics still have a few discrete transistors, located at the edges of the board, then don't go on about how some wonder weapon is gonna turn off all our stuff. We're fighting in the real world, not against sci-fi toasters.